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"Earthquakes in your backyard"
Charles Scawthorn, S.E.
Visiting ResearcherPacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC Berkeley
Invited Lecture, EPS 20
Oct 29, 2015
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Outline• Self‐introduction
• Brief history of post‐earthquake investigations
• Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations
• Earthquake effects
– In past earthquakes
– In coming US earthquakes
• Reducing Vulnerability / Enhancing Resilience
– In general
– In the Bay Area
• Concluding Remarks
• Q&A
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Outline
• give some examples from your international "collection" of surveys• explain in general remarks what the most devastating
consequences of strong EQ can be as the class is titled "Earthquakes in your backyard" it would be great if you can then focus on some examples from California,
• explain what we can do specifically in Northern California to reduce our vulnerability,
• and lastly, since you have been in this business for decades, assess if things here in California have been improved and if we are better off to deal with a big EQ now than we were 20 years ago.
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http://peer.berkeley.edu/
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Lecture pdf posted here
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Charles Scawthorn• Education
• B.E. (The Cooper Union, New York City)
• MSCE (Lehigh University, Penn.)• D.Eng. (Kyoto University, Urban Seismic Risk: Analysis and Mitigation)
• Consulting Engineer (San Francisco, London, Tokyo) 1970s‐2003• Dames & Moore• EQE: Senior Vice President $80 million / year global consulting firm, 10 countries• Founded / ran Tokyo office 1995‐1998• co‐founder EQECAT• Projects all over the world
• Professor, Kyoto University (2003 ‐ 2008)• Earthquake Risk Reduction• Infrastructure Risk Management
• 2008 • Visiting Professor (Stanford, UC Berkeley, Waseda [Tokyo], Beijing Normal University) • Research (NSF, USGS, SSC, WRN…)• Consultant:
• government agencies (World Bank, FEMA, State of California…)• Real estate and insurance entities
6
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Disaster Responses / Investigations
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Earthquake Theories
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• felt across Europe • buildings collapsed, many fires
and a massive tsunami
• massive destruction of Lisbon,
one of the largest and most
beautiful cities in Europe
• 60,000+ dead
• Nov 1: All Saints’ Day
• inspired Voltaire's Candide,
who ridiculed a world closely
overseen by a benevolent deity "the best of all possible worlds“?
1755 Lisbon earthquake
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1755 Lisbon EQ
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Date Hazard Vulnerability Exposure Risk Event/Comment / Other
1755 Lisbon Earthquake – structural, urban planning and other mitigations developed, but don’t spread
1783 Schiantarelli quantifies damage (Calabria earthquake, soon after Lisbon and with greater losses, spurs some attention to earthquakes
1811-12 New Madrid (US) earthquakes – no advances
1828 seismic intensity quantified by Egen (Belgian earthquake), not much used however
1850s Ft. Tejon (US), Edo Ansei (Japan) earthquakes – no advances
1850 Mallet’s Map – lays out bands of seismicity, shows plate boundaries and regions of high risk at a glance. Well-known in seismology, doesn’t seem to have had any
effect related to risk
1867 D.A. Sanborn National Insurance Diagram Bureau established in New York City – growth in
development of fire insurance maps
1874 Rossi (Italian), defines intensity scale
1881 Forel (Swiss) combines his scale with Rossi’s, for Rossi-Forel Scale, with ten degrees of intensity (first scale to be
widely used internationally)
1880 Milne, Ewing, Gray arrive Japan, build first good seismograph;
Seismological Society of Japan founded (world’s first)
1883 Giuseppe Mercalli (1850-1914) improves Rossi-Forel scale but still keeps ten degrees
1886 Charleston (US) earthquake – good documentation including sand blows and building damage, but not much advancement of science or mitigation
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Rossi‐Forel Intensity Scale (1883)
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1887 Mt. Hamilton and Berkeley Seismological Observatories established (first in western
Hemisphere)
1891 Lawson maps San Andreas fault (but believes it’s a thrust fault)
1891 Nobi earthquake – establishment of Imperial Earthquake Investigation Committee (multidisciplinary); Fusakichi Omori (1868-1923) surveys overturned stone-lanterns
etc, draws acceleration isoseismals, develops seven degree intensity scale, fore-runner of today’s JMA scale.
1880s-1890s
Increasing seismic design in San Francisco, use of bond iron, high-rise
buildings (q.v.. Tobriner)
1892 Seismological Soc.Japan dissolved
1902 Adolfo Cancani extends Mercalli scale to twelve degrees, with estimated ground acceleration values but poor
qualitative descriptions, resulting in the Mercalli-Cancani scale.
1905 Anderson defines normal, reverse and strike-slip faulting modes
NBFU survey of San Francisco, identifying great fire risk
1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire Isoseismals mapped by Wood,;
significant detail in the city of San Francisco itself, using ad hoc
intensity scale (Lawson, 1908)
Structural effects documented (USGS, 1907), finding that
engineered buildings not substantially damaged by the
earthquake or fire, if reasonably well fire-protected to begin with.
Founding of Seismological Society of America; Japanese engineers visit and investigate effects;
Emphasis on fire, and downplaying of earthquake by City (and engineers). Areas of ‘infirm ground’ noted
and used by the San Francisco Fire Department in subsequent construction of special high pressure
water system
1908 - 1909
Messina (Italy) earthquake Italian committee develops equivalent lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.
Sano (Japan) independently develops ELF method
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Cause of Earthquakes – elastic rebound H.L. Reid, based on
observations in 1906 San Francisco earthquake, formulated “theory of elastic rebound”
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1908 - 1909
Messina (Italy) earthquake Italian committee develops equivalent lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.
Sano (Japan) independently develops ELF method
1908 Construction of SFFD AWSS
1911 Hugo F. Reid (1859-1944) expounds elastic rebound theory (Reid, 1911), based on studies of
1906 earthquake
1912 Sieberg provides full descriptions of each degree of Mercalli-Cancani scale. Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg or
MCS Scale twelve-degree scale still in use in Southern Europe.
1913-1915
Wegener propounds “Origin of Continents and Oceans” (ie, plate
tectonics). Is ignored.
1920s Modern Caltech and its Seismo Lab established; Wood and
Anderson develop and deploy standard torsion seismograph;
Richter joins in 1925.
Frank Knight publishes Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, a classic in
risk management.
Tokyo earthquake and Fire 1923
IEIC becomes Earthquake Research Institute (Suyehiro first
director)
Naito’s buildings undamaged; Japanese seismic building code using Sano seismic coefficient method (aka, ELF, equivalent lateral force)
ASCE sends team to
investigate
1923-24 Bailey Willis series on “Earthquake Risk in California” in BSSA
1925 Santa Barbara (US) earthquake
Insurance industry earthquake losses, J.R. Freeman takes interest
1926 Palo Alto seismic code
John von Neumann presents first paper on theory of games, at
University of Göttingen,.
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1926 Prof. R. Martel (Caltech) attends Earthquake Conference in Japan, to learn from 1923 events.
1927 UBC seismic code, emulates ELF approach from Japanese code
Mississippi floods
1929 Seismological Soc. Japan re-established J.R. Freeman attends World Engg. Conf. in Tokyo, meets Martel and Suyehiro
1930 Freeman (BSSA, 1930) presents plan for strong motion network and other concepts; subsequently lobbies
vigorously.
1931 Wood and Neumann publish MMI (1931) Gutenberg joins Caltech
.
1932 (a) Strong Motion instrumentation authorized for US Coast and Geodetic Survey, NBS builds instruments with assistance from
MIT and U. Va., instruments deployed in California; (b) USC&GS performs ambient and forced vibration surveys of buildings in
California, leading to rule for building natural period ( T = 0.1 N, where N is number of stories).
Freeman publishes “Earthquake Damage and Earthquake insurance”
Suyehiro invited to US, lectures at Berkeley, Stanford, Caltech and MIT, great interest and
appreciation
1933 Long Beach Earthquake: First strong motion recording (27
individual components); PGA
Field and Riley Acts (California) require seismic design for schools and other
buildings, respectively.
1933 Structural response spectra (Biot, 1933; Housner, 1941)
1935 Richter defines earthquake magnitude (Wadati)
1936 Federal Navigation Act of 1936 requires U.S. Corps of Engineers carry out projects for improvement of
waterways when total benefits of a project to whomsoever exceed the costs of that project.
Beginning of Benefit-Cost Analysis.
Martel, Suyehiro, Gutenberg, Anderson
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1906 San Francisco EQ Intensity map
(RF scale)
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Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale(Wood Neumann, 1931)
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Comparison of Intensity Scales
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Computed Intensity Maps
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EPICENTERM 6.6 January 17, 1994
MMI
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Pacific Ocean
17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake Intensity Estimate (created 11am, 6 hours after event)
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Northridge Intensity Mapscomputed reported
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Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations
Two fundamental purposes:
1. Initial reconnaissance, to understand • what has happened (and not happened)• what are significant aspects, for more detailed investigations
2. Detailed surveys, to acquire statistically meaningful data
This data is used to construct fragility and vulnerability functions
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Fragility and Vulnerability
fragility
Fragility:Prob (DS | H) = CDF (DS | H) (ie, a probability)
DS = damage stateH = hazard
Used for systems analysis
vulnerability
Vulnerability:Vuln = Σ (cost |DS) pdf (DS |H)
= mean cost | H
Used for benefit‐cost decision‐making
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1964 Niigata earthquake
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Earthquake + Loose Sandy Soil
Soil Settles, Densifies, Water under Pressure,LIQUEFACTION
Liquefaction
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1995 Kobe Earthquake
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1999 Turkey Earthquake
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1999 Turkey Earthquake
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Subsidence south shore of Izmit Bay east of Golchuk – note crane and buildings in water, indicating subsided quay or pier.
Subsidence
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1999 Turkey ‐ faulting
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2.2 m (87 inches) vertical fault scarp, east of Golchuk (nr Ford
plant)
17 Aug 99 Izmit Earthquake
Fault scarp
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Collapsed five story building intersected by faulting – arrow shows where fault intersected the building, with
attendant differential settlement.
Building on Fault
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Building on Fault
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Adapazari
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Overturned building in Adapazari, due to foundation failure (detail of underside of
foundation).
Building Collapse ‐ Adapazari
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Fire at Refinery
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and
tsunami
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1993 Nanseioki
earthquake and tsunami
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and
tsunami
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and tsunami
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BASIC INFORMATION(Japan Meteorological Agency
http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/jma/indexe.html)
•- Saturday, October 23, 2004 • 5:56 PM (Local time at epicenter)•- Magnitude 6.8•- Location 37.3°N, 138.8°E•- Depth about 20km
MMI
12
10+
9
8+
8‐
6
5
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Typical debris flow, exhibiting a narrow path and long run out (Photo: S. Kieffer)
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Landslide dam in tributary valley formed by debris flow / translational soil sliding, Yamakoshi epicentral area (r) Inundation
homes upstream of landslide dam (Photos: K. Kelson).
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vertical joint release surfaces. (Photo: S. Kieffer)
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Derailed Shinkansen(Photo: C. Scawthorn)
1.9 km to stop
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Sri Lanka – Coastal Transportation Corridor (typ)
Zone of destruction(~ 100s m, typ)
Runup 3 m (typ)10 m max (at Hambantota, SW coast)
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Water
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Banda Aceh Telecom
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EQEHAZ Intensity Distribution
EPICENTERM 6.6 January 17, 1994
MMI
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Pacific Ocean
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Steel Moment Frame Connection Problem
More than 200 structures in Los Angeles experienced unanticipated brittle fractures in connections
Similar damage has occurred in other earthquakes
— Kobe
— Loma Prieta
— Landers
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Crack propagating from beam-column weld at left, through column flange and then into the column web
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Anheuser ‐ Busch BreweryVan Nuys (Los Angeles), CA
Facility Description
• Original construction in 1954
• Buildings included several reinforced concrete shear wall and steel braced and moment frame structures
• Tremendous B.I. exposure if fermentation tanks damaged
• One of the largest industrial facilities affected by the earthquake
• Total replacement value = $1.3 billion (1993)
980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\73
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Earthquake Risk Reduction Program (ERRP)Phase 1 Report (PML Excerpt)
* Extended B.I.
LOCATION TYPE PML RISK RISK ISSUES
Brewhouse Concrete 35% High Collapse, B.I.*
Stockhouses Concrete 30% to High to Collapse, B.I. *#1, #2, #3 50% V. high
Power plant Steel 35% High Safety, B.I.
Power plant Concrete 25% Mod. B.I., damage
Fire water tank Steel plate 50% V. high Fire
Fuel oil tank Steel plate 50% V. high Fire
Pumphouse Prefab. bldg. 10% Low
Pipeway bridges Steel 30% High Safety, B.I.
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Before Strengthening After Earthquake
The strengthened brewhouse was not damaged.
Note the new shear wall (missing windows)
980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\75
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The strengthened boiler (power) plant was not damaged. The exterior bracing was added so that operations would not be interrupted.
Before Strengthening
After Earthquake
980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\76
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The strengthened (and key) fermentation tanks.
Before Strengthening
After Earthquake
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This is what happens to fermentation tanks when they are not properly anchored.
This is a very good example of why we continue to investigate earthquakes.
The Hakutsuru Sake Brewery in Kobe earthquakewas not retrofitted and was heavily damaged.
980000.700\Modeleq2.ppt\78
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Event Summary
Mw: 9.0
Date: 11 March 2011 Time: LT 2:45pm UTC 5:46am
Name:
Tohoku Region Pacific Offshore Earthquake(Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster)
Epicenter: 38.322°N 142.369°E
Felt: Osaka
Killed: ~ 26,000 (14,161 confirmed dead, 11,536 missing)
Housing damage: 77,000 destroyed, 260,000 damaged
Displaced: 160,000
Economic Loss: $600 billion?
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Same scale
Relevance
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Item Japan California USA
Area (mns sq km) 0.378 .424 9.827
Popul (mns) 127.96 37.26 308.75
Popul Density (p / sq km) 337 234 33.7
GDP nom (bns) $5.46 $1.76 $14.62
GDP pc $42,820 $47.13
2010: 126.22 mn
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Plate boundaries and motions
Bird, P. (2003) An updated digital model of plate boundaries. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 4, 1027‐1079.
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Cascadia rupture from Atwater, B. F., Musumi‐Rokkaku, S., Satake, K., Tsuji, Y., Ueda, K. & D.K. Yamaguchi (2005) The Orphan Tsunami of 1700—Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America. U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1707, Prepared by U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Japan (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), the University of Tokyo, and the University of Washington. Published in association with University of Washington Press.
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Tohoku Tsunami entering San Francisco Bay
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Kyoto Univ.28‐30 March
PEER – EERI11‐12 April
Kyoto Univ.18‐20 April Survey Routes
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Soma Port
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Soma Energy Port
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Shinchi
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Observations –Tsunami effects
Transport – Rail 4
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Transport – Airports 2
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Ports ‐ Fishing
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Damaged VesselsName DWT
Drilling ship Chikyu 27161
Coral Ring 75395
Shirouma 77739
Shiramizu 91439
C. S. Victory 32385
Chinasteel Integrity 175775
Asia Symphony 6175
Glovis Mercury 6901
Khrizolitoviy 523
Koshin Maru 1592
Emu Arrow 51800
Total 546885
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Energy – Nuclear Power
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Fire following earthquake
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VI
VI
VII
VIII
MMI Population
VI 199,000
VII 90,000
VIII 36,000
Utilities• Potable Water
• Waste Water
• Electric Power
• Natural Gas
• Communications
• Oil (crude and refined)
Transportation• Airport
• Railway
• Highway (x bridges)
• Light Rail
• Bus
• Port
• Ferry
Fire following earthquake
24 Aug 2014 M6 Napa Earthquake
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USGS ShakeOut Exercise
200 million sq ft ($60 bn dollar) loss due to fire following earthquake
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M7.05 Mainshock SA(0.3 sec)4:18 PM Wed 18 Apr 2018
Probability: 1 in 200 each year
2.1m 0.9m 0.5‐1.4m
1.7m 0m
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Liquefaction
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Pipeline Breaks due to Shaking
DRAFT ‐‐ DO NOT CITE OR DISSEMINATE ‐‐ FOR SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT ONLY
4,600 breaks due to shaking
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Are we better off than we were 20 years ago?
Well, consider:
• ~24,000 URM buildings in Calif. have been mitigated
• Caltrans has analyzed / retrofitted all its overpasses (in California!)
• San Francisco has instituted CAPSS / soft story program
• Thousands of commercial buildings have been retrofitted
• UC Berkeley campus “entirely” mitigated
• PG&E has replaced all its cast iron pipe
• EBMUD, SFPUC, CCWD, MMWD, SCVWD, SJWC… done or in process
• Bay Bridge has been improved (maybe)
• LA is getting started (!)
• PG&E replaced all its gas meters with “smart meters” (but no gas shutoff device! – only eliminates meter readers)
• Schools have been mitigated since 1930s (but many now need updated retrofitting – Berkeley USD a model for this)
• Hospitals – slooooowly being done
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Concluding Remarks
• Earthquakes cause great suffering and loss
• What damage? Where? Why? has been the subject of > 100 years of investigations and research
• Our understanding accelerated from mid‐20th C
• Some of that understanding has been transmitted to you today
• But there’s still a lot to be done
• That’ll be your job
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Thank you
Copy of this presentation at
http://www.sparisk.com/publications.htm