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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CHALLENGES FOR ASEAN
MOHAMED ARIFF
GDP growth (%) 2011 2012ADO 2011 Update ADO 2011 Update
Major industrial economies
2.1 1.3 2.1 2.0
United States 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.2
Japan 1.5 -0.5 1.8 2.8
Eurozone 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3
Sluggish growth in major industrial economies
Steady growth expected in developing Asia
2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
6.7 6.0
9.0 %
2011f 2012f
7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5
ADO 2011 (April)Update
Southeast Asia pales somewhat
Developing Asia
Central Asia
East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia
The Pacific0
2
4
6
8
10 9.0
6.6
9.6
7.9 7.9
5.7
7.5
6.1
8.1 7.2
5.4 6.4
7.5 6.6
8.0 7.7
5.6 5.5
GDP growth, by subregion
2010 2011f 2012f
%
Domestic demand plays an important role
HKG IND INO KOR MAL PHI SIN TAP THA-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Contributions to GDP growth (demand), 2011 H1
Private consumption Government consumption Investment Net exportsStatistical discrepancy GDP growth
Percentage points
FY Q1
Intraregional trade is on the rise
Exports to developing Asia
2007 2008 2009 2010 H1201130
35
40
45
50
42 4243
44
47
% share of total exports
Mounting inflationary pressures
0
5
10
15
20
25
Series1
%, year on year Inflation rates, latest month
2010 average: 4.4%
2009 average: 1.2%
Rising commodity prices
Jan
2007
Jul
Jan
08
Jul
Jan
09
Jul
Jan
10
Jul
Jan
11
Oct
0
100
200
300
400
500
Energy Agriculture
2000=100
Inflation higher than previously forecast, but deceleration in 2012?
2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
6.8
1.4
4.4
%
2011f 2012f
5.3 4.6
5.8
4.6 ADO 2011 (April)
Update
Some cases of negative real interest rates
Jan 2007
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Oct
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
PRC HKG IND KOR TAP
%
Jan 2007
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Oct
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
INO MAL PHI SIN THA VIE
%
Capital inflows are recovering
Q109 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111 Q2-20
0
20
40
60
FDI Portfolio Other investments Net
$ billion
Relatively low levels of sovereign debt, but caution is in order
Gross government debt, 2010
ARMCAM FIJ HKG
INO
KORLA
OMLD NEP PHI
SOL
TAJ
TKM VIE
USA JPN0
50
100
150
200
250
% of GDP
High reserves, a good insurance?
VIE MAL PAK BAN HKG SIN IND KOR INO THA PHI TAP PRC0
5
10
15
20
25
Months of imports Import cover, 2010
Asian Development Bank
14
15
16
17
18
Two competing forces: Lure of ASEAN’s strong fundamentals Reduction in investors’ risk appetite due to uncertainty in
the global environment
Policy makers need to prepare for more volatile capital flows
Greater volatility is expected
Sovereign debt burdenSedated US economyThe Eurozone at the brink of a recessionEconomic stagnation in JapanDeceleration of growth in China and IndiaNo immunity for East AsiaThe world economy to cave in?Can China save the world economy?
Risks to the global economy
The global economy settling in at a new equilibrium after rebalancingThe US to regain its clout as economic powerhouse, albeit on a subdued level, as it will save more and spend lessIntra-regional trade to gain greater prominence for ASEAN in the face of slower extra-regional export growthDomestic and regional demand to be the main driver of economic growth for ASEAN
Post-2015 Scenario
Rebalance growthMake growth more inclusiveSeek resilience through market integrationStrengthen monetary cooperationGo for greater fiscal coordinationPursue open regionalismStay competitive in the global arena
Risks to economic growth warrant regional solutions
GCI 2010/11 GCI 2011/12
Rank Score Rank Score
Singapore 3 5.48 2 5.63Malaysia 26 4.88 21 5.08Brunei 28 4.75 28 4.78Thailand 38 4.51 39 4.52Indonesia 44 4.43 46 4.38Vietnam 59 4.27 65 4.24Philippines 85 3.96 75 4.08Cambodia 109 3.63 97 3.85 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report
Global Competitiveness: ASEAN
2009 2010 2011
Cambodia -0.90 4.66 4.40
Indonesia 2.26 2.83 5.37
Malaysia -3.78 4.96 3.31
Myanmar 6.36 8.54 3.83
Philippines -1.66 4.73 2.29
Singapore -2.40 9.16 2.76
Thailand -4.12 6.87 2.69
Vietnam 2.49 3.94 3.98
Source: Malaysia Productivity Corporation (MPC)
ASEAN: Labor Productivity Growth (%)
2006 2007 2008 2009Cambodia 11.55 4.26 1.03 -3.99Indonesia 1.29 0.52 0.90 -0.36Malaysia 2.33 2.58 1.64 -4.93Philippines 2.46 3.33 0.99 -2.45Singapore 0.37 3.01 -6.50 -3.66Thailand 1.55 1.40 -1.16 -5.47Vietnam 0.38 0.21 -1.86 -2.28
Source: Malaysia Productivity Corporation (MPC)
ASEAN Total Factor Productivity Growth (%)
Key Messages
The global economy to experience slower growth, as the US and EU economies rebalance.
Inflation to decelerate
To adjust to the sluggish global economy, ASEAN must accelerate structural reforms
To be globally competitive, ASEAN must close rank and act as a single entity
ASEAN must take advantage of its youthful population while preparing for demographic transitions over the medium term
THANK YOUFf