Economic Update

Idaho Workforce Development

Council MeetingMarch 8, 2012

Bob UhlenkottChief Research Officer

Idaho Department of Labor

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Actual GDP 3.3% Annual Growth 1.3% Annual Growth

Bureau of Economic Analysis - October 2011

3.3%

1.3%$55.4 Billion

Idaho Gross Domestic Product

2013

2016

$60 Billion

Job Creation With Health Benefits

To reach the 40,000 job creation metric Idaho needs annualized job growth rates of around 1.5 percent. And to reach the health insurance metric around 1.2 percent annualized growth rates over four years.

Measure - “Create 40,000 jobs with at least two-thirds with $12.00 or better wage rates with health benefits by 2015.”

Idaho’s Fringe Benefits Survey found that around 78 percent of employees that were making at least $12.00 per hour were offered medical insurance in 2011.

Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate19

7819

7819

7919

8019

8119

8119

8219

8319

8419

8419

8519

8619

8719

8719

8819

8919

9019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9319

9419

9519

9619

9619

9719

9819

9919

9920

0020

0120

0220

0220

0320

0420

0520

0520

0620

0720

0820

0820

0920

1020

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Perc

ent

Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the US Department of Labor - April 2012.

7.9 %8.2 %

March 2012

(9.6%) Previous RecordDec-1982 to Feb-1983

(2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007

Alternative Unemployment Measures

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6

United States 5.1 5 8.7 9.3 10.2 15.6

Alaska 2.9 4 7.6 8.1 9.1 13.5

Arizona 5.3 4.9 9.1 9.7 10.7 17.1

California 6.9 6.8 11.5 12.2 13.3 20.8

Colorado 4.6 5 8.1 8.4 9.3 14.7

Idaho 4 4.7 8.3 8.7 9.6 16.3

Montana 2.9 4.1 6.9 7.2 8.1 14.9

Nebraska 1.8 2.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 9.1

Nevada 8.3 8 12.7 13.7 15.2 22.3

North Dakota 1.1 1.5 3.5 3.6 4.1 6.3

Oregon 4.9 5.5 9.2 9.6 10.7 17.2

Utah 3 3.8 6.6 6.9 7.6 12.6

Washington 4.9 5.1 9 9.5 10.8 17.6

Wyoming 2.2 2.8 5.8 6 6.8 10

State

Measure (Percent)U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6

United States 5.1 5 8.7 9.3 10.2 15.6

Alaska 2.9 4 7.6 8.1 9.1 13.5

Arizona 5.3 4.9 9.1 9.7 10.7 17.1

California 6.9 6.8 11.5 12.2 13.3 20.8

Colorado 4.6 5 8.1 8.4 9.3 14.7

Idaho 4 4.7 8.3 8.7 9.6 16.3

Montana 2.9 4.1 6.9 7.2 8.1 14.9

Nebraska 1.8 2.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 9.1

Nevada 8.3 8 12.7 13.7 15.2 22.3

North Dakota 1.1 1.5 3.5 3.6 4.1 6.3

Oregon 4.9 5.5 9.2 9.6 10.7 17.2

Utah 3 3.8 6.6 6.9 7.6 12.6

Washington 4.9 5.1 9 9.5 10.8 17.6

Wyoming 2.2 2.8 5.8 6 6.8 10

State

Measure (Percent)

Conference Board Data (October 2011)

5/1/2

007

7/1/2

007

9/1/2

007

11/1/2

007

1/1/2

008

3/1/2

008

5/1/2

008

7/1/2

008

9/1/2

008

11/1/2

008

1/1/2

009

3/1/2

009

5/1/2

009

7/1/2

009

9/1/2

009

11/1/2

009

1/1/2

010

3/1/2

010

5/1/2

010

7/1/2

010

9/1/2

010

11/1/2

010

1/1/2

011

3/1/2

011

5/1/2

011

7/1/2

011

9/1/2

01110,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Help Wanted Online – September 2011

October Mtg.

Conference Board Data (March 2012)

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

5/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

9/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

9/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

1/1/

2012

3/1/

2012

Help Wanted Online - The Conference Board March 2012

Idaho New Hire Counts by Month

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average

National Employment Performance 1st Qtr. 2011

October Mtg.

National Employment Y-o-Y 2nd Qtr. 2011

National Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011

-9.1%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2011

-5.6%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011

Location Quotient for Construction 3rd Qtr. 2011

Employment Outlook

JanMar

May JulSep

Nov JanMar

May JulSep

Nov JanMar

May JulSep

Nov JanMar

May Jul-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00% Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2011Duration

Year

-to-

Year

% C

hang

e

Idaho Department of Labor - October 2011

October Mtg.

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Yea

r-to

-Yea

r %

Cha

nge

Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During the Great Recession

Source: Idaho Department of Labor for the Workforce DevelopmentCouncil Meeting - May 2012

When will Idaho recover to pre-recession levels?

Workforce Information Planning 2012/2013

Formula Grant - $338,014. 2012/2013 Workforce Information Plan is due June

15, 2012. This is your plan and needs to be endorsed by the

Workforce Development Council.

Core Deliverables: Populate the WIDb database Produce industry and occupational employment projections Develop and maintain web delivery of Labor Market Information Publish auxiliary LMI research and consult with the Workforce

Development Council

Education and Training Pay!

Thank You!Bob Uhlenkott

Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov208.332.3570 ext. 3217