May 23, 2012
Economic Recovery? The Outlook for the
US and Virginia Economies in 2012
Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD
Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy
George Mason University
VGFOA 2012 Spring Conference
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1975-Q1
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP
Past Five Recessions
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
20
07
-1
2
3
4
20
08
-1
2
3
4
20
09
-1
2
3
4
20
10
-1
2
3
4
2011
-1
2
3
4
20
12
-1
2
3
4
20
13
-1
2
3
4
20
14
-1
2
3
4
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > > >
Source: BEA, Global Insight
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mfg
N-Mfg
ISM Manufacturing and
Non-Manufacturing Indices
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted
(000s)
Apr =
+ 1.7 M
Source: BLS
U.S. Job Change by Sector
Apr 2011 – Apr 2012
-40
-52
68
23
83
63
40
229
317
119
618
445
-163
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
(000s) Total = 1,816
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted)
Ranked by Size in 2010
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight (forecasts)
Apr
= 8.1
%
GI FCST
12 – 8.1
13 – 7.8
14 – 7.2
15 – 6.5
16 – 6.1
17 – 5.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
100
Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board
Expectations
Current Situation
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
Nov-0
6
Feb-0
7
May-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Nov-0
7
Feb-0
8
May-0
8
Au
g-0
8
Nov-0
8
Feb-0
9
May-0
9
Au
g-0
9
Nov-0
9
Feb-1
0
May-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Nov-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
May-1
1
Aug-1
1
Nov-1
1
L.I.
C.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices
Nov 2006 – Dec 2011
RECESSION >
Source: The Conference Board, Re-benchmarked Series, Feb 2012
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Existing (Left Axis)
New (Right Axis)
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
(000s) (000s)
Source: NAHB (New) and NAR (Existing Sales Rebenchmark 12/11)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
GDP
Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Federal
Bus. Inv. - Eq& Sfwr
%
U.S. Economic Performance
Source: BEA, Global Insight
The Virginia Economy
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Virginia
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
Apr
+29.6
Job Change by Sector
Apr 2011 – Apr 2012
Virginia
0
-1
-4
6
0
2
-2
-1
7
-1
8
3
4
13
-3
-5 0 5 10 15
Mining
Information
Whlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
State Govt
Federal Govt
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Local Govt
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total +29,600
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
Blacksburg 2%
Charlottesville 3% Danville
1%
Harrisonburg 2%
Lynchburg 3% Northern Virginia
36%
Richmond 17%
Roanoke 4% Virginia Beach
20% Rest of VA
11%
Winchester 2%
Share of Virginia Jobs
by Metro Area
April 2012
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Rest of VA
Blacksburg
Charlottesville
Danville
Harrisonburg
Lynchburg
Northern Virginia
Richmond
Roanoke
Virginia Beach
Winchester
Share of Job Change
by Metro Area
April 2011 - April 2012
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Northern Virginia
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
Apr
+17.7
Job Change by Sector
Apr 2011 – Apr 2012
Northern Virginia
0
0
0
-1
4
0
0
7
1
3
2
0
1
-5 0 5 10 15
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total +17,700
Source: BLS , Not seasonally adjusted
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Virginia Beach
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
Apr
+0.2
Job Change by Sector
Apr 2011 – Apr 2012
Virginia Beach
0
0
2
-1
0
0
-3
-3
3
1
1
1
-2
-5 0 5 10 15
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total +200
Source: BLS , Not seasonally adjusted
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Richmond
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
Apr
+5.1
Job Change by Sector
Apr 2011 – Apr 2012
Richmond
0
0
-1
0
2
0
-1
4
2
1
-2
0
-1
-5 0 5 10 15
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total +5,100
Source: BLS , Not seasonally adjusted
Unemployment Rate
Apr 2012
7.7
5.4
6.5
8.3
7
9.1 8.5 8.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
VA NoVa Richmond Roanoke Va Beach
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Va Beach
Richmond Roanoke
Virginia
NoVa %
Unemployment Rate
March 2012
Source: BLS, Not seasonally adjusted
8.4
5.7 5.9
4.8
8.3
5.8 6.5
4.4
6.2 6.1 6.4 5.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
Home Sales
Virginia
Source: Virginia Association of Realtors
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Median Home Prices
Northern Virginia
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
301,880
337,130 343,410 335,390
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1
$
Median Home Prices
Virginia Beach
Source: National Association of Realtors
210,000 205,000
182,900 170,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1
$
Median Home Prices
Richmond
Source: CVR MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
207,000 199,925
185,975 173,500
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1
$
• Positive economic signals in much of the state
– Relatively low unemployment
– Job growth, particularly in high wage sectors
– State has been attractive to new business
– Housing recovery in many markets
• Potential risks remain
– Uneven recovery, particularly in non-metro areas
– Impacts of Federal spending curs uncertain
Outlook
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
cra.gmu.edu
