Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
2011 Ohio Freight ConferenceToledo Metropolitan Area Council of
GovernmentsEAI, Inc. (Energy Analysts International)
Joseph J. Leto / [email protected] / 303‐469‐5115
Petroleum Transportation and Logistics:
North America-Midwest-Ohio Perspective
2
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
333
Declining U.S. Gasoline Consumption
Increasing Ethanol Use
Biofuels Supply Capability Lags Mandate / RFS Plans
Recovery and growth of On‐Road Diesel Demand
Decline of U.S. Refinery Crude Runs/Potential Closures
Increasing Exports of U.S. Finished Product to Foreign Destinations to Maintain
Refinery Utilization/Profitability
Decline in Refinery Distillate Output Without Continued Investment
Major Shifts in Refined Product Transportation
U.S. Downstream Business Trends and OutlooksKey Drivers for Product Transport/Pipelines
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Refining center
Primary pipelineProduct import
Barge movement
MidwestMidcontinent
Gulf Coast
PacificSouthwest
SoutheastSeaboard
Pacific
North
west
Northeast
SeaboardRocky
MountainNorthern
Tier
U.S. Refined Product NetworkPetroleum Logistics in Transition
Product flows / logistics shifting as shown below; Gulf Coast experiencing increases in supply through
displacement, consumption declines and manufacturing increases.
Refiners increasing exports (to
foreign and new domestic destinations), shifting to diesel and reducing runs.
GC-WTX/NM-SCA competing For finite market
Transitioning from Balanced-to-LongCARB cap. a first
GC growing surplus plus
Expansion of CPL-increasing
NES-GC-European competition
Import Pressure
& Refinery Closures
SLC-LV New PL
Refiners
need new
outlets
Puget Sound Refiner
Backed out of LA
Declin
ing
CNV LP
dem
and
&
Favo
rabl
e cru
de p
ricin
g in
nor
th
Resul
ting
in G
C pro
duct
disp
lacem
ent
4
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
COLONIAL / PLANTATION COLONIAL / PLANTATION
KINDER MORGAN KINDER MORGAN
EXPLOREREXPLORER
Chicago
Lima
HoustonBeaumont
516/356516/356
131/152131/152
103/87103/87
375/408375/408
204/321204/321
TEPPCOTEPPCO
CENTENNIALCENTENNIAL
1486/15951486/1595
315/167315/167
609/962609/962
U.S. Gasoline Flow Outlook Scenario2010/2015, MBPD
Gulf to Midwest Movements Declining‐Pipelines Underutilized; Product Surplus Building in the Gulf Coast
pushing to Foreign markets, Florida on Water and Eastern Seaboard. Pipelines to Eastern Seaboard
constrained to access NYH; Expanding to allow access and displacement of Northeast product.
NYH/Linden
2010/20152010/2015
215/215215/215Foreign Markets/Surplus
617/300617/300
All Foreign To NES
94/6194/61
5
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
6
CENT
ENNIA
LENTERPRISE TECONOCOPHILLIPS
EXPLORER
MAGELLAN
FLINT HILLS
CPL_PPL
Products Terminal
RefineryProducts Pipeline
U.S. Refined Product Network & Midwest InteractionMidwest interacts with Gulf Coast supply via four pipelines to supplement
product shortfalls
AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabama
ArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansas
CaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCalifornia ColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColorado
ConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticut
DelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of Columbia
FloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFlorida
GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia
IdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdaho
IllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndiana
IowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowa
KansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentucky
LouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisiana
MaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaine
MassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusetts
MichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichigan
MinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesota
MississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippi
MissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouri
MontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontana
NebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraska
NevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevada
New HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew Hampshire
New JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew Jersey
New MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew Mexico
New YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew York
North CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina
North DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth Dakota
OhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhio
OklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahoma
OregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregon
PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvania
South CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina
South DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth Dakota
TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennessee
TexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexas
UtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtah VirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginia
WashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashington
West VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest Virginia
WisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsin
WyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyoming
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
ONTARIO
ABERDEEN
AKRON
ALEXANDRIA
AMARILLO
BAY CITY
BETTENDORF
BISMARCK
CANTON
CATLETTSBURG
CHAMPAIGN
CHEBOYGAN
CHILLICOTHE
CHIPPEWA FALLS
CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA
COLUMBUS
COUNCIL BLUFFS
DAYTONDECATUR
DES MOINES
DES PLAINS
DETROIT
DODGE CITY
DUBUQUE
DULUTH
FARGO‐JAMESTOWN
FARGO_MOOREHEAD
FLINT
FORT MADISON
FORT SMITH
GRAND FORKS
GRAND ISLAND
GREEN BAY
HAMMOND
HEYWORTHHUNTINGTON
INDIANAPOLIS
IOWA CITY
JACKSON
JUNCTION CITY
KIRKSVILLE
KNOXVILLE
LAFAYETTE_IN
LAWTON
LEXINGTON
LIMALINCOLN_NE
LOUISVILLE
MADISON
MANKATO
MARIETTA
MARSHALL
MASON CITY
MENARDMIDLAND
MILFORDMILWAUKEE
MINOT
MUNCIE
MUSKEGON
NILES
OKLAHOMA CITY
OWENSBORO
PADUCAH
PLMY
RAPID CITY
ROCHESTER_MN
ROCKFORD
SALINA
SCIOTOVILLE
SCOTTSBLUFF
SIOUX CITY
SIOUX FALLS
ST PAUL
ST. LOUIS WEST
SUPERIOR
TERRE HAUTE
TOLEDO
TOPEKA
TRAVERSE CITY
TULSA
WATERLOO
WAUPUN
WICHITA
YOUNGSTOWN
SPRINGFIELD
ST. JOSEPHKANSAS CITY
ST. LOUIS EASTLAWRENCEVILLE
EAI Terminal Micro‐
market
TERMINAL
PIPELINE
REFINING CENTER
USCCUSCC
USCC Refined Product NetworkEAI, Inc. Terminal Micro‐Markets, Pipelines & Refinery Hubs
7
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
8Primary Light Product DistributionChicago, Wood River, Robinson Refining Supply
Western Midwest product market orbit distribution density has been declining with surplus product (especially) gasoline in
the Eastern Midwest (Eastern Michigan & Ohio). Western MW supply moves east to the Detroit‐Lima corridor although
these movements have declined dramatically. Product moves as far south as Louisville (Marathon) and as far west as KC‐
Sioux Falls (via the BP proprietary V‐system)
Des Moines
ArdmoreOklahoma City
Duluth
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
LouisvilleMt. Vernon
Ponca City
Wynnewood
Coffeyville
McPherson
Tulsa
Minneapolis
Mandan
Indianapolis
Memphis
Canton
Catlettsburg
Milwaukee
Chicago Whiting
Robinson
Superior
El Dorado
Texas Panhandle
Chicago, Wood River,Robinson
SiouxCity
St. Louis
Detroit
Toledo
Lima
Wood
River
RefineryMarkets
Mt. Vernon‐CatlettsburgOhio River
Mid‐Continent and GC Pipeline Origin
Northern TierOrigin
TEPPCO –
CentennialGC PL Origin
Western MidcontinentDistribution Area
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Product Distribution by BargeProduct Distribution by BargeMississippi and Ohio River SystemsMississippi and Ohio River Systems
GasolineGasoline
Iowa
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Tennessee
Kentucky
Illinois Indiana
Ohio
St. Louis
Cape GirardeauNew Madrid
Wood River
E. St. LouisMt. Vernon
EvansvilleCairo
CinncinnatiMarietta
CovingtonAshland
Louisville
PaducahNashville
Memphis
Greenville
Vicksburg
Helena
Arkansas City
Gulf Coast Sources
Huntington
ParkersburgCharleston
Columbus
WheelingPittsburgh
Pennsylvania
W. Virginia
from Minneapolis
Baton Rouge
Pascagoula
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
10Product Supply ‐
Distribution Network EAI, Inc. Midwest Region
ChicagoBPExxonMobilCITGO
ChicagoBPExxonMobilCITGO
DetroitMarathonDetroitMarathon
t MC
t Valerot WRB
t Marathon
BPHuskyPBFE
CatlettsburgMarathon
Valerot Gulf Coast
St. Pault Flint Hills t Northern Tier Refining
Superior Calumet (to Close with Murphy
by 3Q‐4Q 2011)
t Texas Panhandle
BP,Buckeye,Magellan
Explorer
Explorer
Explorer
NORCO
West Shore
COP
COP
BP, Wolverine
Magellan
Buckeye
Inland,Sunoco,Buckeye
Marathon, B
uckeye
Buckeye,
Explo
rer,
Phillips
Marath
on
Marathon
Buckeye
Colonial, Plantation
BP
Inland
TEPPCO
,Bu
ckeye
TEPPCO
Indianapolis
Tennessee
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Bay City
Cleveland
St. Louis
Wood RiverWRB
Wisconsin
Northern Tier
Refining Areas
PipelineWaterTruck
Market Areas
ColumbusColumbus
Cardinal
SES/NES
Centennial
Wolverine
Buckeye
t Marathon
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
11
Midwest Midwest ––Ohio Downstream Business UpdateOhio Downstream Business Update
•
Ohio has very diverse supply access
including Gulf Coast, Western Midwest,
Southeast Michigan, Kentucky, Local
Ohio Refineries and access via the Ohio
River.
•
With demand declines and diverse
supply access, Eastern Midwest‐Ohio
generally “long”
in product supply
making it highly competitive.
•
Refineries undergoing change with
Sunoco selling their Toledo plant to PBF
Energy. BP and Husky own the Toledo
refinery as part of a JV which and plan to
convert to run more heavy crude from
Canada.
•
Ohio product surplus pushing to external
markets including Pittsburgh, Sarnia
Ontario and other Midwest markets.
CatlettsburgCatlettsburg
BCKY
MAP
Milwaukee
Louisville
Columbus
ClevelandChicagoChicagoChicago
Sarnia
Detroit
ToledoLima
Canton
RobinsonRobinsonRobinson
EPL,MPL,PPL
BCKY
TEPPCO BP
Norco,
WEST SHORE
SPL
INLA
ND
, TE
PPC
O
TEPPCO
BKY, INLAND
BKYSUNINLAND
SUN, BKY
MarketsMarkets
Refining Center
Pipeline
Waterborne
MRO
MRO
WLV, BP
BCKY
Evansville
Indianapolis
BCKYCincinnati ORPL
Wood River Wood Wood RiverRiver
Gulf Coast Gulf Gulf CoastCoast
MRO Dayton
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
12
CLEVELAND
YOUNGSTOWNAKRON
PITTSBURG
H
TOLEDO
LIM
A
COLUMBUS
DAYTO
N
CINCINNATI
INDIANAPOLIS
BP/InlandBuckeye PartnersMarathonSunocoTEPPCO
Products Terminal
Major Refinery
EAIMICRO-MARKET
AKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRON
CANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTON
CINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATI
CLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELAND
COLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUS
DAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTON
HUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTON
NDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLIS
LIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMA
MARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTA
MIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLAND
MORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWN
MUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIE
NILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILES
PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH
SCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLE
TOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARREN
YOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWN
Ohio Refined Product Transportation Network
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Crude Slate OutlookU.S. Central Corridor Refineries
Incremental heavy crude demand forecast at 532 MBPD by 2014 and 635 MBPD by 2016. This
assumes that BP‐Husky comes online by 2016. Light‐medium crude liberation on the order of 1000
consisting of 650 due to conversion to heavy and 350 MBPD due to demand decline.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020BP_HSKY_TLDO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 103 103 103 103 103MRO_DTRT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82BP_WHTN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 260 260 260 260 260 260 260WRB_WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191BASE HVY/BTM BLEND 477 521 484 423 562 643 675 689 840 680 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754LIGHT/MEDIUM 2887 2763 2711 2773 2723 2635 2603 2518 2373 2438 2524 2469 2231 2012 1839 1805 1678 1624 1585 1548 1530INCR_HVY 0 234 403 532 532 635 635 635 635 635
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
4000
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
4000
Incr
emen
tal S
uppl
y, M
BPD
Supp
ly, M
BPD
Light/Medium Crude Runs
Base Heavy/Bitumen Blend RunsWRB BP_WHTN
MRO-DTRT
Incremental Hvy/Bitumen Blends
BP-HUSKY TOLEDO
13
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
14
Wood River Refinery: The Wood River refinery is owned by COP and
Cenovus who are expanding the plants capacity to process heavy crude.
Expanding heavy crude processing capability to 240 MBPD (increase of 130 )
and overall crude processing capability by 50 MBPD to 356 MBPD.
Vacuum
tower and coker units to be completed by Q3‐2011 and startup to occur
Q42011.
BP Whiting Refinery: BP is converting and expanding their Whiting
refinery to increase heavy oil processing capability by 260 BMPD
and overall
crude processing capacity to 405 MBPD. Total light product production
capacity will be increased by approximately 40 MBPD. Completion
has been
delayed to mid‐2013.
BP-Husky Toledo Refinery: BP and Husky are pursuing conversion of
the Toledo refinery to process and additional 103 MBPD of heavy crude.
EAI, Inc. has this occurring by 2016.
Marathon Detroit Refinery: Marathon is increasing the capacity of their
Detroit refinery from 106 to 120 MBPD and increasing their heavy oil
processing capability by 80 MBPD. The plant will be able to produce an
additional 9.5 MBPD of light product. The project is due for completion by
Q4‐2012.
Midwest Refinery ConversionsReshaping the Refining Business and Crude Market
The Wood River, BP Whiting and Marathon Detroit refinery conversion projects will add 60‐110 of effective crude
processing capacity, 470‐532 (depending on Wood River incremental) of heavy crude upgrading capacity and 100 of
additional light product capacity over the 2011 to 2013 timeframe. The BP‐Husky Toledo project could add another 103
MBPD of heavy processing capability.
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Interregional Crude MovementWith Supply Region Volumes
ECNDOffshore: 276 MBPDImports: 652 MBPD
ECNDOffshore: 276 MBPDImports: 652 MBPD
WCSBSupply: 2565 MBPDDemand: 437 MBPD
WCSBSupply: 2565 MBPDDemand: 437 MBPD
ECNDDom Runs: 340 MBPDFRN Runs: 652 MBPD
ECNDDom Runs: 340 MBPDFRN Runs: 652 MBPD
WCDemand: BC 65 MBPDDemand: WC 178 MBPD
WCDemand: BC 65 MBPDDemand: WC 178 MBPD
360360
250250
895895
52CDN52
CDN
14801480
280280
115115
276276
150150
15
OVERALL CANADIAN CRUDE BALANCE
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Jan‐08
Mar‐08May‐08
Jul‐0
8
Sep‐0
8
Nov‐0
8
Jan‐09
Mar‐09May‐09
Jul‐0
9
Sep‐0
9
Nov‐0
9
Jan‐10
Mar‐10May‐10
Jul‐1
0
Sep‐1
0
Nov‐1
0
Jan‐11
MBPD
WCDN RUNS ECDN RUNS EX WCSB ECDN PRD FRN IMPORTS
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
North American Region OverviewOverall Crude Balance and Logistics
The
North
America
composite
outlook
includes
Canada,
Mexico
and
the
United
States. In
terms
of
overall
crude
balance,
total
crude
refined
was
17.7
MMBPD
and
total
crude
production was 10.9 MMBPD –
North America is crude short and imports significant volumes
from other producing areas, 6.7 MMBPD.
On an individual country basis, Canada produced 2.8 MMBPD and refined around 1.76 MBPD.
Canadian
crude
exports
to
the
U.S.
amounted
to
1.9
MMBPD
and
crude
imports
into
the
Canadian East Coast were around 0.8 MMBPD.
Mexico produced around 2.6 MMBPD, inputs into refining were 1.2 MMBPD and 1.4 MMBPD
were exported. Mexico has significant imports of refined products primarily from the U.S.
U.S.
production
amounted
to
5.5
MMBPD
and
refinery
runs
were
14.7
MMBPD. Net
U.S.
crude imports from outside of North America were approximately 6.0 MMBPD. The U.S. is a
major importer of refined products from countries outside of North America.
16
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
DEMANDHad been for
HEAVY SOURBLENDS
OFFSHOREMED SR
EAI, Inc. North American Crude Supply OutlookUnconventional outpaces Conventional
SYNTHETICCONDENSATE
LT SWEETETHANOL
Light Ends Dominant Streams
DILBITSYNBIT
WCSHigh Gasoil – Resid
Blends
GROWTH OFVERY LIGHT
SWEET GRADES
17
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011All Canadian Supply including Eastern Offshore. Raw streams before midstream blending or adjustment for CDN Refining
Canadian Crude Supply OutlookUnconstrained field grade transfers (before blending and upgrader conversion losses).
HVY_CONV
LT_MED NE_CDN_HVY
NE_CDN_LT
BIT2SYN
DILBIT
RAWBIT
SUNCOR
SYNCRUDE
ALBIAN
HIGH CASE
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
MPB
D
HORIZON LONG LAKE SYNBIT ALBIAN
SYNCRUDE SUNCOR RAWBIT DILBIT
BIT2SYN NE_CDN_LT NE_CDN_HVY LT_MED
HVY_CONV CAPP 6‐2011 GROWTH SUPPLY SPEC3
CAPP 6‐2011
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Canadian Export‐U.S. ImportCrude Oil Network
10398
161
142
15
89250
360
1480226
80
100165
TMPL
Edmonton
Hardisty
KEYSTONE XLEDMONTON TO HOUSTONWith BAKKEN MARKETLINK
KEYSTONE XLEDMONTON TO HOUSTONWith BAKKEN MARKETLINK
ENBRIDGESOUTHERN LIGHTS DILUENT RECYCLING
SOUTHERN ACCESSENBRIDGE Added 400 MBPD CAPYMAY 2009
PROJECT TARGET
A SOUTHERN ACCESS – FLANAGAN 400 MBPD
COMPLETED SPRING 2009
C ENBRIDGE GATEWAY (CRUDE) 580 MBPD/150 COND
D1D2
TMX-2 DONE, TMX 3 PLANNINGTMX NORTHERN EXPORT
300 MBPD BY 2015400 MBPD post 2015
E MONARCH – BP GAP Reversal CUSHING TO HOUSTON
250 MBPD BY 201x
F CDN WATERBORNE EXPORT TO US PSW
LIMITED VIA BURNABY
H KEYSTONE TO WOOD RIVERCUSHING LINK - 155 MBPD
DONE JUNE 2010DONE FEB 2011
I KEYSTONE XL – GULF COAST EXTENSION 500-700 MBPD
TARGET 2013CONNECT BAKER MT
Primary Canadian Crude Export PipelinesSecondary and Planned PipelinesRefining Centers
EST AVG 2010 THROUGHPUT MBPD773
PROJECT TARGET
J ENBRIDGE ALBERTA CLIPPER CAPY EXPAND BY 2010
WITH SOUTHERN ACCESS EXPAND
K EPPL – CUSHING TO HOUSTON CONCEPTTARGET 2012
L MUSTANG EXPANSION TO 140 MBPD
2009
M PEGASUS EXPANSION TO 95 MBPD
COMPLETED JUNE 2009
N TRANSCANADA- LOUISIANA ACCESS
CONCEPT
O LINE-9 REVERSAL – TRAILBREAKER 215 MBPD
ON HOLD
P SUNOCO – NORTHEAST 24 INCH400 MBPD
CONCEPT
R SPEARHEAD EXPANSION TO 190 MBPD
COMPLETED MAY2009
S ENBRIDGE ND (PORTAL) EXPANDED TO 161 MBPDPORTAL NORTH – 140 ND TO CDN
JAN 2010 –DONE
TARGET 2013
D1
C
E
F
H
J
A
L
MN
O
RAIL
P
Wichita
Salt Lake
Anacortes
Vancouver
Chicago
Sarnia
Cushing
Patoka
Mustang
Billings
Beaumont
Denver
Warren
Superior
Suncor New Jersey
Houston
Enbridge
ENBR-NDExpress
Butte
KEYSTONEWOOD RIVER – 435 6- 2010CUSHING - 155 CAPY 2- 2011
KEYSTONEWOOD RIVER – 435 6- 2010CUSHING - 155 CAPY 2- 2011
895
I
D2
S
K
250 q1
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Western Canadian Crude Distribution OutlookAll Grades; Units, MBPD
Total Western Supply for export to all markets(including Ontario) is forecast to increase from 1996 MBPD in
2010 to roughly 2964 and 3735 MBPD by 2015 and 2020 respectively. If prices remain stable and policy
does not limit bitumen based exports to the U.S. the export level could increase beyond that shown below.
Western Canada Refining
Puget SoundWestridge Waterborne
Rocky Mountains
Minneapolis
Superior
MichiganOhio
Warren
To Ontario
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Expo
rts, MBP
D
Chicago ‐Wood River /MC/GC Base plus Surplus
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
OXY
Mid Valley
Spearhead Lima
Seaway
SARNIA
Exxon Mobil
Express-Platte
Enbridge – Lakehead
Amdel
SHELL
Ozark
ChiCap
WICHITAFALLS
COP
Basin
WTG
Sunocolines x 3
Mustang
LINE 6B
Lakehead &Southern Access
Toldeo
BP
238
1140
180
193
623
219
275
150
460
325
340
White Cliffs
30
150
335
350
185
350
TEXAS PANHANDLEBORGER
VY- CENTER
CORSICANAJAL
MIDLANDODESSA
LONGVIEW
CHICAGO
W R
PATOKA
590
Seaway
CAPLINE
500
KEYSTONE XLTARGET 2013
CUSHINGDRUMRIGHT
161
115
435 MBPDKEYSTONE
STARTUP 2010
Canada-U.S. Central Corridor-Gulf Crude Network
150
150
Refineries
Pipeline Capacities, MBPD
21
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
M I S S
Greenbriar Limestone
Pocono Group
D E V O N I A N
New Albany - Ohio ShaleGeneseeTully Lime
MARCELLUS
OnandogaRidgeley SS
S I L
Salina GroupLockport LSCLINTON
Medina
O R D O V I C I A N
Reedsville Shale
UTICA FORMATION
TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS
Loysburg FM
Beekmatown GroupMid Valley
Spearhead
Lima
SARNIA
ChiCap
Mustang
LINE 6B
Lakehead &Southern Access
Toldeo
BP
238
219
275
150
460
340
CHICAGO
PLATTE-143KEYSTONE-435 PATOKA
CAPLINE
623
Enbridge – Lakehead %
%
%%
%%%
%%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%%
%%%
%
%
%
%
%
%%%
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%
%
Pegasus
Midwest and Eastern CrudePipelines and Refining
PHASE IIISouthern Access
CHEROKEEOZARK -
325
1140
275
Enbridge – LINE-9
240
LINE-7
ROBINSON
WARREN
SUPERIOR
DELAWARE CITY
YORKTOWN
CATLETTSBURG
MT VERNON
WOOD RIVER
EAGLE POINT
CANTON
LINDEN
MEMPHIS
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysMarcellus and Utica
Michigan Basin
Illinois Basin
M I S S
Greenbriar Limestone
Pocono Group
D E V O N I A N
New Albany - Ohio ShaleGeneseeTully Lime
MARCELLUS
OnandogaRidgeley SS
S I L
Salina GroupLockport LSCLINTON
Medina
O R D O V I C I A N
Reedsville Shale
UTICA FORMATION
TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS
Loysburg FM
Beekmatown Group
Utica ShalePlay Outline
Marcellus ShalePlay Outline
Kankanee Arch
New Albany (oil)Source rock
New Albany (gas)
Play Outline
GASTAR UTICA SHALE
15.5 MMCFD / 1100 BCPD. MARSHALL CO WV
CHESAPEAKE - ENERVEST780,000 ACRES, OHIO
TO INCREASE TO 8 RIGS BY YEAR END 2011.
ENCANA - DEVONDRILLING UTICA –COLLINGWOOD
SHALETESTS IN MICHIGAN
REX ENERGY PLAN TO HAVE 20 RIGS ACTIVE IN UTICA PLAY
OHIO & PA BY YEAR END 2011
AppalachianBasin
UTICAGAS
UTICAGAS-COND
UTICAOIL
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011
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