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Market Research
21/01/2013
EUR
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Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMTDominant Events for the Euro
Yellow Area
January 14
06:00 - 16:00
Eurozone Industrial
Producon [link]
Chicago FedPresident Speech
[link]
Turquoise Area
January 15
01:00 - 21:00
U.K. CPI [link]
Eurozone Trade
Balance [link]
U.S. Retail Sales
[link]
U.S. PPI [link]
Blue Area
January 16
06:00 - 16:00
Japanese
Consumer
Condence [link]
Swiss Retail Sales
[link]
Eurozone CPI [link]
U.S. CPI [link]
Purple Area
January 17
07:00 - 19:00
Swiss PPI [link]
U.S. Housing Starts
[link]
U.S.
Unemployment
Claims [link]
U.S. Philly Fed
Manufacturing
Index[link]
Orange Area
January 18
07:00 - 17:00
Japanese Industrial
Producon [link]
U.K. Retail Sales[link]
U.S. UoM
Consumer
Senment[link]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19460/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19461/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19462/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19398/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19406/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/housing-starts-in-u-s-jump-more-than-forecast-to-four-year-high.htmlhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19408/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19351/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19350/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19353/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19354/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19298/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-15012013-AP/EN/6-15012013-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19299/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19245/http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market_news/Market-News-and-Research/19244/mailto:[email protected]7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf
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Relative Currency Strength
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT
Currency Index Change
Days EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD SEK NZD5 0.44% 0.96% 0.07% -1.06% -1.71% 0.69% 0.08% -0.22% 0.78%
20 1.69% 1.53% -6.92% -1.48% -1.49% 1.85% 1.20% 1.10% 1.80%130 7.42% -1.43% -16.89% -0.25% 3.45% -0.67% 0.28% 5.09% 2.89%
Ap
preciaon
Base
De
preciaon
Yens precipitous depreciaon has created a
favourable for the Euros value environment,
being that demand for the single European
currency was also spurred by a successful bond
aucon in Spain and an increased chance of
Portugal returning back to open internaonal
debt market. However, the other majorcurrencies remained impervious to these events
and traded sideways during the whole week.
Surprisingly, even U.S. unemployment claims and
building permits failed to evoke strong changes in
exchange rates that remained relavely sll. The
only notable event was a detachment process of
the Euro and Swiss Franc values, lower
correlaon between which is expected to become
a new characterisc of the market.
ECBs decision not to encourage lending in the
Eurozone by keeping the key interest rate unchangedhas lost its relevance over the weekend. The Euro
thus slowly weakened amid soer data on the bloc,
while the market was awaing another strong signal,
absence of which accounts for a standsll unl Jan
17. The consolidaon phase of the prices was then
disturbed by corroboraon of the implied by the
Japanese PM easing measures, announcement of
which is most likely to take place during the nearest
publicaon of the BoJ monetary policy statement on
Jan 22.
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Volatility
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, January 21, 201316:30 GMT
Elevated Volality (% of the observed period)Market EUR/
USDUSD/
JPYGBP/
USDAUD/
USDUSD/
CADUSD/
CHFEUR/
JPYEUR/
GBPEUR/
CHFUSD/
SEKNZD/
USD55 43 60 42 30 17 61 66 37 92 33 25
Market EUR/USD
USD/
JPYGBP/
USDAUD/
USDUSD/
CADUSD/
CHFEUR/
JPYEUR/
GBPEUR/
CHFUSD/
SEKNZD/
USDMax 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 4.3 2 3.9Min 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Average 1 1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 2 0.9 0.9
Volality Index (for the observed period)
Turbulent
Normal
Tr
anquil
Among the currency pairs studied we may spot a
strong polarizaon in terms of sensivity to
dierent events, since USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/
JPY and EUR/CHF were turbulent for more than a
half of the me. However, the rest of the
constuent of the DBVI remained more or less
tranquil, without constantly exceeding theirnormal pace of change.
The highest volality comparavely to its
historical changeability was demonstrated by
EUR/CHF, surpassing it 4.3 mes. However, the
second more responsive currency pair proved to
be NZD/USD, as New Zealand GDP gure released
on Jan 17 has missed expectaons.
Previously we have marked the similaries of
volalies in the market and in EUR/USD currencypair, as their peaks, troughs and general levels
largely coincided in the past, something that has not
been observed in the last week. The changeability
and therefore the range of EUR/USDs volality index
has greatly increased, with the most recent
maximum and minimum values being 2.8 and 0.4,
respecvely, whereas the same measures of
Dukascopy Bank Volality Index were 1.6 and 0.4,
even though the averages were exactly the same1.
This could be aributed to the fact that the Euro hasnow lost its inuence on the Swiss Franc and EUR/
USD is no longer a reliable proxy to markets
variability.
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Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Currency SignificanceMonday, January 21, 2013
16:30 GMT
Days EURJPY EURGBP EURCHF EURAUD EURCAD EURNZD EURSEK5 0.73 0.63 0.39 0.75 0.85 0.54 0.32
20 0.67 0.65 0.27 0.69 0.78 0.45 0.27130 0.74 0.67 0.27 0.5 0.68 0.39 0.12
Average Correlaon Coecient (with EURUSD)
One of the tendencies that have been observed
lately is the sharply rising interdependences
between EUR/USD and EUR crosses with
commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD),
which were already signicant before, but now
are even of a greater weight and concern to those
who seek to reduce risk but at the same meremain exposed to the Euro. The similar trend is
observed among all of the EUR crosses, but to a
considerably smaller extent. Accordingly, these
currency pairs provide more modest benets of
diversicaon than they formerly did. The lowest
average 50-hour rolling correlaon was recorded
between EUR/JPY and EUR/SEK0.12.
As indicated by the average correlaon coecient,
the importance of the Euro has been declining fromthe elevated levels, but managed to stay near 0.4
with mixed success. Consequently, the currency is
highly unlikely to exhibit the impact of the same
strength seen on Jan 10 and Jan 11, but is
nevertheless inuenal in the context of the foreign
exchange market. This is especially noceable in
EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD currency pairs that
historically have been closely linked to EUR/USD.
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Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Confidence Intervals for Next 24 HoursMonday, January 21, 2013
16:30 GMT
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7/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Interquarle Range
Median
Relave Density
ValuesofObservatons
Violin PlotViolin Plot is a combinaon of a Box Plot
and rotated Kernel Density Plot
EXPLANATIONS
MethodologiesVolality Index
Condence Interval
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Confidence%20Interval.pdfhttp://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2012/04/19/Volatility%20Index.pdfmailto:[email protected]7/28/2019 Dukascopy market research.pdf
8/8Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
DisclaimerEverything in this arcle, including opinions and gures, is provided for informaonal purposes only and may not be interpreted as nancial advice or solicitaon of
products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this arcle. Financial gures indicated in this
arcle have not been veried by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the arcle, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy
group.
Dukascopy group waive any and all warranes, express or implied, regarding, but without limitaon to, warranes of the merchantability or the tness for aparcular purpose, with respect to all informaon in this arcle. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequenal,
conngent or any other damages sustained in connecon with the use of this arcle.
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