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Ecological Consequences of Climate Change
Miklós KertészIEB HAS
U.S
. Bu
rea
u o
f the
Ce
ns
us
Go
lde
wijk
an
d B
attje
s (1
99
7)
Global Change
• Human Population • Land Cover• Species Extinctions
• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System
• Much more than climate change• Socio-economic as well as biophysical
Features
Re
id &
Mille
r (19
89
)
Distribution of forests – before major human impact
Distribution of forests - present
West European Heat Wave 2003
• 30% less primary production• 0.5 Gt carbon source• Delayed impact of forest crown damage• Oxygene depletion in deep lakes
• Decline of mollusc species richness• Extensive wildfires
• 5% of forests in Portugal, €1 billion
Coral reefs• diversity hot-spot, high production, carbon sink• breeding habitat for pelagic fishes, crustaceans, and cnidaria• recreation value
Decaying coral reefs• increase of temperature, dying of simbiont cyanobacteria• fishery• turism, collection
Growing coral reefs
Atelopus, smalltropical frogs1950s and 60s: Import of South Africal Xenopus laevis to the developed countries for obtaining reagent for pregnancy test
From 1970s: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection of tropical frogs in Central and South Americas, and Australia
2006: 70 Central and South Americal Atelopus species extinct out of 110-112
Climate effect
agriculture
Sessile oak
Sessileoak + hornbeam
beech
Steppe +Dawny oak
South North
agriculture
Sessile oakSessileoak + hornbeam
Beech ?
Steppe +Dawny oak
South North
??
Habitat change
• Degradation• Specialist → Generalist• K-strategist → r-strategist• Species of → Species of
small distribution large distribution
• Biological invasions
• System collapse
Distribution of forests – before major human impact
Distribution of forests - present
Provisioning services • foods (including seafood and game) and spices• precursors to pharmaceutical and industrial products• energy (hydropower, biomass fuels)
Regulating services • carbon sequestration and climate regulation• waste decomposition and detoxification• nutrient dispersal and cycling
Supporting services • purification of water and air• crop pollination and seed dispersal• pest and disease control
Cultural services • cultural, intellectual and spiritual inspiration• recreational experiences (including ecotourism)• scientific discovery
Preserving services • genetic and species diversity for future use• accounting for uncertainty• protection of options
Major sources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch
International Geoshpere-Biosphere Programme
http://www.igbp.kva.se