DYMECS: Dynamical and DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Microphysical Evolution of
Convective StormsConvective Storms(NERC Standard Grant)(NERC Standard Grant)
University of Reading: University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, John NicolThorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, John Nicol
Met Office: Met Office: Humphrey Lean, Carol HalliwellHumphrey Lean, Carol Halliwell
The DYMECS approach: beyond case studiesThe DYMECS approach: beyond case studies
NIMROD radar network rainfall
Track storms in real time and
automatically scan Chilbolton radar
Derive properties of hundreds of storms on ~40 days:•Vertical velocity•3D structure•Rain & hail•Ice water content•TKE & dissipation rate
Evaluate these properties in model varying:•Resolution•Microphysics scheme•Sub-grid turbulence parametrization
Nimrod radar 1.5-km model
500-m model 200-m model
Kirsty HanleyKirsty Hanley
Nimrod radar 1.5-km model
500-m model 200-m model
Kirsty HanleyKirsty Hanley
Too many
Too few
Storm size Storm size distributiondistribution
• Smagorinsky mixing length plays a key role in determining number of small storms
1.5-km model
500-m model
Kirsty HanleyKirsty Hanley
20 April 201220 April 2012 25 Aug 201225 Aug 2012
200-m model best
500-m model best
200-m model best
1.5-km model
best
Kirsty HanleyKirsty Hanley
Vertical Vertical profileprofile
First 60% of storms by cloud-top height
Next 30%
Top 10%
Thorwald SteinThorwald Stein
Ice density too low?
Higher reflectivit
y core
Observations 1.5-km model 1.5-km + graupel
Vertical Vertical profileprofile
First 60% of storms by cloud-top height
Next 30%
Top 10%
Observations 200-m model 500-m model
Thorwald SteinThorwald Stein
Estimation of vertical velocities Estimation of vertical velocities from continuityfrom continuity
• Vertical cross-sections (RHIs) are typically made at low elevations (e.g. < 10°)
• Radial velocities provide accurate estimate of the horizontal winds
• Assume vertical winds are zero at the surface• Working upwards, changes in horizontal winds at a given level
increment the vertical wind up to that point• Must account for density change with height
John NicolJohn Nicol
• Key uncertainty in models is convective updraft intensity and spatial scale
• Can we estimate updrafts from Doppler wind sufficiently well to characterize the distribution of intensity and spatial scale?
Vertical wind (m/s)
Retrieved vertical wind (m/s)
Retrieval error (m/s)
Reflectivity (dBZ)
Horizontal wind (m/s)
Estimating retrieval errors Estimating retrieval errors from the Unified Modelfrom the Unified Model
John NicolJohn Nicol
dBZ
u (m/s)
w (m/s)
12:45 07 August 2011 16:37 07 August 2011
John NicolJohn Nicol
Scientific and modelling questionsScientific and modelling questions• What is magnitude and scale of convective updrafts? How do two
observational methods compare to model at various resolutions?• What model configurations lead to the best 3D storm structure
and evolution, and why?• How good are predictions of hail occurrence and turbulence?• How is boundary-layer grey zone best treated at high resolution,
and what is the role of the Smagorinsky length scale?• Does BL scheme “diffuse away” gust fronts necessary to capture
triggering of daughter cells and if so how can this be corrected?• Can models distinguish single cells, multi-cell storms & squall
lines, and the location of daughter cells formed by gust fronts?• What are the characteristics common to quasi-stationary storms in
the UK from the large DYMECS database?• Can we diagnose parameters that should be used in convection
schemes from observations?