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Dynamical processes within extreme winter European ETCs Adrian Champion, Mat Collins
Dynamical processes within extreme winter European ETCsAdrian Champion, Mat Collins
Real ProjectionsRobust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change:
• Examine our understanding of the robustness of the physical processes responsible for climate change
• University of Exeter, British Antarctic Survey, University of East Anglia, Met Office, NCAS (Reading), University of Oxford
Investigate the dynamical processes within ETCs:• Ability of climate change models to capture the
dynamical processes• How might those processes change in a warmer
climate?• Drivers of the largest uncertainty
[email protected]://ex.ac.uk/achampion@ajchampionuk
Extreme winter European ETCs• TRACK (Hodges 1994, 1995, 1999):
• T42 850hPa relative vorticity• 2 day, 1000km filter
• Region filtered:• 15W to 25E• 45N to 70N• Reduced region compared to XWS to remove
Mediterranean cyclones
• Top 50 events:• Relative vorticity, MSLP, winds, precip, vertical velocity
[email protected]://ex.ac.uk/achampion@ajchampionuk
ERA-20C: 1900-2010
[email protected]://ex.ac.uk/achampion@ajchampionuk
Period # storms # > 37.5mm % # storms # > 2.5mm %
1900-1930 1012 124 12.3 1144 126 11.0
1910-1940 1051 128 12.2 1175 141 12.0
1920-1950 1039 116 11.2 1128 141 12.5
1930-1960 1066 137 12.9 1149 149 13.0
1940-1970 1083 135 12.5 1194 148 12.4
1950-1980 1155 178 15.4 1284 158 12.3
1960-1990 1209 198 16.4 1283 158 12.3
1970-2000 1251 229 18.3 1314 185 14.1
1980-2010 1236 214 17.3 1281 194 15.1
1979-2010 1276 221 17.3 1328 200 15.1
ERA-Interim 1284 249 19.4 1306 419 32.1
1000km, 2 day filter, extrema in region
Future work• Vertical slices through storms:
• Wind speed• Vertical velocity• Potential temperature
• Apply method to climate models:• Do we see the same structure and relationships in
climate models?• Do these remain the same in a warmer climate?
[email protected]://ex.ac.uk/achampion@ajchampionuk
