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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1
Economic Indicators
Last update 12.12.2012
| Economic Indicators |2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – November 2012
Europe:• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,3% to -0,2% for 2012 and
decreased from 0,4% to 0,3% for 2013.• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in October.• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Both,
the current business situation and the future business development were accessed somewhat less pessimistic. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
• Euro zone recovery prospects remain distant as unemployment edges higher and the outlook for 2013 deteriorates. The resilience previously displayed by Germany has eroded.
US:• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,1% to 2,2% for 2012 and
decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013.• Growth edged up to 2% q-o-q in Q3, but the 2013 outlook remains clouded by adverse fiscal
fundamentals and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ looming. GDP growth in Q4 will likely be hurt by hurricane Sandy.
Japan:• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan decreased again considerably from 2,3% to
1,8% for 2012 and from 1,3% to 0,8% for 2013.• Japanese GDP forecasts have been significantly downgraded, driven in part by a collapse in Q3
production.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators |4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
06Q
106
Q2
'06Q
3'0
6Q4
'07Q
1'0
7Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'08
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'09
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'10
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'11
Q1
'11
Q2
11 Q
311
Q4
12 Q
112
Q2
12 Q
312
Q4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
| Economic Indicators |5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
'06Q
1'0
6Q2
'06Q
3'0
6Q4
'07Q
1'0
7Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'08
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'09
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'10
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'11
Q1
'11
Q2
11 Q
311
Q4
12 Q
112
Q2
12 Q
312
Q4
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
| Economic Indicators |6
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
'08/
1
'08/
4
'08/
7 '0
'09/
1
'09/
4
'09/
7 '0
'10/
1
'10/
4
'10/
7 '1
'11/
1
'11/
4
'11/
7 1
12/1 12 12 12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2.6
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
| Economic Indicators |7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Dec 12
Nov.12; 2,2
Dec 12; 0,75
Dec 12; 0,25
-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,5
Jan
08
July
08
Jan
09
Jul.
09
Jan
10
Jul.
10
Jan
11
July
11
Jan
12
Jul.
12
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
| Economic Indicators |8
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
Ja
n 0
8
Ap
r.0
8
Ju
ly 0
8
Oc
t 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ap
r.0
9
Ju
l.09
Oc
t 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ap
r.1
0
Ju
l.10
Oc
t 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ap
r.1
1
Ju
l.11
Oc
t 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ap
r.1
2
Ju
l.12
Oc
t 1
2
6
7
8
9
10
1110.7
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
| Economic Indicators |9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
Ja
n 0
6A
pr.
06
Ju
l.0
6O
ct
06
Ja
n 0
7A
pr.
07
Ju
ly 0
7O
ct
07
Ja
n 0
8A
pr.
08
Ju
l.0
8O
ct
08
Ja
n 0
9A
pr.
09
Ju
ly 0
9O
ct
09
Ja
n 1
0A
pr.
10
Ju
l.1
0O
ct
10
Ja
n 1
1A
pr.
11
Ju
l.1
1O
ct
11
Ja
n 1
2A
pr.
12
Ju
l.1
2O
ct
12
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved in November.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
| Economic Indicators |10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly in November.
Jan
06
May
06
Sep
.06
Jan
07
May
07
Sep
.07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
.08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
.09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
.10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
.11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
.12
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
| Economic Indicators |11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
04
Q1
04
Q3
05
Q1
05
Q3
06
Q1
06
Q3
07
Q1 0
08
Q1 0
09
Q1 0
10
Q1 1
11
Q1 1
12
Q1
12
Q3
60
65
70
75
80
85
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
| Economic Indicators |12
Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators |13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12
The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators |14
Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12
The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators |15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators |16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jul 12
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
| Economic Indicators |17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jul 12
| Economic Indicators |18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Dec 12
| Economic Indicators |19
Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Dec 12
Jan
08
Ap
r.08
Jul.0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Ap
r.09
July
09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Ap
r.10
Jul.1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Ap
r.11
Jul.1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Ap
r.12
Jul.1
2
Oct
12
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Ap
r.08
Jul.0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Ap
r.09
Jul.0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Ap
r.10
Jul.1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Ap
r.11
Jul.1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Ap
r.12
Jul.1
2
Oct
12
80859095
100105110115120125
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
| Economic Indicators |20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation
Source: IFO Dec 12
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
| Economic Indicators |21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien
Ja
n 0
8
Ap
r.0
8
Ju
l.08
Oc
t 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ap
r.0
9
Ju
l.09
Oc
t 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ap
r.1
0
Ju
l.10
Oc
t 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ap
r.1
1
Ju
l.11
Oc
t 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ap
r.1
2
Ju
l.12
Oc
t 1
2
-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +1 to -9 in November.
| Economic Indicators |22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – November 12:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry remained on the same level like in October with+12%, in November 2011 the value was slightly lower with +8%.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – decreased from +1% to -9%, worse than in the same month last year (-3%).
The business expectations for the coming 6 months decreased considerably from -9% to -28%..
Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien
| Economic Indicators |23
Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators |24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015
| Economic Indicators |25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
At current prices
| Economic Indicators |26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12