Economic and Social Economic and Social Conditions in Africa Conditions in Africa ECA Presentation to the Committee of Experts 29-30 May 2003 Addis Ababa
Transcript
Slide 1
Economic and Social Conditions in Africa ECA Presentation to
the Committee of Experts 29-30 May 2003 Addis Ababa
Slide 2
Overview Economic growth in 2002 Trade---commodity prices
Finance---ODA, FDI HIV/AIDS Poverty Medium-term Outlook
Slide 3
African economic performance was below expectations
Slide 4
Distribution of GDP growth rates of Africa, 1998-2003 (Number
of countries)
Slide 5
Real GDP growth rates, the top 10 and the bottom 5 African
countries, 2002 (%)
Slide 6
Unfavorable weather stunted agriculture In Kenya flooding
affected 30,000 people. In Northern Senegal flooding killed 500,000
livestock, destroyed 20,000 homes, and damaged 2,500 hectares of
crops. Algeria agricultural output fell by 3.2% in 2002, partly
because of flooding in the east in July and August. Tunisias
agricultural output declined by 14% Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho,
Malawi, Mauritania, Namibia, Niger, Swaziland, Tunisia, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe suffered severe drought.
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Despite heterogeneous conditions performance was generally
even
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Largest economies--- mixed performance South Africa grew by
3.5% up from 2% ---driven by higher precious metal prices, strong
tourism receipts and domestic demand Nigeria contracted by 3% amid
oil cutbacks, political uncertainty and excessive government
spending that pushed up inflation
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Largest economiesmixed (contd.) GDP growth in Algeria was weak
at 1.9% down from 3% in 2001. GDP dominated by investments in oil
sector but constrained by OPEC quota Inflation spiralled upwards
and current account worsened to 14% from 8 % in 2001 high youth
unemployment and the pace of reforms clouded the outlook.
Slide 10
Regional Inflation in check CPI inflation fell to 7.8% down
from 15% in 2001 reflecting increased fiscal discipline across the
region However, inflationary pressures remain a concern in Angola,
Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe
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But the external account worsened Regional current account
deficit increased to 2% of GDP Due to a decline in the surpluses of
Nigeria and Algeria This was offset in part by a current account
surplus in South Africa as a result of higher prices for gold and
other precious metals
Slide 12
amid heightened global uncertainty U.S. economy slowed
appreciably in Q2 In Q3 despite volatile downward spiral in equity
prices, consumer and business sentiment deteriorated as new orders
for goods and services stagnated
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U.S. recovery pauses
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growth in Europe remained weak
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Is this a double dip slowdown?
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World Trade In H1 world trade was slowly recovering from its
worst growth performance in two decades Oil prices rose
markedlytopping USD 35 at end of 2002 fuelled by war fears Gold was
also up by 17% to USD 320/oz Coffee was recovering from its lows
thanks to expectations of a lower Brazilian crop.
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Intra-African trade is low Intra-Africa trade accounts for only
12% of Sub-Saharan exports, up 8% from 1989. Five countries
dominate Intra-African trade Cte dIvoire, Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe,
and Ghana. Very little or no trade occurs between countries that
are geographically distant, such as Nigeria and Tanzania.
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AidPledges increase European union ---all members should meet
or exceed the EU average of 0.33% by 2006 US increased its ODA by
50% through Millennium Challenge Account yielding an extra $15
billion through 2006 Canadapledged CAN$6 billion over five
years
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ODA by sector shows worrying trends
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Dramatic drop in FDI $17B $6B
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29.4M adults and children live with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002
Total: 42 million Western Europe 570 000 North Africa & Middle
East 550 000 Sub-Saharan Africa 29.4 million Eastern Europe &
Central Asia 1.2 million South & South-East Asia 6 million
Australia & New Zealand 15 000 North America 980 000 Caribbean
440 000 Latin America 1.5 million East Asia & Pacific 1.2
million
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2.4M adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002 Total:
3.1 million Western Europe 8 000 North Africa & Middle East 37
000 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 million Eastern Europe & Central
Asia 25 000 East Asia & Pacific 45 000 South & South-East
Asia 440 000 Australia & New Zealand