25 JAN 14

Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance,

and Economic Crisis

By: Ryan Scott Welch

Please Silence All Electronic Devices

Confirmation Bias Cognitive Dissonance Economic Indicators Possible Outcomes

War-gaming Scenarios Timeline Enemy Situation Friendly Situation Responses Preparations Questions

Agenda

Confirmation Bias

“If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence.” – Bertrand Russell

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias

Crop Circles It is blindingly obvious to most people that crop circles were likely to

be man-made when they first starting showing up. Every other explanation – lay lines, alien spacecraft, plasma vortices,

ball lightning – is bologna. The entire field of “cereology” is pseudoscience.

But serious journalists working for Science Magazine, and for a Channel 4 documentary team, swallowed the argument of the cereologists that it was highly implausible that crop circles were all man-made.

A Channel 4 team did the obvious thing – they got a group of students to make some crop circles and then asked the cereologist if they were “genuine” or “hoaxed” – ie, man made. He assured them they could not have been made by people. So they told him they had been made the night before. The man was poleaxed. It made great television. Yet the producer ended the segment of the program by taking the cereologist’s side: “of course, not all crop circles are hoaxes”. What? The same thing happened when Doug Bower and Dave Chorley confessed to having started the whole craze; everybody just went on believing. They still do.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation BiasNot man made, really?

Confirmation Bias in psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to errors of interpretation.

It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference toward the confirmation of an already held belief.

This is a phenomenon where decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

As such, it can be thought of as a form of selection bias in collecting evidence.

Confirmation Bias

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions

A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620–564 BCE). In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one desires something, finds it unattainable (OR TOO DIFFICULT), and reduces one's dissonance by criticizing it.

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators As fears grow of an imminent debt default by Greece world

leaders have urged Europe to prevent the euro area debt crisis from spiraling out of control.

The darkening in the global economic outlook, largely due to Europe's debt crisis, has tainted the G-20 presidency of French leader Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy told reporters: "We are very conscious that France and Germany have a particular responsibility to stabilize the euro. We need to deliver a response that is sustainable and comprehensive.“

“There is a high risk that this crisis further escalates and broadens,” German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the “debt crisis is a fight for the economic and political future of Europe.”

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators South African finance minister Pravin Gordhan said Friday the

resources in the EFSF and the International Monetary Fund are not adequate.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned last month that the fund's current lending ability, "pales in comparison" to potential lending needs if the euro zone crisis worsens.

China's Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday rising protectionism is damaging the global economy. "The shadow of an international financial crisis could be removed ... only if we properly handle international trade friction in a more rational way," he said.

Lukashenko has run out of money and he is now selling fear to an angry and hungry population," Belarus' first post-Soviet leader, Stanislav Shushkevich, told The Associated Press on Friday. The national currency, the ruble, has collapsed and inflation is running at a staggering 60 percent.

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

U.S. gross domestic product growth is weak and growing weaker. The Federal Reserve's latest regional survey showed even more bad news, with growth slowdowns hitting eight of the country's 12 regions.

The U6 U.S. unemployment rate is now at 13.1 percent, with 102 million Americans out of work. The official rate however is 6.7% but this number is misleading because, due to the weakening economy, many long-term unemployed are only working part-time, or have given up searches and are no longer being counted.

Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly among CEOs, those closest to the ups and downs of the American economic engine. Confidence is critical in the U.S. economy where two-thirds of economic activity comes from consumer spending.

The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as people who buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains weak. Home prices in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down almost 50 percent since the boom days of 2005-2006.

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators In July, S&P downgraded the United States' debt rating. The

S&P said “the United States needed to not only raise the debt ceiling, but also develop a ‘credible’ plan to tackle the nation's long-term debt.”

The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The federal government closed out fiscal year 2011 with an estimated deficit of $1.3 trillion, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. It was the third straight year that the deficit exceeded $1 trillion.

The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as people who buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains weak. Home prices in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down almost 50 percent since the boom days of 2005-2006.

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

I think there is a risk that the U.S. debt default may happen," the adviser, Li Daokui, said at the time. "The result will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire.”

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the crisis was slowing economic growth in Europe, which he said did represent a threat to the U.S. economy.

The Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that US economic recovery is "close to faltering", and that a "disorderly" default in the Greek debt would have a serious impact.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said, “the size of the problem coming from Europe — I don't think it could be overestimated. I think it's very dangerous.”

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

The world's second-richest man, Warren Buffett, who is known as "the sage of Omaha", said that the rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy . He also said that “derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.”

Former French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as "financial AIDS".

Christopher Cox, the head of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission said that, “derivatives are the villains in the current collapse of the global financial system.”

Derivatives

Derivatives

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit ...

She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit .

Derivatives

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.

Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. 

He sees no reason for any undue concern because he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral!

Derivatives

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.

These "securities" then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as "AAA Secured Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb - and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

Derivatives

One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons. But, being unemployed alcoholics -- they cannot pay back their drinking debts. 

Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

Derivatives

The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities.

They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

Derivatives

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%.

Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers. 

Now do you understand?

Derivatives

Derivatives

"Today there is a horrific derivatives bubble that threatens to destroy not only the U.S. economy but the entire world financial system as well.

Basically, derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends upon or is derived from the price of something else. A derivative has no underlying value of its own. It is essentially a side bet. Originally, derivatives were mostly used to hedge risk and to offset the possibility of taking losses. But today it has gone way, way beyond that. Today the world financial system has become a gigantic casino where insanely large bets are made on anything and everything that you can possibly imagine. The derivatives market is almost entirely unregulated and in recent years it has ballooned to such enormous proportions that it is almost hard to believe. Today, the worldwide derivatives market is approximately 20 times the size of the entire global economy.

Because derivatives are so unregulated, nobody knows for certain exactly what the total value of all the derivatives worldwide is, but low estimates put it around 600 trillion dollars and high estimates put it at around 1.5 quadrillion dollars.

Derivatives

Derivatives

Do you know how large one quadrillion is? 1,000,000,000,000,000. Counting at one dollar per second, it would take 32 million years to count to one quadrillion. To put that in perspective, the gross domestic product of the United States is only about 15 trillion dollars and 1.5 quadrillion is 100 times that. So when you are talking about 1.5 quadrillion dollars, you are talking about an amount of money that is almost inconceivable. So what is going to happen when this insanely large derivatives bubble pops?

Well, the truth is that the danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them "financial weapons of mass destruction". It would be hard to understate the financial devastation that we could potentially be facing. A number of years back, French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as "financial AIDS". The reality is that when this bubble pops there won't be enough money in the entire world to fix it. But ignorance is bliss, and most people simply do not understand these complex financial instruments enough to be worried about them. Unfortunately, just because most of us do not understand the danger does not mean that the danger has been eliminated.

Derivatives

Derivatives

The hedge-fund and derivatives markets are so highly complex and technical that even many top economists and investment-banking professionals don't fully understand them. Moreover, both the hedge-fund and the derivatives markets are almost totally unregulated, either by the U.S. government or by any other government worldwide.

Most Americans don't realize it, but derivatives played a major role in the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. Do you remember how AIG was constantly in the news for a while there? Well, they weren't in financial trouble because they had written a bunch of bad insurance policies. What had happened is that a subsidiary of AIG had lost more than $18 billion on Credit Default Swaps (derivatives) it had written, and additional losses from derivatives were on the way which could have caused the complete collapse of the insurance giant. So the U.S. government stepped in and bailed them out - all at U.S. taxpayer expense of course.

But the AIG incident was actually quite small compared to what could be coming. The derivatives market has become so monolithic that even a relatively minor imbalance in the global economy could set off a chain reaction that would have devastating consequences. In his recent article on derivatives, Webster Tarpley described the central role that derivatives now play in our financial system...

Derivatives

Derivatives

Far from being some arcane or marginal activity, financial derivatives have come to represent the principal business of the financier oligarchy in Wall Street, the City of London, Frankfurt, and other money centers. A concerted effort has been made by politicians and the news media to hide and camouflage the central role played by derivative speculation in the economic disasters of recent years. Journalists and public relations types have done everything possible to avoid even mentioning derivatives, coining phrases like “toxic assets,” “exotic instruments,” and – most notably – “troubled assets,” as in Troubled Assets Relief Program or TARP, aka the monstrous $800 billion bailout of Wall Street speculators which was enacted in October 2008 with the support of Bush, Henry Paulson, John McCain, Sarah Palin, and the Obama Democrats.

One day some event will happen which will cause a sudden shift in world financial markets and trillions of dollars of losses in derivatives will create a tsunami that will bring the entire house of cards down. All of the money in the world will not be enough to bail out the financial system when that day arrives. Soon enough we will all pay the price, and when that disastrous day comes, most Americans will still not understand what is happening.- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21764.html

Derivatives

The $1.5 QUADRILLION Derivatives Bubble

That's $1,500,000,000,000

Derivatives

Unless this derivatives problem is resolved, there is no way the world economy is not headed towards a massive 20-30 years Great Depression.

The current estimated US$14 Trillion of bailout, guarantees, loans… by the US government will not revive the economy. It is simply trying to paper over the $1.5 Quadrillion (1000 Trillion) derivatives problem. No amount of money can paper over this financial black hole.

Derivatives

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

The global economy is rapidly descending into the chaos of a Second World Economic Depression of catastrophic proportions.  In the year since the collapse of Bear Stearns, we have moved toward the disintegration of the entire globalized world financial system, based on the residual status of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and expressed through the banking hegemony of London, New York, and the US-UK controlled international lending institutions like the International Monetary fund and the World Bank.  This is a breakdown crisis of world civilization, prepared over decades by the folly of deindustrialization and the illusions of a postindustrial society, ….. If current policies are maintained, we face the acute danger of a terminal dollar disintegration and world hyperinflation. 

Economic Indicators

1 – Back in the 1930s, tens of millions of Americans lived on farms or knew how to grow their own food.  Today the vast majority of Americans are totally dependent on the system for even their most basic needs.

2 – A vast horde of Baby Boomers is expecting to retire, and the “Social Security trust fund” has nothing but 2.5 trillion dollars of government IOUs in it.  According to an official U.S. government report, rapidly growing interest costs on the U.S. national debt together with spending on major entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb approximately 92 cents of every dollar of federal revenue by the year 2019.  This is a financial tsunami the likes of which Americans back in the 1930s could never have even dreamed of.

3 – American workers never had to compete for jobs with workers on the other side of the world back in the 1930s.  But today, millions upon millions of our jobs have been “outsourced” to China, India and a vast array of third world nations where desperate workers are more than happy to slave away for big global corporations for less than a dollar an hour.  How in the world are American workers supposed to compete with that?

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

4 – Back in the 1930s, there was nothing like the gigantic derivatives bubble that hangs over us today.  The total value of all derivatives worldwide is estimated to be somewhere between 600 trillion and 1.5 quadrillion dollars.  The danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them “financial weapons of mass destruction”.  When this bubble pops there won’t be enough money in the entire world to fix it.

5 – During the Great Depression, the United States economy was relatively self-contained.  But today we truly do live in a global economy.  Unfortunately that means that a severe economic crisis in one part of the world is going to affect us as well.  Right now, the United States is far from alone in dealing with a massive debt crisis.  Greece, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal and a number of other European nations are in real danger of actually defaulting on their debts.  Japan (the third biggest economy in the world) is on the verge of complete and total economic collapse.  So what happens to the U.S. economy when the dominoes start to fall?

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

Dollar Collapse Causes Underlying Economic Weakness Viable Alternative: Gold or New Currency

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested creating“ a new reserve currency" to replace the dollar. Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also proposed a new reserve currency, one "disconnected from individual nations." Even Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said he's "open" to the idea.

Possible Outcomes

Possible Outcomes

Triggering EventA slight but sudden rise in the

price of a necessary commodity which will cause all commodities to rise.

Internal instability/riots (Occupy movement)

Terrorist attackNatural disaster

Possible Outcomes

Occupy Riots

ResultsHyperinflation - 95% of all

historic cases of hyperinflation it begins during either a deflationary depression or deep deflationary recession

Possible Outcomes

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the

currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It’s not that they want more money — they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency.

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation

InstancesGermany 1920-1923 3.25 million percentRussia 1921-1924 213 percentAustria 1921-1922 134 percentPoland 1922-1924 275 percent Hungary 1922-1924 98 percentGreece 1943-1944 8.55 billion percentHungary 1945-1946 4.19 quintillion

percent

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation

Instances con’tArgentina 1984-1997 3,086 percentBrazil 1980-1994 30,377 percentBolivia 1980-1994 14,700 percentPeru 1981-1989 3,000 percent Yugoslavia 1993-1994 5 quadrillion percentZaire 1988-1997 24,000 percent

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation

As the government becomes more desperate for cash, they will increase the flow of paper money (fiat currency) until the entire financial system becomes insoluble. As the American dollar weakens, foreign countries will sell their bonds (or not renew the purchase of their treasury bills) and flood the market with devalued currency. You can expect inflation like the U.S. has never experienced. The cost of items will skyrocket and your wages will stay the same (or you will be laid off). Those in power will blame the free market and capitalism but the real cause of the fall will be their years of failed economic policies.

Hyperinflation

The amount of cash injected to save the country has a real possibility of destabilizing the US currency and increases the chance of total collapse.

Money will be used for fuel since buying fuel would take more money than the heat it would provide.

A pile of devalued dollars will be needed to buy basic items.

Food prices will increase substantially and shortages will be common. Luxuries like chocolate, butter, and fresh fruit year round won't be available.

Gas prices and other commodities will skyrocket. Because diesel fuel has higher demand on the world market it will be much more expensive than regular unleaded gasoline.

Much of the nation will be unemployed with unemployment rates in the high 20-30% range. Because of budget problems federal and state governments will not be able to fund unemployment benefits. Food stamps and other welfare programs will be increasingly hard to fund and maintain.

Businesses will close adding to the unemployment and shortage problems. Investment for new businesses will not occur during times of hyperinflation.

Roads will deteriorate and utilities will not work dependably. Years of poor budgeting and excess spending will leave cities and states will no money for basic services. Extended black outs and brown outs will be common.

Foreclosures will rise as families struggle to make ends meet. People moving to find work will be common.

Depression

Possible Outcomes

Economic Recovery

Possible Outcomes

When asked about the timing of hyperinflation in the United States John Williams of Shadowstats stated, “That’s the type of thing that could happen at any time, all of the fundamentals are in place.  I do think we’re going to have a dollar crisis.  I can’t give you the precise timing on it, but circumstances are negative for the dollar in terms of relative political stability.  When you look at our government here we can’t control the fiscal conditions.  Our trade deficit is continuing to deteriorate, that’s a negative for the dollar, inflation is rising on a relative basis, that’s a negative for the dollar.

The Fed although it is officially ending QE2, most likely is going to come back with a QE3 and that will debase the dollar and if we are going to debase the dollar the rest of the world generally is not going to want to hold it.”

When asked how quickly could we see a dollar collapse Williams responded, “It could happen very quickly, but they (the Fed) will try to forestall it as much as they can.  When you do get a real panic it may not be containable.  What we’re now seeing in the pickup in inflation here eventually will be seen as the beginnings of it.”

Timeline

Enemy Situation

MarxistsAnarchistsSocialists JihadistsGangsDrug Lord Organizations

Friendly Forces

FamilyChurchNeighbors Local CommunityAssociationsTea Party or other groups Local Emergency Response

Teams

Stay Calm Find Your Family at a Rally Point 72 Hour Kit Execute Movement Plan Make Alliances Plan Self Defense Reduce Waste Grow Crops Plan to Secure Long Term Food Supply

Responses

How to overcome and prepare for hyperinflation. The next depression will be 20 to 30 years and make the

first depression look like a picnic.  Hyperinflation will be the beginning and the true economic impact will take a very long time to correct.  These steps will help you weather the economic storm.

Pay off your debt – As prices increase keeping up with payments will be extremely difficult.  Too much debt will force you to lose your home, vehicles, and you will struggle to make ends meet.  You will need all the money you make just to buy food.  Avoid large homes, credit card debt, excess student loans,  and new car purchases.

Preparations

Buy tangible goods – While gold and silver play a role in shifting to a new currency don’t overlook things you can use in the shorterm.  Barter will be popular again and having long term food storage,  kerosene, medical supplies, seeds, and luxuries like toilet paper or chocolate can help you when there are shortages.   In the mid term gold and silver will be very important but don’t over look the basics of daily life.

Invest in things that are inflation resistant – Invest in economic sectors that can raise their prices or adjust their value as the prices increase.  Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities (like oil and metals), and real estate are generally safe bets to overcome inflation.  Make sure your loans have fixed interest rates.  Expect to pay extremely high interest rates (in the 20% range) and expect to put much larger down payments down.

Preparations

Strengthen the family – Family ties and local communities/churches will help those that are struggling (sorry government programs will not be there to help; think Katrina).    Those on fixed income or welfare will be the hardest hit by economic problems.  The traditional family unit has stood the test of time for good reason.  Grandma and grandpa will be moving in and you might need to take care of your siblings too.

Learn how to grow food – Plant a garden and learn how to preserve food.  If possible raise chickens for eggs and goats or cows for milk.  Canning fruits and vegetables will be common.  Stock your root cellar.  Learn how to make your soil healthy and nutrient rich without buying fertilizer (e.g. learn how to compost).  Avoid hybrid seeds because after the first crop the next batch of seeds will provide inferior and low yield crops.  Buy heirloom seeds and plant them.  Harvest seeds for next year.

Preparations

Buy bulk food and learn how to use it – Start using wheat by grinding it and baking with it.  Find recipes that call for use of basic stable grains like rice, beans, wheat, and lentils.

Get all the education you can – Finish your degree, learn new skills, get certificates in your area of expertise.  The job market will be extremely competitive and all the extra skills you have will give you the edge.

Diversify your income – Start side businesses, turn your hobbies into income, or consider rental property. Try to get income from as many different sources as possible.

Preparations

Learn to do more with less - This requires some creative thinking when shopping, using what you have, and throwing things away.  Many times you don’t need something new, you need to use something you already have.  Instead of throwing something away consider repairing it or re-purposing it as something else (e.g. using old jeans to make a quilt).  Buying quality products instead of cheap Chinese crap.  You’ll need things to last longer.  Start now by buying quality instead of cheap quantity.

Stay positive – Your mindset and your positive attitude will be your biggest asset.  While these will be trying times you can still choose what makes you truly happy.  If you are attached to material objects start now  by weening your way off new technology, a home that’s too big, and cars you can’t afford.  Learn to enjoy the simple things in life and the company of the people you love.

THINGS TO AVOID – Avoid Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS), Bonds, and Debt

Preparations

BUY FARM LANDGROW YOUR OWN FOOD. LIVE NEAR PEOPLE AND BEGIN TO MAKE ALLIANCES OF SKILLS (BARTER) LIVE NEAR FARM LAND

ELECTRONICS FREEPAPER COPIES OF IMPORTANT DOCUMENTSKNOW WHERE YOUR DEEDS ARE. TAKE THEM IN EMERGENCY

BUY A VEHICLE- CONSIDER SOMETHING PRIOR TO 1979 FIX YOURSELF

COLLEGE/SCHOOLAPPRENTICESHIPS ARE THE FUTURE.DISCUSS THE VALUE OF SCHOOL FOR WHAT YOU CAN EARN.DO NOT LOOK FOR LABELS THEY WILL BECOME MEANINGLESS (YALE)FIND OTHER FORMS OF SCHOOL. ON LINE.DEMAND MERIT FROM SCHOOL AND STUDENT OR PULL YOUR TIME/ $EDUCATE YOURSELF AT ALL TIMES. ALWAYS READ.HAVE A HARD COPY OF IMPORTANT BOOKS AND DOCUMENTSLEARN OLD AND OR LOST PRACTICES.MENDING/CANNING/FARMINGLEARN TO FIX AN ENGINERE-LEARN READING A MAPKNOW THE NEWS. LIFE CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.BE ABLE TO DEFEND YOUR POSITIONS BY KNOWING THE OTHER SIDE

Preparations

TRADITIONSPRESERVE WHAT IS IMPORTANT. SHED ALL OTHERS. CONSERVE ANDPRESERVE. RECLAIM AND RESTORE.

MONEY -GOLD, FOOD, CIGARETTES, LIQUOR, SUGAR, AMMUNITION, GUNS, SEEDS,SKILLS (BARTER) KNOWLEDGEHAVE 30 DAYS CASH ON HANDBUY A HOUSESTOP ALL EXCESS SPENDING. BUY QUALITY ONLY. FORGET FASHION ONLYMEASURE TWICE – CUT ONCE. DO NOT WASTE.CONSIDER A FUEL EFFICIENT – SUV/TRUCK

Preparations

LOCATIONLIVE NEAR LIKE MINDED PEOPLE. TEXAS, MOUNTAINS OR WHERE GOD STILL PLAYS A ROLE IN REAL LIFEIF YOU CANNOT MOVE (NO PLACE WILL BE UNTOUCHED) CREATE NETWORK

BUSINESS/WORKBE THE BEST YOU CAN BE. BE THE ONE EMPLOYEE NO ONE CAN FIRESMALL BIZ – BE THE PRODUCT OR SERVICE NO ONE CAN CANCELCONSERVE AND PRESERVELEARN FROM THE DEPRESSION -ADVERTISE WHEN NO ONE ELSE ISSTAY IN BUSINESS BUT DOWNSIZE AND PRESERVE (ARCH)HONESTY, INTEGRITY AND CHARITY.

BE GEORGE BAILEYSPIT YOURSELF OUT OF THE SYSTEM. TURN UPSIDE DOWN NOWPUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR HEART ISDO BUSINESS IN SYMBIOTIC WAYS – WE NEED EACH OTHERDO NOT TRY TO PUT OTHERS OUT OF BUSINESS, LET THEM DO IT.GIMBLES AND MACYSNEVER BE THE SMARTEST MAN IN THE ROOMTAKE CARE OF YOUR EMPLOYEES THE BEST YOU CAN.TAKE LESS AND GIVE MOREREAD FRANKLIN AND WASHINGTON

Preparations

LIFEDO NOT PLAN YOUR LIFE AND THEN MOVE. PLAN, LISTEN AND OBEYPRACTICE AT LEAST FRANKLINS AMERICAN RELIGIONSERVEHONOR ALL OF YOUR OBLIGATIONSPRESERVE – FOOD, TIME, MONEY, ENERGYTEACH YOUR CHILDREN THE BASICS. VALUES/PRINCIPLES

DO WITH LESS NOW. LESS OF A SHOCK IF IT COMES LATERSERVE/SHAREJOIN A 9.12 GROUP. LINK ON LINE. PHONE AND LOCATIONSHAVE A MEETING PLACE ESTABLISHED FOR FAMILYREAD THE BIBLEHAVE A GUN AND KNOW HOW TO SHOOT IT.RESOLVE THOSE ISSUES THAT ARE HOLDING YOU BACKSTOP ALL BEHAVIOR THAT DOES NOT EXPAND YOU OR OTHERS INTO GOODMAKE AMENDS FOR WHAT YOU HAVE DONEFIND PEACE AND GET TO WORKTEACH CHILDREN WORK ETHICTOLERATE NOTHING THAT YOU FEEL IS WRONG BY REMAINING SILENTLET YOUR CHILDREN SEE YOU STANDBE HONORABLE IN ALL OF YOUR DEALINGSUNDERSTAND THAT ANGER IS A PART OF LIFE BUT NEVER FEED ITTHE FIRST LOOK IS NOT A PROBLEM. IT IS THE SECOND LOOK.NEVER BE THE BEST MAN/WOMAN IN THE ROOM.BE HAPPY AND OPTIMISTIC. LIFE WILL GO ON. MAKE PLANS FOR THEFUTURE. GET MARRIED. HAVE CHILDREN.

Preparations

Questions?