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Economic Decision Making
Ulrich and Eppinger Chapter 15
Deiter & Schmidt Chapter 18http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0072837039/595507/Chapter18Corr06_09.pdf
Adapted from Dr. Stamper
PlanningPlanning
Product Development Process
ConceptDevelopment
ConceptDevelopment
System-LevelDesign
System-LevelDesign
DetailDesign
DetailDesign
Testing andRefinement
Testing andRefinement
ProductionRamp-Up
ProductionRamp-Up
Concept Development Process
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
Build and Test Models and Prototypes
IdentifyCustomerNeeds
EstablishTargetSpecifications
GenerateProductConcepts
SelectProductConcept(s)
Set FinalSpecifications
PlanDownstreamDevelopment
MissionStatement Test
ProductConcept(s)
DevelopmentPlan
Overview• Monday: (Dieter, Chap 18 and Ulrich, Chap 15 Appendix)
• Time Value of Money, Cash Flow Diagrams, Net Present Value, Depreciation
• Thursday• Economic Analysis Process for Product Development (Ulrich Chap
15)• Profitability
• Monday• More analysis
• Wednesday:• Lab exercises
Objectives
• Learn some of the language of the business community
• Provide techniques to evaluate the financial attractiveness of various alternatives that are presented to engineers
• Apply the economic evaluation techniques to personal and professional decisions
Time Value of Money
Proposition:• The value of money changes over time: generally
$1 in the future is worth less than $1 now
Evidence:• Organizations are willing to borrow money in the
present and then return more than what they borrowed at some point in the future (renting money).
Example 1: Simple Interest Future Value
• Assume:– Invest $100 now (P=$100)– At 8% annual interest rate (i=8%=0.08)– A single 1 year period (n=1)
• Find: Future Value (F)– F = (1+i)P = (1+0.08)100= $108
Example 2: Simple Interest Present Value
• Assume:– Desire a future payout of $100 (F=$100)– At 8% annual interest/discount rate (i=8%=0.08)– After a single 1 year period (n=1)
• Find: Present value to give F=$100– Same equation: F = (1+i)P, but solve for P– P=F/(1+i) = $100/(1+0.08)= $92.59
Example 3: Compound Interest Future Value
• Assume:– Invest $100 now (P=$100)– At 8% annual interest rate (i=8%=0.08)– For a 3 year period (n=3)
• Find: Future Value (F)– Fafter 1 year = (1+i)P = (1+0.08)100= $108
– Fafter 2 years = (1+i)(1+i)P = (1+0.08)(1+0.08)100= $116.64
– Fafter 3 years = (1+i)(1+i)(1+i)P = $125.97
Example 4: Compound Interest Present Value
• Assume:– Desire a future payout of $100 (F=$100)– At 8% annual interest rate (i=8%=0.08)– After a 3 year period (n=3)
• Find: Present value to give F=$100– Same equation: F = (1+i)(1+i)(1+i)P, but solve for P– P=$100/[(1+0.08)(1+0.08)(1+0.08)]= $79.38
General Equations for Compound Interest• Future Value:
• Present Value:
• Where:– F is future value– P is present value– i is interest rate (or discount rate)– n is number of periods
How Do We Compare Alternatives?(Economic Decision Making)
• We need some form of “equivalence”• Present Value and Future Value can provide
that equivalence
Cash Flow Diagrams & Net Present Value
Page 867 Dieter and Schmidthttp://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0072837039/595507/Chapter18Corr06_09.pdf
Note the cash flow diagram. • Incomes point into the line• Expenses point away from the
line• Time starts in year 0 (start of year
1)• All other flows are at the end of
the year
Net Present Value of the Costs of Machine APresent Value of Year 0 Costs:
– $25,000
Present Value of Year 1 Costs:– (2000-500)/(1+0.10)^1= $1363.63
Present Value of Year 2 Costs:– (2000-500)/(1+0.10)^2= $1239.67
Present Value of Year 3 Costs:– (2000-500)/(1+0.10)^3= $1126.97
Present Value of Year 4 Costs:– (2000-500)/(1+0.10)^4= $1024.52
Present Value of Year 5 Costs:– (2000-500-3000)/(1+0.10)^5= -$931.38
Net Present Value of the Costs:
25,000+1363.63+1239.67+1126.97+1024.52 -931.38$ 28,823
Does it make sense that the PV of year 0 is the same as year 0?
Does it make sense that the PV of each year is decreasing with time?
Why is the PV of Year 5 negative?
Interest
Number of periods Payments Made Each Period
Future Value
Using Excel for Year 3:
Present Value of Year 3 Costs:(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^3= $1126.97
Why is the value red ?
Interest
Number of periods
Payments (Costs) for Each Period
Additional Future Value
Using Excel to find the presentValue for the 5 years of $1500 costs each year:
Present Value of the 5 years:(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^1= $1363.63(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^2= $1239.67(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^3= $1126.97(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^4= $1024.52(2000-500)/(1+0.10)^5= $ 931.38
$ 5686
0 if Payments (Costs)made at end of period
Alternatively we can use the NPV (Net Present Value) function in Excel to capture values of each year for this cash flow diagram.
Why do we have to account for year 0 separately?
Net Present Value of the Costs of Machine BPresent Value of Year 0 Costs:
• $15,000
Present Value of Year 1 Costs:• (4000)/(1+0.10)^1= $3636.36
Present Value of Year 2 Costs:• (4000)/(1+0.10)^2= $3305.79
Present Value of Year 3 Costs:• (4000+3500)/(1+0.10)^3= $5634.86
Present Value of Year 4 Costs:• (4000)/(1+0.10)^4= $2732.05
Present Value of Year 3 Costs:• (4000)/(1+0.10)^5= $2483.69
Net Present Value of the Costs:
15,000+3636.36+3305.79+5634.86+2732.05 +2483.69$ 32,793
Net Present Value Comparison
• NPV Costmachine A = $28,823
• NPV Costmachine B = $32,793
• Costmachine A unadjusted = $29,500
• Costmachine B unadjusted = $38,500
In-Class Exercise: 1For Example 18.3 of Dieter and Schmidt we showed in how the
Present Value (PV) and Net Present Value (NPV) functions in Excel could be used to calculate the Present Value of the costs of Machine A. Create an Excel spreadsheet that shows the annual costs and calculates the Present Value of the costs of Machine B in example 18.3.
Do two separate calculations, the first which uses the PV function, and the second which uses the NPV function.
Raise your hand when you have finished so that you can check your answer with your instructor.
Economic Metrics to Evaluate Projects
• Return on Investment (ROI)• Payback period
Return on Investment (ROI)
• Often given as a ratio of some desired economic outcome to the investment for that outcome.
• Typical numerators:– Annual profit before taxes– Annual profit after taxes– Annual cash flow before taxes– Annual cash flow after taxes
• Typical denominator: capital investment
ROI example:
• ROI = benefit/ cost = (gains-cost)/cost• Buying 100 shares of Arcelor Mittal stock at $18 per
share would cost $1800.• If you later sold those shares for $2000, your gains
minus cost would be $200.• The resulting ROI (ratio of benefit to investment) is
$200/$1800 or 11.1%• Note that time value of money is not considered.• What is your ROI for attending Rose-Hulman?• How would you use that information?
Payback Period
• Typical definition: Ratio of the investment to the annual benefit… giving an estimate of the time to recover the investment
• If benefits are not uniform over time… it is the time at which the cumulative sum of the benefits equal the investment
• Typically does not take into account the time-value of money
Payback Period Example
• Suppose you buy a Mini-Donut maker for $8000 and set it up for your neighborhood’s biannual garage sale. After expenses for dough and grease, you make $500 per year.
• What is the Payback Period?• Looks like 16 years before you have recouped
the initial cost. Once again, we have ignored the time value of money.
What is the Payback Period and 10 year ROI for your Rose Education?
• Payback: Assume $50,000 annual cost for Tuition, Room and Board, etc. and opportunity cost of $16,000 for the lost job at McDonalds.
• Assume annual salary after graduation of $60,000. (Note that the delta due to Rose is $60,000-$16,000 or $44,000)
• Evaluate ROI as a percentage.
Rose Payback
• Total cost over 4 years is $66,000*4=$264K• Total annual benefit is $44,000• It will take 6 years to pay back the cost of
education at Rose.• How is this information helpful for decision
making?
10 Year Rose ROI
• Total cost is $264K• Total 10 year benefit is $44,000*6=$264K• ROI is $264/$264=1• You could view this as a 100% ROI
Homework Problem #7
• Honda Civic– Hybrid vs. Conventional
Homework #5
• Publishers Clearinghouse v. Megamillions• Sketch cash flow diagram for PC• Determine PV
Depreciation and Taxes
• Since the capital used to produce goods, services, and energy declines in value over time, tax law currently allows the owners of capital equipment to reduce their taxes each year to reflect that declining value.
Types of Expenditures
• Capital– Funds used to purchase facilities and equipment
that are useful for more than 1 year– These purchases are “capitalized”
• Expense– Funds used to purchase consumables (e.g. labor,
material, utilities)– These purchases are “expensed”
The categorization of expenditures has important tax implications
Depreciation of Capital Assets• Accounting systems assume that capital
equipment (not land) loses value over time• The loss of value of capital equipment is called
depreciation• Depreciation is important in the economic
analysis of engineering projects because depreciation can be used to reduce the taxes that are paid on corporate income
Taxes and Depreciation
• The amount of tax a company pays is calculated by multiplying the corporate tax rate (approximately 35% for many companies) by the company’s taxable income
• Where:– income = revenues – costs– taxable income = revenues – costs - depreciation
Example Cash Flow with Tax and Depreciation
From Dieter and Schmidt
Calculating Depreciation
• Step 1: determine the period over which the capital asset should be depreciated.
• Step 2: determine how the depreciating value should be distributed over the selected period
Determining the Period of Depreciation
• See your business office for accounting rules• Examples:
– Computers, trucks: 5 years– Office furniture, railroad track, Ag buildings: 7 years– Durable goods manufacturing equipment: 10 years– Sewage treatment plant: 15 years
What do you expect the time frame to be for a wind turbine?
Determining the Distribution• Straight line depreciation• Declining balance depreciation• Sum–of–years-digits depreciation
Straight-Line Depreciation
Initial Cost
Salvage Value Periods
Declining Balance Depreciation
Initial Cost Salvage Value
Total Number of Periods
Period for which depreciationIs being calculated
Depreciation in the jth year
Sum-of-Years-Digits Depreciation
Initial Cost
Salvage ValueTotal Number of Periods
Period for which depreciationIs being calculated
Repaying a Loan
• Generally you will make a down payment and annual payments.
• The down payment occurs in year 0.• The amount of the loan is the cost of the
purchase minus the down payment• The payment of the loan is easily found using
Excel
Using the PMT Function to find Payments on a Loan
Principal
Number of Periods30 years*12 months
Monthly Interest rateAnnual rate/12
Machine ComparisonYou are concerned with the purchase of a heat-treating furnace for gas carburizing
of steel parts. Furnace A will cost $325,000 and will last 10 years; furnace B will cost $400,000
and will also last 10 years. However, furnace B will provide closer control on case depth, which means that the
heat treater can shoot for the low side of the specification range on case depth. This will mean that the production rate for furnace B will be 2740 lb/hr compared
with 2300 lb/hr for furnace A. Total yearly production is required to be 15,400,000 lb. The cycle time for furnace
A is 16.5 hr and that for furnace B is 13.8 hr. The hourly operating cost is $64.50 per hr.
Assume that money is worth 10% and the tax rate is 50%. Also use straight line depreciation.
How might you compare the two alternatives?
Production RateYearly Required Operating Yearly Depreciation
Production (lb) hours Cost ($/hr) Oper Cost ($) $Furnace A 2300lb/hr 15400000 6696 64.5 431870 32500 Furnace B 2740lb/hr 5620 362518 40000
B-A -69351 7500 Interest Rate 0.1
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Initial
Cost
Furnace A 325,000
Furnace B 400,000
Net Difference
B-A -75,000 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101 73101
PV $75,000 (66,456) (60,414) (54,922) (49,929) (45,390) (41,264) (37,513) (34,102) (31,002) (28,184)
Sum ($374,176)
B cost $75,000 more than A
B saves $69,351 in operating costs
B saves $3,750 in taxes
Let’s compare with NPV
First organize the info
Next, draw a Cash Flow Diagram
Check the NPV
Chapter 15: Product Development Economics
Product Design and DevelopmentFourth Edition
by Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger
Economic Analysis for Product Development
(Ulrich and Eppinger)
1. Build a base-case financial model2. Perform a sensitivity analysis3. Use sensitivity analysis to understand project
trade-offs4. Consider the influence of qualitative factors
on project success
Step 1: Build a Base-Case Model
Step 1: Build a Base-Case Model
Annual interest divided by number of periods per year
Number of periods
Payments Made Each Period
Future Value
Using Excel for Q4 of Year 1:
Present Value of Year 3 Costs:(-2250)/(1+0.10/4)^3= -$2089
Homework Problem #2a
2. a. Use Excel to find the NPV for a drug eluting Cardiac Stent project: • Years 1-4 development: $70M/year • Years 4-8 FDA testing, IP costs, manufacturing ramp up: $ 110 • M/year • Year 10 until expiration of patent
– Volume: 600,000 units / year – Revenue: $2500 / unit – Costs: $1200 / unit
• Patent issues at start of year 8 and is enforceable for 17 years • Cost of money is 5%
Step 2: Perform Sensitivity Analysis(e.g. 20% decrease in development costs)
Step 2: Perform Sensitivity Analysis(e.g. 25% increase in development time)
Step 2: Perform Sensitivity Analysis
Ulrich & Eppinger, “Product Design and Development”
Step 3: Use Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Project Trade-offs
Step 3: Use Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Project Trade-offs
(estimate Trade-off Rules from sensitivity analyses)
Ulrich & Eppinger, “Product Design and Development”
Homework #2b. a. Use Excel to find the NPV for a drug eluting Cardiac Stent project:
• Years 1-4 development: $70M/year • Years 4-8 FDA testing, IP costs, manufacturing ramp up: $ 110 • M/year • Year 10 until expiration of patent
– Volume: 600,000 units / year – Revenue: $2500 / unit – Costs: $1200 / unit
• Patent issues at start of year 8 and is enforceable for 17 years • Cost of money is 5%
b. Find the NPV if the FDA testing takes twice as long as planned (still at $110M/year)
A Question:
What are some situations when you might not pursue an option that presents the best NPV?
Step 4: Consider the Influence of Qualitative Factors
Ulrich & Eppinger, “Product Design and Development”
• Interactions between the Project and the Firm (e.g. strategic fit, risk/liability exposure)
• Interactions between the Project and the Market (e.g. competitors, customers, suppliers)
• Interactions between the Project and the Macro Environment (e.g. economic shifts, government regulations, social trends)
Modeling Uncertain Cash Flows
Dealing With Risk
Probability that the Patent is allowed
NPV= Pa*PVa + Pb*PVb = 0.6($6.5 million) + 0.4($1.5 million) = $4.5 million
Determining NPV with probabilities.
NPV with market testing is $2,650,000
HW Problem 2c
2. a. Use Excel to find the NPV for a drug eluting Cardiac Stent project: • Years 1-4 development: $70M/year • Years 4-8 FDA testing, IP costs, manufacturing ramp up: $ 110 • M/year • Year 10 until expiration of patent
– Volume: 600,000 units / year – Revenue: $2500 / unit – Costs: $1200 / unit
• Patent issues at start of year 8 and is enforceable for 17 years • Cost of money is 5%
b. Find the NPV if the FDA testing takes twice as long as planned (still at $110M/year) c. For the original case, determine the NPV if there is a 5% probability that there is no FDA approval, a 10%
probability of 1.5B intellectual property settlement in year 14, and a 85% probability of business as predicted.
Economics Laboratory
Apply the tools of economic decision making to a large capital project and
a personal project