Dublin Bay South - Millward Brown · 2016-02-25 · 6. Dublin Bay South has the capacity to throw...

1.

Dublin Bay

South

Dublin Bay South Constituency Opinion Poll: February 2016 - for Publication on 17th February 2016

41113688/Paul Moran

2.

Dublin Bay

South

Dublin Bay South Constituency

3.

Introduction

A Constituency Poll was conducted in Dublin Bay South on behalf of The

Irish Independent to be published on 17th February 2016.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror

the 18+ population profile in the constituency.

Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in Dublin Bay South.

498 Interviews were carried out between 12th – 16th February 2016

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 4.4%.

4.

The survey results presented here are derived from

The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown

Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of

voters representative of the Dublin Bay South

electoral area - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in

the home at 46 sampling points. The margin of error

for this opinion poll is +/- 4.4%.

Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 12th

and 16th February 2016

The poll was conducted in accordance with the

guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and

Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published

on condition that due acknowledgement is given to

Millward Brown and The Irish Independent.

© Millward Brown & The Irish Independent 2016.

Introduction

POLL

5.

Dublin Bay

South

The Results

6.

Dublin Bay South has the capacity to throw up

surprises

Conducted between last Friday and Tuesday of this week, this latest Millward Brown constituency poll, focusing on

the re-drawn region known as Dublin Bay South, offers confirmation of some assumptions, but also throws up some

intriguing propositions.

In the previous election in 2011, Dublin South East was a stronghold of the Government parties, with the

constituency being divided up by Fine Gael and Labour. Of course, times have changed. Ruairi Quinn is not

contesting this election, leaving the remaining Labour vote to his party colleague, Kevin Humphreys.

All eyes however, are on Lucinda Creighton’s battle against her former colleagues in Fine Gael. But there are other

skirmishes at play.

Talking a step back, there are several high profile candidates in this field. Eamon Ryan, leader of the Green Party

and Jim O’Callaghan (FF) will be looking to restore some pride to their respective parties, if not more.

Looking at the headline results, Eoghan Murphy, as expected, seems certain to retain his seat in this prosperous

constituency. When Undecideds are excluded, he reaches the quota of 20pc. His running mate, Kate O’Connell

gains the nod from one in ten, giving the Senior Government party one-and-a-half quotas from the outset.

Arguably the dark horse in this race is Sinn Fein’s Chris Andrews (formally of the Fianna Fáil parish). Sinn Fein had

been targeting this area as a potential gain for the party, and his first preference vote of 17pc is impressive.

Andrews was the poll-topper in the Local Elections of 2014, and it seems that his momentum is continuing. There

has always been the potential for a more left-wing seat in this constituency, with a large inner-city vote.

On the basis of these results, it is possible that Andrews could deliver. Andrews will need to ensure that he

maximises his first preference vote – he is less transfer friendly than others, with his party being the most toxic in

this constituency (60pc overall stating they would not vote for Sinn Fein). Any slip in his first preference could

damage him disproportionately.

7.

Dublin Bay South has the capacity, as always, to throw

up surprises (Cont’d)

Notwithstanding this, that is arguably two of the four seats accounted for. So what of the other contenders?

Kevin Humphreys is polling relatively well at this stage. He gains 13pc of the first preference vote, and should be in

the mix at the business end of the count. That said, Labour are a far cry from the 25pc first preferences that they

received in 2011.

Lucinda Creighton topped the poll five years ago with 19pc of the vote. Walking away from Fine Gael was always

going to be a risky strategy. There is a finite number of voters who will vote for Fine Gael; Lucinda’s issue was

always going to be how many could she carry with her when she defected to set up Renua Ireland.

In addition, this is one of the most liberal constituencies in the country. Lucinda’s stance over the Protection of Life

during Pregnancy bill, whilst laudable on its principles, may not resonate with all who previously voted for her

(regardless of the 46pc overall who feel she did the right thing in resigning the party). On the basis of these results,

she will be in a dogfight for one of the last two seats.

Whilst she attracts a similar proportion of first preference votes to Humphreys, what may go against Creighton is

her ability to attract second preference votes. She gains just 6pc of them, compared to Humphreys’ 15pc. This

should be enough to get him over the line.

If these results are to be replicated on 26th, it may well be a straightforward shoot-out between Creighton, Jim

O’Callaghan and Kate O’Connell for the final seat. It is instructive to note that the pattern of transfers from FG to

Renua is low – yet those voting for Renua are more likely to consider FG within their voting repertoire.

Eamon Ryan will be somewhat disappointed by these results. The European Elections signalled a potential

resurgence in his fortunes. But that was in a larger constituency, and with voters having somewhat different

motivations for choosing their candidate. He will need to focus intensely over the next week or so if he is to put

himself back into contention.

8.

Dublin Bay South has the capacity, as always, to throw

up surprises (Cont’d)

However, for all of these candidates lagging behind, they can take some solace from this poll. It is noticeable that

one in seven (15pc) are still undecided on how they will vote. In a constituency of such tight margins, this could

make all the difference. The next week should see the ante being upped considerably, and those voters yet to be

convinced in Dublin Bay South may have the potential to become kingmakers.

9.

Dublin Bay South Constituency -

First preference (incl/excl Undecideds)

17

14

11

11

10

8

6

4

2

2

1

-

*

*

15

First Preference Voting Intentions incl. don’t knows

%

(FG) Eoghan Murphy

(SF) Chris Andrews

(Ren) Lucinda Creighton

(Lab) Kevin Humphreys

(FF) Jim O’Callaghan

(FG) Kate O’Connell

(GP) Eamon Ryan

(AAA/PbP) Annette Mooney

(Ind) Mannix Flynn

(SD) Glenna Lynch

(Ind) William DJ Gorman

(Ind) John Dominic Keigher

(Ind) Alan MacStiofain

(Ind) Eoin Tierney

Don't know

Quota is 20%

First Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don’t knows

(n=422) %

Base: All Dublin Bay South 18+ (498)

20

17

13

13

11

10

7

4

2

2

1

-

-

-

(FG) Eoghan Murphy

(SF) Chris Andrews





(GP) Eamon Ryan


(Ind) Mannix Flynn

(SD) Glenna Lynch




(Ind) Eoin Tierney

10.

First Preference Party Support – Dublin Bay South

Constituency (incl/excl Undecideds)

10%

25%

15% 3%

6%

11%

14%

2% 11% 4%

Independents

12th – 16th February Incl. DK

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael Labour

Sinn Féin

The Green Party

Don’t know

Including Don’t Knows

Social Democrats


Renua Ireland

AAA/PbP

11%

30%

3% 7%

13%

17%

2% 13% 4%

Independents

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

The Green Party

Social Democrats

Renua Ireland

AAA/PbP

12th – 16th February Excl. DK

Excluding Don’t Knows

(n=422)

11.

Dublin Bay South Constituency-

Where does the second preference go?

Second Preference Voting Intentions incl. don’t knows

(n=424) %

Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote

Second Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don’t knows

(n=330) %

15

13

12

8

8

5

5

4

4

4

2

1

1

*

19


(FG) Eoghan Murphy



(GP) Eamon Ryan

(SF) Chris Andrews


(Ind) Mannix Flynn

(SD) Glenna Lynch




(Ind) Eoin Tierney


Don't know

19

17

15

10

10

6

6

6

5

5

*

-

-

-


(FG) Eoghan Murphy



(GP) Eamon Ryan

(SF) Chris Andrews


(Ind) Mannix Flynn

(SD) Glenna Lynch





(Ind) Eoin Tierney

12.

Including Don’t Knows

(n=424)

Excluding Don’t Knows

(n=330)

Second Preference Party Support –

Dublin Bay South Constituency


8%

28%

19%

8%

8%

12%

5% 4% 5% 4%

Independents

12th – 16th February Incl. DK

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

The Green Party

Don’t know

Social Democrats

Renua Ireland

AAA/PbP

10%

36% 6%

10%

15%

6% 5% 6% 5%

Independents

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

The Green Party

Social Democrats Renua

Ireland

AAA/PbP

12th – 16th February Excl. DK

13.

First Preference vote X Demographics

25

14

11

10

10

6

3

3

2

%


Fine Gael

Sinn Féin

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Renua Ireland

Green Party

Independents

AAA/PbP

Social Democrats

GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS

Male

%

Female

%

<35

%

35-54

%

55+

%

ABC1

%

C2DE

%

25 25 21 29 24 31 18

17 12 16 15 13 7 25

11 11 12 11 11 12 10

9 11 6 6 15 7 14

10 11 7 12 11 12 8

6 5 6 7 5 9 2

3 2 5 3 1 3 2

5 2 4 2 5 3 4

1 3 1 3 1 2 1

14.

Where do those giving a first preference allocate their

second preference?

Second Preference

%

Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote

* Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low (below 50)

24

10

7

7

6

4

4

4

4

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Independents

Green Party

Sinn Féin

Social Democrats

Renua Ireland

AAA/PbP

FIRST PREFERENCE

Fine Gael

%

Sinn Féin

%

Labour

%

Renua

Ireland

%

Fianna Fáil*

%

48 4 42 31 13

18 13 - 6 15

9 10 2 17 -

2 15 - 10 13

9 4 15 13 4

1 - 9 6 8

1 6 5 2 4

5 3 7 - 15

1 15 2 2 2

15.

Over two in five are satisfied with the Government’s

performance, ahead of the national average

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 56

ABs 53

Supporters of FG 71

Supporters of Labour 60

53%

41%

6%

Don’t know (9%)

Dissatisfied (62%) Satisfied

(29%)

HIGHER AMONG %

DEs 69

Supporters of FF 69

Supporters of SF 90

Two in Five in Dublin Bay South are

happy with the current performance

( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)


16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 49

ABs 51

Supporters of FG 68


58%

37%

6% Don’t know (11%)

Dissatisfied (62%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 18-34 64

C2DEs 70

Supporters of SF 93

Supporters of FF 73



17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Joan Burton

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 47

ABs 45

Supporters of FG 52


59%

34%

7%

Don’t know (16%)

Dissatisfied (62%)

Satisfied (22%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 18-34 66

DEs 72

Supporters of FF 67

Supporters of SF 90



18.

45%

38%

16%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 49

ABs 45

Supporters of FF 77

Supporters of Renua

Ireland 52

Don’t know (25%)

Dissatisfied (48%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 57

DEs 50

Supporters of SF 68




19.

64% 23%

14%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Gerry Adams

Don’t know (18%)

Dissatisfied (55%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

C2DEs 36

Supporters of SF 79

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 75

ABs 83

Supporters of FG 84


Supporters of Renua

Ireland 83



20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua

Ireland?

Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton

40% 35%

25%

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 51

ABs 44

Supporters of FF 44

Supporters of SF 50


HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 40

Supporters of Renua

Ireland 94

Don’t know (43%)

Dissatisfied (42%)

Satisfied (16%)



21.

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters

%

68 60 25 6 38

52 65 29 3 31

41 42 77 21 52

2 16 23 79 12

36 20 33 26 94

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

SATISFIED

DISSATISFIED

37%

34%

38%

23%

35%

Enda Kenny (27)

Joan Burton (22)

Michéal Martin (27)

Gerry Adams (27)

Lucinda Creighton (16)

Total

58%

59%

45%

64%

40%

24 35 73 93 62

39 25 67 90 67

40 49 15 68 38

84 73 67 10 83

36 56 44 50 4

Enda Kenny (62)

Joan Burton (62)

Michéal Martin (48)

Gerry Adams (51)

Lucinda Creighton (42)



22. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Sinn Féin are by far the most toxic party in Dublin Bay South

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER

30%

27%

29%

60%

20%

24%

12%

15%

Fine Gael (34)

Labour (31)

Fianna Fáil (24)

Sinn Féin (37)

Renua Ireland (12)

AAA-People Before

Profit (16)

Social Democrats (9)

Green Party (19)

Total



Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters

%

- 7 50 82 23

8 - 38 68 35

21 40 - 57 10

87 71 60 - 85

18 47 8 24 -

35 45 19 7 33

17 16 6 10 12

12 9 17 26 13

23. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

How certain are voters in their convictions?

Most party supporters are comfortable in their decision

Absolutely certain

30 17

40

21 35

60 75

44 71

50

6 6 11 6 12 3 5

3 2

Don’t know - 2 - - 2

Net Score (Any confident minus Any

doubters)

80 86 68 84 72

Pretty certain

Some reservations Not at all certain

Base: All Dublin Bay South Voters

Fine Gael Supporters

(126) %

Fianna Fáil Supporters

(48) %

Labour Supporters

(55) %

Sinn Fein Supporters

(72) %

Renua Ireland Supporters

(52) %

90%

10%

92%

6%

84%

16%

92%

8%

85%

13% -

24. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

Health services is the number one issue for a quarter in Dublin Bay South, with economic issues also to the fore

24%

21%

16%

13%

6%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

1%

*

* Includes all other parties ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)


1st Mention

Health Services/Hospitals (37)

Management of the economy (11)

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing

(9)

Crime/Law and Order (10)

Unemployment/jobs (13)

Water Charges (5)

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent

(7)

Childcare (3)

Abortion (1)

Something else (1)

Issues within my own constituency (1)

Don't know (2)

25.

Health Services/Hospitals

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing

Management of the economy

Crime/Law and Order

Unemployment/jobs

Water Charges

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent

Childcare

Abortion

Something else

Issues within my own constituency

Don't know

Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health remains paramount, but other issues become more prominent

24%

16%

21%

13%

6%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

1%

*

26%

17%

9%

11%

12%

8%

5%

5%

3%

2%

1%

1

18%

18%

7%

13%

11%

10%

5%

5%

3%

3%

2%

3%

1st Mention

2nd

Mention 3rd

Mention

Any Mention

67

51

37

36

30

23

14

13

10

8

4

4


26.

41%

12%

6%

12%

7%

13%

9%

Trust Most x Party Support

Trust

Most Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Renua

Ireland

Supporters

(126) (48) (55) (72) (52)

% % % % %

Fine Gael (24) 87 19 45 7 42

Fianna Fáil (17) 2 69 - 7 17

Labour (3) 2 - 31 1 -

Sinn Fein (13) - 2 5 58 -

Somebody else (7) - - 2 4 15

None of them (16) 7 8 9 10 13

Don’t know (19) 2 2 7 13 12

Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

Fine Gael is the party most trusted to manage the economy,

particularly amongst its own supporters


27.

Trust Least x Party Support

Trust Least Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Renua Ireland

Supporters

(126) (48) (55) (72) (52)

% % % % %

Fine Gael (24) - 23 5 51 12

Fianna Fáil (17) 7 2 7 14 4

Labour (3) 4 21 4 15 12

Sinn Fein (13) 80 48 71 7 67

Somebody else (7) 5 - 5 - -

None of them (16) 1 2 - 3 4

Don’t know (19) 3 4 7 10 2

Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

A majority trust Sinn Féin least to manage public finances

16%

9%

8%

53%

3%

4%

7%


28.

Lucinda Creighton is the most polarising of the outgoing TDs

in Dublin Bay South

Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has

been most effective in your constituency?

Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been

least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

20

14

14

14

17

21

Lucinda Creighton

Kevin Humphreys

Eoghan Murphy

Ruairi Quinn

None of them

Don't know

Least Effective TD in Dublin Bay South

%


16

12

11

5

28

29

Lucinda Creighton

Kevin Humphreys

Ruairi Quinn

Eoghan Murphy

None of them

Don't know

Most Effective TD in Dublin Bay South

%

29.

Most effective TD x Party Support

Most Effective TD in Dublin Bay South

%

20

14

14

14

17

21

Lucinda Creighton

Kevin Humphreys

Eoghan Murphy

Ruairi Quinn

None of them

Don't know


Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency?

Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Renua Ireland

Supporters

% % % % %

13 19 15 5 69

5 15 19 51 2

39 13 3 5 2

19 13 6 22 6

10 15 40 4 4

14 27 17 13 17

30.

Least effective TD x Party Support

Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?


Least Effective TD in Dublin Bay South

%

16

12

11

5

28

29

Lucinda Creighton

Kevin Humphreys

Ruairi Quinn

Eoghan Murphy

None of them

Don't know

Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Renua Ireland

Supporters

% % % % %

21 15 10 38 2

13 21 17 - 27

10 10 13 11 17

3 8 6 5 6

21 33 25 22 25

33 13 31 24 23

31. Q. Do you believe that Lucinda Creighton was correct or not to leave Fine Gael and form her own party?

Was Lucinda Creighton correct to leave Fine Gael or not? Nearly half believe she was

29%

46%

24%

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 37

ABs 47

Supporters of FG 54


HIGHER AMONG %

Age 35-44 51

DEs 56

Supporters of Renua

Ireland 75

Supporters of SF 61

Supporters of FF 60

Don’t know

No

Yes


32.

A sizeable minority (37%) believe that TDs’ pay is just

about right

Q. In your opinion, do you think TDs are paid too much, too little, or about the right amount?

58%

37%

1% 2% 2%

Too much

Too little

About right

It depends Don’t know

HIGHER AMONG %

C2DEs 80

Supporters of FF 67

Supporters of SF 82


HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 40

ABs 55


Supporters of Renua

Ireland 40

33.

Two thirds believe gender quotas are a good idea and there’s a

strong desire for a directly elected Lord Mayor

Q. Finally, I am going to read out a list of statements that have been made about politics in Ireland. How

strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements….

41 37

63

36

22 21

14

15

8 13

9

16

8 7

2

9

18 18 7

22

2 3 4 2 1 * 1 *

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neither

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Don’t know It depends

Gender Quotas are a good idea

%

There should be a formal dress code in the Dail

%

Dublin should have a Lord

Mayor directly elected

%

Having a bar in the Dail

is inappropriate %


63%

26%

58%

25%

77%

9%

51%

31%

34.

Dublin Bay

South

41113688/Paul Moran

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran

[email protected] 086 341 1970

Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie

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Dublin Bay South - Millward Brown · 2016-02-25 · 6. Dublin Bay South has the capacity to throw...

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