Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO)

Dr. Silvia Stiller

Brussels25th June 2013

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 2

Agenda

▪Demographic and economic perspectives

▪Trade and Transportation

▪Fields of action

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KEO: 6 Polish voivodships, 7 German Federal States, region of Lüneburg, 2 Czech districts (kray), Prague

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KEO in Europe

37.6 m inhabitants (EU: 502.5 m): 7,5 % of EU population

155.5 inhabitants per km² (EU: 116.4 per km²)

Unemployment rate 9.8 % (EU: 9.6 %)

Employment rate 50.6 % (EU: 53.5 %)

GDP: 720 Mrd. : 5,7 of EU GDP

GDP per capita 19,028 Euro (EU: 25,100 Euro) (as of 2008)

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KEO in Europe: Cross border integration area

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Sectoral structure

Large dispairites within the KEO region

different specialisation patterns: trade potential

For the future a process of structural convergences can be expected; i.e. structural patterns become more similar

Overall trend: Knowledge based structural change

Expansion of service sectors, but services and industries are closely related

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Sectoral structure

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Sectoral structure

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Preconditions for structural change

Crucial role of qualified person

Investments in research and development as driving forces for structural change and economic growth

Different starting points as to innovation potential

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Innovation potential

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Income

large income gaps per person between the regions of KEO

German regions and Praha have highest income per capita

Relatively low per capita income in Polish regions

Catching up processes which are expected to go on in the future

But: spatial polarisation, especially between cities and rural areas, might be fostered

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Per capita income

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Catching up process, reduction of income disparities

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Demographic perspectives 2030

overall European trend: ageing and shrinking population

population decline by 6.4% until 2030 in KEO region

rural areas lose population

cities are attractive to immigrants

population decrease influences labour supply and economic potential

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Population forecast until 2030*

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Trade and transportation

Trade between Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic has developed very dynamically during last decades

GDP growth as driving force for cross border trade

Essential factor: cross border infrastructure and transaction

Trade volume as crucial determinant for traffic in KEO region; trade form KEO members will increase and impact on traffic; high demand

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Trade expansion

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Trade and freight traffic, modal split 2009

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Trade and freight traffic, modal split 2009

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GDP rises in all three countries: In Poland by 93.8 %, Czech Republic 59.3 %, Germany 32.9 (HWWI forecast)

Export growth for Poland and the Czech Republic of 201.4 % or else 146.5 %

• Export growth for Germany of 92.7 %

• Ports as centres of international trade

Trade perspectives 2030

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Port locations in the KEO

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Port locations

Hamburg harbour is one of the biggest European ports and cargo handling develops – like in other regions - very dynamically

Port of Gdansk, outside the region, also trade centre for KEO members

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Ports and road network

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Port locations and accessibilty:Hinterland connections and transport routes

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hinterland connections are competition factors

infrastructural bottlenecks in the hinterland

perspectives of intermodal traffic

heterogenous density of transport routes

regional variation of navigability of inland waterways

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Fields of action

Supporting knowledge-based structural change

Invesments in research and development, education

Cross-border networ

Ongoing integration of KEO in cross-border international division of labour

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Fields of action

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Crucial factors for more intense integration and higher benefits of cross-border relationships

Reduction of transaction cost Expanding transport

infrastructure; specific needs of urban centres

Strengthen potentials of inland waterway transport

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Commissioned by: With kind support of:

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Contact

Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)

Dr. Silvia Stiller

stiller@hwwi.org

Dr. Jan Wedemeier

wedemeier@hwwi.org

www.hwwi.org

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