This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.
Advancing Growth
EAA Aluminium penetration in cars
Final Report
March 13, 2012
Public version
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2
Introduction
• The US arm of Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development ofaluminium content in automotive light vehicle applications on a bi annual basis since 1991
• For the first time, in 2011, Ducker Europe began to collect similar data for cars in Europe • The study was conducted in two phases• The first Phase of the methodology had the scope to gather internal information from EAA
members as well as of Ducker internal sources on the chosen components• In Phase II interviews with parts makers and OEMs in Europe have been conducted in order to
get all the missing information from Phase I, confirm or correct already existing data and clarify contradictions
• Data is collected on a “bottom-up” basis, meaning the market has been analysied on an OEM, platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis
• Primary research with OEMs, automotive suppliers, aluminum producers and other expert sources
• The contents of this report are not developed to be utilized as a “business planning document”; it was created with a trend line, marketing and public relations frame work to help educate the public on automotive applications of aluminum in Europe
• Information contained within this report should be considered “point in time;” and can change rapidly along with several external variables
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Ducker examined all the components on this page for this study with a heavy concentration on the components in red which were chosen by the EAA members
3
Engines Steering Trim and Interiors Transmissions Body and Closures
Blocks Steering Knuckles Sun roofs Automatic, CVT & Dual Clutch Transmission cases
Complete body structures
Cylinder heads Column housings Sport racks Transfer Case Partial Body
Oil pans Rack & pinion housings Trim Power take off units Radiator supports
Intake manifolds Steering Wheels Wiper Arms Differential Carriers Instrument panel structures
Pistons Ball joint yokes Wiper motor housings Drive shafts Bumper beams
Water pump housings Chassis and Suspension Sun roof motor housings Yokes Crash boxes
Alternator cases Control arms Starter motor housings Heat Transfer Door intrusion beams
Fuel rails Lateral links Seat motor housings Radiators Front endsFront covers Sub-frames Seat pans Heater cores DoorsBed plates Cross members Seat frames Transmission coolers Hoods/bonnets
Powertrain Mounts Cradles Seat tracks Condensers Fender/wings
Timing chain covers Wheels and Brakes Seat belt spools and retractors Evaporators Deck lids/boots
Accessory brackets Wheels Air bag canisters Compressors Housings Lift gatesOil filter adapters Brake calipers Computer housings Compressor scrolls Tailgates
Cam covers Master cylinders Overhead rails Compressor pistons Roofs
Thermostat housings Brake pistons DVD enclosures Connection hardware Shock towers
Water outlet tubes ABS housings Running boards Oil coolers Truck bed rails
Valve Plates Drums & rotors Heat Sinks Receiver/dryers Ladder Frames
Heat shields
Introduction
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4
These 57 vehicles were chosen by the EAA members for detailed analysis Segment Example Segment Example
Fiat 500(312) Audi A4(AU481)Fiat Panda(139) Audi Q5(AU416)Audi A1(AU210) BMW 3 (F30)Audi TT(AU324) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246)Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204)Citroen C3(A51) Opel Insignia(GM G3700)Lancia Ypsilon(846) Peugeot 508(W2)Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Porsche Panamera(970)Peugeot 208(A9) Volkswagen Passat(VW471)Renault Clio(X98) Volvo S60(Y283)Toyota Yaris(850L) Audi A6(AU571)Volkswagen Up Audi A7(AU573)Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Audi A8(AU641)Alfa Romeo Gulietta Audi Q7(AU716)Audi Q3 (AU 316) BMW 5 (F10)Audi A3(AU370) BMW 7 (F01/02)BMW 1 (F20) Jaguar XF(X250)Citroen C4(B7) Jaguar XJ(X351)Ford C-Max(C344) Land Rover Ranger Rover (L405)Ford Focus(C346) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) )Ford Kuga Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221)
Honda Civic(2HC) Mercedes-Benz-S-Class (W222)Jaguar XK(X150) Porsche Cayenne(E2)Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526)
Mini Countryman(R60)Opel Astra(GM P3400)Opel Zafira(GM A3370)Peugeot 5008(T87)Renault Megane(X95)
Volkswagen Golf(VW370)Volkswagen Touran(VW368)
Volvo C30(Y279)Volvo XC60(Y413)
D
E
A
B
C
7,646,770 VehiclesRepresenting 44.4%
of the 2012 EU forecast
Introduction
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Introduction
5
2012 Sample Vehicles Segmented by OEM
One half of the total production of these OEMs is represented by the sample
79% 73%52% 44% 44%
91%
62% 65%
40%19%
92%
35% 32%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Sample Share of Total 2012 Units for These OEMs
7,646,770 Sample Vehicles
OEM Sample Units OEM Sample UnitsBMW 975,403 Honda Civic 111,766GM 783,274 Volvo 190,899Audi 937,560 Porsche 81,670
Mercedes 698,611 Tata 187,188PSA 929,086 Volkswagen 1,041,596Fiat 573,868 Ford 553,987
Renault 361,472 Toyota Yaris 220,390Grand Total 7,646,770
* only one vehicle in the sample
VW14%
BMW13%
Audi12%
PSA12%
GM10%
Mercedes9%
Fiat8%
Ford7%
Renault5%
Toyota*3%
Tata3%
Volvo2%
Honda*1%
Porsche1%
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Introduction
6
17,233,811 EU 27 Vehicles in 2012
VW19%
PSA13%
Renault11%
Ford10%
BMW8%
Mercedes8%
Audi7%
Fiat8%
GM5%
Toyota4%
Hyundai3%
Tata1%
All other3%
• Ideally we would have put 50% of each OEMs anticipated 2012 production into the sample
• This does not take into account the selection criteria of picking only recently launched vehicles. 96% of the sample was launched in the last 62 months
• On this basis, the sample contains 56% of all the vehicles launched in the EU in the last 62 months
SampleShare
Total EU Share
VW 14% 19%BMW 13% 8%Audi 12% 7%PSA 12% 13%GM 10% 5%
Mercedes 9% 8%Fiat 8% 8%Ford 7% 10%
Renault 5% 11%Toyota 3% 4%Tata 3% 1%
All Other 4% 6%
2012 EU Forecast
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7
Introduction
When compared to total 2012 EU light production, the sample is over weighted with D & E segment vehicles. The sample does not contain any full frame vehicles. These decisions had a negative effect on the total EU aluminum content versus the sample
7,646,770 Vehicles 17,232,935 Vehicles
Total EU VehiclesSplit by Segment Sample Vehicles
Split by Segment
A6%
B22%
C35%
D22%
E15%
A7%
B31%
C34%
D16%
E8%
Other Full Frame
2%
Full Size Full Frame
2%
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8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Fi
at 5
00(3
12)
Fiat
Pan
da(1
39)
Vol
ksw
agen
Up
Ren
ault
Clio
(X98
)R
enau
lt M
egan
e(X9
5)La
ncia
Yps
ilon(
846)
Toyo
ta Y
aris
(850
L)O
pel M
eriv
a(G
M S
4470
)C
itroe
n C
3(A
51)
Citr
oen
C3
Pic
asso
(A58
)Vo
lksw
agen
Pol
o(VW
250)
Ope
l Zaf
ira(G
M A
3370
)Vo
lksw
agen
Gol
f(VW
370)
Peu
geot
208
(A9)
Ope
l Ast
ra(G
M P
3400
)P
euge
ot 5
008(
T87)
Aud
i A1(
AU
210)
Alfa
Rom
eo G
ulie
ttaFo
rd C
-Max
(C34
4)C
itroe
n C
4(B
7)B
MW
1 (F
20)
Ford
Foc
us(C
346)
Volk
swag
en T
oura
n(VW
368)
Ford
Kug
a(C
394)
Vol
ksw
agen
Pas
sat(V
W47
1)M
ini C
ount
rym
an(R
60)
Peug
eot 5
08(W
2)H
onda
Civ
ic(2
HC
)Vo
lvo
C30
(Y27
9)A
udi A
4(A
U48
1)O
pel I
nsig
nia(
GM
G37
00)
Mer
cede
s-B
enz
B-C
lass
(W24
6)A
udi A
3(A
U37
0)Vo
lvo
XC60
(Y41
3)A
udi Q
3(A
U31
6)V
olvo
S60
(Y28
3)M
erce
des-
Ben
z C
-Cla
ss(W
204)
BM
W 3
(F30
)La
nd R
over
Ran
ge R
over
Evo
que(
L538
)A
udi Q
5(A
U41
6)Vo
lksw
agen
Tou
areg
(VW
526)
Jagu
ar X
F(X
250)
Mer
cede
s-B
enz
E-C
lass
(W21
2)A
udi Q
7(A
U71
6)P
orsc
he C
ayen
ne(E
2)A
udi A
6(A
U57
1)B
MW
5 (F
10)
Aud
i TT(
AU
324)
Por
sche
Pan
amer
a(97
0)A
udi A
7(A
U57
3)M
erce
des-
Ben
z S-
Cla
ss(W
221)
BM
W 7
(F01
/F02
)M
erce
des-
Ben
z S-
Cla
ss(W
222)
Jagu
ar X
K(X
150)
Jagu
ar X
J(X
351)
Aud
i A8(
AU
641)
Land
Rov
er R
ange
Rov
er(L
405)Kilo
gram
s pe
r Sam
ple
Vehi
cle
Aluminum Intense(Doors and /or partial bodyand suspensions)
Executive Summary
Complete Bodies and
Suspensions
Aluminum hoods and suspensions
Below average aluminum content
Aluminum content ranges from 74.5 kg for the Fiat 500 to 561 kg for the Land Rover Range Rover. The average is 160 kg for the sample vehicles
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Executive Summary
9
A-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle C-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicleFiat Panda(139) 237196 75.5 Jaguar XK(X150) 5304 453Fiat 500(312) 169151 74.5 Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) 99447 194.5B-Segment Volvo XC60(Y413) 100246 203.7Audi TT(AU324) 22336 269.7 Audi Q3(AU316) 91888 200.9Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) 71610 150.6 Audi A3(AU370) 43994 169.6Peugeot 208(A9) 295702 124.3 Audi A4(AU481) 222021 139Audi A1(AU210) 145125 119 Volvo C30(Y279) 22023 151.8Volkswagen Polo(VW250) 383198 102.3 Honda Civic(2HC) 111766 141.3Opel Meriva(GM S4470) 143234 102.8 Citroen C4(B7) 150235 133.7Citroen C3(A51) 202748 109.1 BMW 1 (F20) 216375 114.6Volkswagen Up 74964 86.2 Mini Countryman(R60) 98413 165.5Toyota Yaris(850L) 220390 96 Volkswagen Touran(VW368) 109670 141.4Renault Clio(X98) 115943 98.2 Ford Kuga(C394) 46099 129.3Lancia Ypsilon(846) 88315 78 Ford C-Max(C344) 131666 133.9D-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle Alfa Romeo Gulietta 79206 112.5Porsche Panamera(970) 26700 306.9 Ford Focus(C346) 376222 131.9Audi Q5(AU416) 117353 228 Peugeot 5008(T87) 73892 109.5BMW 3 (F30) 369718 198.4 Opel Zafira(GM A3370) 140453 130.3Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) 199313 202.9 Volkswagen Golf(VW370) 140323 126.8Volvo S60(Y283) 68630 184.3 Opel Astra(GM P3400) 364879 106.3Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) 164117 166 Renault Megane(X95) 245529 105.1Peugeot 508(W2) 134499 175.6 E-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicleVolkswagen Passat(VW471) 260689 147.1 Audi A7(AU573) 33007 322.3Opel Insignia(GM G3700) 134708 148.6 BMW 5 (F10) 231809 307.3E-Segment 2012 Units kg/vehicle Audi A6(AU571) 168436 287.0Land Rover Range Rover(L405) 19717 561.3 Porsche Cayenne(E2) 54970 279.4Jaguar XJ(X351) 19169 546.3 Audi Q7(AU716) 50719 263.2Audi A8(AU641) 42681 538.2 Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) 275896 254.3Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) 6224 388.0 Jaguar XF(X250) 43551 238.5BMW 7 (F01/F02) 59088 353.4 Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) 73152 219.2
Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) 53061 331.7 Total 7,646,770 160.1
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Executive Summary
The 2012 sample aluminum content is 1.224 million tons. The BMW 3 Series, BMW 5 Series and the Mercedes E Class are 17% of the total. 15 vehicles represent over 50% of all the sample tons. Total EU 27 aluminum content is estimated to be 2.4 million tons. The sample contains 52% of the total EU 27 content
10
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Jagu
ar X
K(X
150)
Vol
vo C
30(Y
279)
Vol
ksw
agen
Up
Ford
Kug
a(C
394)
Aud
i TT(
AU
324)
Aud
i A3(
AU
370)
Citr
oen
C3
Pica
sso(
A58)
Pors
che
Pana
mer
a(97
0)La
ncia
Yps
ilon(
846)
Peu
geot
500
8(T8
7)R
enau
lt C
lio(X
98)
Alfa
Rom
eo G
ulie
ttaJa
guar
XF(
X25
0)Ja
guar
XJ(
X35
1)A
udi A
7(A
U57
3)La
nd R
over
Ran
ge R
over
(L40
5)A
udi Q
7(A
U71
6)V
olvo
S60
(Y28
3)Fi
at 5
00(3
12)
Min
i Cou
ntry
man
(R60
)Po
rsch
e C
ayen
ne(E
2)O
pel M
eriv
a(G
M S
4470
)V
olks
wag
en T
oura
n(V
W36
8)O
pel Z
afira
(GM
A33
70)
Vol
ksw
agen
Tou
areg
(VW
526)
Hon
da C
ivic
(2H
C)
Vol
ksw
agen
Gol
f(VW
370)
Ford
C-M
ax(C
344)
Mer
cede
s-B
enz
S-C
lass
(W22
1)A
udi Q
3(A
U31
6)A
udi A
1(A
U21
0)V
olvo
XC
60(Y
413)
Fiat
Pan
da(1
39)
Peu
geot
508
(W2)
Citr
oen
C4(
B7)
BMW
7 (F
01/F
02)
Land
Rov
er R
ange
Rov
er…
Toyo
ta Y
aris
(850
L)C
itroe
n C
3(A
51)
Ope
l Ins
igni
a(G
M G
3700
)R
enau
lt M
egan
e(X
95)
Aud
i A8(
AU
641)
Aud
i Q5(
AU
416)
Mer
cede
s-B
enz
B-C
lass
(W24
6)BM
W 1
(F20
)A
udi A
4(A
U48
1)P
euge
ot 2
08(A
9)V
olks
wag
en P
assa
t(VW
471)
Mer
cede
s-B
enz
C-C
lass
(W20
4)V
olks
wag
en P
olo(
VW
250)
Ope
l Ast
ra(G
M P
3400
)A
udi A
6(A
U57
1)Fo
rd F
ocus
(C34
6)BM
W 5
(F10
)M
erce
des-
Ben
z E
-Cla
ss(W
212)
BMW
3 (F
30)
2012 Tons of Sample Aluminum Content
0 50000 100000
Audi Q5(AU416)Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246)
BMW 1 (F20)Audi A4(AU481)
Peugeot 208(A9)Volkswagen Passat(VW471)
Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204)Volkswagen Polo(VW250)
Opel Astra(GM P3400)Audi A6(AU571)
Ford Focus(C346)BMW 5 (F10)
Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212)BMW 3 (F30)
Tons
Top 15 Vehicles
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Executive Summary
Jaguar is the aluminum content leader in the sample. Fiat has the lowest aluminum content. Ducker believes that with the proper mix adjustment, these estimates, with the possible exception of Renault, are representative of each OEM’s total 2012 production
11
342.7
292.1275.9
226.3 218.4 218.2
181.6
140.1 130.3 126.8 125.5 119.696 91.1 82.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Kilo
gram
s pe
r Veh
icle
Weighted Average 2012 Aluminum Content by OEMfor the Sample Vehicles
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12
Executive Summary
1.22 million tons or 160.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum content for the whole sample by segment
A2% B
16%
C32%
D22%
E28%
8%
9%
10%
12%
17%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
A
B
C
D
E
2012 Sample Aluminum Segment Share of Curb Weight
Segment Curb Weight kg Aluminum kg PercentA 930 75 8%B 1183 109 9%C 1358 135 10%D 1534 184 12%E 1795 301 17%
75103 109
135
184
301
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A A/B B C D E
2012 Sample Aluminum Content by Segment
11.5% of curb weight for the Sample
Is aluminum
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13
VW19%
PSA13%
Renault11%
Ford10%
BMW8%
Mercedes8%
Audi7%
Fiat8%
GM5%
Toyota4%
Hyundai3%
Tata1%
All other3%
VW14%
BMW13%
Audi12%
PSA12%
GM10%
Mercedes9%
Fiat8%
Ford7%
Renault5%
Toyota*3%Land Rover
2%
Volvo2% Jaguar
1%Honda*
1%Porsche
1%
2012 Sample
A6%
B22%
C35%
D22%
E15% A
7%
B31%
C34%
D16%
E8%
Other Full Frame
2%
Full Size Full Frame
2%
2012 Total EU
2012 Sample 2012 Total EU
Executive Summary
Applying the sample content per OEM to
the total EU production yields
144 kg/vehicle160kg/vehicle
160Kg/vehicle
Applying the sample content per
segment to the total EU production
yields
145kg/vehicle
This tells us that most of the difference
between the sample and the EU total was
simply due to OEM and vehicle mix not content
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14
Sample aluminum content of 160 kg
Non sample aluminum content of 124 kg
Total EU 27 aluminum content of 140 kg
Executive Summary
The non sample vehicles contain 24% less aluminum per vehicle than the sample vehicles. This is due primarily to OEM and mix differences, not content differencesby segment for the sample and for the total production
+
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Executive Summary
• The total increase in EU light vehicle aluminum content from 2006 to 2012 is estimated at 19.2 kg
• The increase in aluminum content over the same period in North America is estimated at only 13 kg. This is 50% of the aluminum growth experienced in North America in the period 2000 to 2006
• 40% of the aluminum part growth (excluding wheels ) in the sample is structural components. Currently, the EU leads the world in the use of high tech aluminum automotive components
15
In order to makehistorical
comparisons,these
component categorieshad to be
used
0.2
0.7
0.2
1
0.7
0.3
0.7
2.2
0.9
5.6
6.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
All Other Components includingTrim and Sun roofs
Heat Exchangers
Brakes
Closures
Body & IP Beams
Heat Shields
Bumper Beams and Crash Boxes
Engines with Mounts
Transmission & Driveline
Chassis, Suspension & Steeringwith Knuckles
Wheels with Spares
2006 - 2012 EU Aluminum (kg) Content Increase
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16
Summary by Segment
30.5 Thousand tons or 75.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum
in the A Segment
Wheels24%
Transmission18%
Heads17%
Heat Exchangers10%
Other Engine10%
Crash Management6%
Other steering and brakes
6%
Heat Shields3%
All other Parts3%
Driveline1%
PT mounts1%
Sun roofs1%
Sample A Segment
Wheels26%
Blocks13%
Transmission12%
Heads10%
Other Engine9%
Heat Exchangers8%
Other steering and brakes6%
Subframes5%
Heat Shields3%
All other Parts2%
Crash Management2%
BIW1%
PT mounts1% Sun roofs
1%Arms, IP beams, Closures, Knuckles, Driveline, Trim
0%
Sample B-Segment
192.5 Thousand tons or109 kg per vehicle of
aluminum in the B Segment
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
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17
Summary by Segment
Wheels26%
Transmission12%
Blocks13%
Heads11%
Other Engine9%
Heat Exchangers8%
Other steering and brakes6%
Subframes5%
Heat Shields3%
Crash Management2%
All other Parts2%
BIW1%
PT mounts1% Sun roofs
1%Driveline, IP beams, Closures,
Arms, knuckles, Trim<1%
Sample A/B-Segment
223.1 Thousand tons or103 kg per vehicle of aluminum
in the A/B Segment
Wheels21%
Transmission12%
Heat Exchangers9%
Blocks8%Other Engine
11%
Heads9%
Other steering and brakes
5%
Knuckles3%
Crash Management4%
Subframes3%
Arms3%
Heat Shields2%
Driveline2%
Closures2%
All other Parts2%
PT mounts2%
Trim1%
Sun roofs1%
IP beams, BIW <1%
Sample C-Segment
388.3 Thousand tons or135.3 kg per vehicle of
aluminum in the C Segment
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
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18
Summary by Segment
Wheels21%
Other Engine11%
Transmission9%
Heat Exchangers9%
Heads7%
Blocks7%
Subframes6%
Other steering and brakes
5%
Closures4%
Knuckles4%
Crash Management3%
Arms3%
BIW3%
Driveline2%
Heat Shields2%
PT mounts2% All other Parts
1%
Trim1%
IP beams1%
Sun roofs1%
271.8 Thousand tons or184.2 kg per vehicle of
aluminum in the D Segment
Sample D-Segment• The D segment in Europe is
very similar in aluminum content to the D/E segment in North America.
• This segment is12% aluminum as a share of curb weight
• 50% of the vehicles have aluminum hoods and bumpers, and some vehicles have partial aluminum body structures
• Aluminum content in this segment is ripe for continued growth.
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
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Wheels15%
Closures13%
BIW11%
Other Engine9%Transmission
8%Heat Exchangers
7%
Heads6%
Other steering and brakes
5%
Subframes5%
Knuckles4%
Other steering and brakes
3%Arms3%
Driveline2%
Crash Management2%
Heat Shields2%
All other Parts1% Trim
1%
340.9 Thousand tons or301.3 kg per vehicle of
aluminum in the E Segment
Summary by Segment
Sample E Segment • In totality, the E Segment is not the most important segment going forward, but for the last 15 years it has been the global benchmark for new aluminum structural applications in autos
• The average content for the sample and for the entire segment is near 300kg per vehicle
• Only U.S. pickup trucks as a vehicle segment are likely to ever rival this European segment for aluminum content
• 40% of the components in this segment, not including wheels, are high tech structural parts
• At 17% of curb weight, aluminum penetration is nearing the practical limit in this segment
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
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20
With the exception of the E Segment, the sample average segment content differences versus total EU and versus other regions are minimal compared to the OEM mix differences which cause most of the variation
Summary by Segment
7096 105
130175
290
128
050
100150200250300350
A A/B B C D E FullFrame
2012 EU TotalAverage of 140 kg
75103 109
135
184
301
7096 105
130
175
290
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A A/B B C D E
SampleTotal
2012 EU SampleAverage of 160 kg
EU Sample160 kg versus Total 140 kg
72% of delta is mix and 28% is content
110135
151
190
96130
175
290
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A/B C D E
North AmericaEU
EU Total 140 kg/vand NA Car 145 kg/v
75103 109
135
184
301
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A A/B B C D E
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0500000
100000015000002000000250000030000003500000400000045000005000000
North America
EU 27
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
A/B 4%
C 17%
D 20%
E 5%
SUV26%
MPV6%
Full Frame22%
North America
A/B 27%
C 21%D
13%
E 8%
SUV14%
MPV11%
Full Frame6%
EU 27
Same number of D+E Cars
A look at the segment differences between Europe and North America
UnitsShare
Summary by Segment
The big difference between
European and North American
light vehicle mix is the large share of A/B vehicles in Europe
and the high share ofD Segment and SUVs
in North America. The big difference between the full frame use is not relevant
for this study
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Product Form Analysis
Rolled, extruded and forged wrought products were a surprisingly high 30% share of the total aluminum content in the sample. These product forms are estimated to be 27% of the total content of 2.4 million aluminum content tons
22
1.22 Million Tons of aluminum for the sample segmented by
product form
Product Forms for the Sample of 7.65 Million Vehicles
Cast70%
Rolled14%
Extruded11%
Forged 4%
Cobapress1%
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• Compared to the sample wrought product total of 30%, the 2012 Total EU wrought product share is 27% and the 2010 wrought product share is 26%
23
Cast73%
Rolled13%
Extruded10%
Forged 4%
Total EU 2012 140 kg/vehicle
Cast74%
Rolled13%
Extruded10%
Forged 3%
Total EU 2010 134 kg/vehicle
Cast70%
Rolled14%
Extruded11%
Forged 5%
2012 Sample 160 kg/vehicle
Product Form Analysis
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US 2025:107
EU 2020: 95
Japan 2020: 105China 2020: 117
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gra
ms
CO
2pe
r kilo
met
er, n
orm
aliz
ed to
NED
CUS-LDV
California-LDVCanada-LDV
EU
Japan
China
S. Korea
Australia
Solid dots and lines: historical performanceSolid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targetsHollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal
[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.
Global fleet CO2 emissions performance andcurrent or proposed standards adjusted for the European test cycle
Emissions and Fuel Economy Analysis
Europe has very aggressive targets for CO2 reduction
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Ducker has assumed several characteristics about the future in order to determine the most likely aluminum light vehicle content in Europe by 2015, 2020 and beyond
Aluminum will provide 50% to 75% of this weight reduction
• Regulations will require OEMs in their totality to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 grams per kilometer over the next eight years
• Average car curb weight (adjusted for new safety and comfort features) will decline by 5% between 2012 and 2025
Comments:Assumptions:
• Aluminum is 80% to 30% effective for weight reduction versus steel depending on the type of steel it replaces
• Aluminum indirectly provide another 30% weight savings. Advanced high strength steel and footprint reduction will provide the remaining 20%
The estimates we have for similar requirements in the U.S. are relevant to Europe
• The similarities between EU and U.S. car characteristics, their similar CO2 reduction targets by 2020 and the overlap of OEMS strategies provides insight on what will happen to aluminum growth in Europe over the next eight - ten years
• North American cars will need to add 40 kg of aluminum by 2020 and 64 kg by 2025
Alternative powertrain acceptance will remain at less
than 10% of the solution through 2025
• Gasoline or diesel/electric hybrids or plug-in electric) acceptance is moving at a snails pace in Europe. Regulators are counting on a surge in acceptance, but the cost and inconvenience will inhibit consumers much more than the regulators anticipate
100 kg of weight reduction saves 8 grams of CO2 per
kilometer. This is a 5% reduction
Market DriversFuture Aluminum Content Analysis
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Future Aluminum Content Analysis
26
2012 Values EU Light Vehicles U.S.Car
U.S. Light Truck
U.S. Combined
Curb Weight kg 1372 1435 2016 1743Footprint square meters 3.97 4.2 5 4.55
kg/square meter 346 342 419 383Aluminum Content kg 140 145.6 165 156
Aluminum kg/m2 35.3 34.7 33 34.3CO2/kilometer 135* 163** 215** 183**2020 CO2/km 95* 113** 163** 132**
CO2 2012 - 2020 Delta 40* 50** 52** 51**2025 CO2/km 70*** 89** 126** 101**
Except for the CO2 emissions, the similarities for vehicle characteristics and 2012 aluminum content between the EU 27 and the U.S./NA are much greater than the differences (see below). Cars in the U.S have to reduce CO2 by 30% by 2020, and 45% by 2025. The required reduction in Europe is 29% by 2020, and 48% by 2025. Cars in North America and Europe should add similar quantities of aluminum over the next 8 years on a kilogram per square meter basis, and similar quantities from 2020 to 2025
***Ducker Forecast for 2025. As yet, there is no
EU regulation for 2025*NEDC Test Cycle **EPA CAFÉ Test Cycle
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Future Aluminum Content Analysis
Analysis of the cost/benefit of lightweighting with EU Regulation EC 443/2009• The table below shows that with a 95€ / g CO2 penalty every kg of light weighting is worth
7.6 € with a footprint based legislation and 3.26 € with a mass based legislation. The reason for the big change is that while a 100 kg weight reduction actually saves 8 g and with a footprint based regulation moves you 8 g closer to the target, it only moves you 3.43 g closer with a mass based regulation.
• Indeed with a mass based regulation each 100 kg of light weighting means a 4.57g tougher target. With a footprint based regulation the target does not shift if the mass is changing.
• Given that the cost for light weighting with aluminium is normally in the range of 2-8 €/kg (depending on the application). Obviously a cost/benefit calculation for aluminium light weighting will have a better chance for positive results with a footprint based regulation than with a mass based regulation.
27
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A previous short term trend analysis predicted 144 kilograms of aluminum content by 2015. The current trend analysis and market evidence supports a forecast of 150 kg per vehicle in 2015, and the theoretical CO2 based analysis supports 180 kg by 2020
28
121
131
136
144
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2006 Forecast for 20152012 Forecast for 2015
121
134140
150
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200 2012 Forecast 2015 - 2020
Future Aluminum Content Analysis
Estimate
StudyMarket
Model150
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Ducker believes the aluminum additions in the A/B and C segments are more important than the additions to the D and E segments. Without the smaller vehicles, aluminum content can not get to 180 kg per vehicle
29
Required Aluminum Additions to Raise Aluminum Content by 40 kg
96130
175
290
128 140
34
55
35
15
1540
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A/B C D E Full Frame Total
Kilo
gram
s pe
r Veh
icle Added by 2020
2012
Future Aluminum Content Analysis
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30
This concludes our report. Thank you.
This presentation was prepared by Ducker Research SAS. Opinions and estimates constitutejudgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Anyinterpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client. Reproductionwithout the explicit consent of Ducker Research SAS is strictly prohibited.
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