EB40: Tsunamis; Is the U.S. at Risk
Bill Lang, CBCPBusiness Continuity Program Manager
VIRTUAL CARE PROVIDER INC. (VCPI)
SIMPLIFYING SIMPLIFYING TECHNOLOGY FOR LONGTECHNOLOGY FOR LONG--
TERM CARETERM CARE
Learning Objectives
• The causes of tsunamis • Magnitude of previous tsunamis• Tsunami Warning Systems• Parts of the USA exposed to the threat• Precautions to mitigate the risk
The causes of tsunamis
• Tsunamis AKA seismic sea waves– Mistakenly called “tidal waves”
• Series of enormous waves created by– Earthquake/tectonics– Volcanic eruption– Landslide– Asteroid/meteorite (bolide impact)– Pressurized gas deposits (gas hydrates)
• Sources – Local– Remote (teletsunami)
Magnitude of previous tsunamis• Tsunami Magnitude Characterize tsunami strength based on
the maximum wave amplitude at the source (Iida, 1963) or an average of amplitudes in the source region (Soloviev and Go, 1974). Tsunami magnitude (m,) is
mt =Log2 *Hwhere “H’ is the maximum height reached in meters
Magnitude of previous tsunamis• USA historic
National Geophysical Data Center/USGS | Before and after picture of a lighthouse on Unimak Island, Alaska wiped out by the 1946 tsunami generated by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in the Aleutian Trench 90 miles away. A 100-foot-tall tsunami washed away all but the base of the 100-foot-tall, reinforced concrete building.
Region M<1M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 TotalsAlaska 73 7 6 9 9 0 104West Coast 93 12 7 8 10 0 130Hawaii 78 22 14 10 12 1 137East Coast 6 1 1 1 2 0 11PR&VI 12 0 0 0 0 0 12Totals 262 42 28 28 33 1 371
Magnitude of previous tsunamis
• USA and others
Death Toll Event Location Date$> 250,000 Indian Ocean earthquake with tsunami Indian Ocean 2004100,000 1755 Lisbon earthquake, tsunami, earthquake, fire Portugal, Morocco and United Kingdom (Cornwall) 175570,000 Messina, Italy earthquake and tsunami Italy 190836,000 Krakatoa volcano explosion Indonesia 188330,000 Tokaido-Nankaido Japan 170727,000 Japan 182625,674 1868 Arica earthquake Chile 186822,070 Sanriku Japan 189615,030 Caused by Mount Unzen, Southwest Kyūshū Japan 179213,486 Ryukyu Trench 17715,233 Tokaido-Kashima Japan 17035,000 Nankaido Japan 16055,000 Moro Gulf Philippines 19764,000 Borneo Indonesia 19523,000 Papua New Guinea 19983,008 Sanriku Japan 19332,300 Kuril, Kamchatka Russia 19522,000 Great Chilean Earthquake Chile, United States (Hawaii), Philippines and Japan 19602,000 Bristol Channel, possible tsunami United Kingdom 16071,223 Tonankai Japan 1944540 Java earthquake Indonesia 2006202 Okushiri Japan 1993173 Aleutian Island earthquake United States (Alaska) and (Hawaii) 1946131 Good Friday Earthquake United States (Alaska) and (Hawaii) 1964102 Northern Honshu Japan 198352 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake Solomon Islands 200746 United States (Hawaii) 186828 1929 Grand Banks earthquake Placentia Bay Canada (Newfoundland) 192923 Nice France 1979
Tsunami Warning Systems
• Roles and responsibilities– World wide
• United Nations Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) through the International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC)
• USA a founding member of Group of Earth Observers (GEO) leading to the creation of voluntary program Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
– USA• NOAA • USGS • FEMA • Governments of States and Territories
Tsunami Warning Systems
• USA monitoring organizations– NOAA
• West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (WC/PTWC)• Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC)
Tsunami Warning Systems
• Information tracking– NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of
Tsunamis (DART) utilizing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)
• Seismic sensors feeding real-time data into on-line forecast models
• Buoys
Tsunami Warning Systems
• Information tracking– Coastal tide stations (GLOSS)
• NOAA National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON)– USGS seismic stations– Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) Center
for Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts (TIME) – Envirtech Tsunami Warning System– NASA GPS land movement detection– NASA Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) Sea
Height
Tsunami Warning Systems
• Information tracking– U.S. Navy's SOund SUrveillance System (SOSUS)– NOAA Moored Autonomous Hydrophones (VENTS) – ORION
• Large seismic detection network covering the Juan de Fuca / Explorer / Gorda plates
– NASA/French Jason and Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry
– SEASONDE high frequency land based RADAR– Pressure-based acoustically coupled tsunami detector
(PACT)
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Tectonics threat– Huge plates of earth’s crust
floating on mantle– Convergent boundary
• Very likely to cause tsunami– Transform boundary
• Almost never causes tsunami(?)– Divergent boundary
• Rarely causes tsunami– Tsunami conclusions
• Atlantic very low risk• Pacific very high risk• Inland very low risk
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Earthquake threat– Fueled by tectonics (convergent boundaries)– Crustal faults move against each other– Strike-slip
• Almost never causes tsunamis(?)– Others
• Very likely to cause tsunamis– Tsunami conclusions
• Atlantic very low risk• Pacific very high risk• Inland low risk
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Volcano threat– Location on or near water– Tsunamis triggered by
• Quakes• Eruptions/landslides/pyroclastic flows
– Tsunami conclusions• Atlantic low risk• Pacific high risk• Inland Very low risk
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Landslide threat– Location bordering water or under water– Few hazard analysis programs– Tsunamis triggered by
• Quakes• Eruptions• Weathering/rain
– Tsunami conclusions• Atlantic low risk• Pacific high risk• Inland almost no risk
Massive collapse of Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands caused a tsunami to radiate all the way across the Atlantic Ocean to the East Coast. PHOTOGRAPH BY J. SCHWAKE/ALAMY
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Asteroid/meteorite threat• Large >= 1km diameter• 943 potentially hazardous asteroids
– Location in or near water– Water covers most of earth
• Probability high for water impact– Tsunamis triggered by
• Impact/aftershocks• Landslides
– Tsunami conclusions• Atlantic very low risk• Pacific very low risk• Inland very low risk• But a very high impact
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Pressurized gas deposits threat (gas hydrates)– Location under water
• Stabilized by cold and pressure– Tsunamis triggered by
• Gas eruptions– Water displacement– Landslides– Quakes
– Tsunami conclusions• Atlantic medium risk• Pacific medium risk• Inland very low risk
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat
• Special threats– Island wrap around– Harbor resonance– Lakes
• Tahoe/FDR seismic• The Great Lakes and others
– Seismic seiches – Bays
• Lituya Bay AK landslide• Newport OR inundation
– Rivers• New Madrid fault/Mississippi
– Coastal population increase
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat• Special threats
– Increased sea levels and geologic activity
Parts of the USA exposed to the threat• Threat summary
– Magnification factors• Increased geologic activity• Rising sea levels• Increasing coastal populations
Area General threat level
Earthquake / tectonicsthreat
Volcanic eruption threat
LandSlide threat
Meteorite (bolide impact) threat
Pressurized gas deposits threat
Hawaii High High High Medium Very low Very low
Alaska High High Medium Medium Very low Very low
West Coast High High Medium Medium Very low Medium
East Coast Low Low Medium Medium Very low Medium
PR & VI Low Low Medium Medium Very low Low
Precautions to mitigate the risk
• General preparedness
Area General threat level
Tsunamiready certifiedcounties
Year of last online plan update
Hawaii High 4 (all) 2007
Alaska High 0 2004
Washington High 3 2007
Oregon High 3 2006
California High 1 1998
East Coast Low 5 1990s-2000s
PR & VI Low 0 2000
Precautions to mitigate the risk
• Programs– 12/2005 National Science and Technology Council
• TSUNAMI RISK REDUCTION FOR THE UNITED STATES: A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION recommended continuing:
– 1995 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) with subcommittees on:
• Mapping and modeling (assessment)• Warning guidance• Mitigation
Precautions to mitigate the risk
• Programs– National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
• http://nthmp.tsunami.gov/about_program.html• Steering Committee
– National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Chair) – Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management
Agency (DHS/FEMA) – U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) – National Science Foundation (NSF) – U.S. coastal states – Pacific territories/commonwealths – Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands
Precautions to mitigate the risk
• National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program – Public tsunami warning comments– TsunamiReady certification program– Community planning and outreach– New tsunami building and structural regulations– NOAA to expand existing information dissemination
systems with:• Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN)• RAdio and InterNET (RANET) Meteorological/Climate Info
Precautions to mitigate the risk• What businesses can do
– Avoid building/residing in tsunami prone areas– Consult local EM on evacuation plans– Follow the TsunamiReady certification program– Investigate new tsunami building and structural
regulations for your facilities– Build internal education and awareness
• http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/prepare.html• http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_592_,00.ht
ml• http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/tsunamis.shtm• http://www.fema.gov/business/nfip/ (flood ins)
Precautions to mitigate the risk• What businesses can do
– Investigate inundation information to help determine risk
• Oregon– http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5283/
• Hawaii– http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5208/
• Washington– http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5004/
• California (no USGS inundation maps)– http://www.quake06.org/quake06/best_
practices/fact_sheets/TsunamiR4.pdf– http://www.seismic.ca.gov/pdf.files/McC
arthy%20Anderson%20Tsunami%20paper.pdf
– http://cwis.usc.edu/dept/tsunamis/2005/index.php
Questions
Bill Lang, CBCPBusiness Continuity Program ManagerVIRTUAL CARE PROVIDER INC. (VCPI)111 West Michigan St. Third FloorMilwaukee, WI 53203V:[email protected]
