economic-situation-report-feb-2014.pdf

Economic Situation Report


February 2014

Investment Strategy

Adriana Rodríguez

[email protected]


Economic Activity

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) closed the year with a 3.98% expansion

and was marked with an average variation of 3.50% for the year, which lead to a

3.5% GDP growth for 2013.

The months with the greatest growth were between May and September, which

contributed to approximately 70% of the annual growth.

The best annual growth at the December closing for the industrial level was for the

sector known as “Indirectly Measured Financial Intermediation Services” which grew

at a rate of 9.53%; and the third best growth was shown by the “Finance and

Insurance Service” industry with 7.39%. Both benefitted from the increased capture

and placement of resources among the private sector according to the Central

Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).

Transport, storage and communications had the second best annual expansion rate

(7.59%) according to BCCR, which was mainly due to increased exports and tourism.

Monthly Economic Activity

Interannual and Average Variation

Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.

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2

According to BCCR data, credit to the private sector grew at an interannual rate of

15% as of February, with high monthly rates, mainly from the second half of last year.

The manufacturing sector experienced high volatility. Starting out with negative

interannual rates (contraction), then it started showing interannual rates of over 10%

towards the second half of 2013 and ended the year with an interannnual

expansion of 5.54%.

This high volatility was explained by the behavior suffered by the exports and

production from the Free Trade Zones, where the pace of the interannual economic

activity exceeded 20% in September of 2013 and was moderated during the third

quarter to finish the year with a 7.8% expansion.

The economic activity for the Definitive Regime was a bit more stable, and very

sluggishly started the year, but sped up as the year progressed and ended with a

4.5% growth.

Sales levels for total exports grew by 1.15% in 2013, and by January the interannual

rate was 0.4%.

In January, the monthly exports for the definitive regime increased by $10 million

compared to December and reached $391 million, and continues to maintain a

positive trend. Exports from the Free Trade Zones fell by $22 million reaching $439

million.

The construction sector lost a bit of traction during the year, and after starting the

period with an interannual rate of 4.3% closed at 1.20%. According to data provided

by the BCCR, the decreased general index was due to a 6% contraction in the

construction of public works, but saw a 5% increase in the construction of private

works.

Finally, the agricultural sector experienced a slight improvement after a long sluggish

period, and ended the year with an expansion rate of 1.90%.


3


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Al cierre de febrero, el 51% de los 292 bienes que componen la Canasta Básica aumentaron de precio, 40% bajó de precio y un 9% no presentó variaciones, según los datos del INEC.

Inflation

The monthly increase for the Basic Basket price for February was 0.66%, which was

significantly less than the increase registered in February 2013 when prices spiked to

1.02% for that month. Interannual inflation for February was 2.74%.

The accrued increase for the first bimester was 1.42%, however the previous year

registered 2.34%.

This year indicates that the exchange rate increase will be a trigger that can

unchain a series of upward price adjustments, as the cost of imported raw materials

goes up. Last years force behind the increases was due to the price increase

adjustments for regulated goods and services of 16% interannual at April as shown in

the graph below.

Effectively, tradable assets for February presented the greatest monthly inflation

(0.95%) when compared to price behaviors for non-tradable assets (0.52%),

regulated (0.41%) and non-regulated assets (0.74%).

The increase in the exchange rate can explain the behavior observed, however

January and February usually present higher price increases for the year and

therefore it would be premature to indicate a specific cause, as well as forecast

inflations above the range indicated by the Central Bank.

Consumer Price Index

Interannual variation

Source: Aldesa graph based on INEC data.

At the closing of February, 51% of the 292 goods in the Basic Basket increased in price, 40% decreased and 9% showed no change according to INEC data.

Regulated Inflation IPC Interannual Variation Un-Regulated Variation


4

According to INEC, February’s main monthly increases came from the following

categories: education (4.06%), transportation (1.71%), entertainment and culture

(1.65%) and food and beverages outside of the household (0.82%).

And by line items, the most significant increases within the inflation for February were

those presented by: vehicle acquisition, secondary education, primary education, fuel

and higher education.

Interest Rates

Interest rate behavior for February has been different among the short-term interest

rates and medium- and long-term interest rates for investment instruments that are

traded at the national stock exchange market.

The Basic Lending Rate (BLR), which movements are related more to the liquidity

levels of the financial system, showed a downward movement for February and

reaching 6.45% in the first week of March, its lowest level since 2008.

The reason behind this last downward spike of this important reference rate is due to

the reduction of the capture rates paid by the cooperative sector, because its the

only sector of four that enters the weekly BLR calculation that presented an

adjustment and lowered its average rate from 8.11% to 7.88%.

Base Lending Rate

Source: BCCR. Prepared by Aldesa.


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5

Liquidity levels for the financial system remain modest and for the time being the

rhythm of the credit need from the economic activity growth and private sector

have yet to provide any type of pressure on short-term rates.

This situation can change if the BCCR continues selling currency and capturing

liquidity through monetary stabilization bonds; however we don’t believe the BCCR

will go down this road.

The medium- and long-term rates traded for the internal debt instruments issued by

the Ministry of Treasury have responded to the increase due to the uncertainty

brought on from the current fiscal deficit, which ended in December at 5.4% GDP.

Interest rates in USD for the traded internal market bonds are showing stability with

certain pressure to increase prices. This is due to after the significant fall suffered by

bond prices in May 2013 they started being attractive once again because they

became cheaper in relation to other term investment instruments in the international

markets.

Exchange Rate

Average MONEX Exchange Rate



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Ave. ExRate

Yearly Accrued Devaluation 12.8%

Int.Purchase


6

The exchange rate for February had a notable increase that started in the last week

of January.

The traded amounts in the MONEX foreign currency market was higher in February in

relation to the total traded and daily averages. February traded a total of $381

million, while January saw $346 million. The daily average went from $15.7 million to

$19 million.

However the situation at the bank clerk’s window was inverted. A total of $2.830

million was traded for January and $2.465 million in February.

Similarly, February recorded excess for the demand of dollars regarding its sale of

$33 million while in January clerks windows recorded excess in the sale of dollars of

$62 million.

Purchases by the Non-Banking Public Sector during the month of February was $103

million, significantly lower than the amount purchased in January of $178 million.

BCCR sold $104 million in February.

We consider that the foreign currency market is going through a transition period

and upward adjustment that naturally incorporates elements of speculation and

overreaction by the financial agents. However, in the medium-term, the tradable

volumes at the bank clerk windows and at MONEX will tend to stabilize.

Traded Amounts at Windows



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7

The exchange rate should have shown a certain degree of devaluation during 2013

as a response to the changes seen by the international scenario and less dollars

entering the country due to reduced international sales, as well as decreased

investments in Colones.

All these changes were not reflected in the price of the dollar because it was

present in the MONEX market and dominated by the presence of Government

dollars.

Fiscal Deficit

The Costa Rican government needed ₡ 138 Billion (0.5% of GDP) to pay its expenses

for January, including ₡ 57 Billion to pay off interests for current debt. Total deficit for

January was ₡ 194 Billion (0.7% of GDP), which was financed internally according to

the information available by the Ministry of Treasury.

Earnings for the month were ₡ 280 Billion and expenses were ₡ 475 Billion.

January earnings were 9% more favorable that those recorded for the same month

in 2013, and total monthly expenses, including interests grew by 1.3% regarding

January of last year.

Within the current expenses, the line item for remuneration advanced by 11% in

relation to January of last year, while interest payment fell by 6.3%.

This reduced expense from the interest is explained by the fact that in January of

2013 bonds were still circulating and financial obligations had very high rates during

2012.

Monthly capital expenses fell by 75% in comparison to last year, but only represent

1.9% of the total expenditure.


8

Additional Information

Economic Activity Index by Sector Interannual variation


Activity Index for the Manufacturing and Construction Sector Interannual variation



8

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Índice de Actividad Económica por Sectores Variación Interanual

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Índice de Actividad del Sector Manufactura y Construcción Variación Interanual

!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%&$'!()*+,-*./0%!1-,1/*!.,%!+*2$!*!3*&,2!3$)!45567!

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!"!#$% &!'#$% ()*#$% )'*#$% ()+#$% ,-"#$% ,-.#$% )/0#$% 1!2#$% 034#$% "05#$% 673#$%8!340* 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9Servicios de Intermediación Financiera Indirectos 8.97% 8.77% 8.83% 9.61% 10.88% 11.08% 10.36% 10.02% 9.97% 10.67% 10.96% 9.53%Transporte, Almacenamiento y Comunicaciones 1.18% 1.45% 1.97% 2.37% 2.73% 3.15% 3.67% 4.36% 5.02% 5.81% 6.86% 7.59%Servicios Financieros y Seguros 6.96% 6.79% 6.94% 7.42% 7.65% 7.59% 7.54% 7.63% 7.75% 7.81% 7.73% 7.39%Industria manufacturera 0.54% -0.44% -0.76% 0.05% 2.13% 4.83% 7.20% 9.25% 10.35% 9.57% 7.29% 5.54%Hoteles 3.43% 3.37% 3.34% 3.33% 3.36% 3.42% 3.52% 3.69% 3.90% 4.16% 4.47% 4.80%Otros Servicios Prestados a Empresas 6.65% 5.87% 5.75% 6.04% 6.05% 5.46% 4.80% 4.79% 5.03% 4.73% 4.37% 4.49%IMAE con IEAT, Tendencia Ciclo 2.64% 2.15% 1.99% 2.09% 2.67% 3.46% 4.08% 4.65% 4.97% 4.86% 4.35% 3.98%Comercio 3.92% 3.90% 3.87% 3.78% 3.74% 3.71% 3.63% 3.53% 3.46% 3.46% 3.49% 3.53%Resto de Industrias 3.33% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.31% 3.31% 3.31% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%Agricultura, silvicultura y pesca 1.00% 0.21% -0.25% -0.43% -0.33% -0.11% 0.06% 0.20% 0.49% 0.94% 1.40% 1.93%Extracción de Minas y Canteras 5.29% 4.88% 4.46% 3.99% 3.51% 3.05% 2.66% 2.33% 2.06% 1.85% 1.68% 1.55%Construcción 4.31% 4.06% 3.50% 2.80% 2.46% 2.27% 1.96% 1.70% 1.47% 1.31% 1.29% 1.20%Electricidad y Agua 2.83% 1.79% 1.00% 0.82% 0.70% 0.33% 0.16% 0.27% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.40%

:;<=>?=@A=@B:<>B:BCD !"#$% !"&'% &"((% !")(% !"#*% +"$#% $"),% $"#'% $"(*% $",#% $"+'% +"(,%


8

!"#$%&'()*"+',)()$"'-+

Índice de Actividad Económica por Sectores Variación Interanual

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Índice de Actividad del Sector Manufactura y Construcción Variación Interanual

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!"!#$% &!'#$% ()*#$% )'*#$% ()+#$% ,-"#$% ,-.#$% )/0#$% 1!2#$% 034#$% "05#$% 673#$%8!340* 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9Servicios de Intermediación Financiera Indirectos 8.97% 8.77% 8.83% 9.61% 10.88% 11.08% 10.36% 10.02% 9.97% 10.67% 10.96% 9.53%Transporte, Almacenamiento y Comunicaciones 1.18% 1.45% 1.97% 2.37% 2.73% 3.15% 3.67% 4.36% 5.02% 5.81% 6.86% 7.59%Servicios Financieros y Seguros 6.96% 6.79% 6.94% 7.42% 7.65% 7.59% 7.54% 7.63% 7.75% 7.81% 7.73% 7.39%Industria manufacturera 0.54% -0.44% -0.76% 0.05% 2.13% 4.83% 7.20% 9.25% 10.35% 9.57% 7.29% 5.54%Hoteles 3.43% 3.37% 3.34% 3.33% 3.36% 3.42% 3.52% 3.69% 3.90% 4.16% 4.47% 4.80%Otros Servicios Prestados a Empresas 6.65% 5.87% 5.75% 6.04% 6.05% 5.46% 4.80% 4.79% 5.03% 4.73% 4.37% 4.49%IMAE con IEAT, Tendencia Ciclo 2.64% 2.15% 1.99% 2.09% 2.67% 3.46% 4.08% 4.65% 4.97% 4.86% 4.35% 3.98%Comercio 3.92% 3.90% 3.87% 3.78% 3.74% 3.71% 3.63% 3.53% 3.46% 3.46% 3.49% 3.53%Resto de Industrias 3.33% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.31% 3.31% 3.31% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%Agricultura, silvicultura y pesca 1.00% 0.21% -0.25% -0.43% -0.33% -0.11% 0.06% 0.20% 0.49% 0.94% 1.40% 1.93%Extracción de Minas y Canteras 5.29% 4.88% 4.46% 3.99% 3.51% 3.05% 2.66% 2.33% 2.06% 1.85% 1.68% 1.55%Construcción 4.31% 4.06% 3.50% 2.80% 2.46% 2.27% 1.96% 1.70% 1.47% 1.31% 1.29% 1.20%Electricidad y Agua 2.83% 1.79% 1.00% 0.82% 0.70% 0.33% 0.16% 0.27% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.40%

:;<=>?=@A=@B:<>B:BCD !"#$% !"&'% &"((% !")(% !"#*% +"$#% $"),% $"#'% $"(*% $",#% $"+'% +"(,%

Indirectly measured Financial Mediation Services Transportation, Storage and Communication

Finance and Insurance Services

Other services Rendered to Companies

Mining and Quarry Material Exploitation

Commerce

Construction

Hotels

Remaining Industries Agriculture, Silviculture and Fishing

Power and Water

IMAE with IEAT, Cycle Trend

Manufacturing Industry

IMAE CYCLE TREND

Manufacturing Industry Construction


9

12-month Expected Inflation BCCR expectations survey


Secondary Market Yields

External Debt Instruments

Source: BNV. March 6, 2014.


9

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Expectativas de inflación 12 meses Encuesta de expectativas del BCCR

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Rendimientos Mercado Secundario

Instrumentos Deuda Externa

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Instrumentos Deuda Interna

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0.)123&4+)(-&


9

!

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Expectativas de inflación 12 meses Encuesta de expectativas del BCCR

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Rendimientos Mercado Secundario

Instrumentos Deuda Externa

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Instrumentos Deuda Interna

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12-month inflation

Price Bond Yield

Government $ Bonds


10

Internal Debt Instruments

Ministry of Finance

Fixed Rate Instruments in Dollars



10

Ministerio de Hacienda

Instrumentos tasa fija dólares

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Ministerio de Hacienda Instrumentos tasa fija colones

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5785583456 544+419 3+6693484:8345: 545+;:9 <+5593;84:8345: 54:+<49 <+5693:8558345: 543+349 <+3;93:84:83451 541+=:9 <+1193684:8345; 7=+<49 6+3:9<484:8345= 545+449 6+;793;84:83434 71+649 :+:395:84183434 55=+:=9 :+6=93:84:83433 7=+:49 :+;:9318558343: 73+<49 :+7=93184:8343; 544+;49 :+7493:84:834<< =7+749 :+7:9

!0123&4+)(-&

!"#$%& '$()* +,-./& 0-*1/2/-*#&

5784<83456 =+3=9 544+549 :+<693184<83456 5=+739 544+;79 6+3=93684783456 ;+=49 545+<39 :+<393=8458345: =+:59 545+7<9 1+3:9368418345: 7+119 54<+7:9 1+6<93<8478345: 54+:=9 54:+169 1+1=93<84<83451 =+;69 543+1:9 ;+<393384183451 54+:=9 541+3=9 ;+:693=84783451 5<+449 553+=;9 ;+<793585383451 1+1;9 7;+<69 ;+;693384<8345; ;+:79 77+669 ;+=493=8418345; 7+=79 54:+749 ;+=<93;8478345; 55+469 54=+=69 =+539368458345= =+;69 545+=49 =+5793=84<8345= 55+5<9 547+7:9 =+349318478345= ;+=39 7=+6=9 =+3<93;84<83457 7+349 543+:49 =+:=93:84<83434 ;+:79 7<+;:9 =+7:93<85383434 =+7;9 77+169 7+4693784183433 7+6<9 7;+159 7+=:93585383433 55+:49 54=+=;9 7+7193=8418343< 54+539 544+;59 54+4493=8418343= =+:59 =7+:49 7+=7935847834<< =+:59 =;+<=9 7+779

!023&4+)(-&

Price Bond Yield Government $ Ex Rate


11

Ministry of Finance

Fixed Rate Instruments in Colones



10

Ministerio de Hacienda

Instrumentos tasa fija dólares

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Ministerio de Hacienda Instrumentos tasa fija colones

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5785583456 544+419 3+6693484:8345: 545+;:9 <+5593;84:8345: 54:+<49 <+5693:8558345: 543+349 <+3;93:84:83451 541+=:9 <+1193684:8345; 7=+<49 6+3:9<484:8345= 545+449 6+;793;84:83434 71+649 :+:395:84183434 55=+:=9 :+6=93:84:83433 7=+:49 :+;:9318558343: 73+<49 :+7=93184:8343; 544+;49 :+7493:84:834<< =7+749 :+7:9

!0123&4+)(-&

!"#$%& '$()* +,-./& 0-*1/2/-*#&

5784<83456 =+3=9 544+549 :+<693184<83456 5=+739 544+;79 6+3=93684783456 ;+=49 545+<39 :+<393=8458345: =+:59 545+7<9 1+3:9368418345: 7+119 54<+7:9 1+6<93<8478345: 54+:=9 54:+169 1+1=93<84<83451 =+;69 543+1:9 ;+<393384183451 54+:=9 541+3=9 ;+:693=84783451 5<+449 553+=;9 ;+<793585383451 1+1;9 7;+<69 ;+;693384<8345; ;+:79 77+669 ;+=493=8418345; 7+=79 54:+749 ;+=<93;8478345; 55+469 54=+=69 =+539368458345= =+;69 545+=49 =+5793=84<8345= 55+5<9 547+7:9 =+349318478345= ;+=39 7=+6=9 =+3<93;84<83457 7+349 543+:49 =+:=93:84<83434 ;+:79 7<+;:9 =+7:93<85383434 =+7;9 77+169 7+4693784183433 7+6<9 7;+159 7+=:93585383433 55+:49 54=+=;9 7+7193=8418343< 54+539 544+;59 54+4493=8418343= =+:59 =7+:49 7+=7935847834<< =+:59 =;+<=9 7+779

!023&4+)(-&

Price Bond Yield Government Ex Rate

Coupon

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