Economic OutlookJoe Cortright March 2007

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The Two Scariest Words in School

Pop Quiz

College AttainmentQuestion 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree?

College AttainmentQuestion 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree? Answer: 27.7% (American Community Survey, 2005)

High School GraduationQuestion 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)?

High School GraduationQuestion 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)? Answer: 38.8% (American Community Survey, 2005)

Returns to EducationQuestion 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma?

Returns to EducationQuestion 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma? Answer: 83% More High school graduate only: $27,915 4-year College Degree: $51,206 (Current Population Survey, 2003)

Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted)1975

Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted)2003

Who Pays TaxesQuestion 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households?

Who Pays TaxesQuestion 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households?

Answer: 55% (Impresa estimates from OPS and IRS data)

Public Expenditures: HealthQuestion 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: HealthQuestion 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 62%. (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

Public Expenditures: CorrectionsQuestion 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: CorrectionsQuestion 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 72% (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

Public Expenditures: UnemploymentQuestion 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: UnemploymentQuestion 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 71% (Impresa estimates from Oregon Employment Department data)

Nearly 3/4ths of UI Claimants have less than only a High School Diploma or less education(Data courtesy Oregon Employment Department)

Civic ParticipationQuestion 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma?

Civic ParticipationQuestion 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma? Answer: 59% more likely High School Graduate: 43.3% 4 Year College Graduate 68.7% (Adults 25 to 44, Current Population Survey, 2004 Election)

DiversityQuestion 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic?

DiversityQuestion 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic? Answer: About one in six (17%) (American Community Survey)

Global High SchoolQuestion 10: What fraction of the worlds population will attend secondary school?

Global High SchoolQuestion 10: What fraction of the worlds population will attend secondary school?Answer: Three in Five. 60% of the worlds population will attend secondary school. Secondary School is nearly universal in Europe, Korea, Japan & 70% in China, 64% in Mexico, 60% in Brazil, 50% in India.

Worldwide College AttendanceQuestion 11. What percentage of the worlds college students attend classes in the United States?

Worldwide College AttendanceQuestion 11. What percentage of the worlds college students attend classes in the United States?Answer: US Accounts for just 16% --14 million of worlds 88 million -- college students

State Per Capita Income DriversQuestion 12: Whats the biggest single factor determining differences in state per capita incomeA. Tax LevelsB. Business ClimateC. Bill GatesD. % of Adults with a 4-Year Degree

D. % of Adults with a Four-Year Degree

Dictionary

Data Dictionary

Got Talent

ColumnIndicatorDefinitionYearAuthorSourceWorksheet

1College Attainment 2005Percent of Persons 25 and Older with a 4 Year College Degree,2005CensusAmerican Community Survey, 2005Got_talent.xlsCollege Attainment2005

2Advanced Degrees 2005Percent of Persons 25 and Older with an advanced degree2005CensusAmerican Community Survey, 2005Got_talent.xlsAdvanced Degrees2005

3College Attainment 1960Percent of Persons 25 and Older with a 4 Year College Degree,1960CensusCensus 2000 PHC-T-41. A Half-Century of Learning: Historical Statistics on Educational Attainment in the United States, 1940 to 2000census_historial.xlsCollege Attainment1960

4College Attainment 1970Percent of Persons 25 and Older with a 4 Year College Degree,1970Censuscensus_historial.xlsCollege Attainment1970

5College Attainment 1980Percent of high school graduates, enrolling in 4 year college or university1980Censuscensus_historial.xlsCollege Attainment1980

6College Attainment 1990Percent of high school graduates, enrolling in 4 year college or university1990Censuscensus_historial.xlsCollege Attainment1990

7College Attainment 2000Percent of high school graduates, enrolling in 4 year college or university2000Censuscensus_historial.xlsCollege Attainment2000

8College Attainment 2005Percentage Difference in Market share of college students, aged 18 to 24 and BA graduates aged 25 to 34, 20002005CensusAmerican Community Survey, 2005pew_vitals_ed_attain.xlsCollege Attainment2005

9College-Going (4 Year) 2000Percent of High School Graduates enrolling in a 4 year college or university in the year following their graduation2000NCESNational Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Fall Enrollment" survey, 2000college_going_rate.xlsCollege-Going (4 Year)2000

10Enrolled 18 to 24s 2000Percentage of the population, 18 to 24 years of age enrolled in an educational institution2000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002Enrolled 18 to 24s2000

11Growth in YNR 1990-2000Percentage Change in Number of 25 to 34 Year Olds with a 4 year degree, 1990 to 20001990-2000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002pew_vitals_ed_attain.xlsGrowth in YNR1990-2000

12Single, College Educated 25-39 1995-2000Migration Rate, Per 1,000 population of single, college educated adults, 1995 to 20001995-2000CensusMigration of the Young, Single, and College Educated: 1995 to 2000census_young_single_coled.xlsSingle, College Educated 25-391995-2000

Big Sort

ColumnIndicatorDefinitionYearAuthorSourceWorksheet

1Percent of State Residents in 2000 Living in a different State in 1995Of those living in the US in both 1995 and 2000, the percent of persons living in a state in 2000 who lived in a different state in 19952000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002Domestic_migration.xlsPercent of State Residents in 2000 Living in a different State in 1995

2Percent of Persons 25 and older born in a state and still living in that state in 2000Of those persons 25 and older in 2000, the percent of persons born in a state who were living in their state of birth2000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002Domestic_migration.xlsPercent of Persons 25 and older born in a state and still living in that state in 2000

3Domestic Net Migration Rate,1985-1990Domestic in-migrants to a state between 1985 and 1990 less domestic out-migrants from a state between 1985 and 1990 divided by the states 1990 population1985-1990CensusCPH-L-121, Selected Place of Birth and Migration Statistics: 1990Domestic_migration.xlsDomestic Net Migration Rate,1985-1990

4Domestic Net Migration Rate,1995-2000Domestic in-migrants to a state between 1995 and 2000 less domestic out-migrants from a state between 1995 and 2000 divided by the states 2000 population1995-2000CensusCensus 2000 PHC-T-23. Migration by Sex and Age for the Population 5 Years and Over for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: 2000Domestic_migration.xlsDomestic Net Migration Rate,1995-2000

5Domestic Net Migration Rate, 2000-2006Domestic in-migrants to a state between 2000 and 2006 less domestic out-migrants from a state between 2000 and 2006 divided by the states 2006 population2000-2006CensusTable 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States, Regions and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NST-EST2006-04)Domestic_migration.xlsDomestic Net Migration Rate, 2000-2006

6Domestic Net Migration Rate of 60 to 64 Year Olds, 1995-2000Domestic in-migrants to a state between 1995 and 2000 less domestic out-migrants from a state between 1995 and 2000 divided by the states 2000 population1995-2000CensusGross and Net Migration Tabulations and County-to-County Migration Flow Data (1995 to 2000)Domestic_migration.xlsDomestic Net Migration Rate of 60 to 64 Year Olds, 1995-2000

7Near Retirement Popuation (2000)Persons aged 55 to 64 years of age living in a state in 2000, as a percentage of the state's total population2000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002Domestic_migration.xlsNear Retirement Popuation (2000)

865 and Older Population (2000)Persons aged 65 years of age and older living in a state in 2000, as a percentage of the state's total population2000CensusGeolytics, Inc., Census CD 2000 Long Form, 2002Domestic_migration.xls65 and Older Population (2000)

9College Attainment Rate of In-Migrants (1995-2000)Percentage of domestic migrants to a state between 1995 and 2000 who had completed at least a four-year college degree in 20001995-2000CensusGross and Net Migration Tabulations and County-to-County Migration Flow Data (1995 to 2000)pew_vitals_migration_ed.xlsCollege Attainment Rate of In-Migrants (1995-2000)

10College Attainment Rate of Out-Migrants (1995-2000)Percentage of domestic migrants from a state between 1995 and 2000 who had completed at least a four-year college degree in 20001995-2000Censuspew_vitals_migration_ed.xlsCollege Attainment Rate of Out-Migrants (1995-2000)

Static

Dora Costa Power Couples data

Chart ##power

Power CouplesAll Others

19400.320.27

19700.390.3

19900.50.34

Jargowsky, Poverty Neighborhoods

Number of High-Poverty NeighborhoodsHigh-Poverty Neighborhood Population (thousands)

YearNumber of High-Poverty NeighborhoodsHigh-Poverty Neighborhood Population (thousands)

19701,3454,229

19801,9835,520

19902,8668,446

20002,2517,029

Notes: Based on metropolitan areas as defined by the Census Bureau in the year of the Census

Concentration of Poverty and Metropolitan Development

July 12 2006

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dallasfed.org%2Fnews%2Fca%2F2006%2F06poverty.html&ei=zYn3Rfb5OYH6hAPbvdnZAg&usg=__PP44tvi_7dtH7_seH6isV8sD_Uk=&sig2=VqusIqXUrXt6lzvYxRs5lQ

Census Bureau

Cortright XLS File: Census_attain_age_1940_2004_tab_A2.xls

Table A-1. Years of School Completed by People 25 Years and Over, by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1940 to 2004

(Numbers in thousands. Noninstitutionalized population except where otherwise specified.)

(leading dots indicate sub-parts)

Age and yearsTotalYears of School Completed

ElementaryHigh schoolCollegeMedian

0 to 4 years5 to 8 years1 to 3 years4 years1 to 3 years4 years or more

25 YEARS OLD AND OVER

186,8762,8588,88815,99959,81147,57151,749(NA)

185,1832,9159,36116,32359,29246,91050,383(NA)

182,1422,9029,66816,37858,45646,04248,696(NA)

180,3892,8109,51816,27958,27246,28147,228(NA)

175,2302,7429,43815,67458,08644,44544,845(NA)

173,7542,7429,65515,67457,93543,17643,803(NA)

172,2112,8349,94816,77658,17442,50641,973(NA)

170,5812,84010,47217,21157,58641,77440,697(NA)

168,3233,02710,59517,10256,55941,37239,668(NA)

166,4383,07410,87316,56656,45041,24938,226(NA)

164,5123,15611,35916,92556,51540,01436,544(NA)

162,8263,38011,74717,06757,58937,45135,590(NA)

160,8273,44911,98917,67257,86035,52034,337(NA)

158,6943,80313,04617,37961,27229,17034,02612.7

156,5383,83313,75817,46160,11928,07533,29112.7

154,1553,86114,06117,71959,33626,61432,56512.7

151,6353,71414,55017,84758,94025,79930,78712.7

149,1443,64015,30117,41757,66925,47929,63712.7

146,6063,89415,67217,48456,33824,72928,48912.6

143,5243,87316,02017,55354,86623,40527,80812.6

140,7943,88416,25817,43354,07322,28126,86212.6

138,0204,11916,71417,68152,06021,53125,91512.6

135,5264,11917,23218,00651,42620,69224,05012.6

132,8994,35817,86818,04149,91520,04222,67412.5

130,4094,39018,42618,08647,93419,37922,19312.5

125,2954,32418,50417,57945,91518,39320,57912.5

123,0194,44519,30918,17544,38117,37919,33212.4

120,8704,50919,56718,31843,60216,24718,62712.4

118,8484,60119,91218,20443,15715,47717,49612.4

116,8974,91220,63318,23742,35314,51816,24412.3

115,0055,10621,20018,27441,46013,66515,30012.3

112,8665,10021,83818,42040,44812,83114,22812.3

111,1335,12422,50318,85539,17112,11713,36412.2

110,6275,57424,02918,60138,02911,78212,61212.2

109,3105,74724,51918,68237,13411,16412,06212.2

107,7506,01424,97618,52736,13310,56411,53512.1

106,4696,24825,46718,72434,60310,25411,17112.1

104,8646,40026,17818,64733,1739,91410,55012.0

103,8766,70526,47818,85932,3919,23510,21212.0

103,2456,98227,06318,61731,7039,1399,74211.8

102,4217,29527,55118,41930,7289,0859,34511.7

100,6647,82628,43817,75128,4779,1709,00211.4

99,4658,30331,21819,14024,4408,7477,61710.6

97,4787,81628,49017,52026,2197,8887,73411.0

95,6308,56129,31616,95124,8326,9857,17210.6

88,3588,00430,27415,22821,0746,7146,11810.1

87,4849,49131,61714,81717,6256,2465,2729.3

82,5788,61132,30813,48716,9265,5334,4249.0

74,77610,10534,41311,18210,5524,0753,4078.6

Index of Dissimilarity

18900.48

19000.53

19100.55

19200.59

19300.68

19400.75

19500.77

19600.79

19700.79

19800.7

19900.66

20000.63

http://www.brook.edu/es/urban/census/glaeser.pdf

From Glaeser

page 4

Concentration Ratios for Selected Population Groups, 1990 and 2000

HHI Statistic Computed for Counties Nationally

HispanicForeign-Born25 to 3465 to 74

19900.5220.460.0510.098

20000.4570.3910.0620.095

Change-0.065-0.0690.011-0.003

Census Bureau Data

Source: pew_sort_hhi.xls

From worksheet: Census-Migration-2004-2005

Table 2. General Mobility, by Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 2004 to 2005

(Numbers in thousands.)

1 to 4 years3.6%

5 to 9 years3.0%

10 to 14 years2.3%

15 to 17 years1.9%

18 to 19 years2.9%

20 to 24 years4.9%

25 to 29 years5.1%

30 to 34 years3.6%

35 to 39 years2.8%

40 to 44 years2.1%

45 to 49 years1.9%

50 to 54 years1.4%

55 to 59 years1.9%

60 to 61 years1.6%

62 to 64 years1.9%

65 to 69 years1.5%

70 to 74 years1.1%

75 to 79 years0.9%

80 to 84 years0.6%

85+ years0.9%

got_talent

DataTalent LevelGrowingAttractingTalent Trend, 1970-2005

QuestionHow Talented is my state?Is my states talent position improving or deteriorating?Is my state growing talent?Is my state attracting talent?

20052005196019701980199020002005200020001990-20001995-2000196019701980199020002005

College AttainmentAdvanced DegreesCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege-Going (4 Year)Enrolled 18 to 24sGrowth in YNRSingle, College Educated 25-39College AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege AttainmentCollege Attainment

FIPSState

520Alabama22.0%7.9%5.7%7.8%12.2%15.7%19.0%22.0%42.3%33.3%7.8%-11633

Education mattersDrives personal incomeContributes to state revenueLack of education drives state costsEducation increases civic engagementEthnic and gender diversity increasingGlobal competitiveness

A Seismic Shift in Labor MarketsLast 30 YearsBoomers enter prime work yearsWomens labor market participation nearly doublesEducational attainment up sharply= Labor SurplusNext 30 YearsBoomers retire; many earlyWomens labor market participation plateausEducational attainment plateaus= Labor Shortage

For More Informationwww.ImpresaConsulting.com

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