Early Warning and Response Analysis October 2012 · 2020. 4. 30. · Amhara, the eastern half of...

Released on October 12, 2012

Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected]

Early Warning and Response Analysis October 2012

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA

2 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012

Contents

Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................... 3

Early Warning and Response Summary for October 2012 ................................................................................ 4

Weather Conditions........................................................................................................................................... 5

Food Markets ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 8

Response ......................................................................................................................................................... 10

Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 11

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ACRONYMS:

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food

Security Sector:

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research

Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme



EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

During the coming month of October 2012, due to the southward retreat of rain producing

systems, southern and southeastern parts of the country will receive rainfall gradually. In

addition, the western and southwestern parts of the country will continue to receive rainfall.

The dry and windy weather conditions will prevail over northern, northeastern and central parts

of the country and occurrence of frost is likely over some highlands of the country. Thus,

farmers are advised to take appropriate measures to deal with the identified adverse weather

condition.

Near normal rainfall is expected over western and southern Oromiya, western Amhara,

Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, SNNPR and southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia. Thus, the

expected rainfall situation favors crops that have not attained their maturity stage and the late

sown crops in some areas. Moreover, it would also favor the availability of pasture and drinking

water over pastoral areas of south and southeastern parts of the country.

Between the months of August and September 2012, food prices increased at a similar rate to the

5 year average. In other words, the rate of increase was similar to seasonal expectations. The

level of prices remains very high when compared with the 5 year average.

Between the months of August to September 2012, cereal prices increased at a faster rate than

the five year average. In other words, the rate of increase was faster than seasonal expectations

(by approximately 2%). The level of prices remains very high when compared with the 5 year

average.

Since the very high increase in the price of cereals in Gambella between August and September

2012 follows strong price increases in previous months and an upward trend since November

2011, the purchasing power of consumers in this region is likely to have been significantly

affected.

TFP admissions at national level decreased slightly by 6.9 percent in August from July levels

maintaining a decrease in three months consecutively while regional level admissions varied.

TFP admissions are projected to either remain relatively stable at August levels or continue to

decrease for the September to November period.

As of the 4th October 2012, the relief and dispatch status for the sixth round stood at 62%

complete.



WEATHER CONDITIONS

September 2012 weather conditions

Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of

September 2012

Source: NMA

During the month of September 2012, pocket

areas of western Oromiya received rainfall greater

than 400mm. Parts of western Oromiya

experienced falls ranging from 300 – 400 mm.

Some areas of central, a few areas of northwestern

Amhara, the eastern half of Benishangul Gumuz,

parts of western Oromiya, parts of northwestern

SNNPR, the southeastern tip of Gambella and

central Tigray exhibited falls ranging from 200 –

300 mm. Most parts of eastern and central

Oromiya, most parts of the western half of

Amhara, the western half of Benishangul Gumuz,

most parts of Gambela, parts of central Tigray and

most parts of SNNPR received 100 – 200 mm.

Eastern, western and South Tigray, parts of

eastern Amhara, the southern tip of Afar, parts of

southern Oromiya, parts of southern and western

Somali experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100

mm. A Few areas of eastern Amhara, most parts

of the western half of Afar, parts of northern and

central Somaliand the southeastern tip of southern

Oromiya, exhibited 25 - 50 mm of rainfall. Most

parts of the eastern half of Afar, northern and

southeastern Somali received falls ranging from 5

-25 mm.

Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for

September 2012

Source: NMA

As can be seen from map 2, with the exception of

parts of eastern and a few areas of northwestern

Amhara, central and southern Afar, northwestern

Somali and the western margin of Benishangul

Gumuz most parts of the country experienced

normal to above normal rainfall during the month

under review.

Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month

September 2012

Source: NMA

Parts of western Oromiya and southeastern

Benishangul Gumuz received falls in greater than

25 rainy days. Parts of western Amhara, parts of

western and eastern Oromiya, northwestern



SNNPR, parts of Benishangul Gumuz and some

areas of eastern Oromiya received falls in 20 - 25

rainy days. Most parts of the country received

falls in 10 - 20 rainy days. Therefore, the observed

rainfall distribution could have a positive impact

on crops which are at different phonological

stages at this time of the year. On the other hand,

the remaining parts of the country received falls in

0 – 10 rainy days during the month of September.

Weather outlook and possible impact for the

coming month/October 1-31, 2012

Normally in relation to the continuation of the

southward retreat of the Inter Tropical Convergent

Zone (ITCZ), the rain producing systems weaken

from the northern parts of Meher producing areas

of the country while the southern and southeastern

parts of the country get their second seasonal

rainfall during the month of October. However the

rainfall conditions will continue over

northwestern and western parts including

southwestern parts of Ethiopia. On the other hand

the dry and windy weather conditions will prevail

over northern, northeastern and central parts of the

country and occurrence of frost is likely over

some highlands of the country.

During the coming month of October 2012 due to

the southward retreat of rain producing systems

southern and southeastern parts of the country will

receive rainfall gradually. In addition, the western

and southwestern parts of the country will

continue to get rainfall. On the contrary, dry and

windy weather conditions are anticipated over

the northern half of the country. Near normal

rainfall is expected over western and southern

Oromiya, western Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz,

Gambella, SNNPR and southeastern lowlands of

Ethiopia. Thus, the expected rainfall situation

would favor crops that are not attaining their

maturity stage and the late sown crops in some

areas. Moreover, it would also favor the

availability of pasture and drinking water over

pastoral areas of the south and southeastern parts

of the country. The prevailing dry and windy

weather conditions anticipated over northern half

of the country would affect the normal growth and

development of crops to some extent. Thus

farmers are advised to take appropriate measures

considering the above mentioned adverse weather

conditions. On the other hand, the expected sunny

and dry situation would favor harvest activities in

some lowland areas where crops are ready for

harvest.

FOOD MARKETS

Figure 1 Food Price Index, October 2011-

September 2012, Source: CSA

Looking at Figure 1 above, between the months of

August and September 2012, food prices

increased at a similar rate to the 5 year average. In

other words, the rate of increase was similar to

seasonal expectations. The level of prices remains

very high when compared with the 5 year average.



Figure 2 Cereal Price Index, October 2011-

September 2012, Source: CSA

Looking at figure 2 above, between the months of

August to September 2012, cereal prices increased

at a faster rate than the five year average. In other

words, the rate of increase was faster than

seasonal expectations (by approximately 2%). The

level of prices remains very high when compared

with the 5 year average.

Regional Prices

Looking at figure 3 (see appendix) there has been

a very steep increase in the price of cereals in

Gambella between the months of August and

September 2012. This is likely to have been

partially caused by transmission of high inflation

from South Sudan through cross border trade of

cereals. Strong cereal price increases have

continued in Tigray while moderate cereal price

increases have been observed in SNNP and

Amhara regions for the same period. Cereal

prices in Somali and Oromia regions on the other

hand appear to have stabilized and there has been

a fall in cereal prices in Benishangul Gumuz

during the same period.

Since the very high increase in the price of cereals

in Gambella follows strong price increases in

previous months and an upward trend since

November 2011, the purchasing power of

consumers in this region are likely to be

significantly affected and attention should be

given to this issue.

International Prices:

Figure 4 International Prices, September 2011-

2012, Source: FAO

In recent months, low expectations for Maize

harvests have resulted in high Maize prices and a

subsequent sustained increase in the cereal index.

Although Maize prices fell in September,

increases in the price of rice and wheat resulted in

a slight increase in the cereal index as a whole.

While tightening wheat supplies are currently a

concern, the news that the Russian Federation

would not impose export restrictions led to a fall

in Wheat prices in the second half of the month.

The Meat Price Index increased by 2.1% from

August. This was driven by grain intensive sectors

such as pig and poultry, while Bovine prices

increased very little and sheep prices remained

stable.



Commodity Food Prices:

Figure 5 Addis Ababa Nominal Wholesale

commodity prices September 2011-2012, Source:

EGTE

Looking at figure 5 above, it is clear that the

nominal wholesale price of Teff in Addis Ababa

has escalated sharply between January and

September 2012. In the previous month-between

August and September 2012, this price increase

has been (3.7%), which is considerably higher

than the change in the 5 year average during the

same period (-0.1%).

Similarly, the nominal wholesale price of

Sorghum in Addis Ababa has shown steady

increase between January and August 2012. In the

previous month-between August and September

2012, Sorghum prices stabilized, while the 5 year

average predicted that they would rise by (5.7%).

The nominal wholesale price of Wheat in Addis

Ababa has shown a mild incline between January

and September 2012. Price rises have been

moderated by government subsidies for Wheat.

The nominal wholesale price of Maize in Addis

Ababa has shown a mild incline between January

and September 2012. In the previous month-

between August and September 2012, Maize

prices exhibited a moderate rise of (3.8%) which

is considerably higher than the 5 year average

which predicted a decline of (-2.1%).

Forecast

The five year average predicts that cereal prices

will continue to rise until the arrival of the green

harvest from the Meher season. Similarly, trends

in food prices are likely to follow those of cereal

prices with a one month lag.

NUTRITION

Revision of hotspot woredas: Revision of

hotspot woredas is done in two phases. The first

phase that is normally done at regional level was

completed by the end of September. The second

phase was done at federal level involving WFP,

OCHA, FEWS NET, and DRMFSS/ENCU. The

federal level revision was expected to be

completed first week of October and the final

version to be released by mid October.

TFP admissions trends: The compiled monthly

TFP reports from 7 regions indicate that new TFP

admissions continued to decrease at national level

by 6.9 percent in August to 23,049 with 83.5

percent reporting rate from 24, 753 admissions in

July. Moreover, the August decrease was the

third consecutive decrease in monthly TFP

admissions after it reached its peak in May.

However, the August admissions was 13.5 percent

lower than the projected admission for that

specific month and 5.7 percent lower than the

average monthly TFP admissions estimated in

the July to December 2012 TFP caseload. In

other words, the July and August admissions

(47,802) represent 87 percent of the projected TFP

caseload for July and August period. This implies

that the nutrition situation at national level with

respect to TFP admissions is better than was

envisaged at the beginning of July when the HRD

was being prepared.

The August report brings the total number of

SAM managed in TFP sites from January to June

to 204,915 with over 86 percent of the reports

collected. The August TFP performance indicators

(86.2 cure rates, 0.4 death rates and 3.4 defaulter

rates) continued to be similar to the national

average for January to August 2012 and above the



National1 and Sphere standard cut off points.

Figure 1 (see appendix) below depicts, TFP

admission trend at national level from January to

August 2012.

Regionally, TFP admissions continued to

decrease in SNNPR in August by 21.3 percent

from 8099 in July to 6371 in August. However, its

contribution to overall TFP admission decreased

from 33 percent to 27.6 percent during the same

period, as food security continued to improve

supported by combinations of nutrition related

responses (Relief food distribution, TSF, TFP and

PSNP) implemented by partners.

While, SNNPR reported consistent decrease, other

regions such as Oromiya, Afar and Amhara

reported increase in new TFP admissions in

August by 6.7, 13.9 and 50.4 percent respectively.

The increase in admission was partly linked with

poor food security in some of the woredas that

had not recovered from the drought in parts of

Oromiya and Amhara regions and therefore slight

fluctuation in TFP admissions is expected during

this period. Community Health Day (CHD)

screening done in Oromiya in East and West

Hararghe zones resulted in more children being

enrolled for TFP services. In Afar, community

based screening for implementation of TSF by

nutrition cluster partners contributed to 50 percent

increase as well as poor food security situation in

some of the woredas due to the ongoing drought.

In Tigray, TFP admissions continued to fluctuate

downward as there was no CHD screening

conducted. In Somali the reporting rate was still

below 80 percent (currently at 62%) and therefore

admission trends for August cannot be described

with certainty. Follow up of the remaining reports

was still going on at regional level.

Meanwhile, UNICEF informed the FMOH and

DRMFSS that while conducting routine quality

assurance of RUTF two out six batches tested

positive for Cronobacter Sakazakii bacterium. The

two batches contaminated with the bacterium have

been put on quarantine and will not be distributed

and arrangement will be made for disposal of the

1 Cure rate>75%, death rate< 5% and defaulter

rate<15%

contaminated batches. UNICEF will continue

testing any procured batches for cronobacter

Sakazakii to ensure that RUTF used for SAM

management are free from contamination.

TSF admissions and coverage: In August,

identification and enrolment of moderately

malnourished children and pregnant and lactating

women was done by NGOs in 54 woredas across

the country. According to the monthly TSF update

received from NGOs2, a total of 33,569 MAM

cases, 58.3 percent of them being under-five

children were enrolled in TSF programmes in the

54 hotspot woredas. WFP update for TSF

response for July to September was reported in the

last bulletin.

However, during the July to August period, WFP

and NGOs enrolled a total of 211,940

beneficiaries (i.e. about 31 percent of the July to

December HRD estimates) between July and

September of which 59.2 percent were supported

by WFP. The August update from NGOs

operational woredas makes the total of MAM

cases enrolled in TSF programmes from January

to August at national level to 706,055 of which

65.43 percent were reached by WFP supported

TSF.

Emergency nutrition surveys:

Four surveys were conducted by nutrition cluster

partners (1- Somali- Shegosh woreda; 2 in

Oromiya -Ginnir and Anchar woredas and 1 in

SNNPR - Damot Pulasa). The four survey reports

were submitted to federal ENCU in early October

for quality checking. Quality assurance was

expected to be completed in mid October and their

respective results will be reported in the

November bulletin.

Meanwhile, preparations for the third round of bi-

annual surveys to be conducted in six regions

(SNNPR, Oromiya, Amhara, Afar, Somali and

2 SC UK TSF beneficiaries from Afar region is not

included as reports were not yet submitted to the ENCU by the time of preparing this bulletin 3 Note that WFP accounted 68.7 percent of the

January to July caseload not 62 percent as it was mistakenly reported earlier.



Tigray) commenced. The surveys were expected

to be implemented from mid October to mid

November. In order to standardize the

implementation of the bi-annual surveys in the six

regions, a total of 26 participants from the

respective regional EW bureaus, regional

UNICEF sub offices and regional ENCUs

involved in bi-annual surveys were trained on

SMART methodology for emergency nutrition

assessments for five days in Addis Ababa.

Strengthening nutrition response in hotspot

woredas: The ENCU organized a workshop for

nutrition cluster partners in September during

which a strategic nutrition response plan and road

map for nutrition cluster response for July to

December 2012 was developed. The draft

response plan was still being finalized before it is

shared with all nutrition cluster partners.

Meanwhile, the MAM guideline the development

of which started in 2011 and finalized in 2012 was

approved by the DRMFSS and circulated to all

MANTF members. All partners involved in

management of moderate Acute Malnutrition in

Ethiopia are required to use this MAM guideline

from the 1st October 2012.

Outlook for September to November 2012

As projected earlier, TFP admissions for the

September to November period will continue to

either stabilize at August levels or decrease

slightly at around 6 percent per month at national

level as estimated in the Jul to Dec 2012 HRD, as

food security, water availability and pasture for

animals continues to improve for most parts of the

country. No sharp decrease in TFP admissions is

expected since the overall monthly decrease

dropped significantly from about 17 percent (

revised as July data was retrospectively updated,

initially it was 18%) to 6.9 percent in August.

Below this level, the numerical decrease will not

be big and therefore is not likely to affect the

overall monthly admissions. Fluctuations in TFP

admissions at regional, zonal and woreda level

will continue as expected.

Since TFP programme expansion in the regions

will continue to add new SAM cases, though

small in number, this will be likely to stabilize the

average admissions per month.

As explained in the September bulletin, the

revised hotspot woreda list is expected to be

released in mid October 2012. The list is likely to

include new hotspot woredas that were not

targeted before and add new SAM and MAM

beneficiaries associated with identification of new

cases through monthly screening, community

mobilization and active case finding as part of the

nutrition response package.

RESPONSE

As of the 4th October 2012, the relief and dispatch

status for the sixth round stood at 62% complete.

Dispatch was close to completion in SNNPR

(99%), Afar (96%) and Amhara (94%). Much of

the remaining dispatch is due in Oromia (65%)

and Somali (54%) complete respectively.

Dispatch to Tigray has yet to begin as is also the

case in Dire-Dawa and Harari.



APPENDIX-LEAP PRODUCTS

I RAINFALL ANALYSIS

OPTION 1: DAKADAL RAINFALL ESTIMATE (mm)

September 1-10,2012 September 11-20,2012 September 21-30, 2012 Legend

Esti

mat

ed R

ain

fall

Rainfall in mm

No

rmal

R

ain

fall

(Ave

rage

of

19

95

-20

10

)

Rainfall in mm

Esti

mat

ed R

ain

fall

Ver

sus

No

rmal

Rainfall Diff. in

mm



ESTIMATED CUMMLATIVE

RAINFALL, September, 2012

NORMAL CUMMLATIVE RAIN,

September

CUMMLATIVE VERSUS NORMAL,

September , 2012

Esti

mat

ed C

um

ula

tive

Rai

n



II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) September 2012

September 1-10 September 11-20 September 21-30 Legend

Act

ual

in F

ract

ion

No

rmal

in

Fra

ctio

n (

Ave

rage

of

19

95

-20

10

)

Act

ual

Ver

sus

No

rmal

Vegetation

Greenness

(NDVI) in

fraction -

[Compared to

Normal]



Relief Dispatch Status

6th Round 2012 Relief food dispatch status made by DRMFSS, JEOP and WFP (H&Spokes), as of 04 Oct, 2012

Region Benef

Allocated amount (MT) Dispatched amount (MT) Dispatch status (%)

DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total

Afar 145,189 2,690 0 0 2,690 2,577 0 0 2,577 96 0 0 96

Amhara 288,544 3,282 2,174 0 5,456 3,150 1,960 0 5,110 96 90 0 94

B.Gumuz 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gambella 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oromia 1,017,023 10,705 7,068 0 17,773 7,995 3,594 0 11,589 75 51 0 65

SNNPR 304,824 4,239 1,399 0 5,638 4,170 1,399 5,569 98 100 0 99

Somali 1,539,279 0 1,950 26,565 28,515 0 1,391 14,014 15,405 0 71 53 54

Tigray 393,949 4,014 3,029 0 7,043 1,809 227 0 2,036 0 7 0 0

Dire-Dawa 65,509 0 1,214 0 1,214 0 227 0 227 0 19 0 0

Harari 8,034 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 3,762,351 24,929 16,834 26,565 68,328 19,701 8,798 14,014 42,513 79 52 53 62





Figure 1: New monthly TFP admissions and performance indicator trends, January to

August 2012 in Ethiopia



Figure 2: Trends in new TFP admissions and performance indicators, January to August

2012 in SNNPR

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