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Monetary Policy Group March 2021

Economic and Monetary Conditions February 2021

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3

Agricultural sector

Manufacturing sector

Service sector

2.2 Domestic Demand 5

Private consumption

Private investment

Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 8

The global economy

External sector

Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 10

Corporate financing

Interest rates

Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 12

Inflation

Labor market

Stability and financial condition of corporate sector

External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 14

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

1

1. Executive Summary

In February 2021, the Thai economy gradually improved as the spread of the COVID-19 subsided. Private consumption indicators recovered in all spending categories thanks to improvement in economic activities and stimulus measures from the government. Private investment indicators expanded at a higher rate on the back of higher imports of capital goods. Meanwhile, merchandise exports value, excluding gold, continued to expand consistent with the trading partners’ demand. Public spending maintained its expansion partly due to the low base from last year. However, contraction in the tourism sector remained high due to travel restrictions on foreign tourist arrivals.

On the economic stability front, headline inflation rate became more negative primarily due to measures from the government aimed at reducing costs of living. Labor market remained vulnerable. The current account registered a higher deficit compared to the previous month.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

Private consumption indicators contracted at a smaller rate from the same period last year due to improvement in all spending categories, especially non- durables good, thanks to the relaxation of the containment measures as the outbreak situation improved, and the government stimulus measures, all of which helped support the recovery of household consumption and the overall economic activities.

Private investment indicators expanded at a faster pace from the same period last year, following a rapid growth in machinery and equipment category as imports of capital goods accelerated. The improvement was in line with business sentiment and the recovery path of exports. Nevertheless, investment in constructions contracted at a higher rate from contraction in the sales of construction material, reflecting subdued activities in the construction sector.

The value of merchandise exports maintained its level close to the same period last year. Excluding gold, which displayed a large negative growth due to high base last year, exports value continued to expand at 7 . 0 percent. Several export categories continued to improve in tandem with the trading partners’ demand. Moreover, exports of electronic products continued to benefit from the upward trend of global electronics cycle, while exports of petroleum- related products rebounded both in terms of prices and volumes. Manufacturing production contracted at a smaller rate from improvement in the production of integrated circuits and semiconductors as well as food and beverage, while the production growth of automotive and parts rebounded from the low base last year.

The value of merchandise imports expanded remarkably by 23.9 percent from the same period last year, compared with the contraction rate of 6. 9 percent in the previous month. The sharp expansion was observed in all categories due to 1) the low base last year as imports collapsed after the lockdown measures in China, and 2) increases in imports from the previous month, especially in the raw materials and intermediate goods category.

Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year, from both current and capital expenditures. In particular, capital expenditures of the central government expanded

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

2

sharply due to low base effect from the delayed enforcement of the FY2020 budget last year. Meanwhile, current expenditure slightly expanded from purchases of goods and services.

The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to contract sharply from the same period last year as travel restrictions remained which resulted in a small number of foreign tourist arrivals.

On the stability front, headline inflation rate became more negative following a decline in price level of all major categories, mainly owing to government measures that reduced costs of living by subsidizing electricity and water bill. Labor market remained vulnerable as reflected by an increase in the ratio of jobless claims to total contributors in the social security system. The current account registered a higher deficit compared to the previous month.

.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

3

2.1 Supply

Farm income continued to expand from higher agricultural prices, while the growth rate of manufacturing production became less negative in line with the gradual recovery of demand. The services sector contracted by a smaller rate as economic activities improved after the relaxation of containment measures.

Nominal Farm Income

Real Farm Income

Manufacturing Production Index

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

405060708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Jul Jan 2021

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1.1 %

-1.1 %

1.8 %

%MoM sa

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2021 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2020

2020 2021

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 2 . . . .2 . . . . 2. Automotives . 2 . 2. . 2 . . . .2 . - Passenger Cars . . . . . . . . . - Commercial Vehicles .2 2 . 2.2 2.2 2 . . . . . - Engine . 2 . . . 2 . .2 2. . .

Petroleum . . . . . .2 . . . Chemicals . 2. . .2 .2 . . 2. 2. Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . 2. . 2. Construction & Non-metal . . . . . . . . . IC & Semiconductors . . 2. 2. . . .2 . 2 . Electrical Appliances . . . . . . . . .2Textiles & Apparels . 2 . . 2 . .2 2 . . 2 . . Hard Disk Drive . 2.2 . . . . . . . Others . . .2 . . . 2. . . MPI . . .2 . . . 2. . . MPI sa ∆% from last period . . .2 2. . . . Capacity Utilization (SA) . . 2. . . . .

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma(%YoY) 20202 2 2021

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb

Nominal farm incomeP .5 6.4 8.6 .2 1.6 7.2 7.1

Agricultural productionP .3 9.6 -0.1 .0 0.5 0.1 -1.4

Agricultural price

.1 . .7 . .0 7.1 8.6

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

4

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Capacity Utilization (sa)

Service Production Index (SPI)

Service Production Index (SPI) by Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Trade (32%) Finance (14%)

Transport (8%) Hotel & Restaurant (10%, RHS)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Service Production Index

Market Services (share 83%)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

75

85

95

105

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Jul Jan 2021

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)**

%MoM sa2.9%

** As the data from April to June 2020 was not published, the index was estimated from the Q2 2020 data. Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

-1.8 %

9.0 %

Dec 20

(%)Share2016R

2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP

Food & Beverages 2 . . . . . .2 .

Automotives . . 2 . . . . .

Petroleum . . . . . . .

Chemicals . . . . 2. . .

Rubbers & Plastics . . 2. . . . .

Construction & Non-metal . . . . 2. . 2.

IC & Semiconductors . . . . . . .

Electrical Appliances . 2. . . . 2. .

Textiles & Apparels . . .2 2. . . .

Hard Disk Drive . . . . . . .

Others . . . . . . .

CAPU sa . . . . . . .

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2021 Revision P = Preliminary data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

5

2.2 Domestic Demand Private consumption indicators recovered thanks to improvement in economic activities and stimulus measures

from the government. Meanwhile, private investment indicators expanded at a faster pace following a rapid growth in machinery and equipment category. Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from both current and capital expenditures.

Private Consumption Indicators

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

%YoY 2 2 2 2 2 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoMsa

Non-durables index - . -2. - . .2 - . - . - . . Semi-durables index - . - . - . - .2 -2. -2. . . Durables index - 2. -2 . - . - . . - 2. - . . Services index -2 . - . -2 . -2 . -2 . -2 . - . 2. (less) Net tourist expenditure

- . - . - . - . - .2 - . - . - .

PCI - . - . . . . - . -2. . 70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Semi-durable, 3mma Durable, 3mma

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Bank of Thailand

90100110120130140150160170

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Nielsen’s FMCG excl. alcohol and tobacco, mmaFuel, 3mma (RHS)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

04080120160200240

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Service, 3mma Net tourist spending, 3mma (RHS)

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

6

Consumer Confidence Index

Private Investment Indicators

Investment in Machinery and Equipment

Investment in Construction

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Diffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

% YoY 2 2 2 2 2 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Febp %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -2. - . - .2 - . - . - . - . .2

Construction Materials Index - . -2. - . - . - . . - . -2.

Real Imports of Capital Goods - . - . - . - . - . . . .

Real Domestic Machinery Sales - . - .2 . - . . . . . Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment

- . - . -2. - . . - . - .2 .

Private Investment Index - .2 - . -2. - . . . . . Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Real Imports of Capital GoodsReal Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)

1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

7

Business Sentiment Index

Fiscal Position (Cash Basis)

Central Government Current Expenditure

(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure

(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

State Owned Enterprises Capital Expenditure

Feb 2145.6

May 2151.3

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

30

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Jul Jan2021

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months) Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Billion baht FY2019 FY2020FY2020 FY2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan FebP

Revenue 2, 2, 2 (%YoY) ( . ) (- . ) ( . ) (-2. ) (- . ) ( . ) (- . ) (- . ) (-2 . )

Expenditure 1/ 2, , 2 2 (%YoY) ( .2) ( .2) (- . ) ( . ) (2 . ) ( . ) (2 . ) (- . ) (-2. )

Budgetary B/L - - - -22 -2 - - 2 - - Non-Budgetary B/L 2 -2 - - - - - 2 -

Cash B/L (CG) - - -2 -2 - - - - - Primary balance 2/ - - 2 -2 -22 - - - - -

Net Financing , 22 Treasury B/L 2 2

60

110

160

210

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-20 FY2020 FY2021

Billion baht

Feb2.1%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-20 FY2020 FY2021

Billion baht

Feb93.3%

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-20 FY2020 FY2021

Billion baht

Feb19.1%

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

8

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

Merchandise exports value, excluding gold, continued to expand in line with the trading partners’ demand. Nevertheless, the tourism sector still contracted sharply as restrictions on international travel remained. The current account recorded a higher deficit compared to the previous month.

G3 Retail Sales

Asian Export Performance

Export Value

Import Value

85

95

105

115

125

135

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

US (Feb) Euro Area* (Jan) Japan (Jan)

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Feb 21

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas. Hongkong domestic export. Singapore domestic export excludes oil.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PH

IDMY

TH

TWCN

SGKR

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non -residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2020

2020P2020P 2021P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebFeb

(%MoM)

Agriculture . .2 2. . . .2 . 2 . 4.9Fishery . .2 . . . . . . 5.8Manufacturing .2 . . . . . . 2. -2.4Agro-manufacturing 3. .2 . . . . . .3 -1.5Electronics .2 .3 . 3.3 . . . . . Electrical Appliances . .2 . . . . . .2 . Automotive 3.2 . 2 . . . . .2 .2 3. Machinery & Equipment .2 .2 . . . .3 . .2 2.

Petroleum Related . . . . . . 3. 3.3 . Total (BOP Basis) . . .3 . .2 . .3 .2 . Ex. Gold . 2.3 . . . . . . Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related .2 . . . . . .2 3.2

Feb 2021 = 20.1 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 20.0 Bn USDJan 2021 = 19.6 Bn USD

Ex. Gold = 19.5 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2020 2020P

2020P 2021P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebFeb

(%MoM)

Consumer . .2 . . 2. . . . 2. Raw material & Intermediate . . 3. .2 . 2. . 23. 2.

o/w Fuel 2. 2 . 2 .3 23. 2 . .2 3 . . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel 2. . .3 .3 3. 3. .2 2 . .

Capital 23. 2. .2 2. . . .3 2 . .

Others . 2 . 23. . 3 . 3.3 2. . .

Total (BOP Basis) . 3. .2 2. . . . 23. .

Ex. Gold 2. 3. 2. . . . . .

Ex.Gold&Fuel . .2 . . . . 19.9 4.1%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Feb 2021 = 18.0 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 16.8 Bn USD

Jan 2021 = 17.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 16.7 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

9

Net Financial Flows

Balance of Payments

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Millions of USD 2019P 2020P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 H2 Q3 Q41. Assets 33 3 33 TDI 3 3 2 3 3

- Equity 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 3 3 3 22 3 2

Thai portfolio investment 3 2 3 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 - Debt security investment 2 3 3 3 3 23 3 3

Loans 3 2 2 2 3 3 32 Other investments 2 23 2 3 2 3 3 3

- Trade credits 2 2 2 3 23 2 22 2 3 - Deposits abroad 23 2 2 2 32

2. Liabilities 3 32 23 2 2 FDI 2 3 2 2 32 323

- Equity 3 2 3 2 22 2 3 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2

Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 233 3 - Equity security investment 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2

Loans 2 2 3 2 3 Other investments 33 3 2 3 2

- Trade credits 2 3 2 2 3 - Deposits abroad 2 3 3 3 3 3

Total financial flows (1+2) 3 2

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Billion USD 2020P2020P 2021P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 JanE FebE YTDTrade Balance 3 . . 2 . 3. .2 . 2. . Exports (f.o.b.) 22 . . . . . . 2 . 3 .

%YoY . .3 . .2 . .3 .2 .3Imports (f.o.b.) . 2. .3 . . . . 3 .

%YoY 3. .2 2. . . . 23. . Net Services, Income & Transfers 23. . . . . 2. 3.2 . Current Account .3 . .2 . . . . . Capital and Financial Account 3. . . . . Overall Balance 18.4 . 2.9 3.3 -0.4 . .2 . Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20202020 2021

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP

China (27.9%) -88.8 8.1 . . 99.9 . -99.8

Malaysia (10.7%) -85.5 -68.8 . . . . -100.0

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.7%)

-84.7 -68.2 . . -99.9 . -99.8

Russia (3.7%) -60.4 2 . . . . . -99.9

Europe ex. Russia (12.6%)

. 3. . . . .4 -99.6

India (4.9%) -86.7 2. . . . . -99.9

Others (9.4%) 3. . . . . .5 -99.3Total(million persons)

-83.2(6.7)

.2(6.7)

99.9(0.0)

-100.0(0.0)

99.9(0.0)

.8 (0.0)

.7 (0.0)

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Total China (28%) Malaysia (11%)East Asia ex. CN MY (31%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Feb 21

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

10

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Total corporate financing increased slightly mainly from business credits. New loan extended to the household sector continued to increase. The monthly average Thai baht against the US dollar was stable from the previous month, while the NEER appreciated slightly.

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*

Government Bond Yields

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht

-2.0

-1.4

-0.8

-0.2

0.4

1.0

1.6

2.2

2.8

-200-160-120-80-40

04080

120160200240280320

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21Ja

n-17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Feb 2021P

Feb2021P

-150-100-50

050

100150200250300

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Jul-2

0

Oct-2

0

Jan-

21

Business Credits outlier (SA)* Business Credits (SA)Equity Debt3MMA

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par value

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Feb 21P

* A large corporate’s foreign borrowing for business acquisition purpose

0.37

0.51

1.08

1.90

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20Ap

r-20

Jul-2

0Oc

t-20

Jan-

21

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

0.50

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 23 Mar 21

%

* End of Period ** Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of AyudhyaSource: Bank of Thailand

% p.a. 20192020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb 23 Mar

2-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.19

7.59

6.89

7.73

8.44

.75

.26

.84

.93

7.13

7.41

.64

.66

8.32

.49

0.99

.60

.36

6.71

6.87

.00

.12

7.89

.49

0.88

.58

.36

6.69

6.86

.00

.09

7.89

0.49

0.89

0.56

5.36

6.69

6.84

6.00

7.09

7.93

0.49

0.89

0.56

5.36

6.69

6.79

6.00

7.09

7.93

0.48

0.89

0.56

5.36

6.59

6.79

6.00

7.09

7.93

0.46

0.89

0.56

5.36

6.59

6.79

6.00

7.09

7.93

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

11

Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Movement

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

716

-Feb

-18

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

813

-Jul-1

83-

Sep-

1819

-Oct

-18

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

98-

May

-19

26-Ju

n-19

15-A

ug-1

91-

Oct-1

919

-Nov

-19

9-Ja

n-20

26-F

eb-2

014

-Apr

-20

4-Ju

n-20

22-Ju

l-20

14-S

ep-2

02-

Nov-

2022

-Dec

-20

9-Fe

b-21

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Index (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

Mar 2 21 USDTHB = 30.65NEER25 = 122.14

Mar 2021(Average data until 23 Mar 2021)

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

22-Ju

l-19

21-A

ug-1

918

-Sep

-19

17-O

ct-1

915

-Nov

-19

17-D

ec-1

916

-Jan-

2014

-Feb

-20

13-M

ar-2

013

-Apr

-20

14-M

ay-2

012

-Jun-

2013

-Jul-2

013

-Aug

-20

14-S

ep-2

012

-Oct

-20

11-N

ov-2

014

-Dec

-20

13-Ja

n-21

10-F

eb-2

112

-Mar

-21

HKD THB CNY INR IDR KRW MYR SGD TWD PHP

As of 23 Mar 2021

-1.5%-1.0%

-0.6% -0.4% -0.17% -0.1% -0.1%

0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%

1.6%

-2.8%

-1.7%-1.3%

-0.7%

-1.30%

-1.1%

-2.4%-2.2%

-0.8% -0.6%-0.2% -0.1%

0.2%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

JPY KRW EUR PHP MYR SGD IDR THB TWD CNY VND INR GBP

Avg of Feb 21 compared to avg of Jan 21

Avg of Mar 21 compared to avg of Feb 21

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Mar 2021(Average data

until 23 Mar 2021)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

12

2.5 Financial Stability

Headline inflation rate became more negative following a decline in price level of all major categories, mainly owing to government measures that reduced costs of living. Labor market remained vulnerable as reflected by an increase in the ratio of jobless claims to total contributors in the social security system.

Headline Inflation Contribution

Core Inflation Contribution

Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33

%YoY

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Raw food (20.55%)Energy (12.39%)Core Inflation (67.06%)

Feb -1.17%

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

Rent (21.75%)Food & Beverage (29.53%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (48.72%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

%YoY

Feb 0.04%( ) Share in Core Inflation

Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees

reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21

Restaurant & RecreationOtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & PlasticsAutomotives

Man

-Mon

th (1

,000

Wor

kers

-Mon

th)

As of 16th

Feb 2021

0.0

0.7

1.4

2.1

2.8

3.5

4.2

4.9

Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul Jan2021

%, SA

Feb 21

Jobless Claims (stock)

Note: * Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Initial Jobless Claims (flow)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

13

External Debt Outstanding

External Stability Indicators

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall

OPM P50 RoA P50 (RHS)Percentage Percentage

Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors

Note: 50th percentile, *Manufacturing excludes petroleum and petrochemical, Services include Hotel, Education and Hospital .Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

Interest Coverage Ratio by Sectors

Note: 50th percentile, *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical, Services include Hotel, Education and Hospital.Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

1Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Q1/6

1 Q3

/61

Q1/6

2Q3

/62

Q1/6

3Q3

/63

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall

ICR P50 D/E P50 (RHS)Times Times

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P 2020P 2020P Change Q4/20-Q3/20H1 H2 Q3 Q4

1. General government .2 . . . .5 . 2.22. Central Bank* . . .2 . 2. . . 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) . . . . . . . 4. Other Sectors .2 . . . . . .

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) . 2 . 2 .2 2 . 2 . 2 . 2. - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) . . . . . . . O/W Foreign Trade Credit 2 .5 2 .5 22. 2 .5 2 .2 2 .5 .

5. Total . . . . . . . Short-term (%) . . . . . . Long-term (%) 5.2 . . . . .

Criteria 2019P 2020P2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4

Solvency Indicators

Current Account / GDP (%)

Debt / GDP (%) < /

Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /

Debt Service Ratio (%) 7.8 8.7

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times

ST Debt / Total Debt (%)

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

14

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics http://www.oie.go.th/view/1/Home/EN-US

Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/

Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

15

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2021

16

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636