ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT PROPOSED REDEVELOPMENT of THIRROUL PLAZA SHOPPING CENTRE ·...

ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT~

PROPOSED REDEVELOPMENTof

THIRROUL PLAZA SHOPPING CENTRE

Prepared For:

THIRROUL PLAZA PTY LTD

Prepared By:LEYSHON CONSULTING PTY LTD

SUITE 1106 LEVEL 11109 PITT STREET

SYDNEY NSW 2000

TELEPHONE (02) 9224-6111FACSIMILE (02) 9224-6150

REP 1917December 2019

© Leyshon Consulting Pty Ltd 2019

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TABLE of CONTENTSPage

DISCLAIMER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i-vi

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 Development Proposal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 Report Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2 RETAIL CONTEXT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.2 Existing Centre Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3 DEMAND ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.1 Trade Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.2 Trade Area Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Age Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Family Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

3.3 Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.4 Available Retail Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.5 Demand for Additional Retail Floorspace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

4 RETAIL IMPACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.2 Existing and Projected Centre Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.3 Estimated Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174.4 Implications of Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184.5 Other Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

5 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

APPENDIX A: PROPOSED REDEVELOPMENT PLANS – THIRROUL PLAZA

Economic Impact Assessment ~Proposed Redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza Shopping Centre

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LIST of TABLES

1.1 : THIRROUL PLAZA – EXISTING and PROPOSED RETAIL FLOORSPACE

2.1 : EXISTING MAJOR CENTRES – WOLLONGONG NORTHERN BEACHES

AREA, 2019

3.1 : SELECTED KEY DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS – THIRROUL

TRADE AREA and WOLLONGONG LGA, 2016 (% Population)

3.2 : ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION for SELECTED STATISTICAL

AREAS (SA2s), 2011-18 (No. Persons)

3.3 : PROJECTED POPULATION – THIRROUL TRADE AREA, 2016-26 (No.

Persons)

3.4 : ESTIMATED AVAILABLE RETAIL SPENDING – THIRROUL TRADE

AREA, 2018-26 ($2019)

4.1 : ESTIMATED EXISTING and FUTURE SALES – THIRROUL PLAZA 2019

& 2021

4.2 : ESTIMATED IMPACT of THIRROUL PLAZA REDEVELOPMENT, 2021($2019)

LIST of FIGURES

3.1 : THIRROUL TRADE AREA


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DISCLAIMER

This Report has been prepared solely for the purposes recorded at Section 1 of theReport and solely for the benefit of the party to whom the report is addressed. No thirdparty is entitled to rely upon this Report for any purpose without the written consent ofLeyshon Consulting Pty Ltd having first been sought and obtained.

This Report involves the making of future projections. Those projections are groundedupon the facts and matters contained in this Report. Some or all of those facts andmatters comprise assumptions and/or representations upon which Leyshon ConsultingPty Ltd has relied but about which it has no knowledge of its own. By reason of this,Leyshon Consulting Pty Ltd cannot warrant or represent the correctness or accuracy ofsuch assumptions and/or representations. It follows that, while the projectionscontained in this Report are made with care and judgment, Leyshon Consulting Pty Ltdcannot confirm, warrant or guarantee that actual results achieved will be consistent withthe results projected by this Report.

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December 2019

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIntroduction Section 1

This Report has been prepared by Leyshon Consulting Pty Ltd for Thirroul Plaza Pty Ltd.The Report examines the potential economic effects of a proposal to redevelop theThirroul Plaza shopping centre.

The existing centre contains 2,400m² of retail floorspace anchored by a small, older-styleColes supermarket of 1,241m².

The proposed redevelopment will increase the centre’s retail floorspace to 3,864m² andthe size of the Coles supermarket to 2,820m². This represents a net increase of +1,464 m²in the centre’s overall size. The provision of some 82 residential units above theredeveloped centre is also proposed.

Retail Context Section 2

Corrimal is the dominant centre in the northern beaches area of Wollongong LGA.Corrimal contains an estimated 24,400m² of retail floorspace and is currently anchored byWoolworths and Coles supermarkets. An Aldi supermarket is under construction.

The other major centres in this area are Woonona (IGA), Bulli (Woolworths), Thirroul(Coles) and Helensburgh (Coles). These centres all currently have a very low level of vacantshopfront floorspace–less than 2.5%. This indicates a high level of demand exists in thearea for the provision of local retail, personal and commercial services.

Demand Analysis Section 3

The trade area population exhibits above average socio-economic characteristics. Forexample, median household income levels in the Thirroul trade area in 2016 were +47%above the Wollongong LGA average.

The Thirroul trade area population will experience modest growth in the period to 2026 ofapproximately +0.8% per annum. By 2026 the trade area population is estimated to be inthe order of 19,285 residents.

Total annual available retail spending generated in the trade area is estimated to increasefrom $247.8 million in 2018 to $274.4 million in 2026–an increase in annual availablespending of +$26.6 million in real terms ($2019).

Total annual available supermarket spending is estimated to increase from $78.1 millionin 2018 to $89.2 million in 2026–an increase in annual available supermarket spending of+$11.1 million in real terms ($2019) during this period.

Economic Impact Assessment ~Proposed Redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza Shopping Centre EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDecember 2019 Page i

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDemand Analysis Cont’d

In the period 2018-26 the trade area could support approximately 4,075m² of additionalretail floorspace and some 1,100m² of additional supermarket floorspace.

The trade area is estimated to have a theoretical shortfall of at least -1,800 m² ofsupermarket floorspace at present.

The proposed expansion of Thirroul Plaza’s Coles by +1,579m² is clearly justified havingregard to both the growth in demand for supermarket floorspace to 2026 and the existingunder-supply of such floorspace in the trade area.

Retail Impact Section 4

The net additional sales likely to be captured by a redeveloped Thirroul Plaza areestimated at $18 million in 2021 ($2019).

The estimated impacts of the proposed redevelopment on existing centres range between-4% to -7.2% which are classified as being in the ‘very low’ and ‘low/medium’ categories ofimpact respectively. The impact of the proposal principally will be experienced by nationalchain full-line supermarkets at Bulli and Corrimal and, to a lesser extent, Coles atHelensburgh.

The proposed increase in floorspace at Thirroul Plaza will translate into an estimatedadditional 56 full- and part-time positions in the centre across the supermarket andassociated specialty retail floorspace combined.

Conclusion Section 5

There is no evidence to suggest the impact of the proposed development will have anyadverse outcomes for existing centres in or nearby to the Thirroul trade area. All appear tobe trading well at present and have low levels of vacant floorspace.

We consider the proposed redevelopment is justified having regard to the material benefitsit will confer on trade area residents–namely improving the retail offer in Thirroul andproviding for greater competition, choice and convenience in the local retail sector. It willalso strengthen Thirroul as a retail and employment destination.

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Economic Impact Assessment ~Proposed Redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza Shopping Centre EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDecember 2019 Page ii

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1INTRODUCTION

1.1 BackgroundThis Report has been prepared by Leyshon Consulting Pty Ltd for

Thirroul Plaza Pty Ltd.

The Report sets out the estimated economic effects of a proposal to

redevelop Thirroul Plaza to accommodate new retail floorspace and

additional residential floorspace. The assessment focuses particularly on

the economic effects of the proposed retail floorspace.

1.2 Development ProposalThirroul Plaza is located at the intersection of Lawrence Hargrave Drive

and King Street, Thirroul. As indicated in TABLE 1.1, the existing centre

contains some 2,400m² of retail floorspace (net lettable area [NLA]) and

is anchored by a small, older-style Coles supermarket of 1,241m².

TABLE 1.1THIRROUL PLAZA – EXISTING and PROPOSED RETAIL FLOORSPACE

Tenancy ...Existing Centre

(m²)

ProposedCentre (m²) Change (m²)

Supermarket 1,241 2,820 1,579

Shops 1,159 1 1,044 (115)

Total Centre 2,400 3,864 1,464

Note 1: Includes retail kiosks.

Source: Thirroul Plaza Pty Ltd, 2019.

The proposed redevelopment of the centre is depicted in the plans

provided at APPENDIX A to this Report. The redevelopment will involve

two levels of basement parking providing some 410 spaces in total. The

Economic Impact Assessment ~Proposed Redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza Shopping CentreDecember 2019 Page 1

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ground level will be redeveloped primarily for retail floorspace with

ancillary areas set aside for loading facilities and the like.

In total some 3,864m² NLA of retail floorspace will be provided once

the centre is redeveloped. It is proposed to expand the existing Coles

supermarket to 2,820m²–an increase of +1,579m² over Coles’ current

footprint. In addition 1,044m² of specialty retail space will be provided

representing a decrease of -115m² in terms of the existing provision of

specialty retailing in the centre.

In total the net increase in retail floorspace will be +1,464m².

Some 82 residential units will be provided over three levels above the

retail podium.

1.3 Report StructureThis Report is structured as follows:

1.0 – Introduction

2.0 – Retail Context

3.0 – Demand Analysis

4.0 – Impact Analysis

5.0 – Conclusion.


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2RETAIL CONTEXT

2.1 OverviewThirroul is located at the northern end of Wollongong Local

Government Area (LGA). To the north of Thirroul a narrow band of

residential development is wedged between the ocean and the

Illawarra escarpment. The suburbs to the immediate north include

Stanwell Park, Coalcliff, Scarborough, Wombarra, Coledale and

Austinmer.

To the south of Thirroul the coastal plain broadens out south of Bulli. As

discussed below, Corrimal is the largest centre in retail terms in the

northern beaches area of Wollongong LGA.

In Section 3 of this Report the trade area of Thirroul Plaza is described

in detail. In brief, the redeveloped centre is expected to draw most of

its trade from the area between Woonona in the south and Stanwell

Park in the north.

Over the past two decades the northern suburbs of Wollongong LGA

have undergone marked demographic change. The area around

Thirroul had distinctly working-class origins associated with its history

as a coal-mining area. In recent years, however, a new wave of

settlement has brought a younger, more highly skilled and more affluent

population to the area.

The influx of residents with higher socio-economic status has led to an

increased demand for the provision of higher quality retail services in

the coastal suburbs of Wollongong.


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2.2 Existing Centre NetworkThe characteristics of existing centres in the northern beaches area of

Wollongong LGA are set out in TABLE 2.1.

TABLE 2.1EXISTING MAJOR CENTRES – WOLLONGONG NORTHERN BEACHES AREA, 2019

Centre ...

RetailFloorspace

(m²) Major Tenants

VacantFloorspace

(m²)

Corrimal 24,400 Woolworths + Coles (2,986m²) 527

Woonona 8,400 IGA (1,475m²) 180

Bulli 7,300 Woolworths (3,689m²) 85

Thirroul 10,535Coles (1,241m²),

IGA (1,085m²) 65

Helensburgh 6,200 Coles (1,950m²) 110

Source: SGS, 2014; Leyshon Consulting Survey, November 2019.

As noted above, the dominant centre in the area is Corrimal which

contains an estimated 24,400m² of retail and related floorspace.

Corrimal is designated as a District Centre.

Retailing in Corrimal is dominated by the Lederer Centre (formerly

Stockland) and Corrimal Park Mall. Corrimal has both Woolworths and

Coles supermarkets together with a wide range of specialty shops. We

understand that in September, 2015 Council approved an Aldi

supermarket of 1,700m² together with five small retail tenancies,

residential apartments and a childcare centre at 36-44 Underwood

Street, Corrimal although construction of the project is yet to be

completed.

The other major centres in the northern beaches area of Wollongong

LGA are of neighbourhood scale and located at:


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< Woonona – 8,400m² which contains an IGA supermarket

(1,475m²)

< Bulli – 7,300m² which contains a full line Woolworths

supermarket

< Thirroul – 10,535m² containing a small Coles supermarket

and an IGA supermarket

< Helensburgh – 6,200m² anchored by a small Coles

supermarket.

Apart from the centres noted above, small clusters of shops are found

in other coastal communities to the north of Thirroul namely at

Austinmer, Coledale and Stanwell Park.

Our recent field survey of centres in the area found a very low level of

vacant shopfront floorspace. We estimate that all of the centres

surveyed had less than 2.5% of their shopfront retail space vacant.

Typically, retail centres of the type found in northern Wollongong LGA

have vacancy rates of about 5% to 10%.

In our opinion, the very low incidence of vacant floorspace indicates a

high level of demand for the provision of local retail, personal and

commercial services is generated by the coastal communities of

northern Wollongong.


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3DEMAND ANALYSIS

3.1 Trade Area We have defined a trade area for the proposed redeveloped Thirroul

Plaza centre (FIGURE 3.1 refers). Definition of the trade area has had

regard to a number of factors including:

< the location of competitive centres particularly those containing

national chain supermarkets

< the road system in the area

< the terrain of the area which is likely to impact residents’

willingness to travel to more distant centres such as

Helensburgh.

The trade area comprises the following components:

< Primary Trade Area (PTA) – includes the suburbs of Thirroul,

Austinmer, Coledale, Wombarra, Scarborough, Clifton,

Coalcliff and Stanwell Park; and

< Secondary Trade Area (STA) – includes the suburb of Bulli

but excludes Woonona.


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Coles, WOW + Aldi Approved

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Coles + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGAColes + IGA

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Figure 3.1: Thirroul Trade Area

Site Coordinates

Longitude/X:Latitude/Y:

150.922960 -34.315070

N

0 2.5 5

Kilometres

Site

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3.2 Trade Area DemographyWe have reviewed the trade area’s demography as at the 2016 Census

focussing on the three key demographic variables which most influence

retail spending namely:

< age structure of the population

< family structure

< income levels.

Age Profile

As can be noted from TABLE 3.1, compared with Wollongong LGA at

the 2016 Census the trade area had an age profile characterised by:

< a higher percentage of children aged 0-14 years

< a much lower percentage of people aged 20-29 years

< a higher percentage of those aged 40-59 years

< a much high percentage of those aged 60-69 years

< a lower percentage of older residents–namely those aged 70+

years.

In summary, the population profile of the Thirroul trade area in 2016

was dominated by adults in their most productive years as far as income

earning potential is concerned–namely the 30-60 year cohort.


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Family Structure

In relation to family structure, as can be noted from TABLE 3.1, in 2016

the trade area had a significantly above average incidence of families

comprising couples with children aged 15 years or under (43.9%)

compared with Wollongong LGA where only 29% of families were of

this type. There was also a markedly lower incidence of couple only

families (27%) compared with 36.3% in Wollongong LGA. Only 11.1%

of families in the Thirroul trade area in 2016 were single-parent families

compared with 17.5% in Wollongong LGA.

In summary, the family structure of the trade area population means the

area generates relatively high levels of retail spending given it is

dominated by couples with dependent children–particularly children

aged 15 years or less.

Income

At the 2016 Census, individual, family and household incomes in the

Thirroul trade area were substantially higher than those found in

Wollongong LGA as a whole.

As indicated in TABLE 3.1, the trade area’s median personal income

was $807 per week ($2016)–some +38% above the Wollongong LGA

average of $585 per week.

The median family income in the Thirroul trade area in 2016 was

$2,278 per week which was +33% higher than the Wollongong LGA

average of $1,710 per week.

The median household income in the Thirroul trade area in 2016 was

$1,964 per week–fully +47% above the Wollongong LGA average of

$1,339 per week.


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In summary, the higher average income levels of individuals,

households and families in the Thirroul trade area in 2016 would

translate into an above average demand for retail goods and personal

services.

TABLE 3.1SELECTED KEY DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS – THIRROUL TRADE AREA andWOLLONGONG LGA, 2016 (% Population)

Variable ... PTA STAMain

Trade AreaWollongong

LGA

Age Structure

0-4 years 6.0 6.8 6.3 5.9

5-9 7.1 8.4 7.5 6.2

10-14 7.0 7.6 7.2 5.8

15-19 6.1 7.1 6.4 6.4

20-29 9.3 9.6 9.4 14.2

30-39 11.2 12.7 11.7 12.3

40-49 15.0 15.5 15.2 13.2

50-59 16.2 14.0 15.4 13.0

60-69 12.5 10.1 11.7 10.6

70+ 9.6 8.2 9.2 12.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Family Structure

Couple Only 37.6 19.8 27.0 36.3

Couple Families with Children <15 years 34.9 49.9 43.9 29.0

Couple Families with Children >15 years 16.4 17.9 17.3 15.6

Single Parent Family 10.3 11.7 11.1 17.5

Other Families 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.6

Total Families 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Income Profile

Median Personal Income ($ per week) $828 $765 $807 $585

Median Family Income ($ per week) $2,350 $2,266 $2,278 $1,710

Median Household Income ($ per week) $2,043 $1,896 $1,964 $1,339

Average Annual Household Income($2016) $104,333 $95,715 $101,564 $77,448

Source: ABS Census, 2016.


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3.3 Population GrowthThe area surrounding Thirroul is experiencing modest population

growth. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in 2018 indicated the

estimated resident population (ERP) of the area surrounding Thirroul

was growing at about 1.1% to 1.2% per annum (TABLE 3.2 refers).

TABLE 3.2ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION for SELECTED STATISTICAL AREAS (SA2s), 2011-18 (No. Persons)

SA2 ... 2011 2017 2018Growth Rate2017-18 (%)

Thirroul/Austinmer/Coalcliff 11,165 11,822 11,954 1.10%

Woonona/Bulli/Russell Vale 19,263 20,692 20,936 1.20%

Source: ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia Cat. No. 3218.0.

TABLE 3.3 sets out our estimate of potential future population growth

in the trade area to 2026. In summary, a continuation of modest, albeit

slowing, population growth has been assumed for the period 2016-26.

The trade area’s overall ERP is forecast to increase by +1,430 people

from 17,855 in 2016 to 19,285 in 2026. The assumed average annual

rate of growth between 2016-26 is approximately +0.8% per annum.

TABLE 3.3PROJECTED POPULATION – THIRROUL TRADE AREA, 2016-26 (No. Persons)

Trade AreaSegment ... 2016 2018 2021 2026

Growth2016-26

PTA 11,750 11,840 12,187 12,582 832

STA 6,105 6,289 6,480 6,703 598

Main Trade Area(MTA) 17,855 18,129 18,667 19,285 1,430

Source: Leyshon Consulting Estimates, November 2019.


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3.4 Available Retail SpendingWe have prepared estimates of the growth in annual available retail

spending in the Thirroul trade area between 2018-26.

Based on data from the 2016 Census, the 2015-16 Household

Expenditure Survey and changes in average weekly earnings since 2016

(as documented by the ABS), we estimate average annual per capita

retail spending in the trade area in 2018 was $13,670 ($2019).

Due to a likely continuation for the foreseeable future of very subdued

levels of growth in average incomes it is expected there will be limited

real growth (that is, over and above inflation) in retail spending in the

period to 2026.

For the purposes of analysis we have assumed real spending growth of

+0.5% per annum during this period. This compares to growth rates of

up to +2% per annum experienced in the period 2000-15 in Australia.

As indicated in TABLE 3.4, we estimate annual available retail spending

generated in the trade area will increase from $247.8 million in 2018

to $274.4 million in 2026–an increase in annual available spending of

+$26.6 million in real terms between 2018-26.


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TABLE 3.4ESTIMATED AVAILABLE RETAIL SPENDING – THIRROUL TRADE AREA,2018-26 ($2019)

Factor ... 2018 2021 2026Increase2018-26

Population 18,129 18,666 19,284 1,155

Per Capita Retail Spending ($ per capita p.a.) $13,670 $13,876 $14,227 n.a.

Spending Category ($ Mil. per annum)...

Food, Liquor and Groceries $148.7 $155.4 $164.6 $16.0

Clothing and Accessories $18.3 $19.2 $20.3 $2.0

Household Goods $50.3 $52.6 $55.7 $5.4

Personal Services $20.6 $21.5 $22.8 $2.2

Other $9.9 $10.4 $11.0 $1.1

Total Retail Spending $247.8 $259.0 $274.4 $26.6

Supermarket Spending $78.1 $82.9 $89.2 $11.1

Errors due to rounding.


Annual available supermarket spending meanwhile is forecast to

increase from $78.1 million in 2018 to $89.2 million in 2026–an

increase in annual available spending of +$11.1 million in real terms

($2019) during this period.

It should be noted that the estimates set out in TABLE 3.4 are, to some

extent, likely to understate the volume of spending available to trade

area retailers. The reason for this is that, firstly, at the 2016 Census the

trade area had a somewhat above average level of vacant dwellings

(12.1%) compared with 7.9% in Wollongong LGA. Anecdotal evidence

suggests a component of these dwellings are in fact ‘weekenders’

owned by Sydney residents and occupied on a part-time basis

throughout the year and/or dwellings used for visitor accommodation.

These part-time residents undoubtedly would increase the total pool of

annual available spending generated in the area.


Leyshon Consulting

Second, due to its proximity to Sydney the northern beaches locality of

Wollongong attracts a significant proportion of tourist and visitor

spending usually associated with day trips to the area. Such spending is

notoriously difficult to estimate with any degree of precision, however.

3.5 Demand for Additional RetailFloorspace

Broadly, the forecast modest increase in available retail spending in the

trade area between 2018-26 can be expected to support additional

retail floorspace in general and supermarket floorspace in particular.

Based on accepted average sales rates (that is, $ per m² per annum

(sometimes referred to as ‘Retail Turnover Densities’) of $6,500 per m²

per annum for general retail floorspace and $10,000 per m² per annum

for supermarket floorspace between 2018-26 the Thirroul trade area

would support approximately 4,075m² of additional retail floorspace

and some 1,110m² of additional supermarket floorspace.

In relation to the balance between the supply of and demand for

supermarket floorspace in the trade area, we note that in 2018

estimated available supermarket spending was some $78.1 million per

annum. In theory, this would have supported up to 7,800m² of

supermarket floorspace.

At present, the trade area contains an estimated 6,014m² of

supermarket floorspace which suggests a theoretical shortfall of

approximately -1,800m² of such space currently exists.

Based on our observations of existing supermarkets in the trade area,

we consider it likely that, apart from Bulli Woolworths, the


Leyshon Consulting

supermarkets in Thirroul (Coles and IGA) are achieving average turnover

rates well below $10,000 per m² per annum due to their small footprint

and, in the case of Coles, outmoded store presentation. Accordingly, in

practical terms, the existing shortfall of supermarket floorspace in the

trade area is likely to be greater than -1,800m².

We conclude, therefore, that the proposed increase in supermarket

floorspace at Thirroul Plaza (+1,579m²) is clearly justified having regard

to both the growth in demand for supermarket floorspace up to 2026

of about +1,110m² and the existing under-supply of supermarket

floorspace of at least -1,800m².


Leyshon Consulting

4RETAIL IMPACT

4.1 IntroductionAn evaluation has been made of the potential impact of the proposed

redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza on existing relevant centres.

The evaluation of economic impact in the retail sector usually involves

a projection of the sales of the proposed development, the

identification of the potential diversion of sales away from existing retail

centres and the calculation of the actual and percentage change in sales

which might occur at impacted centres assuming the proposed

development is approved and proceeds.

In this particular case, account also must be taken of the fact the

existing Thirroul centre already attracts a certain level of sales from the

trade area and beyond. Accordingly, in our opinion, the appropriate

(and logical) focus in this instance is on the impact of the ‘net’

additional sales which potentially could be attracted to the centre

following its redevelopment: that is, the projected annual sales of the

completed development less the annual sales being achieved by the

centre prior to its redevelopment.

4.2 Existing and Projected Centre SalesOur estimate of the current sales of Thirroul Plaza takes into account

data provided to Leyshon Consulting by centre management. The sales

estimate also assumes Thirroul Plaza is ‘fully leased’ at present: that is,

the likely sales of the centre assuming all its floorspace is occupied.


Leyshon Consulting

As indicated in TABLE 4.1, we estimate the existing centre potentially

is achieving sales of some $14.9 million per annum ($2019) on a fully

leased basis. This is equivalent to an average centre sales rate of some

$6,866 per m² per annum.

TABLE 4.1 also includes an estimate of the potential future sales of the

redeveloped centre. This estimate is based on the proposed floor area

of the redeveloped supermarket (2,820m²) and 1,044m² of specialty

retailing. We have assumed that 100m² of the latter is devoted to non-

retail commercial/service activities.

TABLE 4.1ESTIMATED EXISTING and FUTURE SALES – THIRROUL PLAZA 2019 & 2021

FloorspaceComponent ...

Existing Centre, 2019 Proposed Centre, 2021 Sales Increase,2019-21

($ Mil. p.a.) ($ Mil. p.a.) ($ Mil. m² p.a.) ($ Mil. p.a.) ($ Mil. m² p.a.)

Supermarket $10.3 $8,300 $26.8 $9,500 $16.5

Other Retail $4.6 $5,000 $6.1 1 $6,500 $1.5

Total Centre $14.9 $6,866 $32.9 1 $8,515 $18.0

Note 1: Assumes retail 944m², non-retail 100m².


The estimate of potential future sales set out in TABLE 4.1 also takes

into account competition from surrounding shopping centres as well as

the enhanced attractiveness of Thirroul Plaza following its

redevelopment. The analysis also assumes the proposed redeveloped

centre has 2021 as its first full year of trading.

In summary, a redeveloped Thirroul Plaza is estimated to achieve

annual sales of some $32.9 million ($2019) or $8,515 per m² per

annum. As also indicated in TABLE 4.1, estimated annual supermarket

sales are $26.8 million or approximately $9,500 per m² per annum.


Leyshon Consulting

Annual sales of $32.9 million in 2021 would equate to the centre

achieving a market share of about 12.7% of available retail expenditure

generated in the trade area and assuming that all of the projected sales

originate from spending by trade area residents.

Hence, the estimated ‘net’ increase in annual sales following the

centre’s redevelopment would be approximately +$18.0 million. This

would be comprised of Coles’ sales growth of +$16.5 million and

+$1.5 million in higher specialty retail sales ($2019).

4.3 Estimated ImpactWe have prepared estimates of the potential impact the proposed

redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza would have relevant nearby centres in

2021 (TABLE 4.2 refers).

This analysis assumes total additional centre sales of +$18.0 million in

2021 ($2019). It also assumes approximately $1.7 million of these

additional sales will be due to spending redirected from centres other

than those referred to in TABLE 4.2–some of which will be located well

outside the trade area.

In summary, the potential net impact of the proposed redevelopment

on relevant existing centres in 2021 is estimated to range between

-4.0% (Woonona) to -7.2% (Bulli).


Leyshon Consulting

TABLE 4.2ESTIMATED IMPACT of THIRROUL PLAZA REDEVELOPMENT, 2021 ($2019)

2018 Sales ($ Mil. p.a.)

2021 SalesPre-Impact

($ Mil. p.a.)

2021 SalesPost-Impact

($ Mil. p.a.)

– Sales Change Pre-and Post- Impact –

$ Mil. %

Corrimal $149.6 1 $164.1 $156.8 ($7.3) (4.4)%

Bulli $58.6 $62.1 $57.6 ($4.5) (7.2)%

Woonona $48.7 $50.2 $48.2 ($2.0) (4.0)%

Helensburgh $42.5 $45.1 $42.6 ($2.5) (5.5)%

Other Centres 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. ($1.7) n.a.

Total ($18.0)

Notes:1. Assumes addition of Aldi.2. Includes both trade area and non-trade area centres.


4.4 Implications of ImpactThere is no general agreement among economists and retail analysts as

to what constitutes an unacceptable level of impact within the retail

sector.

Broadly, retail impacts are often classified as follows:

< 0% – 5% very low impact

< 6% – 10% low/medium impact

< 11% – 15% medium/high impact

< +15% – very high impact.

In our opinion, impacts of greater than -10% should be viewed as

potentially being of concern in circumstances where there is evidence

of:


Leyshon Consulting

< lack of population and spending growth

< existing centres trading at well below accepted industry average

sales levels (that is, $ per m² per annum); and

< above average levels of retail vacancies.

There is no evidence that any of these factors are relevant to an

assessment of the impact of the proposed redevelopment of Thirroul

Plaza. Indeed, the Thirroul trade area is forecast to experience on-going

modest population and spending growth in the period up to 2026 and

current retail shopfront vacancies are well below average.

In any event, based on the classification noted above, the impact of the

proposed net addition of retail floorspace to Thirroul Plaza, would be

assessed as being in either the ‘very low’ or ‘low/medium’ category

with all of the projected impacts well below -10% in 2021. The impact

on Corrimal and Woonona is projected to be in the ‘very low’ category

of impact (less than -5%) and in the ‘low/medium’ category of impact

for Bulli and Helensburgh.

In our opinion, the likely sales impact of Thirroul Plaza’s proposed

redevelopment from a market and operational perspective is highly

unlikely to lead to any significant increase in vacancies for any of the

centres identified in TABLE 4.2.

Moreover, it is almost a given that the majority of the impact which

might eventuate will fall on the national chain supermarkets in and

adjacent to the trade area–namely Woolworths at Bulli and Corrimal,

Coles at Corrimal and Helensburgh and the future Aldi store at

Corrimal. IGA’s existing Thirroul and Woonona supermarkets

meanwhile will experience only a limited impact as the majority of the


Leyshon Consulting

sales captured by the proposed expanded Coles will be derived from

spending redirected from other Coles and Woolworths supermarkets in

surrounding centres.

In relation to supermarket impact, there is almost no evidence–of which

we are aware–of national chain supermarkets closing stores as a result

of an increase in direct competition. This is due largely to supermarkets

having long leases, meaning closure as a result of increased competition

would only eventuate if the impact was truly severe and the remaining

time on the lease was relatively short. Furthermore, large chain

supermarket operators such as Coles and Woolworths are in a position

easily to absorb reduced sales at any particular store within the earnings

of a network of hundreds of stores Australia-wide.

4.4 Other BenefitsIn our opinion the proposed redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza will

provide PTA residents in particular with a substantially improved

supermarket ‘offer’. Coles’ existing Thirroul supermarket is small and

antiquated and hence unlikely to meet contemporary shopper

expectations.

A redeveloped and expanded Coles will also enable it to compete more

effectively with the much larger Woolworths supermarket at Bulli. This

will be beneficial in terms of retaining retail expenditure within the

Thirroul centre.

The proposed redevelopment will also deliver tangible benefits to trade

area residents in terms of improving competition, choice and

convenience within the local retail sector.


Leyshon Consulting

It is also likely the redeveloped centre will create additional local jobs.

Undoubtedly the construction phase will see an increase in

employment in the area. Although construction phase employment will

be transitory, once the redeveloped centre commences trading there

will be potential for the creation of additional permanent jobs given the

increase in retail floorspace.

The total proposed increase in centre floorspace of +1,464m² broadly

will translate into an estimated additional 56 full- and part-time

positions in Thirroul across the supermarket and associated specialty

retailing combined.


Leyshon Consulting

5CONCLUSION

The proposed redevelopment of Thirroul Plaza involves a relatively

modest net increase in retail floorspace of +1,464m². The main focus

of the proposed redevelopment is the expansion of the Coles

supermarket by some +1,579m².

The Thirroul trade area is currently experiencing modest population

growth. Forecast growth in available retail spending generated in the

trade area up to 2026 indicates overall demand for additional retail

floorspace by that time will be in the order of 4,075m². Approximately

1,110m² of this will be attributable to demand for additional


At present the area has a theoretical shortfall of at least -1,800m² of


In our opinion, the proposed expansion of Thirroul Plaza is justified

having regard to:

< the increased demand for supermarket and other retail

floorspace by 2026; and

< the under-supply of supermarket floorspace already evident in

the trade area.

As discussed in this Report, the impact in 2021 of the proposed net

increase in retail floorspace at Thirroul Plaza will fall into either the ‘very

low’ or ‘low/medium’ category of impact.

There is no evidence to suggest the impact of the proposed

redevelopment will have any significant adverse outcomes for existing


Leyshon Consulting

major centres in the area; all these centres appear to be trading well at

present and have very low levels of vacant retail floorspace.

In conclusion, we consider the proposed redevelopment is justified

having regard to the material benefits it will confer on trade area

residents–namely improving the retail ‘offer’ in Thirroul, providing for

greater competition, choice and convenience in the local retail sector

and strengthening Thirroul as a retail and employment destination.

eeeee


APPENDIX A

210 spaces

Basement Carpark 02

RL 0.35

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ARCHITECTURE &

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ABN 35 093 181 518

Architects

Construction Managers

Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

True North

Client:

Date

PLOT GENERATED BY ARCHITECTURE & BUILDING WORKS | THIS DRAWING IS AN UNCONTROLLED COPY UNLESS STAMPED OTHERWISE | THIS DRAWING SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL RELEVANT CONTRACTS, SPECIFICATION, REPORTS AND DRAWINGS | COPYRIGHT OF THIS DRAWING IS VESTED IN ARCHITECTURE AND BUILDING WORKS

Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600

Email: [email protected]

Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia

Website: www.abworks.com.au

303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE

HARGRAVE DRIVE, THIRROUL


BASEMENT 02

A-100

BASEMENT 02 PLAN

SCALE- 1:250

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200 spaces

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RL 3.35

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RL 4.05

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Drawing Number:

ARCHITECTURE &

BUILDING WORKS

ABN 35 093 181 518

Architects


Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

True North

Client:

Date


Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600


Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia


303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE



BASEMENT 01

A-120

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Supermarket

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Services

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281m²

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RL 7.70

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Loading Dock

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RL 7.70

109m²

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Shop 01

74m²

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73m²

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Shop 03

75m²

Shop 04

81m²

Shop 06

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51m²

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Future

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Commercial

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Paving

Drawing Number:

ARCHITECTURE &

BUILDING WORKS

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Architects


Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

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Client:

Date


Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600


Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia


303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE



GROUND FLOOR

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20 sq.m.

RL 12.70

COURTYARD

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COURTYARD

A-101

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Unit Types

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Drawing Number:

ARCHITECTURE &

BUILDING WORKS

ABN 35 093 181 518

Architects


Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

True North

Client:

Date


Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600


Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia


303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE



FIRST FLOOR

A-140

FIRST FLOOR PLAN

SCALE- 1:250

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6000

6000

RL 16.40

D-201

RL 15.80

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E-201 F-201D-202 E-205

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RL 15.80

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Drawing Number:

ARCHITECTURE &

BUILDING WORKS

ABN 35 093 181 518

Architects


Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

True North

Client:

Date


Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600


Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia


303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE



SECOND FLOOR

A-150

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SCALE- 1:250

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BOUNDARY 164.945

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F

1 Bed

Unit Types

2 Bed

3 Bed

Drawing Number:

ARCHITECTURE &

BUILDING WORKS

ABN 35 093 181 518

Architects


Interior Designers

Town Planners

Drawing Title:

Project Number:

Project Details:

True North

Client:

Date


Pn_17002

20/09/2019

Tel: (02) 8052 9600


Suite 306, Level 3

7-9 Gibbons Street

Redfern, NSW 2016

Australia


303-304 & 282-298 LAWRENCE



THIRD FLOOR

A-160

THIRD FLOOR PLAN

SCALE- 1:250

01

Date post:	11-Aug-2020
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