ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:

IMPLICATIONS FOR AG

LENDERSRemarks by Mark PearsonIndependent Community Bankers

Nashville, TennesseeMarch 12, 2012

Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016

Source: usgovernmentspending.com

U.S. National Debt

Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO

Thoughts on the World Economy

Source: CIA Factbook

• $71.25 trillion – Global GDP• $14.89 trillion – EU GDP• $14.72 trillion – U.S. GDP• $9.87 trillion – China GDP• $4.33 trillion – Japan GDP• $4.04 trillion – India GDP

U.S. GDP – FY2004-FY2014

Source: usgovernmentspending.com

World Real GDP Growth 1980-2013

Source: Int’l Monetary Fund

U.S. Consumer Confidence

Source: University of Michigan

New Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Census of Bureau

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Manufacturers’ New Orders 2010-11

DJIA Five-Year Performance

Source: finance.yahoo.com

10-Year Treasury Note Yield

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Five-Year U.S. Dollar Index

Source: NYBOT

Source: kitco.com

Five-Year Gold Prices

10-Year Prime Rate

Source: MoneyCafe.com

Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010

Source: Chicago Federal Reserve

Repayment Capacity 1970-2011

Source: ERS, USDA

d

Farm Sector Debt Ratios 1970-2011

Source: ERS, USDA

Farm Sector Equity 1970-2011

Source: ERS, USDA

d

Farm Sector Business Debt 1970-2011

Source: ERS, USDA

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Source: NYMEX

  

China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2020

Source: Int’l Energy Outlook

China’s Demand for Oil Imports

Source: Int’l Energy Outlook

China Flex Its Military Muscles

Source: Defencetalk.com

Vital Maritime Chokepoints

Source: EIA

Projected World Population 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

World Population Density

World Population Growth Rate

Source: CIA Factbook

“Youth Bulge” Population Impact

Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

2005 2030 2050

Pakistan

Iran158.1

Afghanistan30025020015010050250

240.3

292.2

69.4

25.1

91.2

53.379.4

100.2

Millions

Median Age in Mideast Hot Spots

Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

2005 2030 2050

Pakistan

Iran

20

Afghanistan

28

34

23

16

36

1823

41

10-Year Corn Prices

Source: NASS

10-Year Soybean Prices

Source: NASS

10-Year Wheat Prices

Source: NASS

10-Year Cattle Prices

Source: NASS

10-Year Hog Prices

Source: NASS

10-Year Cotton Prices

Source: NASS