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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1
Economic Indicators
Last update 14.2.2014
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2014
Europe:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,4% for 2014.
• The EU industrial confidence slightly deteriorated compared to last month while the consumer
confidence indicator improved once again from its December level.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany improved for the third time in succession. The
German economy made a promising start to the New Year.
• Industry is supporting the Euro area recovery. January’s manufacturing PMI climbed,
underpinned by expansions in production and new orders and the periphery performing fairly
well. On the other hand inflation remains a concern, reaching 0,7% in January. Weak price
pressure makes it harder for insolvent countries to pay down debt.
US:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,8% to 2,9% for 2014.
• The GDP outlook for 2014 has edged up on the back of the Q4 national accounts showing GDP
growth expanding by 3,2% q-o-q. Jobless rate dropped to 6,6%, but severe winter weather has
impacted negatively on employment and output. .
Japan:
• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014.
• Latest data demonstrate that the economy strengthened at the end of last year. Jobless rate fell
to 3,7% in December, the lowest unemployment rate since December 2007. Still sentiment
towards the 2014 outlook is tinged with uncertainty, especially ahead of April’s consumption tax
hike.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators | 4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
| Economic Indicators | 5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
'07Q
1
'08 Q
1
'09 Q
1
'10 Q
1
'11 Q
1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
| Economic Indicators | 6
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Jan 14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08
/1
09
/1
10
/1
11
/1
12
/1
13
/1
14
/1
1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
| Economic Indicators | 7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Feb 14
Dec 13; 0,8
Feb.14; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
Jan
14
Ju
l.14
Jan
15
%
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
| Economic Indicators | 8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
10,7
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
| Economic Indicators | 9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Industrial confidence within EU 28 deteriorated slightly in January.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
| Economic Indicators | 10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved again in January.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Ja
n 0
6
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
| Economic Indicators | 11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 14
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
79,4
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
| Economic Indicators | 12
Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators | 13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 14
The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 14
The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Dec 13
| Economic Indicators | 17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Dec 13
| Economic Indicators | 18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Feb 14
| Economic Indicators | 19
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Feb 14
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in
succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since
June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most
optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the
New Year.
| Economic Indicators | 20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Feb 14
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in
succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since
June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most
optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the
New Year.
| Economic Indicators | 21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry decreased slightly from 0 to -2 in January.
| Economic Indicators | 22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – January 2014:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry only reached 9% in January, significantly below the 25%
reached in December. Still, such a slump after Christmas season has
been observed already in previous years.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remains rather clouded, reaching -2% after 0% in the
previous month.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative
at -13%, the same level as in the same month of last year and up from
-23% in the previous month.
Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien
| Economic Indicators | 23
Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators | 24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 27
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13