(eBook) Betfair Triple System

8/13/2019 (eBook) Betfair Triple System

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No part of this guide may be reproduced or resold without express permission of the author.

Copyright K J Platt 2005

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Introduction

Betfair is the leading betting exchange and offers significant advantages overtraditional bookmakers:

1. You can bet that an outcome will happen (back) at consistently better prices thanwith a traditional bookmaker.

2. You can bet that an event wont happen (lay).

3. You can choose the odds you want to play at.

4. You can bet during an event when it is in-play.

All bets on Betfair have been placed there by users who either want to have a bet inthe normal way (back), or offer odds to other punters (lay). Bets are matchedbetween people with opposing views.

In this guide I share with you the three ways that I consistently make profits usingBetfair.

Open a new Betfair Account- 20 free

Naturally you will need to open an account with Betfair if you are not already a user.

Even if you are already a user, it will be helpful to open a separate account to enableyou to easily measure the success of using this system. By entering a refer andearn code on the sign-up page you will receive 20 freein your account once youhave earned 50 Betfair points (after you have won or lost a total of 100).

Open an account with any amount you wish. In each section of this guide I suggest abank you could work with although you can make decent profits starting with just100. My bank is usually around the 2000 mark and that enables me to make themost of every opportunity.

Use the link below to open the Betfair website and type the code below very carefullyin the refer and earn box on the sign-up form to ensure you receive your free 20.

Click here to visit the Betfair website

The Refer and Earn code to input: 4MFTMYFNG

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Getting to Know Betfair

If you are a new Betfair user, the interface can look quite daunting at first glance.However it really is quite simple to use. An excellent tutorial is provided on theBetfair website and shows you exactly how to place back and lay bets.

I strongly suggest that as a new user you become familiar with the basic functionsbefore attempting to place any real money bets. Within the betfair.com site, click onHelp and then View Our Demo.

Odds Format

All prices on the Betfair website are shown in European decimal format.

Decimal odds express your total return for the stake you place. Therefore evenmoney is expressed as 2.0 - you get back your initial stake plus the same again aswinnings - twice your initial stake.

To help you get used to the decimal odds format, a handy guide is printed on thefollowing page. The decimal system is very simple once you get used to it.

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Odds Conversion Table

Fractional Decimal American

10/1 11.00 $1,000.00

9/1 10.00 $900.00

17/2 9.50 $850.00

8/1 9.00 $800.00

15/2 8.50 $750.00

7/1 8.00 $700.00

13/2 7.50 $650.00

6/1 7.00 $600.00

11/2 6.50 $550.00

5/1 6.00 $500.009/2 5.50 $450.00

4/1 5.00 $400.00

18/5 4.60 $360.00

7/2 4.50 $350.00

100/30 4.333 $333.33

16/5 4.20 $320.00

3/1 4.00 $300.00

14/5 3.80 $280.00

11/4 3.75 $275.00

13/5 3.60 $260.00

5/2 3.50 $250.00

12/5 3.40 $240.00

95/40 3.375 $237.50

23/10 3.30 $230.00

9/4 3.25 $225.00

11/5 3.20 $220.00

85/40 3.125 $212.5021/10 3.10 $210.00

2/1 3.00 $200.00

19/10 2.90 $190.00

15/8 2.875 $187.50

9/5 2.80 $180.00

7/4 2.75 $175.00

17/10 2.70 $170.00

13/8 2.625 $162.50

8/5 2.60 $160.00

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6/4 2.50 $150.00

7/5 2.40 $140.00

11/8 2.375 $137.50

13/10 2.30 $130.00

5/4 2.25 $125.00

6/5 2.20 $120.00

11/10 2.10 $110.00

21/20 2.05 $105.00

1/1 2.00 -$100.00

20/21 1.952 -$105.00

10/11 1.909 -$110.00

9/10 1.90 -$111.10

5/6 1.833 -$120.004/5 1.80 -$125.00

8/11 1.727 -$137.50

7/10 1.70 -$142.90

4/6 1.667 -$150.00

5/8 1.625 -$160.00

8/13 1.615 -$162.50

3/5 1.60 -$166.70

4/7 1.571 -$175.00

8/15 1.533 -$187.50

1/2 1.50 -$200.00

40/85 1.471 -$212.50

9/20 1.45 -$222.20

4/9 1.444 -$22500

2/5 1.40 -$250.00

4/11 1.364 -$275.00

7/20 1.35 -$285.70

1/3 1.333 -$300.0030/100 1.30 -$333.30

2/7 1.286 -$350.00

1/4 1.25 -$400.00

2/9 1.222 -$450.00

1/5 1.20 -$500.00

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Safety First !

Before implementing any of the techniques in this guide I would urge you to adherethe following guidance.

1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose.

2. Never be greedy. Be happy to take small gains it all adds up.

3. Bet very small stakes to start with until you are comfortable with each technique. Itis better to learn a lot from a cheap mistake than learn little from a huge mistake.

It is not necessary to use all the three methods described in this guide as eachsystem works independently. I do suggest, however, that you keep track of yourmoney, either by maintaining a record of your profits from each method or by openingseparate Betfair accounts.

The three methods in this guide are:

Lay the LosersIdentifying races where the favourite is extremelylikely to lose and then laying these horses before therace starts.

TradingBacking and laying a horse in the minutes before arace starts to lock in a profit regardless of the raceoutcome.

In-Play BettingBacking a horse to win for a small profit just before itcrosses the winning line or laying a horse during arace when is has no chance of winning.

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Lay the Losers

The key to this system is to identify races where the favourite is extremely likely tolose and then lay these horses before the race starts. We are looking for losers!

When you lay a horse, you are effectively acting as a bookmaker and taking a betfrom a punter. Say the price of the horse is 3.1 and you lay the horse for 5, you aretaking a bet of 5 from a backer. When you lay a horse then effectively all the otherhorses in the race are running for you.

If the horse loses you keep the 5. Should the horse win your liability would be 5 x3.1 = 15.50 less the stake money of 5 = 10.50. You stood to win 5 if the horselost or lose 10.50 if the horse won.

A long-term study reveals that only around 20% of favourites win races on average.Very rarely will more than 40% of favourites win on any given day. This is a goodbasis to start from because we will naturally get more losers than winners, althoughit depends on the prices of the winners whether we make a profit or not.

To make a reliable profit we must identify which favourites have a much higherprobability of losing. Note that we are only interested in favourites (the shortestpriced horse on the race card). It would be easy to pick horses priced at 50 or abovebecause they do have a high probability of losing the trouble is that they are alsovery expensive to pay out on when they do win!

Step 1: Examine the Race Cards

This can be done online via the Racing Post well in advance of a days racing. Theirwebsite is:

www.racingpost.co.uk

If you have not used the site before you will need to register, which is free, to obtain

a user name and password. This will allow you to gain access to the data you need.

On the Racing Menu down the left side of the screen click on Cards and then clickon the day in question. You will be presented with a list of races for the main racemeeting for the day selected. You can also access the lists for the other racemeetings by clicking on a different venue. These are listed down the right hand sideof the screen you will need to scroll down to see them and are listed under theheading Other Meetings.

To view a race card simply click on the name of the race adjacent to the race time:

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Above is the race card for the 1:30 at Huntingdon.

Use the race card to check the number of horses running. If there are 10 or morerunners then look for the name of the favourite. The favourite is the horse that hasthe lowest price and is mentioned first in the betting forecast. In the above exampleyou can see that the favourite is Irish Wolf. If the race qualifies then proceed to step2, otherwise look at another race.

A race wil l only qualify for th is system i f there are 10 or more runners.

Step 2: Check the Racing Post Ratings

The right-hand column on the Race Card is headed RPR which is short for RacingPost Rating. This is an indication of a horses ability.

We are only interested in the race if at least 3 other horses are no lower than 10points below the favourite. In addition we can remain interested in thefavourite if it is unrated.

You can see in the above example that the favourite, Irish Wolf, has a rating of 130,and 9 other runners have ratings no lower than 10 points below Irish Wolf. If the race

qualifies then proceed to step 3, otherwise look at another race.

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Step 3: Check the Tipsters

By clicking on the Selections graphic underneath the Race Card you can bring up alist of tipsters and their selections for the race as shown below

We are looking for a clear sign that the favourite is unfancied by the majority oftipsters. Check how many tipsters have selected the favourite. Also check howmany tipsters have NOT selected the favourite and instead have chosen a differentrunner.

If the number of selections NOT involving the favourite outnumbers the selections forthe favourite then make a note of the race time, location, the name of the horse andforecast price for use in the minutes before the race.

You can see above that 6 tipsters have selected Irish Wolf whereas 9 tipsters haveselected other runners.

Step 4: Check the Price Movements

This step can only be carried out five minutes before the race starts. Log into yourBetfair account and navigate to the race in question. You will be presented with thestandard screen showing the current prices for each horse.

We are essentially looking to follow the money at this point. Huge sums are bet inthe few minutes before a race and this is often a good indicator of how a horse islikely to perform for a variety of reasons.

By clicking on the favourites name in Betfair you can view a graph representing the

price history of the horse for that particular race. We are not really concerned withthe left hand half of the graph, as volatile trading takes place on Betfair when a race

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is first listed until the market finds a level.

The right half of the graph will show us what has happened in the minutes leading upto the race. If a horse has been heavily backed the price on the horse will havereduced and the graph will be trending downwards. If this has happened thenobviously the horse must be looking good to win and we should therefore leave italone.

If the right half of the graph is trending upwards then obviously the horse is now evenmore un-fancied and you should proceed to step 5. You can see in the examplebelow that the price has Irish Wolf has risen in the minutes before the race, fromaround 4.3 to 5.5. The right hand side of the graph is trending upwards and we candefinitely proceed.

The final scenario is if the graph is trading sideways and is neither trending up ordown. The price will be remaining fairly constant. This means the jury is out on thishorse and we should proceed with caution. If the back price is higher than the priceon the Racing Post Race Card then proceed to step 5 and halve your stake,otherwise leave the horse alone.

Step 5: Laying the Horse

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Only place the lay bet if the price on the horse is less than or equal to 6. We are notin the business of paying out huge sums on the odd selection that does win!

If all the above criteria are met then you can place the lay bet. Please refer to thestaking guidance below in order to manage your funds well.

Staking

The above criteria details how to select the horses to lay. The other vital part of thesystem is managing your money so that you do not put yourself at undue risk.

Set aside a betting bank for use with this system. I suggest opening a separateBetfair account for this purpose see page 2. I suggest betting only 1% of your bank

on each selection. This means that if your bank is 500 then you will only take a laybet of 5 per selection.

If the horse was trading sideways as described in step 4 then only bet 0.5% of yourbank.

In this way your bank will increase by 1% on most races, and as we have set a pricelimit of 6 your maximum liability will be 5% of your bank on the occasional race wherethe horse unexpectedly wins. Naturally your stakes adjust as your bank increasesand therefore you benefit from exponential growth.

I suggest trying the system on paper for at least 2 weeks before placing any realmoney bets to demonstrate just how many winning bets this system will select foryou.

It has been my experience that I can usually select 3 or 4 races per day that qualifyfor the system. After 2 weeks you will be able to see how much money the systemwould make you and you will be ready to play for real.

I am pleased to report that Irish Wolf did lose the race used in our example asshown on the next page...

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Summary of the Lay the Losers System

Check the race has at least 10 runners and identify the favourite on the racecard.

Check the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) to ensure at least 3 other horses are nolower than 10 points below the favouri te.

Check the Selections to ensure the total number of tips for other runners isgreater than the number of t ips for the favourite.

Finally, check the graph on Betfair 5 minutes before the race starts. If the priceis drif ting lay the horse for 1% of your bank. If the horse is trading sideways

then lay the horse for 0.5% of your bank if the price is greater than forecast onthe Race Card.

The maximum price to lay at is 6.

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Trading

The aim of trading on horse racing is simply to engineer a guaranteed profit before a

race starts, regardless of the outcome of the race. This is usually achieved in 2stages:

1) Backing and laying the race favourite (where your average back price is higherthan your average lay price). This creates a free bet situation where you gain if thefavourite wins the race and lose nothing if the favourite does not win.

2) Laying the favourite to spread the gain across all runners. This is sometimesreferred to a greening up and means you will make a profit regardless of the raceoutcome.

It doesnt matter which order the backing and laying in stage one takes place. Aslong as you are able to back the horse at a higher price than you lay the horse thenyou make a profit.

If the price on a horse is reducing, then you will back first, then lay at a lower pricelater.

If the price on a horse is increasing, then you will lay first, then back at a higher pricelater.

The key to successful trading is being able to predict the next likely price movementon a horse to enable you to decide whether to back or lay first.

This guide aims to show you how to maximise your profits from trading whilstshowing you the exit strategies when prices move in the wrong direction.

I only recommend trading on the Betfair website, where there is usually the mostliquidity (money being traded) and therefore the best opportunities for trading. I alsoonly recommend trading on UK horse races, again for liquidity reasons.

When to trade

The time to start trading is the 10 minutes before a race starts when most money ischanging hands. The time you will stop trading is the few seconds before the racestarts. Please ensure your computer clock or wristwatch is set accurately. UK racesnever start early but you need to ensure you close your trading position in the fewseconds before the advertised race time. In this way your stake will never be at

risk.

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How much to trade

I suggest using your full bank to trade with an upper bank limit set around 2000.Any higher than this and you can have trouble getting bets matched.

You will need to back and lay the horse for the same amount until you are ready togreen up and take your profit. To calculate the amount to back and lay the horse fordivide your bank balance (or 2000 if your bank is higher) by the prevailing lay pricefor the horse minus 1. The round down slightly just in case the price increases.

Taking a balance of 2000 and a lay price of 4, you would divide 3 (the price minus1) into 2000 giving a stake of 666. I suggest rounding down to take into account ahorse where the price subsequently increases. I would suggest 600 stake in thiscase. As long as the horse price stays below 4.4 then you will be OK. If the price

increases to this level you will need to recalculate and reduce your stakes.

The reason for this is that Betfair only allow you to commit up to your balance. If youlay a horse for 600 at a price of 4 then your liability if the horse wins is 1800 andyou therefore need to have this amount in your account.

You may think that a stake of 600 is a lot to put on a horse. This is true but you arenot betting on the horse. For every lay of 600 you will also close your position bybacking the same horse for 600 so that you are never exposed (open) to the riskof losing 600 or 1800 (if you lay first).

When you first trade I suggest using minimum stakes of 2. Your profits will beminimal but this is the ideal way to learn and you can increase you stakes as yourconfidence increases.

Starting to Trade

Open up the Betfair website and bring up the list of the days races. To do this loginto Betfair and using the menu on the left click on Horse Racing Todays Card.

Then click on the next UK based race to display the runners.

We are only interested in trading on the race favourites (the horses with the lowestprices) because only these horses will have sufficient volumes of money beingtraded. Also we only trade on horses where the price is below 6. This is becausethe price increments on Betfair are too high above this level and the price will not beas volatile. The lower the price on the horse the more favourable the priceincrements are.

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Price Increments1.01 2.00 0.012.00 3.00 0.023.00 4.00 0.054.00 6.00 0.10

6.00 10.00 0.20

The Graph

A good starting point for trading on a race is to see how the price has been changingin the last few minutes. If you click on the favourites name you can view the graphthat shows the recent price changes. This may give clues as to whether a horsesprice is trending in any direction.

If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving upwards, this

is a good indicator that you may be wanting to lay the horse first, then back shortlyafter at a higher price.

If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving downwards,this is a good indicator that you may be wanting to back the horse first, then layshortly after at a lower price.

Regardless of the trends shown, we are not going to use the graph as the onlyindicator of the likely next price movement. The graph only represents a historicalprice record. Although trends may continue this is not guaranteed. You can now

close the graph and start concentrating on the main trading window.

At this point you will need to keep refreshing the Betfair window so you can keep upto date with the changing data. The final section of the trading part of this guideprovides you with the tools of the trade that can perform this function automaticallyfor you.

Weight of Money

The other major indicator of the next movement in price is referred to as weight ofmoney. If you look at the row of data containing the name of the favourite horse, youwill see 3 back prices and 3 lay prices together with the amounts available.

At this point in reading this guide you should stop and think about these numbers andwhat they mean. The back prices represent people who want to lay the horse atthat price. The lay prices represent people who want to back the horse at thatprice.

The weight of money, more often than not, pushes the price in one direction oranother.

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If there is more money on the back side, then more people wish to lay the horsethan back it this usually leads to the horse drifting (the price increases).

If there is more money on the lay side, then more people wish to back the horsethan lay it this usually leads to the horse shortening (the price reduces).

The weight of money takes into account the total of all 3 amounts of moneyavailable on the back side compared to the total of all 3 amounts of money availableon the lay side.

If the back side and lay side are fairly equal then obviously the price is not likely tobe moving.

Making a decision to trade

Trading is all about discipline. Being disciplined means identifying the correct time totrade AND also being able to resist trading when conditions are not right.

What we are ideally looking for is:

1) The graph showing a trend, up or down. Here we see Consonant on the drift:

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2) A weight of money situation with a multiplication factor of 2.5 or above i.e. we arereally looking for one side to be at least two and a half times the other side before wecan be fairly certain of movement. The higher the multiplication factor of one sideversus the other then the more likely a price movement is. We also ideally like theweight of money to match the graph trend i.e. a down trending graph to be matchedby high weight of money on the lay side and vice-versa.

Here we see 1996 on the back side and 758 on the lay side. This means morepeople wish to lay the horse called Consonant and this confirms the price is likely toincrease further. The weight of money factor is 2.63 (1996/758). As the factor is justover 2.5 we can expect a small price increase.

3) High liquidity in the market i.e. the total amount of money available to trade on theback and lay sides being in the high hundreds or into the thousands.

When conditions are right you need to act quickly to make your trades.

Making the trades

In this case I was laying Consonant first because the indications were that the pricewas increasing. Naturally, if the price appeared to be reducing then I would back firstand then lay at a lower price. I managed to trade 3 times on the horse beforegreening up to spread the profit amongst all the runners.

As the weight of money factor remained low I was only looking for quick trades withsmall movements in price. Had the factor been higher than 5 then I would have tried

to ride the wave (explained later).

To lay the horse, quickly click on the best available lay price and then input yourstake, which was 50 in this example. In my first trade on this horse I was matchedat a price of 4.4.

The next step is to immediately request the back price you want. In this case Iclicked on the best available blue back price (4.3) and then adjusted the requestedprice to 4.5 and submitted the request. I joined the queue of other punters alsowishing to back the horse at this price (my 50 was added to the lay side of the

Betfair screen). The bet was matched within a couple of seconds as the price movedin the expected direction.

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I continued to watch the screen and managed to lay at 4.7 and back at 4.8, then layat 5.6/5.7 and back at 5.7 for a little extra profit.

Shortly before the advertised race time I decided to take the profit accrued. To dothis you divide the profit on the horse by the available lay price and then lay for thisamount.

In this case the profit was 15.01. The available lay price was 5.5. I therefore layedthe horse for 2.73. This created a situation where I would gain 3.01 if Consonant

won, or 2.73 if any other horse won. Remember when trading, the actual back/layor lay/back process only takes a few seconds.

When you first start trading with small premiums you will not be able to green updue to the minimum stake being 2 on Betfair. The example below shows how onetrade on Oh Danny Boy has created a 5 profit situation IFthe horse wins. It isimpossible to spread the profit and green up because the required stake would be5/5.4 = 0.92, well below the minimum.

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This is therefore a free bet situation, where you will win 5 if the horse wins but losenothing if the horse does not win.

Riding the Wave

In the above examples the weight of money factor was fairly small and therefore Iwas concentrating on making small gains from relatively minor price changes.

Sometimes sentiment amongst punters moves firmly for or against a horse shortlybefore a race and this leads fairly large price movements in a short space of time.These situations are opportunities for smart traders to make a lot of money.

You will recognise when this happens because the weight of money will be

overwhelming in one direction or another perhaps with a factor of 10 or more.

When such an opportunity presents itself get on board as soon as possible byplacing your opening back or lay (depending on the direction of movement). Insteadof immediately requesting the opposing bet simply wait and see what happens. Youcan then ride the wave until you see the weight of money coming back into balance.

The price may change considerably before balance is restored and you then placeyour opposing back or lay bet, locking in a large profit. Unfortunately I have noscreenshots for you of such a situation (because I make the most of these occasions

and dont waste time taking screenshots). An example of a horse where the price willdrift considerably would look something like:

Back Lay2.62

23542.64

18752.66

20052.68240

2.7048

2.7254

In this situation you would quickly lay the horse and then wait for as long as possiblebefore eventually backing at a much higher price when the weight of money comesback into balance.

Software to Make Trading Easier

To trade successfully you will need to be able to see the prices and volumesavailable changing every second. You should also be able to place back and laybets quickly.

There are two solutions for this:

1) Trading using the Betfair website. You can use the Betfair Refresh scriptdescribed on page 32 of this guide. This will refresh the screen at the interval youset making trading a lot easier. You will still be stuck with a multi-click bet process

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however and this will mean you are sometimes too slow and miss a price change youanticipated.

Although you can trade successfully using the Betfair website interface you can tradequicker and more successfully using my preferred solution:

2) Single click betting software. Please visit the website:

http://www.gruss.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/

There you can download a free single click Betting Assistant program written by aBetfair user. The website also contains a support forum. The advantages of usingthis software are:

a) Single click betting on all 3 back and lay prices.b) Continually updated display of prices and volumes.c) Continually updated display of potential profit.d) Option to take profit (green up) with one click.e) Instant colour coded snapshot of the overall weight of money.

If you take the time to learn how to use the above software you will be rewarded witha much easier way of trading.

I wont describe how to use the software within this guide because the forum andhelp screens available do this job anyway. I will simply say that once you get usedto the software I guarantee you will never trade via the Betfair interface again.

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In-Play Betting

Many events taking place are turned In-play by Betfair, allowing you place back or

lay orders while the event in actually taking place. Naturally the prices can changesignificantly during an event according to what is happening on the field of play.

The techniques described in this guide can be used for many differing sportingevents e.g. football, rugby, snooker, tennis etc. I am going to use horse racing in allmy examples, simply because a great deal of money changes hands in-play onBetfair on UK horse races. Regularly over 100000 worth of bets are matched on asingle race and this figure can easily be over 1 million. Please steer of non-UKhorse racing, as often the liquidity during a race is very low leading to pricing thatdoes not reflect a horses true chance of winning.

You can easily check whether an event will be turned in play by navigating to theevent within the Betfair website and then clicking on Rules. The paragraphdisplayed will indicate if the event will be turned IN PLAY.

When an event starts all unmatched bets are cancelled and betting is brieflysuspended. Then the event turns In-play and betting can commence again. An In-play event is indicated by a white tick on a green square with the Betfair interface.

I advise watching what happens during a horse race to get familiar with the priceschanging and what is displayed. You will need to keep clicking Refresh with theBetfair page to update the prices as the action unfolds. You can click Refresh everysecond or so. Betting can take place right up to the finishing post when Betfairsuspend trading on the race.

On next page I will describe what you should notice during a horse race

What Happens on the Betfair Screen During the Race

1. The race starts betting is Suspended with all unmatched bets cancelled.

2. Betting resumes with new back and lay orders filling the screen.

3. Orders are matched or cancelled as the race unfolds.

4. Prices change rapidly prices shorten (smaller odds) on race leaders andprices increase (greater odds) on slower runners.

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5. As horses drift out of the action, or a pulled up or fall, back orders arecancelled and it is no longer possible to lay the horse. Some layers still offerodds of 1000 (999/1) in the hope of attracting a mug punter.

6. Odds on the leaders shorten considerably until the final furlongs.

7. If a race has a clear winner approaching the winning post, then the odds on alllosers drift towards 1000. Odds on the winner reduce.

8. As the winner crosses the line the odds will be 1.01 i.e. a 1 profit to 100stake.

9. Betting is again Suspended.

By clicking on each horses name after the race you can view details of the last pricematched and a graph of how the price altered on that horse. The prices tell you

which horse won the race (last price matched usually 1.01 or close to 1.01) and alsoshow the prices rising on the losers to as high as 1000.

Making Your Profi t

The system is simple. As the race unfolds you can make money in 2 ways:

LAY horses that are defin itely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen,been pulled up, unseated its r ider or is too far back down the field.

BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught, has nomore fences to jump, and is running into the last fur long.

Now we will look in detail at the processes you need to follow and the factors youneed to be aware of...

Using Live Broadcasts

It is possible to follow the progress of a race simply by referring to the changingprices within the Betfair site, and I describe later how to bet using only theinformation available on Betfair.

However you will make much higher profits if you are able to gain an extra edgeover other punters. For most people, this will mean viewing the event on television orlistening to a radio or internet broadcast.

Being able to see, or hear, the action will give you confidence to bet earlier in a race

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than people looking at prices changing on a screen. This will mean you can eitherget a back or lay order matched where otherwise no bet will be offered, or mean youcan bet at a much higher price.

The problem with all broadcasts is that they are notlive. Even if the broadcaster istransmitting live pictures, the satellite transmission of the images and sound meanssome sort of delay is involved.

Even after allowing for this, some broadcasters advertise live radio/internetcommentary which is actually deliberately delayed. For example, if you use anybookmakers live broadcast you will find they are behind the action by up to 40seconds!

The golden rule is to check the delay in any broadcast before betting. By watching orlistening to one race, and monitoring Betfair, you can easily check this. Betfair allowyou to bet right up to the end of the race, therefore if you keep refreshing the screenin the closing stages of the race, you can measure the delay between the betting

being suspended (the end of the race on Betfair which is the true end of the race)and the end of the race on the broadcast you are tuned into.

Better sources of broadcasts include terrestrial television and Sky Channel 415 (AtThe Races). You may eventually decide, like me, that it is simpler to use just thechanging prices on Betfair instead of relying on a broadcast.

Betting Using Real-Time Information

The idea scenario is to be actually present at the event, working on a laptopcomputer. In this way you have no delay as you are witnessing events first hand andcan place bets slightly earlier than people watching on television at home.

Another great scenario is to be speaking on the telephone to someone at theracecourse on a mobile telephone who can work with you.

By now you should understand that we are trying to either:

LAY horses that are defin itely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen,been pulled up, unseated its r ider or is too far back down the field.

BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught , has nomore fences to jump, and is running into the last fur long.

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You should also understand that quicker you can get information on the state of therace the better your bets will be. The choices available to you are:

1stChoice: Being present at the racecourse on a laptop computer.2ndChoice: Speaking to a friend who is at the racecourse.3rdChoice: Watching a live broadcast or making betting decisions usingonly pr ice data on Betfair.

You will make good profits using all of the above methods but the very best pricescan be obtained if you getting your information faster and acting on it faster thanother punters.

You should also be mindful of the warnings below:

Do not bet unless you are certain of the outcome.

If a race is too close to call towards the finish leave it alone.

You do not have to bet on every race.

Take the easy profits and leave the gambling for the mugs

Now for the actual bet process:

Backing Horses In Play

The screenshot below is from Betfair on the 2:20 race at Worcester. The racefinished a fraction of a second later with Allumee the winner.

In the final second of a race this is the usual pattern you can expect to see. It is nolonger possible to bet on the winner no back prices are available. All the prices onthe other horses have drifted considerably, some as high as 1000. These prices areoffered by lay betters looking for some easy money!

You can see on the right panel that a few seconds earlier I placed a back order on

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Allumee for 50 at a price of 1.1. Betfair performs best execution on all the betsyou place i.e. they give you the best price available (which means the highest whenyou are backing or the lowest when you are laying). The price will never be worsethan the price you order, however your bet would be unmatched if no one isprepared to accept your order.

Fortunately for me, people were still prepared to lay at 1.2 when I placed my backorder and I was matched at this price. The race finished a few seconds later andyou can see that I made 10 profit on my 50 stake (20% profit for 3 minutes work!)I managed to achieve this without following the race on TV I was just watching theprices changing on Betfair!

I placed my bet when the horse was clear in the lead, only a few seconds to run, andno other horse advancing fast enough to catch it. Barring the horse tripping over ablade of grass, I could not lose.

If you click on a horses name after a race has finished, you can view a lot moreinformation about trading during the race. This is the screenshot for the winninghorse

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The red line on the graph shows how the price on the horse reduced during the race.You can see how in the closing stages of the race the price fell steadily up to thewinning post.

Above the graph you can see that over 1 million changed hands on this race, andthat the final price matched was 1.01 (1 profit on 100 stake). The panel on theright shows how much money was traded at each price. 17714 was traded at 1.01demonstrating just how much money is available as a horse crosses the winning line.

On the following page I will briefly show you the same screen for a losing horse justso you get used to the price patterns.

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Here is the same data for a losing horse in the same race. Because of the scale ofthe graph, it is difficult to see how the price increased during the race, until the pricefinally spiked up to 1000 near the end of the race.

OK, so now I will explain when to back a horse in-running to achieve the profitsillustrated above

As we established earlier, the time to back a horse is when you are certain it is goingto win. If you are watching the race then you can decide for yourself when you arehappy to call the winner.

I suggest betting small stakes to start with (the minimum on Betfair is 2) until you

get used to using the Betfair site and also become confident in your own ability to callthe winner and be right all the time.

If you find you are calling the winner incorrectly, then you are either deciding toosoon or watching a very close race. You should also be wary of deceptive viewingangles or TV close-ups that do not present you with a full view of what is happeningaround the lead horse.

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If a race is very close then it is best NOT to bet because you cannot be certain ofselecting the winner. For this reason you will find that the best races to follow areover greater distances, usually over 2 miles, where the winning horse often leads byseveral lengths at the finish. Shorter races over 6 furlongs to 1 mile usually result ina very tense finish and you will usually find it impossible to pick the winner until it istoo late to bet.

The actual betting process to follow is:

1. Before the start of the race, log into Betfair, and navigate to the race in question.Once the prices are displayed for the runners, you can close the navigation panel byclicking the left arrow under the Betfair logo. This increases the viewing area for theelements you will use during the race.

2. When the race starts, keep clicking Refresh, so you can see the prices changing.

3. In the closing stages of the race choose the horse you feel has the greatestchance of winning. If you are using only prices on Betfair to select your horse thenthe lead horse will be the one with the lowest price.

4. Click on the price indicated in the blue Back column next to your selected horse.The right hand part of the screen will now look like this. You can see that the priceclicked on was 1.9.

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5. The price is reducing all the time as the horse draws clear of the field. If you triedto submit a bet at 1.9 then it would not be matched and you would not have a bet.

The trick is the change the price to either the lowest you will accept or the lowestavailable on Betfair (always 1.01). I used to input 1.1 but now I use 1.01 as I amhappy with any sort of profit if I am certain of the result. Also input the amount youwish to bet. I am using a stake of 50. The screen will look like this:

6. Click on Submit. At this stage you have not decided that this horse is definitelygoing to win, instead it just looked like the most likely. You can still change yourmind. By clicking Submit at this stage you are then only 1 click away from actuallyplacing a bet. After you have clicked Submit a confirmation question appears wherethe Submit button was.

The tick box on the left shows that Betfair will display this confirmation screen for allfuture bets. You can (if you wish) untick this box BEWARE this will remove theconfirmation question in future and will then place bets as soon as you pressSubmit.

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7. You now need to wait until you are certain the horse is going to win. If you arewatching the race and have definitely decided the selection will win press Yes tobet.

Similarly, if you are using only Betfair keep refreshing using the button in Betfair andwatch the prices change. Only bet when or if:

a) the price on the horse selected drops below 1.3 and;

b) the prices on ALL other runners are greater than 15 and;

c) you observe that the price on the selection is still reducing and;

d) you observe that the prices on the other runners are still increasing.

If the above criteria is met then press Yes to submit your bet request.

8. One second after pressing Yes Betfair will try to match your bet. The price on thelead horse is reducing towards 1.01 and this is the price we input. However, Betfairuse best execution which means they match you at the best price available at thetime. Therefore, the earlier you have placed your bet, the better price you will bematched at.

The right hand panel will confirm the price you have been matched at. Clicking theMy Bets tab presents a summary of all the backs and lays you had matched orunmatched during the race.

The race ends soon after and you are hopefully anything from 1% to 30% richer!Move onto the next race.

9. If the race leader fades and you become interested in a different horse during therace simply click No to the bet you have prepared, then click Clear All at the top ofthe right panel. Then you can go back to step 4 for the horse you are now interestedin.

You can see that the process involves preparing a bet on your favoured horse andgetting to within one click of asking Betfair to get you matched ready for when you

make the split-second decision to bet.

Notes for users selecting horses using ONLY Betfair:

If you are using only changing prices on Betfair to select your horse ensure yourefresh the screen regularly, every second or so, to keep updating all the prices.

Also ensure you can see ALL the horses on the Betfair screen. If there are a lot ofrunners in a race then you may find you have to scroll down to view all the runners.Increasing the resolution of your monitor may help bring all the runners into viewwithout having to scroll. The danger is that you place a bet, unaware that anotherhorse is doing very well, simply because you could not see its price.

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Laying Horses In Play

The previous section explained how to make easy profits betting on the winner of arace. It is also possible to make further profits earlier in a race by laying (bettingagainst) horses you decide are not going to win.

Horses may fall, be pulled up, unseat their rider or drop too far back down the field towin. If you can take decisive action, then you can take some easy money off punterswho are betting blind or do not react quick enough to cancel their unmatched bets.

I suggest it is not possible to make a risk free lay bet by using only the priceschanging on the Betfair screen. Prices can drift to very high levels during a racebefore a horse starts to move up the field. It is only wise to place lay bets when youare viewing the race yourself either at the course or on television.

The process to follow is exactly the same as when backing order in play except youwill be clicking on the pink Lay side of the screen to select your horse.

The other difference is that in order to get a bet matched you will need to amend theprice clicked on to a higher figure in order to get your order matched. This isbecause the price for the horse selected is likely to be increasing.

For a lay order, Betfair will again use best execution and give you the best price

available up to the price input. Therefore if you have requested to lay the horse at aprice of say 50 then you could in theory be matched at any price from 1.01 to 50. Ifthe price drifts beyond 50 before your bet is matched then it is likely you wouldremain unmatched.

When playing a lay bet you must have sufficient funds in your Betfair account tocover the potential liability. Remember that you are effectively acting as thebookmaker and taking a bet off another punter. Therefore if you take a 5 bet at aprice of 40, your liability if 40 x 5 minus the 5 stake = 195. To take the 5 off apunter you must have 195 in your account.

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The key to the successful placing of a lay bet in-running is being certain that thehorse will not win. Then you can take easy money off other punters.

Stakes

I suggest working with a betting bank. This will provide you with some sort ofdiscipline. Whatever size bank you decide upon, I always recommend betting verysmall stakes to start with while you build confidence in this system and also in yourown ability to follow the system successfully.

How much of your bank you are prepared to stake on each race is entirely up to you.Personally I suggest no more than 10% of your total bank should be risked on each

race. The reason for this is simple. If you were to make a silly mistake such aspressing the wrong button, your computer mouse malfunctions etc, then you do notwant your entire bank to be wiped out. If you ever did lose 10% of your bank, itwould not take very long at all to recoup.

Software to make the in-play system easier

When you try this system you will soon realise that there are two repetitive tasks:

1. Continually refreshing the Betfair screen during a race to update prices.

2. Placing back or lay bets involves several clicks to select the horse, input youmaximum or minimum acceptable price, inputting your stake and submitting the bet.

Thankfully help is at hand owing to the efforts of a fellow Betfair user who has offeredsome automation scripts free of charge as referred to in the Trading section of thisguide.

You can download the automation scripts from my webpage at:

http://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownload

This download contains five scripts. The two which are relevant are Betfair Refreshand Enable instant betting (fixed odds). Save the download to your computer thendouble click on it. Select the script you wish to install first Betfair Refresh on thedrop down menu then click Install. Repeat for the second script Enable instantbetting (fixed odds).

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http://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownloadhttp://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownloadhttp://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownloadhttp://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownloadhttp://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownload


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To use the scripts open up Betfair and log in. Navigate to the event you wish to beton. Then right click somewhere on the screen and you will see the 2 scripts havebeen added to the menu that appears:

Click Betfair Refresh on the menu and you will be asked how often you wish theprices to be refreshed (1000 = 1 second). I suggest entering 1000 so the prices areupdated every second. The My Bets panel is also automatically refreshed. To cancelthe script simply refresh your entire browser window.

The other script is started in a similar way by right-clicking and selecting Enableinstant betting (fixed odds). You will be asked for the stake you wish to back, thestake you wish to accept on a lay, the minimum odds you are prepared to take on aback and the maximum odds you are prepared to take a lay at. Once the script is

running a confirmation screen will appear and the words Total Selections above thelist of horses will turn red(normally black).

At that point, if you click on the current back or lay price for a horse than an instantback or lay bet will be placed. The Betfair Yes/No confirmation question will stillappear though unless you have disabled this.

If you navigate to another horse race or event you will need to restart the script.

This script therefore gives you either one click or two click betting based on thestakes and minimum/maximum odds you specified. Combined with the auto-refreshscript you will be able to concentrate fully on the action during a race and have a

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much more relaxing experience.

You could alternatively try the single click betting software referred to in the tradingsection of this guide. This is not necessary for in-play betting if you are using theabove scripts but invaluable if you are trading.

Summary

I hope you now feel ready to have a go at this system. To get started quickly Isuggest:

1) Sign up for an account with Betfair here using Refer and Earn code

KFEULQDQGto ensure you receive your free 20.

2) Become familiar with Betfair using the on site tutorials.

3) Read this guide again then have a go at the system using small stakes.

4) Download and install the automation scripts or single click betting software tomake your betting simpler.

I wish you every success.

Commercial Notice

This guide is my own work. No part of this guide may be reproduced or resoldwithout my permission.

If you would like to enter into any form of partnership agreement to resell orredistribute this guide please email your proposal to [email protected]

Date post:	04-Jun-2018
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(eBook) Betfair Triple System

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