Dulles Metro Extension Phase I: Tyson’s Corner Martene Bryan Luis Serna Matt Zarit.

Dulles Metro ExtensionPhase I: Tyson’s Corner

Martene BryanLuis SernaMatt Zarit

Dulles Metro ExtensionPhase I: Tyson’s Corner

Introduction Cost

Benefits Sensitivity Analysis

Conclusion

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

WMATA was created by an Interstate Compact to plan, develop, build, finance and operate transportation system in the region.

1967

Construction begins

1969

First phase of Metrorail began operation

1976

Original 103-mile network is completed

2001

Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf

The Current Metrorail System

Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm

Metrorail is a crucial part of the DC region

Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf

Serves 3.5 million people 195 million trips were taken in 2005

Creating $522 million in passenger revenue

According to WMATA, 42% of those working in the center core, which includes DC and parts of Arlington County use mass transit.

WMATA receives funding from various sources in the region


D.C Montgomery Prince George's AlexandriaRail

Base Allocation 44,198,345$ 23,290,589$ 22,136,308$ 5,770,593$ Max Fare Subsidy 258,595 2,070,527 903,504 103,721

Total 44,456,940$ 25,361,116$ 23,039,812$ 5,874,314$ Percentage of TotalRegional Subsidy 34.03% 19.41% 17.64% 4.50%

Arlington Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church

Base Allocation 12,480,986$ 380,370$ 17,637,677$ 342,739$ Max Fare Subsidy 71,711 39,559 950,055 11,953

Total 12,552,697.00$ 419,929.00$ 18,587,732.00$ 354,692.00$ Percentage of TotalRegional Subsidy 10% 0% 14% 0.27%

Metrorail serves a 1,500 square-mile area


The Dulles Metro Extension will connect the western part of Fairfax County and Loudoun County to the rail system


23 miles extension would extend from West Falls Church Metro station to a new line to the airport in two phases. Our analysis focuses on Phase I of

construction to Tyson’s Corner, VA

The New Metrorail System

Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/Dec8/project_overview/images/5_systemMap.jpg

Partners of Phase I

Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/about/partners.cfm

WMATA Virginia Department of Rail and Public

Transportation Dulles Transit Partners, LLC Federal Transit Administration Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Virginia Department of Transportation Fairfax County Loudoun County

Phase I: Silver Line


Design Build Agreement

May 2006

Full Funding Agreement

October 2006

Construction Starts

December 2006

Revenue Operations Begins

2011

Phase I: Tyson’s Corner

Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/tysons_map_large_mar06.pdf

Costs

Capital costs Operating costs Funding Government revenue lost Lack of consistent funding

Projected Capital Costs

(in millions)

Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

FTA Standard Cost Category Total 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Guideway and Track Elements 362.80$ -$ -$ -$ 51.60$ 88.50$ 109.40$ 93.90$ 19.30$ -$ -$ Stations, Stops, Terminals, Intermodal 268.70$ -$ -$ -$ 25.30$ 65.30$ 80.70$ 83.10$ 14.30$ -$ -$ Yards, Shops, Admin/Support Facilities 57.20$ -$ -$ -$ 5.40$ 13.90$ 17.10$ 14.70$ 6.10$ -$ -$ Sitework and Special Conditions 51.00$ -$ -$ -$ 32.80$ 18.20$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ ROW, Land, Existing Improvements 88.70$ -$ -$ 52.60$ 36.10$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Systems 172.70$ -$ -$ -$ 24.40$ 33.50$ 43.10$ 44.40$ 27.40$ -$ -$ Vehicles 189.50$ -$ -$ -$ 1.60$ 18.10$ 26.60$ 21.80$ 102.60$ 12.50$ 6.30$ Soft Costs 265.10$ 9.40$ 24.10$ 24.90$ 38.40$ 39.60$ 46.20$ 42.00$ 35.60$ 5.90$ -$ Contingency 65.80$ -$ -$ -$ 6.10$ 12.70$ 16.30$ 16.80$ 13.80$ -$ -$ Total Project Costs 1,521.50$ 9.40$ 24.10$ 77.50$ 221.70$ 289.80$ 339.40$ 316.70$ 219.10$ 18.40$ 6.30$

Projected Operating Costs

Projected at $47.47 million per year Assumption: 3.0% inflation

(in millions)

Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Operating Costs 47.47 48.89 50.36 51.87 53.43 55.03 56.68 58.38Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Operating Costs 60.13 61.94 63.80 65.71 67.68 69.71 71.80

Funding Sources


Total Funds ($million) Percent of TotalFunding Source5309 New Starts 760.5$ Total Federal 760.5$ 50.0%

Virginia Transportation Act of 2000 74.3$ Dulles Toll Road Revenues 161.2$ Commonwealth of Virginia Bonds 145.0$ Total State 380.5$ 25.0%

Dulles Rail Transportation Improvement District 380.5$ Total Local 380.5$ 25.0%

Total Capital Costs 1,521.5$

Federal Funding

Section 5309 Federal Grants Program:Designated for transit projects in

urban areas with a population over 50,000

The federal money must be matched by local and/or state funds

Source: NCDOT “Section 5309 Grant Program” http://www.ncdot.org/transit/transitnet/PublicInfo/TransitFinance/Grants/5309.html.

State Funding

$74.3 million of taxpayer money Revenues from the Dulles Toll Road

are estimated to bring in $161.2 million

$145 million in bonds


Local Funding

Fairfax County Transportation Improvement District Temporary tax area in Fairfax County and

the Town of Herndon on commercial and industrial properties

Landowners will be charged between 22 and 29 cents for every $100 of assessed property

Expected to produce $380.5 million


Lost Revenues

Increased use of public transit will decrease the amount of cars on the road

Gas taxes:Virginia: 18%District of Columbia: 20%Federal: 18%

Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx & http://www.gaspricewatch.com/usgastaxes.asp

Lost Revenues

Estimated net reduction in vehicle miles traveled: 251,600,000 in 2011

Decreasing to 153,800,000 by 2025 Assumptions:

20 miles per gallon2/3 of people get their gas in Virginia1/3 of people get their gas in D.C.

Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf

Estimated Losses

Average losses per yearVirginia: $1,467,548District of Columbia: $405,400Federal government: $1,864,840

Total government loss from reduction in revenues:

$3,737,788

Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx

Other Funding Problem

No dedicated source of funding for operating costsFederal money cannot pay for

operating costsAbout half of operating costs are paid

for by fares, parking and advertisingThe shortfall is made up by affected

jurisdictions in Maryland, Virginia and DC on a year-by-year basis

Source: Puentes, Robert. “Washington Metro: Deficits by Design.” The Brookings Institute June 2004. http://www.brookings.edu/urban/publications/20040603_puentes.htm.

The Benefits of riding the metro

Commuter Savings Social Benefits Jobs to the Region

To calculate commuter savings, we used some assumptions

Each new rider would have driven The avg. # of miles traveled per day

(20) – The distance from Tyson’s Corner to L’Enfant

The avg. miles per gallon (20) – The average between a 4 cylinder sedan and an SUV

Opportunity Cost ($30.43/hour) – The average wage in the DC Metro area

Sources: http://www.mapquest.com; http://www.toyota.com/4runner/specs.html; http://www.toyota.com/images/vehicles/2007/camry/specs.pdf; Arlington VA June 2005 Employment & Wages Report

Assumptions for commuter savings are based on the avg. # of miles traveled & hours driven per year

Days in a Year 365 Weekend days In a year (For calendar 2006) 106 Holidays/Vacation 14 Total Commuting Days 245 Commute Hours Per Day 1 Miles Per day 20 Gallons of Gas Per Day @20 miles per gallon 1.00 Cost per gallon 3.00 Cost of gas per day 3.00 Assumption: Opportunity Cost/Hour 30.43

The average new metro rider saves more then $10k/year in driving cost

Opportunity Costs 7,455.35 Gas $ 735.00 Total Monetary Costs 8,190.35 Extra Wear and Tear on Car per [email protected] per mile 2,180.50

Total Cost 10,370.85

Source: Metro Cost Caculator http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

The metro costs to the average new rider are considerably less

Total Commuting Days 245Cost Per Day 9.25Metro Cost per year 2266.25Avg vehicle cost per day 327.08

Total Costs 2,593.33

Source: Metro Fares & Hours: http://www.wmata.com/riding/hours_fares.cfm

The total benefit for each commuter in saved driving cost is enormous 10,370 – 2,593 = $7,777 per new rider # of projected new riders in year 2011

= 31,400 Total Benefit in 2011 = 31,400* 7,777 244.2 million This benefit increases every year as

ridership of the metro extension increases

Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 3, Appendeix C.” Summary of Effects http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/EA_Feb2006/DullesEA_AppendixC.pdf

To calculate social benefits, we looked at 3 quantifiable variables Crash Avoidance Pavement Deterioration Social Cost of Automobile Pollution

To determine social benefits, we examined net vehicle miles traveled reduced Projected net reduction in vehicle miles

traveled in 2011 is 251.6 million (FTA, 2004)

Projected net reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2025 is 153.8 million

The average reduction in vehicle miles traveled during this time was 6.99 million per year

Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 10: Evaluation of Alternatives Carried Forward.” Final Environmental Impact Statement http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf.

To determine social benefits, their monetary value per automobile mile traveled

Social benefit per mile of crash avoidance is 1.19 cents

Social benefit per mile of pavement deterioration is .1 cents

Social cost per mile of auto pollution is 1.33 cents

Source: Federal Highway Administration.” 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, 2000 Addendum http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/hcas/addendum.htm.

The combined social benefits are not substantial, but are significant

Year 2011Net Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled (2011)* 251,600,000 Crash Avoidance at 1.19 cents per mile 2,994,040 Pavement Deterioration at .1 cents per mile 251,600 Social Cost of Automobile Pollution@ 1.33 cents per mile 3,346,280

Assumptions were also necessary for determining job increase benefits Jobs without rail for 2025 Job Increase rate with rail at metro

stations only for 2025 Average Salary for new jobs -

$12/hour assuming most will be service jobs

Employment is full time non-seasonal

The job benefit toward to the regional economy is significant, but is only calculated for 2005

Jobs without Rail for 2025 (FTA, 2004) 130,500Job Increase Rate at Stations Only for 2025 (FTA, 2004) 0.17Assumption: Hourly Wage (Many service jobs) 12.00$ Average Working Hours Per Day 8.00 Average Working Days Per Year 245.00 Job Increase at Stations Only 22,185 Total Benefit Toward Regional Economy (Excluding DWL) 521,791,200$


Our Sensitivity Analysis adjusts for inflated numbers and different discount rates

Commuter savings inflation of 10 and 20 percent

Capital costs increases of 10, 20, and 30 percent

Discount Rates for each scenario of 5,6,7,8,9, & 10 percent

Silver Line CBA with no assumed errors looks very favorable

in millionsDiscount Rate NPV

3% $1,909.254% $1,582.205% $1,302.816% $1,063.667% $858.588% $682.429% $530.86

10% $400.28

If capital costs were 10% more, rail is still beneficial


3% $1,782.444% $1,458.975% $1,182.996% $947.127% $745.188% $572.039% $423.35

10% $295.55



3% $1,655.644% $1,335.745% $1,063.186% $830.587% $631.788% $461.649% $315.85

10% $190.82



3% $1,528.844% $1,212.505% $943.376% $714.047% $518.388% $351.259% $208.35

10% $86.09

Even if capital costs increased by 40% and commuter benefits decreased by 20%, rail extension is favorable


3% $770.054% $525.985% $320.086% $146.257% ($0.55)8% ($124.52)9% ($229.18)

10% ($317.47)

Conclusion

Regional Strengths Net Present Value of Silver Line Recommendations

Fairfax County and Loudoun County will continue to grow

Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_3.pdf

Employment in Fairfax County Area

Source: http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/wash_tech.htm and

http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/fortune500.htm

25 of the Top 100 Federal Contractors General DynamicsBooz Allen HamiltonBearing Point

Six Fortune 500 companies NextelCapital One FinancialSallie Mae

Net Present Value

We recommend the construction of the Silver lineThe project creates a positive net

benefit in the regionThe area can support this project

because of regional stability

Date post:	21-Dec-2015
Category:	Documents
View:	215 times
Download:	0 times

Dulles Metro Extension Phase I: Tyson’s Corner Martene Bryan Luis Serna Matt Zarit.

Documents