32
Economic & Real Estate Market Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Canopy Realtor® Association January 10, 2020
Economic & Real Estate Market Outlook
By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®
Presentation at Canopy Realtor® Association
January 10, 2020
Annual GDP Growth Rate of 2.9% in 2018 but Slowing in 2019 and 2020
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumer Confidence Remains High
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
00
- J
an2
00
0 -
Ju
l2
00
1 -
Jan
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an2
00
2 -
Ju
l2
00
3 -
Jan
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an2
00
4 -
Ju
l2
00
5 -
Jan
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an2
00
6 -
Ju
l2
00
7 -
Jan
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an2
00
8 -
Ju
l2
00
9 -
Jan
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an2
01
0 -
Ju
l2
01
1 -
Jan
20
11
- J
ul
20
12
- J
an2
01
2 -
Ju
l2
01
3 -
Jan
20
13
- J
ul
20
14
- J
an2
01
4 -
Ju
l2
01
5 -
Jan
20
15
- J
ul
20
16
- J
an2
01
6 -
Ju
l2
01
7 -
Jan
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- J
an2
01
8 -
Ju
l2
01
9 -
Jan
20
19
- J
ul
After-Tax Corporate Profits
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
20
00
- Q
12
00
0 -
Q3
20
01
- Q
12
00
1 -
Q3
20
02
- Q
12
00
2 -
Q3
20
03
- Q
12
00
3 -
Q3
20
04
- Q
12
00
4 -
Q3
20
05
- Q
12
00
5 -
Q3
20
06
- Q
12
00
6 -
Q3
20
07
- Q
12
00
7 -
Q3
20
08
- Q
12
00
8 -
Q3
20
09
- Q
12
00
9 -
Q3
20
10
- Q
12
01
0 -
Q3
20
11
- Q
12
01
1 -
Q3
20
12
- Q
12
01
2 -
Q3
20
13
- Q
12
01
3 -
Q3
20
14
- Q
12
01
4 -
Q3
20
15
- Q
12
01
5 -
Q3
20
16
- Q
12
01
6 -
Q3
20
17
- Q
12
01
7 -
Q3
20
18
- Q
12
01
8 -
Q3
20
19
- Q
12
01
9 -
Q3
In $billion
Business Investment in U.S.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20
10
- Q
1
20
10
- Q
2
20
10
- Q
3
20
10
- Q
4
20
11
- Q
1
20
11
- Q
2
20
11
- Q
3
20
11
- Q
4
20
12
- Q
1
20
12
- Q
2
20
12
- Q
3
20
12
- Q
4
20
13
- Q
1
20
13
- Q
2
20
13
- Q
3
20
13
- Q
4
20
14
- Q
1
20
14
- Q
2
20
14
- Q
3
20
14
- Q
4
20
15
- Q
1
20
15
- Q
2
20
15
- Q
3
20
15
- Q
4
20
16
- Q
1
20
16
- Q
2
20
16
- Q
3
20
16
- Q
4
20
17
- Q
1
20
17
- Q
2
20
17
- Q
3
20
17
- Q
4
20
18
- Q
1
20
18
- Q
2
20
18
- Q
3
20
18
- Q
4
20
19
- Q
1
20
19
- Q
2
20
19
- Q
3
% change from one year ago
Commercial REALTORS® reported slower leasing activity in 2019 Q2
3.1%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
Annual Change in REALTORS® Commercial Leasing Volume
Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, Real Capital Analytics
Existing and New Home Sales Combined
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
20
00
- J
an
20
00
- A
ug
20
01
- M
ar
20
01
- O
ct
20
02
- M
ay
20
02
- D
ec
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- F
eb
20
04
- S
ep
20
05
- A
pr
20
05
- N
ov
20
06
- J
un
20
07
- J
an
20
07
- A
ug
20
08
- M
ar
20
08
- O
ct
20
09
- M
ay
20
09
- D
ec
20
10
- J
ul
20
11
- F
eb
20
11
- S
ep
20
12
- A
pr
20
12
- N
ov
20
13
- J
un
20
14
- J
an
20
14
- A
ug
20
15
- M
ar
20
15
- O
ct
20
16
- M
ay
20
16
- D
ec
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- F
eb
20
18
- S
ep
20
19
- A
pr
In thousand units
Recent National Existing Home Sales (Not Breaking Higher)
4,000,000
4,200,000
4,400,000
4,600,000
4,800,000
5,000,000
5,200,000
5,400,000
5,600,000
5,800,0002
01
6 -
Jan
20
16
- F
eb
20
16
- M
ar2
01
6 -
Ap
r2
01
6 -
May
20
16
- J
un
20
16
- J
ul
20
16
- A
ug
20
16
- S
ep
20
16
- O
ct2
01
6 -
No
v2
01
6 -
De
c2
01
7 -
Jan
20
17
- F
eb
20
17
- M
ar2
01
7 -
Ap
r2
01
7 -
May
20
17
- J
un
20
17
- J
ul
20
17
- A
ug
20
17
- S
ep
20
17
- O
ct2
01
7 -
No
v2
01
7 -
De
c2
01
8 -
Jan
20
18
- F
eb
20
18
- M
ar2
01
8 -
Ap
r2
01
8 -
May
20
18
- J
un
20
18
- J
ul
20
18
- A
ug
20
18
- S
ep
20
18
- O
ct2
01
8 -
No
v2
01
8 -
De
c2
01
9 -
Jan
20
19
- F
eb
20
19
- M
ar2
01
9 -
Ap
r2
01
9 -
May
20
19
- J
un
20
19
- J
ul
20
19
- A
ug
20
19
- S
ep
Good Time To Buy? (% consumers who strongly agree)
30
35
40
45
50
2017 -Q1
2017 -Q2
2017 -Q3
2017 -Q4
2018 -Q1
2018 -Q2
2018 -Q3
2018 -Q4
2019 -Q1
2019 -Q2
2019 -Q3
Inventory of Homes for Sale
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
45000002
00
0 -
Jan
20
00
- A
ug
20
01
- M
ar
20
01
- O
ct
20
02
- M
ay
20
02
- D
ec
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- F
eb
20
04
- S
ep
20
05
- A
pr
20
05
- N
ov
20
06
- J
un
20
07
- J
an
20
07
- A
ug
20
08
- M
ar
20
08
- O
ct
20
09
- M
ay
20
09
- D
ec
20
10
- J
ul
20
11
- F
eb
20
11
- S
ep
20
12
- A
pr
20
12
- N
ov
20
13
- J
un
20
14
- J
an
20
14
- A
ug
20
15
- M
ar
20
15
- O
ct
20
16
- M
ay
20
16
- D
ec
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- F
eb
20
18
- S
ep
20
19
- A
pr
20
19
- N
ov
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20
00
- J
an
20
00
- J
ul
20
01
- J
an
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an
20
02
- J
ul
20
03
- J
an
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an
20
04
- J
ul
20
05
- J
an
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an
20
06
- J
ul
20
07
- J
an
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an
20
08
- J
ul
20
09
- J
an
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an
20
10
- J
ul
20
11
- J
an
20
11
- J
ul
20
12
- J
an
20
12
- J
ul
20
13
- J
an
20
13
- J
ul
20
14
- J
an
20
14
- J
ul
20
15
- J
an
20
15
- J
ul
20
16
- J
an
20
16
- J
ul
20
17
- J
an
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- J
an
20
18
- J
ul
20
19
- J
an
20
19
- J
un
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate and 30-year Mortgage Rate
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2018- Jan
2018- Feb
2018- Mar
2018- Apr
2018- May
2018- Jun
2018- Jul
2018- Aug
2018- Sep
2018- Oct
2018- Nov
2018- Dec
2019- Jan
2019- Feb
2019- Mar
2019- Apr
2019- May
2019- May
2019- Jun
2019- Jul
2019- Aug
2019- Sep
2019- Oct
Mortgage Rates tied to 10-year Treasury
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
20
00
- J
an2
00
0 -
Ju
l2
00
1 -
Jan
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an2
00
2 -
Ju
l2
00
3 -
Jan
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an2
00
4 -
Ju
l2
00
5 -
Jan
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an2
00
6 -
Ju
l2
00
7 -
Jan
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an2
00
8 -
Ju
l2
00
9 -
Jan
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an2
01
0 -
Ju
l2
01
1 -
Jan
20
11
- J
ul
20
12
- J
an2
01
2 -
Ju
l2
01
3 -
Jan
20
13
- J
ul
20
14
- J
an2
01
4 -
Ju
l2
01
5 -
Jan
20
15
- J
ul
20
16
- J
an2
01
6 -
Ju
l2
01
7 -
Jan
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- J
an2
01
8 -
Ju
l2
01
9 -
Jan
20
19
- J
ul
REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index
16% vs. 37%
9095
100105110115120125130135140
20
00
- J
an
20
00
- J
ul
20
01
- J
an
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an
20
02
- J
ul
20
03
- J
an
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an
20
04
- J
ul
20
05
- J
an
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an
20
06
- J
ul
20
07
- J
an
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an
20
08
- J
ul
20
09
- J
an
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an
20
10
- J
ul
20
11
- J
an
20
11
- J
ul
20
12
- J
an
20
12
- J
ul
20
13
- J
an
20
13
- J
ul
20
14
- J
an
20
14
- J
ul
20
15
- J
an
20
15
- J
ul
20
16
- J
an
20
16
- J
ul
20
17
- J
an
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- J
an
20
18
- J
ul
20
19
- J
an
20
19
- J
ul
Job Growth from 2000 to 2019
U.S. Charlotte
Total Payroll Employment Growth
Total Jobs in Charlotte
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
20
00
- J
an2
00
0 -
Ju
l2
00
1 -
Jan
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an2
00
2 -
Ju
l2
00
3 -
Jan
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an2
00
4 -
Ju
l2
00
5 -
Jan
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an2
00
6 -
Ju
l2
00
7 -
Jan
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an2
00
8 -
Ju
l2
00
9 -
Jan
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an2
01
0 -
Ju
l2
01
1 -
Jan
20
11
- J
ul
20
12
- J
an2
01
2 -
Ju
l2
01
3 -
Jan
20
13
- J
ul
20
14
- J
an2
01
4 -
Ju
l2
01
5 -
Jan
20
15
- J
ul
20
16
- J
an2
01
6 -
Ju
l2
01
7 -
Jan
20
17
- J
ul
20
18
- J
an2
01
8 -
Ju
l2
01
9 -
Jan
20
19
- J
ul
In thousands
Average Weekly Earnings in Charlotte Metro
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
20
07
- J
an2
00
7 -
Ap
r2
00
7 -
Ju
l2
00
7 -
Oct
20
08
- J
an2
00
8 -
Ap
r2
00
8 -
Ju
l2
00
8 -
Oct
20
09
- J
an2
00
9 -
Ap
r2
00
9 -
Ju
l2
00
9 -
Oct
20
10
- J
an2
01
0 -
Ap
r2
01
0 -
Ju
l2
01
0 -
Oct
20
11
- J
an2
01
1 -
Ap
r2
01
1 -
Ju
l2
01
1 -
Oct
20
12
- J
an2
01
2 -
Ap
r2
01
2 -
Ju
l2
01
2 -
Oct
20
13
- J
an2
01
3 -
Ap
r2
01
3 -
Ju
l2
01
3 -
Oct
20
14
- J
an2
01
4 -
Ap
r2
01
4 -
Ju
l2
01
4 -
Oct
20
15
- J
an2
01
5 -
Ap
r2
01
5 -
Ju
l2
01
5 -
Oct
20
16
- J
an2
01
6 -
Ap
r2
01
6 -
Ju
l2
01
6 -
Oct
20
17
- J
an2
01
7 -
Ap
r2
01
7 -
Ju
l2
01
7 -
Oct
20
18
- J
an2
01
8 -
Ap
r2
01
8 -
Ju
l2
01
8 -
Oct
20
19
- J
an2
01
9 -
Ap
r2
01
9 -
Ju
l2
01
9 -
Oct
Recent Movers to Charlotte
Top 10 Likely Outperformers
Homeownership Rate Slow Recovery70% to 63% to 65%
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
20
00
- Q
1
20
00
- Q
4
20
01
- Q
3
20
02
- Q
2
20
03
- Q
1
20
03
- Q
4
20
04
- Q
3
20
05
- Q
2
20
06
- Q
1
20
06
- Q
4
20
07
- Q
3
20
08
- Q
2
20
09
- Q
1
20
09
- Q
4
20
10
- Q
3
20
11
- Q
2
20
12
- Q
1
20
12
- Q
4
20
13
- Q
3
20
14
- Q
2
20
15
- Q
1
20
15
- Q
4
20
16
- Q
3
20
17
- Q
2
20
18
- Q
1
20
18
- Q
4
20
19
- Q
3
Home Price Index based on conforming loans
Charlotte Metro
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
19
95
- Q
1
19
95
- Q
4
19
96
- Q
3
19
97
- Q
2
19
98
- Q
1
19
98
- Q
4
19
99
- Q
3
20
00
- Q
2
20
01
- Q
1
20
01
- Q
4
20
02
- Q
3
20
03
- Q
2
20
04
- Q
1
20
04
- Q
4
20
05
- Q
3
20
06
- Q
2
20
07
- Q
1
20
07
- Q
4
20
08
- Q
3
20
09
- Q
2
20
10
- Q
1
20
10
- Q
4
20
11
- Q
3
20
12
- Q
2
20
13
- Q
1
20
13
- Q
4
20
14
- Q
3
20
15
- Q
2
20
16
- Q
1
20
16
- Q
4
20
17
- Q
3
20
18
- Q
2
20
19
- Q
1
Rising Home Price means Rising Real Estate Wealth (Total Asset – Outstanding Mortgage)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
20
00
- Q
1
20
00
- Q
3
20
01
- Q
1
20
01
- Q
3
20
02
- Q
1
20
02
- Q
3
20
03
- Q
1
20
03
- Q
3
20
04
- Q
1
20
04
- Q
3
20
05
- Q
1
20
05
- Q
3
20
06
- Q
1
20
06
- Q
3
20
07
- Q
1
20
07
- Q
3
20
08
- Q
1
20
08
- Q
3
20
09
- Q
1
20
09
- Q
3
20
10
- Q
1
20
10
- Q
3
20
11
- Q
1
20
11
- Q
3
20
12
- Q
1
20
12
- Q
3
20
13
- Q
1
20
13
- Q
3
20
14
- Q
1
20
14
- Q
3
20
15
- Q
1
20
15
- Q
3
20
16
- Q
1
20
16
- Q
3
20
17
- Q
1
20
17
- Q
3
20
18
- Q
1
20
18
- Q
3
20
19
- Q
1
In $billion
Wealth: From 2000 to 2016 to 2018
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Renters Homeowners
U.S. Housing Starts … Not EnoughShort by 5 to 6 million units
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Multifamily Single-Family
Single-Family Starts in Charlotte
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2000 versus 2019 comparison2000 2019 Comment
Housing Affordability 122 146 Better
30-year mortgage rate 8.1% 4.0% Better
Population 282 million 329 million Better
Population (16 yrs old and over)
218 million 263 million Better
Households 103 million 122 million Better
Jobs 132 million 152 million Better
Total Home Sales (New + Existing)
6.1 million 5.9 million Worse
Tax Revenue and Government Spending
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue Spending$ million
Federal Deficit (one-year measure of overspending)
-1800000
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million
Economic Forecast: No Recession If No Major Trade War
2016 2017 2018 2019 Forecast
2020Forecast
GDP Growth 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6%
Job Growth +2.5 million +2.2 million +2.4 million
+2.2million
+1.5million
CPI Inflation 1.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7%
Housing Forecast: Moderate Growth
2016 2017 2018 2019Forecast
2020Forecast
New Home Sales 560,000 613,000 617,000 670,000(+9%)
750,000(+11%)
Existing Home Sales
5.4 million 5.5 million 5.3 million 5.4 million(1%)
5.6 million(+4%)
Median Price Growth
+5.1% +5.7% +4.9% +4.3% +3.6%
30-year Rate 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8%
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