Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why People Think

They're Smart Even When They're Not

Dunning-Kruger Effect states that less

competent people are more confident. To guard

ourselves against this mental bias, we need to

embrace the unknown and never stop learning.

Exodus 3:11

But Moses said to God, “Who am I, that I

should go to Pharaoh and bring the Israelites

out of Egypt?”

Exodus 4:1

Moses answered, “What if they do not believe

me or listen to me and say, ‘The LORD did not

appear to you’?”

Exodus 4:10

Moses said to the LORD, “O Lord, I have never

been eloquent, neither in the past nor since

you have spoken to your servant. I am slow of

speech and tongue.”

Exodus 4:13

But Moses said, “O Lord, please send

someone else to do it.”

WHEN MOSES STEPPED

TOWARD THE SEA,

THE PEOPLE FOLLOWED.

Exodus 14:1-2

Then the LORD said to Moses, 2“Tell the

Israelites to turn back and encamp near Pi

Hahiroth, between Migdol and the sea. They

are to encamp by the sea, directly opposite

Baal Zephon.

“On one side was the Red Sea, on the

other the wilderness, and in front an

insuperable barrier of mountains. There

was no natural egress from that cul-de-

sac, except to turn back to Egypt.”

F.B. Meyer, “Devotional Commentary on Exodus” pg. 161

Exodus 14:3-4 Pharaoh will think, ‘The Israelites are wandering around the land in confusion, hemmed in by the desert.’ And I will harden Pharaoh’s heart, and he will pursue them.

Exodus 14:5

When the king of Egypt was told that the

people had fled, Pharaoh and his officials

changed their minds about them and said,

“What have we done? We have let the

Israelites go and have lost their services!”

Exodus 14:7-8

He took six hundred of the best chariots, along

with all the other chariots of Egypt, with

officers over all of them. 8The LORD hardened

the heart of Pharaoh king of Egypt, so that he

pursued the Israelites, who were marching out

boldly.

TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER

TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER

He [or she] knows where he’s going.

TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER

He [or she] knows where he’s going.

She [or he] is able to persuade others to

come along for the ride.

Exodus 14:10

As Pharaoh approached, the Israelites looked

up, and there were the Egyptians, marching

after them. They were terrified and cried out to

the LORD.

Exodus 14:11-12

They said to Moses, “Was it because there were

no graves in Egypt that you brought us to the

desert to die? What have you done to us by

bringing us out of Egypt? 12Didn’t we say to you in

Egypt, ‘Leave us alone; let us serve the

Egyptians’? It would have been better for us to

serve the Egyptians than to die in the desert!”

MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT

PEOPLE ARE PEOPLE.

MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT PEOPLE

ARE PEOPLE.

SO I MIGHT AS WELL LOVE THE PEOPLE

GOD GAVE ME TO LEAD—

AND STOP WISHING FOR THE PEOPLE

I’D RATHER LEAD.

Exodus 4:29-31

Moses and Aaron brought together all the elders

of the Israelites, 30and Aaron told them everything

the LORD had said to Moses. He also performed

the signs before the people, 31and they believed.

And when they heard that the LORD was

concerned about them and had seen their misery,

they bowed down and worshiped.

LOVE THE PEOPLE GOD GAVE YOU.

EVERYBODY LOVES YOU—

UNTIL YOU LEAD.

Exodus 14:13-14

Moses answered the people, “Do not be afraid.

Stand firm and you will see the deliverance the

LORD will bring you today. The Egyptians you

see today you will never see again. 14The LORD

will fight for you; you need only to be still.”

• LIGHTEN UP

• BUCKLE UP

• GIVE IT UP

• SHUT UP

• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]

• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]

• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]

• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]

• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]

• GIVE IT UP [Let the Lord do the fighting.]

• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]

• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]

• GIVE IT UP [Let the Lord do the fighting.]

• SHUT UP [Be still.]

MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT FAILURE

IS ESSENTIAL FOR PROGRESS.

Exodus 14:13-14

Moses answered the people, “Do not be afraid.

Stand firm and you will see the deliverance the

LORD will bring you today. The Egyptians you

see today you will never see again. 14The LORD

will fight for you; you need only to be still.”

Exodus 14:15

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you

crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.

MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN

HOW TO FIND A COURAGE HE DIDN’T

EVEN KNOW HE HAD.

Exodus 14:15

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you

crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.

Exodus 14:16

Raise your staff and stretch out your hand over

the sea to divide the water so that the

Israelites can go through the sea on dry

ground.

Exodus 14:21-22

Then Moses stretched out his hand over the

sea, and all that night the LORD drove the sea

back with a strong east wind and turned it into

dry land. The waters were divided, 22and the

Israelites went through the sea on dry ground,

with a wall of water on their right and on their

left.

Exodus 14:17

I will harden the hearts of the Egyptians so

that they will go in after them. And I will gain

glory through Pharaoh and all his army,

through his chariots and his horsemen.

Exodus 14:19-20

Then the angel of God, who had been traveling in

front of Israel’s army, withdrew and went behind

them. The pillar of cloud also moved from in front

and stood behind them, 20coming between the

armies of Egypt and Israel. Throughout the night

the cloud brought darkness to the one side and

light to the other side; so neither went near the

other all night long.

Exodus 14:26

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Stretch out

your hand over the sea so that the waters may

flow back over the Egyptians and their chariots

and horsemen.”

Exodus 14:28-29

The water flowed back and covered the

chariots and horsemen—the entire army of

Pharaoh that had followed the Israelites into

the sea. Not one of them survived. 29But the

Israelites went through the sea on dry ground,

with a wall of water on their right and on their

left.

Exodus 14:31

And when the Israelites saw the great power

the LORD displayed against the Egyptians, the

people feared the LORD and put their trust in

him and in Moses his servant.

“Professional Christians, that is church

leaders, preachers and pastors, at some

point all become terribly aware that we

are walking contradictions.

We’re licensed frauds.”

Richard Holloway, Glittering Images and Ultimate Prizes

Exodus 14:15

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you

crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.

Exodus 15:1

Then Moses and the Israelites sang this song

to the LORD:

“I will sing to the LORD,

for he is highly exalted.

The horse and its rider

he has hurled into the sea.

MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT

THOUGH THERE IS A GOD,

HE WASN’T HIM!

Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic

Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic 1. We preach truth better than we live truth.

Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic 1. We preach truth better than we live truth.

2. We find it easier to be transparent when

we’re talking to 100s of people than if

we’re doing it 1:1.

It felt like I had just lost my lifeline…again.

“I’ve learned to kiss the wave that casts me

against the Rock of Ages.”

-Charles Spurgeon