Economic Context 1 NLA Conference Sep 2014 1
NLA Conference Sep 2014
London & UK economic indicators
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10 12
GDP Growth (%)
UK London
-1 -0.5
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3
Working Age Population Growth (%)
UK London
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
House Hold Disposable Income Growth (%)
UK London
• GDP growth long term average UK 2.5% vs London 3.1%
• Household disposable income long term
average UK 2.8% vs London 2.9%
• Working age population growth long term average UK 0.45% vs London 0.80%
• Between 2015 and 2018 we forecast that London will experience above trend growth across all of these indicators
2
Change in Occupier Profile 2 NLA Conference Sep 2014 3
4 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Central London take-up by Sector
2007
Professional services Service sector Banking and finance Associations Property and construction
2013
Professional services
Service sector
Banking and finance
Professional services Service sector Banking and finance Associations Property and construction Corporate TMT Public sector Unknown Retailer Insurance Serviced Offices
Professional Services, The Service Sector, Banking and Finance made up over 50% of deals in 2007
By 2013 their share of annual take-up had fallen to 33%. With the TMT sector now accounting for 30%
5 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Office vacancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
EC1 City
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Southbank take-up
More London, 2&3 Bankside The News Building, Sea Containers
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H1 2014
Take-up 5 year ave. Take-up million sq ft
Traditional Occupiers 3 NLA Conference Sep 2014 7
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Central London office deals
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size%
Sep$13' The'News'Building' SE1' News'Interna9onal' En9re'Building' 430,000'
Dec$13' One'London'Wall'Place' EC2' Schroders' En9re'Building' 310,000'
Aug$13' Sea'Containers'House' SE1' Ogilvy'&'Mather'Limited' En9re'Building' 226,000'
Jul$14' 25'Churchill'Place' E14' EY' 14th'to'21st' 205,000'
Jul$14' Two'New'Ludgate' EC4' Mizuho'Bank' En9re'Building' 198,000'
Jul$13' Cannon'Place' EC4' CMS' '1st,'2nd,'3rd' 140,000'
Feb$14' 8$10'Moorgate' EC2' ING'Bank' En9re'Building' 120,000'
Growing Occupiers 4 NLA Conference Sep 2014 9
10 NLA Conference Sep 2014
The growth of the TMT & serviced office sectors
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TMT Serviced Office Percentage of Central London take-up
11 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Amazon London office deals
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%Occupa7on?%
Mar$12' The'Glasshouse' EC1' Amazon'(Push'BuYon)' En9re'Building' 47,560' First'Move' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%Occupa7on?%
Mar$12' The'Glasshouse' EC1' Amazon'(Push'BuYon)' En9re'Building' 47,560' First'Move' Yes'
May$13% Sixty'London' EC1' Amazon' En9re'Building' 212,995' Expansion' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%Occupa7on?%
Mar$12' The'Glasshouse' EC1' Amazon'(Push'BuYon)' En9re'Building' 47,560' First'Move' Yes'
May$13% Sixty'London' EC1' Amazon' En9re'Building' 212,995' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$14% Leadenhall'Court' EC1' Amazon' En9re'Building' 86,200' Overflow'Space' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%Occupa7on?%
Mar$12' The'Glasshouse' EC1' Amazon'(Push'BuYon)' En9re'Building' 47,560' First'Move' Yes'
May$13% Sixty'London' EC1' Amazon' En9re'Building' 212,995' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$14% Leadenhall'Court' EC1' Amazon' En9re'Building' 86,200' Overflow'Space' Yes'
Sep$14' Principal'Place' EC2' Amazon'Whole'office'space'
430,000' Consolida9on' Pre$let'
12 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Google London office deals Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%
S7ll%in%Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Aug$10' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google' 3rd' 41,465' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$11' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google'Part'1st'
(1st)'37,442'(45,058)'
Expansion' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Aug$10' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google' 3rd' 41,465' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$11' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google'Part'1st'
(1st)'37,442'(45,058)'
Expansion' Yes'
May$11' Central'St'Giles' WC2' Google' 3rd'to'6th'+'9th' 157,562' Expansion' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Aug$10' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google' 3rd' 41,465' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$11' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google'Part'1st'
(1st)'37,442'(45,058)'
Expansion' Yes'
May$11' Central'St'Giles' WC2' Google' 3rd'to'6th'+'9th' 157,562' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$11% 4$5'Bonhill'Street'(Google'Campus)' EC2'Google'Campus'
En9re'Building' 24,883' Expansion' Yes'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Aug$10' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google' 3rd' 41,465' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$11' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google'Part'1st'
(1st)'37,442'(45,058)'
Expansion' Yes'
May$11' Central'St'Giles' WC2' Google' 3rd'to'6th'+'9th' 157,562' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$11% 4$5'Bonhill'Street'(Google'Campus)' EC2'Google'Campus'
En9re'Building' 24,883' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$13% Kings'Cross'Central'(Dev'Site)' N1C' Google' Proposed'HQ'site' 800,000' Consolida9on' Site'Purchase'
Date% Address% Postcode% Tenant% Floor% Size% Type%of%Space%S7ll%in%
Occupa7on?%
May$03' The'Courtyard,'SuYon'Row' W1' Google' 3rd,'4th,'5th'' 14,595' First'Move' No'
Aug$05'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'4th'and'5th' 52,525' Expansion' Yes'
Jun$06'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,000' Expansion' Yes'
Nov$07'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,317' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$08'Belgrave'House,'76'Buckingham'Palace'Road'
SW1' Google' Part'3rd' 10,300' Expansion' Yes'
Aug$10' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google' 3rd' 41,465' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$11' 123'Buckingham'Palace'Road' SW1' Google'Part'1st'
(1st)'37,442'(45,058)'
Expansion' Yes'
May$11' Central'St'Giles' WC2' Google' 3rd'to'6th'+'9th' 157,562' Expansion' Yes'
Sep$11% 4$5'Bonhill'Street'(Google'Campus)' EC2'Google'Campus'
En9re'Building' 24,883' Expansion' Yes'
Mar$13% Kings'Cross'Central'(Dev'Site)' N1C' Google' Proposed'HQ'site' 800,000' Consolida9on' Site'Purchase'
Feb$14' 6'Pancras'Square' N1C' Google' Upper'Half' 163,477' Interim'Space?' Pre$let'
Changing Landscape 5 NLA Conference Sep 2014 13
14 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Central London prime rents by sub market
2010 2014 Growth King's Cross £37.50 £68.50 83% Soho £52.50 £82.50 57% St James’s/Mayfair £90.00 £120.00 33% City Fringe £40.00 £52.50 31% City Core £53.50 £62.50 17%
2010 2014 King's Cross £37.50 £68.50 Soho £52.50 £82.50 St James’s/Mayfair £90.00 £120.00 City Fringe £40.00 £52.50 City Core £53.50 £62.50
Market 2010 King's Cross £37.50 Soho £52.50 St James’s/Mayfair £90.00 City Fringe £40.00 City Core £53.50
15 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Right mix of space?
16 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Something different
Alphabeta
Buckley building
17 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Mixed use / Critical mass
King’s Cross Central The International Quarter
18 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Fit for purpose
Upper Bank Street
10 Aldermanbury
125 London Wall
19 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Iconic / Luxurious
The Shard
10 New Burlington Street
The Future? 6 NLA Conference Sep 2014 20
21 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Challenges
22 NLA Conference Sep 2014
Opportunities