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ECODRIVE
Ecosystem Change in the North Sea:
Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios
2009 – 2012
Overarching Theme
Impact of Climate
NAO+ NAO-
NAO-Index
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Te
mp
era
ture
[°C
]
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
1
2
3
4
NA
O w
inte
r in
dex
(Ja
n-F
eb
)
NAO winter index, annnual temperature minimum in the Intermediate Winter Water (IWW) of the Bornholm Basin, Station K2, (solid line) and annual SST anomalies at Helgoland Roads (dashed line) Alheit et al. 2005
NAO winter index
North Sea
Baltic Sea
Central North Sea, anomalies: SST, phytoplankton colour, dinoflagellates, diatoms
Edwards and Johns 2006
North Sea
Regime Shift Nordsee
Edwards et al., SAHFOS Techn. Rep. (in press) CPR data
AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Kerr,
Science, 2005
Surface air temperature anomalies
(Johannessen et al. 2004)
Relative SST anomalies, plotted as five-year averages from 1910 to 2005. ICES Zooplankton Status Report 2006/07 (O’Brien et al. 2008)
Decadal changes in distributions of Northeast Atlantic calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).
Anchovy catch rates courtesy D. Reid
1990 1995 2004
Fischereiwelt (1950)
Helgoländer Meeresunters. 4 (1953)
Sardine egg abundance, Engl. Channel (Hawkins et al. 2002)
0
4
8
12
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
SS
B (
mil
l. t
on
s)
to C
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the longterm-averaged temperature (the AMO signal)
(Toresen og Østvedt 2000)
Stock collapse caused by
overfishing under a cooling climate
Start of the new herring period after 17 years of fishing
moratorium and the formation of the outstanding 1983 year class
Long-term averaged temperature
AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)
(Kerr, Science 2005)
What is impact of interactions of NAO, AMO and Global Warming on marine ecosystems?
Four winter climate regimes in SLP
(Hurrell and Deser, in press)
ECODRIVE
Methods
► Field sampling
► Retrospective time series analysis● Continuous Plankton Recorder
● Helgoland Roads Series
► Modeling
Focus on Climate
► Impact of climate variability
● North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)● Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
► Impact of Global Warming
Hering
Clupea harengus
Sprotte
Sprattus sprattus
Sardine
Sardina pilchardus
Sardelle (Anchovis)
Engraulis enchrasicolus
Time Series(field data)
Ecophysiology(abiotic)
TrophicCoupling
(biotic)
Hydro-Climate
(physics)
MSVPA ( Tertiary
Exchange )
System Description (WP1)
System Modelling (WP2)
(WP3)Past / Present
Responses
In this conceptual diagram, EVERYTHING is inter-related. The colors denote interactions.
Approach discussed at IHF. Mike sees „stoplight“ approach – as an important visualization of ecosystem state (past, present & future). The approach shown can be used for „everything, or all ecosystem components“ or just selected key species... The latter might be better, but selling both is likely worthwhile.
WP1 compiles information on field data and basic species-specific interactions (trophic coupling between key species) and includes basic ecophysiology (abiotic controls on species groups, etc). Basically, this is a WP where we assemble what is known. Additional cruises (proposed field data collection) can be added here.
Knowledge from WP1 is then combined with modelling efforts in WP2 that produce time series (red + blue = purple). WP2 delivers time series (e.g., stratification, temperature, turbulence – physical factors that influence biology). The informed proxies come out of this retrospective analysis (WP1 & Wp2) along with model improvement (NPZD groups better defined based upon work from WP1. Yellow chosen here as the third primary color.
The combination of yellow & blue = green (future scenarios). Drivers like eutrophication and exploitation levels/patterns should be included. Regional downscaling based on IPCC scenarios can be used to run hydrodynamics models... That drive future change based upon work in WP4.
The big circle is project intergration WP (6)....
(WP6)projectintegration
(WP4)InformedProxies
(WP5)Future
Senarios
NPZD( phyto-Zoopl )
3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0
Longitude [deg E ]
Tem perature [°C ]
53.0
53.5
54.0
54.5
55.0
Latit
ude
[deg
N]
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0
Longitude [deg E ]
Tem perature [°C ]
53.0
53.5
54.0
54.5
55.0
Latit
ude
[deg
N]
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
3.0 4.0 5 .0 6.0 7.0 8 .0 9 .0
Longitude [deg E ]
Tem perature [°C ]
53.0
53.5
54.0
54.5
55.0
Latit
ude
[deg
N]
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
5 10 50 100500
1 5 1050
Sprat
Sardine
Sardelle
Egg and larvae distribution of anchovies and sardines in German Bight
1951 2003
Smoother & confidence interval
Smoother Upper limit Low er limit
1999199719951993199119891987198519831981
3
2
1
Smoother & confidence interval
Smoother Upper limit Low er limit
1999199719951993199119891987198519831981
3
2
1
Acartia
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
biom
ass
anom
aly
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Temora
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
biom
ass
anom
aly
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Sprat
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
biom
ass
anom
aly
-1.5e+6
-1.0e+6
-5.0e+5
0.0
5.0e+5
1.0e+6
1.5e+6
2.0e+6
Diatoms Dinoflagellates
Regime Shift Baltic Sea
Wasmund and Uhlig 2003
Changes on 3 trophic levels:
- phytoplankton
- zooplankton
- fish
Alheit et al. 2005