Economic Capsule January 2012

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ECONOMIC CAPSULE

January 2012

C o n t e n t s

ECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS Credit to Private Sector Hits New High

Excess Liquidity in the Domestic Money Market Decline

CBSL Raises Rates for the First Time in Five Years

Sri Lanka Moves up in the Economic Freedom Index 2012

Global Tourist Arrivals up 4% in 2011; Expected to Reach 1 Bn Mark in 2012

Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals up 31% in 2011

2012, Another Positive Year for Tourism – BMI

Sri Lanka Among Top 5, Best for Weddings – Kouni

Sri Lanka 2012: Key Factors to Watch

Euro Zone Downgrades

IMF World Economic Outlook Projections

World Economic Growth is Originating Almost Exclusively from the Emerging World

Sanctions on Iran Oil

Analysis & Forecast CBSL Projections for 2012

Swimming Against the Tide – How Feasible?


Fitch Ratings 2012 Outlook: Sri Lankan Banks

Sri Lanka SEC Allows more Broker Credit

FINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS

ECONOMY & BUSINESS NEWS

Credit to Private Sector Hits New High


Credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector increased by 34.5 %, year-on-year, in December 2011, substantially exceeding projections.

Provisional estimates indicate that within the credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks, trade related credit and credit driven by import related items such as motor vehicles and consumer durables increased significantly.

Import related credit increased by over 34 % during 2011, while the increase in credit for export activity was only around 8 % during the year. Pawning also displayed a significant increase in 2011.

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC

Excess Liquidity in the Domestic Money Market Decline


At the same time, excess liquidity in the domestic money market declined from Rs.124 bn as at end 2010 to the current level of around Rs 15-20 bn, and such decline in liquidity in the domestic money market led to market interest rates recording an upward movement in recent months.

With excess liquidity declining, commercial banks also competitively raised interest rates paid on deposits, with rates on 3-month and 6-month term deposits showing a considerable increase during the past few months.

Taking into consideration these macroeconomic developments, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka is of the view that the continuous increase in credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks needs to be addressed for two main reasons:

To curtail import related credit, thereby reducing the trade deficit and the current account deficit, To effectively ensure that inflation remains at the mid-single digit levels in the second half of

2012 as well, notwithstanding the sharp build up of credit in 2011.Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka


CBSL Raises Rates for the First Time in Five Years


Date of Change Repo (%) RRepo (%)

23.02.2007 10.50 12.00

11.02.2009 10.25 11.75

22.04.2009 9.00 -

21.05.2009 - 11.50

16.06.2009 8.50 11.00

11.09.2009 8.00 10.50

18.11.2009 7.50 9.75

12.07.2010 7.25 9.50

20.08.2010 7.25 9.00

11.01.2011 7.00 8.50

02.02.2012 7.50 9.00

Central Bank w.e.f. 2nd February 2012, increased both the

Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate by 50 basis

points each. Hence, the Repurchase rate and the Reverse

Repurchase rate of the Central Bank will be 7.50% and 9.00%,

respectively.

The Monetary Board also decided to direct commercial banks to moderate their credit disbursements so that the overall credit growth in 2012 will not exceed 18 % of their respective loan book outstanding at the end of 2011, while credit growth of up to 23 % will be allowed for those banks, which finance the excess up to 5 % of the credit growth, from funds mobilised from overseas.

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka


Sri Lanka Moves up in the Economic Freedom Index 2012


According to the Heritage Foundation, notable changes have been implemented in key areas. Regulatory efficiency has been considerably enhanced through establishment of a streamlined business formation process and simplification of licensing requirements. Non-tariff barriers are relatively low, statutory tariff rates have been reduced, and many import surcharges have been eliminated.

Nevertheless, challenges to economic freedom in Sri Lanka are considerable, particularly in strengthening the fundamentals. Property rights are undermined by an inefficient judicial system that remains susceptible to substantial corruption and political influence. The heavy state presence in the economy continues to hamper private-sector development.

Sri Lanka has moved up 10 places in the 2012 global economic freedom index released by The Heritage Foundation in partnership with The Wall Street Journal.

Sri Lanka has been ranked as the world’s 97th freest economy in the 2012 index out of 184 countries, higher in comparison to the 107th place in 2011. Sri Lanka is also ranked at 16th out of 41 countries in the Asia–Pacific region.

Source: www.heritage.org


Global Tourist Arrivals up 4% in 2011; Expected to Reach 1 Bn Mark in 2012


International tourist arrivals grew by 4.4% in 2011 to total 980 mn, up from 939 mn in 2010, in a year characterised by a stalled global economic recovery, major political changes in the Middle East and North Africa and natural disasters in Japan.

By region, Europe (+6%) was the best performer, while by sub region South-America (+10%) topped the ranking. Contrary to previous years, growth was higher in advanced economies (+5.0%) than in emerging ones (+3.8%), due largely to the strong results in Europe, and the setbacks in the Middle East and North Africa.

Among the top ten tourist destinations, receipts were up significantly in the USA (+12%), Spain (+9%), Hong Kong (China) (+25%) and the UK (+7%).

The top spenders were led by emerging source markets China (+38%), Russia (+21%), Brazil (+32%) and India (+32%) followed by traditional markets, with the growth in expenditure of travellers from Germany (+4%) and the USA (+5%) above the levels of previous years.

Prospects for 2012 The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts international

tourism to continue growing in 2012 although at a slower rate. Arrivals are expected to increase by 3% to 4%, reaching the historic one billion mark by the end of the year.

Emerging economies will regain the lead with stronger growth in Asia and the Pacific and Africa (4% to 6%), followed by the Americas and Europe (2% to 4%). The Middle East (0% to +5%) is forecast to start to recover part of its losses from 2011.

Source: UNWTO


Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals up 31% in 2011


Sri Lanka's tourist arrivals in 2011 jumped by 30.8 % to a record 855,975 from a year ago with the peak season month of December also at a new high.

Sri Lanka's previous record high for tourist arrivals had been 654,476 in 2010 with the tourism boom starting after the island's 30-year ethnic war ended in 2009 with arrivals rising ever since.

Tourism Earnings increased to USD 830.3 mn for 2011 from USD 575.9 mn in 2010.

Source: CBSL/ Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority


2012, Another Positive Year for Tourism – BMI


Business Monitor International (BMI) believes the outlook is still bright for Sri Lanka tourism and forecast a 55% rise in tourist arrivals to 1.42 mn tourists over BMIs newly extended forecast period to 2016.

It is clear that 2012 will be another boon year for hotel construction and renovation, the BMI stated in its report. Hambantota will also reportedly be established as a significant export hub for cargo planes, which could free up space at Bandaranaike for more tourist flights.

The BMI, a London-based company, publishes specialist business information on global emerging markets for senior executives in more than 125 countries worldwide.

Sri Lanka has been named among the top five destinations in Kuoni’s annual Travel Trends Report of where UK customers want to spend their holidays. Sri Lanka also retained the number one destination for weddings, according to the report.

The Report’s 2012 figures are based on holiday bookings made as at December 2011. National Geographic and Condé Nast Traveller also named Sri Lanka among ‘Best Trips for

2012.

Sri Lanka Among Top 5, Best for Weddings – Kouni


http://www.ft.lk/2012/01/30/2012-another-positive-year-for-tourism-bmi/print/

http://www.addmarx.com/

The efforts taken to facilitate the economic recovery in advanced countries and their implications for the rest of the world.

How the growth in credit will be managed. Possible spikes in inflation due to higher import prices (in terms of rupees) following the rupee

devaluation. Export performance - efforts taken to diversify our export markets, particularly in view of sluggish

conditions prevailing in our main export markets, i.e. US & EU. How the trade deficit will be managed and its implications for the exchange rate. The compromise that will need to be achieved between the objective of attaining high GDP growth and

the objective of keeping the rate of inflation at a low level. Whether the government will continue with its efforts to keep the budget deficit under control. The law and order situation in the country. Progress in relation to FDI inflows. Sri Lanka’s progress in finding alternative sources to fulfill its oil import requirements in the wake of

sanctions on oil imports from Iran. Movements in the price of oil - impact from possible dip in demand for oil from US & EU and also impact

of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

Sri Lanka 2012: Key Factors to Watch



Euro Zone Downgrades


S&P Downgrades Euro Zone Standard & Poor's Ratings lowered the long-term ratings on Cyprus,

Italy, Portugal, and Spain by two notches; lowered the long-term ratings on Austria, France, Malta, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia, by one notch; and

Affirmed the long-term ratings on Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

The outlooks on long-term ratings on all but two of the 16 eurozone sovereigns are negative; the outlooks on the long-term ratings on Germany and Slovakia are stable .

Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other Euro Zone Ratings Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus,

Italy, Slovenia and Spain, indicating there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two years. Ireland's rating of BBB-plus was affirmed.

All of the ratings were given negative outlooks.


IMF World Economic Outlook Projections


2010 2011e 2012f 2013fWorld Output1 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9Advance Economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9United States 3.0 1.8 1.8 2.2Euro Area 1.9 1.6 -0.5 0.8 Germany 3.6 3.0 0.3 1.5 France 1.4 1.6 0.2 1.0 Italy 1.5 0.4 -2.2 -0.6 Spain -0.1 0.7 -1.7 -0.3United Kingdom 2.1 0.9 0.6 2.0Japan 4.4 -0.9 1.7 1.6Emerging & Developing Economies2 7.3 6.2 5.4 5.9Developing Asia 9.5 7.9 7.3 7.8 China 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8 India 9.9 7.4 7.0 7.3Brazil 7.5 2.9 3.0 4.0

World Trade Volume 12.7 6.9 3.8 5.4Oil3 27.9 31.9 -4.9 -3.6

(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

1 The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 % of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.2 The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 % of the emerging and developing economies.3 Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $104.23 in 2011; the assumed price based on futures markets is $99.09 in 2012 and $95.55 in 2013.

The global recovery is threatened by intensifying strains in the euro area and fragilities elsewhere. Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated.This is largely because the euro area economy is now expected to go into a mild recession in 2012 as a result of the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update – January, 2012


World Economic Growth is Originating Almost Exclusively from the Emerging World


The IMF released its updated take on the world's economic growth prospects on January 24, 2012. Dragged down by the euro crisis, the Fund expects world economic output to slow to 3.3% in 2012, against an estimate of 3.8% for 2011. This is 0.7 percentage points lower than the forecast it made in September.

Emerging markets account for around half of global economic output but, given the continued process of deleveraging across the rich world, the IMF expects them to contribute over 80% of world GDP growth in 2012.

America's contribution is expected to decline from 21% on average during the 1980s to 10% during 2010-13. Meanwhile China's contribution has increased from 8% in the 1980s to 31% on average for 2010-13.

Source: The Economist


Sanctions on Iran Oil


Iran is the world’s 5th largest oil producer, extracting 3.5 mn barrels a day (mbd), around 5% of global production and the 3rd largest exporter of crude oil. Iran’s location at a key oil supply route (the Strait of Hormuz), where production capacity is concentrated and through which about 40 % of global oil exports and one-fourth of global production is shipped.

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Crude Imports from Iran vs. Trade Exposures to US

On December 31, 2011 US President approved legislation imposing sanctions on foreign banks dealing with Iran's Central Bank, by channeling payments for Iranian oil exports. Within weeks, the European Union followed suit, imposing sanctions on oil imports from Iran. These sanctions is to come into effect from July 1, 2012.

Source: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/12/CMD_IRANUS1211_CC.htmlSource: The Economist

Cont…


Sanctions on Iran Oil (cont…)


Iran has reacted by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf’s chokepoint through which a one-fourth of global production is shipped, if the embargo goes ahead. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would constitute, and be perceived by markets to presage, sharply heightened global geopolitical tension involving a much larger and unprecedented disruption.

Adding to the jumpiness in Tehran—and in Washington—are warlike rumblings coming from Israel. The chances of Israel launching a unilateral strike on Iran this year may be rising.

Iran has a proud record of resisting outside pressure and has dealt, albeit at some cost, with sanctions of one kind or another for over 30 years. It is also unclear how much greater pain the new sanctions will inflict on its already distorted economy. Iran will probably still be able to sell most of its oil to China and India at heavily discounted prices.

The appetite in the West for an strict oil embargo may be limited. Even if Saudi Arabia is willing to pump a lot more oil and Libyan production is recovering faster than expected, inventories remain tight and Asian demand will quickly eat into whatever spare capacity is left.

So the new sanctions are likelier to be incremental rather than dramatic in their impact on Iran. Cont…

Source: IMF/The Economist



The oil market impact of intensified concerns about an Iran-related oil supply shock (or an actual disruption) would be large, if not compensated by supply increases elsewhere.

Financial flow sanctions imposed by some OECD countries against Iran may be tantamount to an oil embargo and would imply supply declines of around 1.5 mbd, comparable with the average decline during major disruptions since the first oil shock and to the setbacks to Libyan production in 2011.

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would constitute, and be perceived by markets to presage, sharply heightened global geopolitical tension involving a much larger and unprecedented disruption.

A supply disruption would likely have a large effect on prices, not only reflecting relatively insensitive supply and demand in the short run but also the current state of oil market buffers.

In particular, OECD inventory buffers are below average due to tight oil market conditions through much of 2011, and excluding Iran, spare capacity of OPEC producers is close to the average of the past decade, at about 3.8 mbd (5.2 % of global crude oil production).

A halt of Iran’s exports to OECD economies without offset from other sources would likely trigger an initial oil price increase of around 20-30 % (about USD 20-30 a barrel currently), with other producers or emergency stock releases likely providing some offset over time.

A Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger a much larger price spike, including by limiting offsetting supplies from other producers in the region.

Sanctions on Iran Oil (Cont…)

Source: Global Economic Prospects and Policy Changes, Prepared by Staff of the International Monetary Fund

IMF VIEWS:


FINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS

Fitch Ratings 2012 Outlook: Sri Lankan Banks


Strong Credit Growth: Fitch Ratings expects the earnings of Sri Lankan banks to continue to benefit from strong lending prospects in the post-civil war period (since 2009). Real GDP is forecast by the agency to increase by 8% per annum in 2012, driving strong credit demand. Licensed commercial banks, accounting for about 45% of financial system assets, are in Fitch's view the best placed to meet this demand. The agency expects a policy response from the authorities to rein in credit demand should inflation increase.

Manageable Asset Quality: Fitch remains concerned about the Sri Lankan banking system's ability to manage a sustained level of above-average loan expansion. Sri Lanka's Macro Prudential Index (MPI) – an indicator of potential stress in the banking system – was revised to '3' (high) from '1' (low) in December 2011. The knock‐on effects of a still uncertain global economic environment could affect asset quality. However, the agency believes that asset quality may not immediately deteriorate to the levels reached in 2008 and 2009.

Sustained Healthy Profitability: Fitch expects net interest margins (NIMs) to continue to come under pressure due to intensifying competition. The agency believes that healthy profitability could continue to be delivered in 2012, supported by strong loan demand, manageable credit costs and reduced taxes.

Cont…


Fitch Ratings 2012 Outlook: Sri Lankan Banks (cont…)


Increased Non-Deposit Funding: Fitch believes that loans/deposits ratios (LDRs) will continue to increase to

85%-90%. The agency notes that heightened competition and diminishing liquidity are

being reflected in rising interest rates on deposits. Supported by their domestic franchises, deposits will remain the main

source of funding for Sri Lankan banks, although strong lending could result in a rising share of non-deposit funding.

Capital Planning Important: Fitch believes that the capital ratios of Sri Lankan banks could come under

pressure through continued strong credit growth. The agency recognises that capital conservation to maintain an adequate

buffer is important in light of loan growth levels, credit concentrations, the just adequate level of loan-loss reserve coverage and exposure to macroeconomic volatilities.


Sri Lanka SEC Allows more Broker Credit


According to the Sri Lanka's Securities and Exchange Commission it had allowed brokers to lend up to three times their net capital to clients to buy shares in a relaxation of credit rules imposed in 2011.

The adjusted net capital is arrived at after deducting from net capital 50 % of the value of fixed assets.

Earlier brokers were only allowed to lend only their own assets. The new rule allows them to leverage, effectively engaging in a finance business of borrowing and lending.

The SEC has stated that the new rule will increase the amount all brokers can lend to the market to Rs. 8.7 bn from the current Rs. 5.0 bn.


ANALYSIS & FORECAST

CBSL Projections for 2012


Indicators 2011(Est/Prov)

2012(Expectation)

Real GDP Growth (%) 8.3 8.0 Agriculture sector (%) 2.0 7.3 Industry sector (%) 10.1 9.0 Services sector (%) 8.6 7.7GDP (USD bn) 59.1 66.0

GDP per capita (USD) 2,830 3,129

Consumer Price Inflation (%) (Average) 6.7 5.5

Exports (USD bn) 10.5 12.5

Imports (USD bn) 20.0 23.4

Workers’ Remittances (USD bn) 5.2 6.5

Tourist Arrivals (‘000) 850 Over 1000

Earnings from Tourism (USD bn) 0.8 1.2

FDI (USD bn) 1.0 2.0

Government Inflows (USD bn) 2.7 2.5

Debt/GDP (%) 78 75

Public Investment/GDP (%) 6.0 6.6

Foreign Funds into Banks – Tier II Capital (USD bn) 0.1 1.0

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 7.0 6.2Source: CBSL, Road Map - Monetary & Financial Sector Policies for 2012 & Beyond


Swimming Against the Tide – How Feasible?


Since growth in Europe is virtually stagnant and the USA is making only a slow recovery, Sri Lanka’s export revenue may be adversely affected, particularly because USA and EU account for 56% of the country’s export earnings.

Further, the prevailing global uncertainty affects the country’s foreign investments too. As a result the country’s GDP growth is likely to be lesser in 2012 after recording an estimated growth of 8.3% in 2011.

There has been a rapid increase in credit to the private sector in recent times mainly due to lower interest rates. However, this has increased pressures on inflation and fuelled import demand, thereby contributing to widen the trade deficit (see figure 01).

Figure 01

Cont…


Swimming Against the Tide – How Feasible? (cont…)


The country’s trade deficit widened by 100.6% to record USD 7.7Bn for the first ten months of 2011 mainly due to an increase in imports and in particular higher expenditure incurred on intermediate and investment goods imports.

The widening trade and current account deficits have applied pressure on the rupee to depreciate. However, the CBSL has intervened to defend the rupee by selling dollars to keep the exchange rate under control. This has contributed to a tightening of rupee liquidity in the market, thereby applying upward pressure on interest

rates (see figure 02). In order to rectify the shortage in rupee liquidity in the market, the CBSL has resorted to purchasing government

securities, thereby injecting liquidity to the market (see figure 03).

Figure 03Figure 02

Cont…


Swimming Against the Tide – How Feasible? (cont…)


However, this process will have inflationary consequences with a time lag which will apply even greater pressure on the rupee and also on interest rates.

It is impossible to have a partially open capital account with a stable interest rate and an exchange rate peg.

Only two of these can be operated at the same time, while one of these will have to be given up to reflect the global and domestic market forces.

Figure 04

Sources: http://www.ft.lk/2012/01/11/dr-harsha-on-rupee-depreciation balance-of-payment-crisis-and-ongoing-tug-of-war/http://sundaytimes.lk/120101/BusinessTimes/bt08.html



The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.

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