Date post: | 17-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | charleen-oliver |
View: | 213 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Economic Governance & Social Challenges
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
Conférence interparlementaire sur la stabilité, la coordination économique et la gouvernance
au sein de l'UE (SCEG)Louis Chauvel
University of LuxembourgInstitute for Research on Socio-Economic Inequality (IRSEI)
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance
• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations (…for the
debate…)• Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas
2
Yesterday EU6 socioeconomic goals
• Maintain peace, enhance democracy • Share common EU values and goals• Promote a European affluent economy • Form a middle-class society • Build sustainable Welfare regimes • Develop wellbeing
3
TODAY: ACCUMULATION OF CONSTRAINTS AND COMPLEX SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATIONS
Introduction: a short check-list for good Socio-Economic Governance
• Correctly identify of problems • Have a consensus majority to share the diagnosis• Have a consensus majority to share the same goals • Build precise tools to act on well identified targets • Maintain excellence in public management
• …Think about responsibility (future generations will accept todays decisions)
4
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance
• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations • Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas
5
The European Union
Population constraints
Population pyramids for Germany in 1956, 2006, and 2050 (pop in 100.000)Horizontal bars are proportional to number of men (blue) and women (red). Roughly constant total fertility rate of 1·4, yearly net migration of 100 000 and life expectancy in 2050 reaching 83·5 years for men and 88·0 years for women. Ageing populations: the challenges ahead The Lancet, Volume 374, Issue 9696, Pages 1196-1208Kaare Christensen, Gabriele Doblhammer, Roland Rau, James W Vaupel
2050
The European Union
Share of World’s Population Angus Maddison 2008 / OECD database
2030
U.S.+CA
Europe West 30
Population constraints
7
Deep blue: less than 15yo are > 18%Light yellow: less than 15yo are < 14% Benjamin Henning
8
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance
• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations • Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas
9
Logged real per cap income distribution 1960-2010 Source: SWIID + PWT
Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
Popula
tion d
ensi
ty
CHINA
Europe+Japan
“REST”
U.S.
10
The European Union
Logged real per cap income distribution 1960-2010 Source: SWIID + PWT
2030
U.S.+CA
Europe West 30
Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
Popula
tion d
ensi
ty
CHINA
Europe+Japan
“REST”
U.S.
11
1960
The European Union
Logged real per cap income distribution 1960-2010 Source: SWIID + PWT
2030
U.S.+CA
Europe West 30
Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
Popula
tion d
ensi
ty
CHINA
Europe+Japan
“REST”
U.S.
12
2010
The European Union
Population constraints
GDP per capita gdppcap (Purchasing Power Parity) / World’s average of gdpcapAngus Maddison / OECD database until 2008
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
13
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance
• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations • Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas
14
The European Union
Population constraints
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
15
arm
arg
aut
aus
brb
bel
bgr
bolbra
btn
blr
can
che
chl
chn
col
cri
cyp
cze
deu
dnk
domecu
estesp
fin
fra
gbr
geo
grc
gtm
hkg
hnd
hrv
hun
idn
irl
isr
ind
irn
isl
ita
jor
jpnkor
kaz
lka
ltu
lux
lva
mda
mkd
mng
mlt
mdv
mex
mys
nam
nldnor
nzl
panper
phl
pol
prt
pry
rus
swe
sgp
svnsvk
tha
tuntur
ukr
usa
ury
ven
vnm
zaf
zwe
20
30
40
50
60
gin
i
8 9 10 11lrgdpe
INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010
Penn World Tables 2011 & SWIID inequality database
The European Union
Population constraints
GDP per capita gdppcap (Purchasing Power Parity) / World’s average of gdpcapAngus Maddison / OECD database until 2008
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
16
arm
arg
aut
aus
brb
bel
bgr
bolbra
btn
blr
can
che
chl
chn
col
cri
cyp
cze
deu
dnk
domecu
estesp
fin
fra
gbr
geo
grc
gtm
hkg
hnd
hrv
hun
idn
irl
isr
ind
irn
isl
ita
jor
jpnkor
kaz
lka
ltu
lux
lva
mda
mkd
mng
mlt
mdv
mex
mys
nam
nldnor
nzl
panper
phl
pol
prt
pry
rus
swe
sgp
svnsvk
tha
tuntur
ukr
usa
ury
ven
vnm
zaf
zwe
20
30
40
50
60
gin
i
8 9 10 11lrgdpe
INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010
EU-6
Penn World Tables 2011 & SWIID inequality database
The European Union
Population constraints
GDP per capita gdppcap (Purchasing Power Parity) / World’s average of gdpcapAngus Maddison / OECD database until 2008
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
17
arm
arg
aut
aus
brb
bel
bgr
bolbra
btn
blr
can
che
chl
chn
col
cri
cyp
cze
deu
dnk
domecu
estesp
fin
fra
gbr
geo
grc
gtm
hkg
hnd
hrv
hun
idn
irl
isr
ind
irn
isl
ita
jor
jpnkor
kaz
lka
ltu
lux
lva
mda
mkd
mng
mlt
mdv
mex
mys
nam
nldnor
nzl
panper
phl
pol
prt
pry
rus
swe
sgp
svnsvk
tha
tuntur
ukr
usa
ury
ven
vnm
zaf
zwe
20
30
40
50
60
gin
i
8 9 10 11lrgdpe
INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010
EU-12
Penn World Tables 2011 & SWIID inequality database
The European Union
Population constraints
GDP per capita gdppcap (Purchasing Power Parity) / World’s average of gdpcapAngus Maddison / OECD database until 2008
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
18
arm
arg
aut
aus
brb
bel
bgr
bolbra
btn
blr
can
che
chl
chn
col
cri
cyp
cze
deu
dnk
domecu
estesp
fin
fra
gbr
geo
grc
gtm
hkg
hnd
hrv
hun
idn
irl
isr
ind
irn
isl
ita
jor
jpnkor
kaz
lka
ltu
lux
lva
mda
mkd
mng
mlt
mdv
mex
mys
nam
nldnor
nzl
panper
phl
pol
prt
pry
rus
swe
sgp
svnsvk
tha
tuntur
ukr
usa
ury
ven
vnm
zaf
zwe
20
30
40
50
60
gin
i
8 9 10 11lrgdpe
INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010
EU-28
Penn World Tables 2011 & SWIID inequality database
The European Union
Population constraints
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
19
INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010
EU-28
AT11
BE11
BG11
CH11
CY11
CZ11
DE11
DK11
EE11
EL11 ES11
FI11
FR11
HR11
HU11
IE11
IS11
IT11
LT11
LU11
LV11
MT11
NL11
NO11
PL11
PT11
RO11
SE11SI11
SK11
UK11
.24
.26
.28
.3.3
2.3
4(m
ean)
gin
i
0 10000 20000 30000 40000(mean) rev
INCOME per CUPer consumption unit eur2011 income
INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME
2011
EU-SILC 2011 survey microdata
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance
• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations • Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas
20
The European Union
Population constraints
Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011
bg
dees
jp
po
us
12
34
5g
dp
pca
p
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year
U.S.
Japan
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Bulgaria
21
02
0000
400
006
0000
800
00in
c/eu
ros
EU28
EU15 EU6Level of living
Income and inequality from EU-6 to EU-28
22Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011
22
average level of living (K-euros)
Gini Index
National and European poverty rates in EU-6
23Poverty = below 60% of the mean / Eurostat Silc-2011
23
average level of living (K-euros)
Gini Index
BE11DE11
FR11
IT11
LU11
NL11
.16
.18
.2.2
2.2
4.2
6(m
ean
) p
oor
0 .1 .2 .3 .4(mean) poe
R-square = 50%
European poverty rate
National poverty rate
National and European poverty rates in EU-28
24Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011
24
average level of living (K-euros)
Gini Index
AT11BE11
BG11
CY11
CZ11
DE11
DK11
EE11
EL11
ES11
FI11
FR11
HU11
IE11
IT11
LT11
LU11
LV11
MT11
NL11
PL11
PT11
RO11
SE11
SI11 SK11
UK11
.15
.2.2
5.3
(me
an)
poo
r
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1(mean) poe
R-square = 10%
Todays EU socioeconomic challenges
• Maintain peace, enhance democracy => OK• Share common EU values and goals => HOW• Promote a European affluent economy => ?• Form a middle-class society => ?• Build sustainable Welfare regimes => ? • Develop wellbeing => ?
25
Back to a short check-list for good Socio-Economic Governance
• Correctly identify of problems => shared realities?• Have a consensus majority to share the diagnosis• Have a consensus majority to share the same goals • Build precise tools to act on well identified targets • Maintain excellence in public management
26
Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability
Enlargement was vital for the future of the EU • New agenda for the EU (10 years after)• Reflection on the new goals • Real integration of the new members• Convergence is not spontaneous generation • Time for deepening / strengthening
27
The Malthus’ Nightmare (2nd edit 1803)“A man who is born into a world already possessed, if he cannot get
subsistence from his parents on whom he has just demand, and if the society do not want his labour, has no claim of right to the smallest portion of food, and, in fact, has no business to be where he is. At nature’s mighty feast there is no vacant cover for him. She tells him to be gone, and will quickly execute her own orders, if he do not work upon the compassion of some of her guests. If these guests get up and make room for him, other intruders immediately appear demanding the same favour. The report of a provision for all that come fills the hall with numerous claimants. The order and harmony of the feast is disturbed, the plenty that before reigned is changed into scarcity ; and the happiness of the guests is destroyed by the spectacle of misery and dependence in every part of the hall, and by the clamorous importunity of those who are justly enraged at not finding the provision which they had been taught to expect. The guests learnt too late their error, in counteracting those strict orders to all intruders, issued by the great mistress of the feast, who, wishing that all her guests should have plenty, and knowing that she could not provide for unlimited numbers, humanely refused to admit fresh comers when her table was already full”
28
The Hans Jonas’ light (1979)
“Act so that the effects of your action are compatible with the permanence of genuine human life”;
or expressed negatively: “Act so that the effects of your action are not destructive of the future possibility of such life”
29
The Imperative of Responsibility (Das Prinzip Verantwortung) Hans Jonas (1979). (University of Chicago Press)
Thank you!