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ECAMED: A FEASIBILITY STUDY TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN ECA IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA Laurence ROUÏL, Simone SCHUCHT (INERIS) on behalf of the project team from:
ECAMED: A FEASIBILITY STUDY TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN
ECA IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Laurence ROUÏL, Simone SCHUCHT (INERIS)on behalf of the project team from:
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Air pollution (AP) remains one of the most sensitive environmental issues in Europeo Sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) have harmful
impacts on human health and ecosystems o > 500,000 premature deaths due to air pollution in Europe (428,000 due to PM) according to EEA’s 2017 report on
air quality in Europe Anthropogenic sources of AP are numerous : industry, residential heating, agriculture, road and off-road
transportation … and shipping By 2030 shipping emissions might be as large as inland EU emissions
Context
In-land sources - EU27
European seas
Source : EEA report, 2013
NOx emissions
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The French National Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Plan (PREPA) adopted in 2017 envisages the implementation of new low emission zones in the Mediterranean Sea
o French Ministry for Ecology interested in assessing the feasibility and the effects of the implementation of emission control areas (ECAs) in the Mediterranean Sea
o Feasibility study carried out by INERIS (coordinator), CITEPA, CEREMA and Plan Bleu
Context
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Develop emission scenarios for the implementation of a NECA (NOx emissions control area) or/and SECA (SOx emissions control Area) in the Mediterranean Sea
Assess these scenarios with respect to
o benefits for air quality
o benefits for human health
o costs & cost-benefit performance
Objectives
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreEmissions scenarios investigated
Reference situation in 2015 (=> REF 2015)
Global Sulphur Cap (MARPOL) imposing a 0.5% Sulphur content in 2020 (=> REF 2020)
SECA/NECA (=> SECA/NECA) implying Reducing SOx emissions by reducing sulphur content to 0.1% (SECA) Reducing NOx emissions by applying SCR or alternative techniques respecting TIER III cleaner
technologies (NECA) SECA-NECA scenarios assume that 50% or 100% of vessels have Tier III engines (results presented
for 100%)
NOx emission factors for the tier 1, 2 and 3 technologies
Shipping activity data kept constant at 2015/16 level No projection about future traffic, fleet or engine renewal rates
Meteorological conditions kept constant as well (2015)
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreECAMED set-up
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Description of maritime traffic in the Mediterranean sea in 2016 and 2016 based on AIS (Automatic identification System) databases combined with Lloyd’s register FAirPlay
Emissions are calculated by coupling traffic data with emission factors For the 3 scenarios REF 2015, REF 2020, SECA NECA
Concentrations and deposition are simulated by the French CHIMERE air quality model developed by the national research Centre and INERIS since 2001 used for policy support purposes and to run the national air quality forecasting system
Establishment of emission scenarios and modelling of air quality
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreEmissions by scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Reference 2015 Reference 2020 SECA NECA
SOx emissions in kt
- 606 kT ( -80% )
- 118 kT ( -77% )
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Reference 2015 Reference 2020 SECA NECA
NOx emissions in kt
- 68 kT ( -5% )
- 691 kT ( -76% )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Reference 2015 Reference 2020 SECA NECA
Total particle emissions in kt
PM2,5
PM2,5PM2,5
- 120 kT ( -72% )
- 14 kT ( -30% )
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreDaily evolution of reductions in PM2.5 concentrations (in-land) – July 2015
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreDaily evolution of reductions in NO2 concentrations (in-land) – July 2015
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreImpacts on annual means: differences between SECA-NECA & REF 2020
Absolute differences of NO2 annual mean concentrations (µg/m3)
Absolute differences of O3 summer mean concentrations (µg/m3)
Absolute differences of PM2.5 annual mean concentrations (µg/m3)
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreHealth Impacts
Health impacts considered and associated monetary unit values
Health impact Impact unit PollutantUnit valuation
(€ price base 2015)Acute Mortality (All ages) median VOLY* Premature deaths 66 728Respiratory hospital admissions (>64) Cases 2 567Cardiovascular hospital admissions (>64) Cases 2 567Minor Restricted Activity Days (MRADs all ages) Days 49Chronic Mortality (All ages) LYL median VOLY Life years lost 66 728Chronic Mortality (30yr +) deaths mean VSL** Premature deaths 2 567 364Infant Mortality (0-1yr) mean VSL Premature deaths 3 851 047Chronic Bronchitis (27yr +) Cases 61 987Bronchitis in children aged 6 to 12 Cases 680Respiratory Hospital Admissions (All ages) Cases 2 567Cardiac Hospital Admissions All ages) Cases 2 567Restricted Activity Days (all ages) Days 106Asthma symptom days (children 5-19yr) Days 49Lost working days (15-64 years) Days 150Bronchitis in children aged 5 to 14 Cases 680Respiratory Hospital Admissions (All ages) Cases 2 567Chronic Mortality (All ages) LYL median VOLY Life years lost 66 728Chronic Mortality (30yr +) deaths mean VSL Premature deaths 2 567 364
O3
PM2.5
NO2
Concentrations response functions according to WHO/Europe (2013) - HRAPIE study - Health Risks of Air Pollution in Europe. 67% of NO2 chronic mortality accounted for in monetary cost (benefit) to avoid
risk of double counting with PM2.5 chronic mortality.
(*) VOLY = Value of Life Year ; (**) VSL = Value of Statistical Life ; values for the willingness to pay by society to reduce the risk of premature mortality.
Alpha-RiskPoll tool used -developed by EMRC (Mike Holland) for use in evaluation of health benefits of European air policy Directives
Use of identical monetary values in all countries for the ECAMED study
All results presented are for 2015
All monetary values expressed in €price base 2015
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreReduction in PM2.5 premature deaths – overall ECAMED domain
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
Reference 2020 rel. to reference 2015 SECA NECA rel. to Reference 2020
Avo
ided
Pre
mat
ure
Dea
ths
Reduced mortality (premature deaths) from PM2.5 in 2015 for the ECAMED domain
4 519 avoided Premature deaths
1 728 avoid Premature d
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0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Aust
riaBu
lgar
iaCr
oatia
Cypr
usFr
ance
Gree
ceHu
ngar
yIta
lyM
alta
Rom
ania
Slov
enia
Spai
nAl
bani
aBo
snia
and
Her
zego
vina
TFYR
Mac
edon
iaM
oldo
vaRu
ssia
n Fe
dera
tion
Serb
ia a
nd M
onte
negr
oSw
itzer
land
Turk
eyUk
rain
ePa
lest
ine
Alge
riaEg
ypt
Geor
gia
Iraq
Israe
lJo
rdan
Leba
non
Libya
Mor
occo
Saud
i Ara
bia
Syria
Tuni
sia
Avoided premature deaths in 2015 owing to the reduction in PM2.5 population exposure
SECA NECA rel. to Reference 2020
Reference 2020 rel. to reference 2015
Reduction in PM2.5 premature deaths – ECAMED domain per country
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreAggregate health benefits – overall ECAMED domain
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
Reference 2020 rel. to reference2015 (low estimate)
SECA NECA rel. to Reference 2020(low estimate)
Reference 2020 rel. to reference2015 (high estimate)
SECA NECA rel. to Reference 2020(high estimate)
Bene
fits i
n €
billi
on (€
pri
ce b
ase
201
5)
Health benefits in 2015 for the ECAMED domain - Low (median VOLY) and high (mean VSL) estimate
8.9 billion € (price base 2015) health costs avoided
14.5 billion € (price base 2015) health costs avoided
8.1 billion € (price base 2015) health costs avoided
14.0 billion € (price base 2015) health costs avoided
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreHealth benefits in M€ - SECA NECA relative to REF 2020
Benefits in M€
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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titreComparing costs and health benefits - SECA NECA relative to REF 2020
