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Economics Group Presentation 0905018

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Economics Group Presentation (Volatility of US economy)
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Economics Group Economics Group Presentation Presentation Presenters : Amy, Kelvin, Saddam & Samear
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Page 1: Economics Group Presentation 0905018

Economics Group Economics Group PresentationPresentation

Presenters : Amy, Kelvin, Saddam & Samear

Page 2: Economics Group Presentation 0905018

Overview of Today’s Presentation Introduction of Economics United States Market Situation

U.S. Economics The Crisis Impact U.S. Unemployment Rates The Homelessness & Hunger The Homelessness & Hunger population

Property Market in United States The Subprime Mortgage crisis Boom and Bust in Housing Market U.S. Existing Home Sales Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae Crisis The Homelessness & Hunger population

Automotive Industries in United States U.S. Automotive Industry Crisis New Car Sales Statistics Three Big U.S. Auto Maker Crisis Fiat’s-Chrysler Merger

U.S. Government Rescue Plan U.S.Government Bailout for Automotive Industry Housing Financial Assistance Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s Rescue Plan Tax Relief to Middle Class Americans Trade Assistance Scheme Invest in the Manufacturing Sector and Create Five Millions Green Jobs

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Economics

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Introduction of Economics Economics is defined as the study of how we manage our scarce resources. Scarcity

exists because human wants always exceed what can be produced with limited resources and time that nature makes available.

Opportunity cost is a Keynesian term and key concept in economics. It Implies the choice between desirable yet mutually exclusive results. Opportunity cost analysis is an important part of a company decision-making processes. It means the cost of an alternative that must be forgone in order to pursue a certain action.

Equilibrium means the state in which market supply and demand balance each other and, as a result, prices become stable. Generally, when there is too much supply for goods or services, the price goes down, which results in higher demand.

A free market which is free from government intervention. There’s no governmental monopolies, no regulation, no subsidization. In a free market, property rights are voluntarily exchanged at a price arranged solely by the mutual consent of sellers and buyers. Free market is not to be confused with a perfect market where individuals have perfect information and there is perfect competition.

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Market economy means an economic system in which the prices of goods and services are determined in a free price system set by supply and demand. It is a planned economy in which central government determines the price system. Market economies is contrasted with mixed economy where the price system is not entirely free but under government control that is not extensive enough to constitute a planned economy.

Monopolist means a person, group or organization with a monopoly. In other words,

an individual or company that controls all of the market for a particular good or service.

Monopolistic competition means a type of competition within an industry where: All firms produce similar yet not perfectly substitutable products. All firms are able to enter the industry if the profits are attractive. All firms are profit maximizes. All firms have some market power, which means none are price takers

on

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Conglomerate merger means a merger between firms that are involved in totally unrelated business activities. There are two types of conglomerate mergers: pure and mixed. Pure conglomerate mergers involve firms with nothing in common, while mixed conglomerate mergers involve firms that are looking for product extensions or market extensions.

Microeconomics is the study of the decisions of individuals, households, and businesses in specific markets

Macroeconomics is the study of the overall functioning of an economy such as basic economic growth, unemployment, or inflation.

Vertical integration means when a company expands its business into areas that are at different points of the same production path. Vertical expansion, is the growth of a business enterprise through the acquisition of companies that produce the intermediate goods needed by the business or help market and distribute its final goods.

Horizontal integration occurs when a firm is being taken over or merged with another firm which is in the same industry and in the same stage of production.

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United States Economics

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United States Recession The National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. has been in a

recession since December 2007. The NBER did not give any reasons or causes of the recession, but it is widely accepted that the housing downturn, which started in 2006, is a primary cause of the broader economic malaise.

The fall of housing prices from peak levels reached earlier this decade cut deeply into home building and home purchases. This also caused a sharp rise in mortgage foreclosures, which in turn resulted in losses of hundreds of billions of dollars among the nation's leading banks and a tightening of credit.

Financial assets related to home mortgages have lost value during the house decline, and the banks holding these assets have restricted credit. As a result, the entire U.S. economy is in danger.

This large influx of money to U.S. banks and financial institutions, along with low interest rates, made it easier for Americans to get credit. These developments allowed more families to borrow money for cars, and homes, and college tuition. They also allow more entrepreneurs to get loans to start a new businesses and create jobs.

Source : http://www.cnnmoney.comhttp://recession.org

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United States Economics The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 began in July 2007 when a loss of confidence

by investors in the value of securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in a liquidity crisis.

Credit risk in the general economy, spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year. In September 2008 the crisis deepened, as stock markets worldwide crashed and entered a period of high volatility, and a considerable number of banks, mortgage lenders and insurance companies failed in the following weeks.

In September 2008, when Lehman Brothers and other important financial institutions failed, the crisis hit a key point and $150 Billion were withdrawn from USA money funds.

The IMF estimates that global financial institutions will have to write off $1.5 trillion of their holdings of sub prime MBS (Mortgage Backed security). $750 billion in such losses had been recognized as of November 2008.

Source : http://usmayors.org/

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The Crisis Impact Recessions have a disproportionate impact on lower-income families because the cause rising unemployment, a reduction in work hour and the stagnation of family incomes. Year to year changes in the poverty rate are correlated with the unemployment rate.

The increased food, rising unemployment and the volatile rising housing have resulted in a 30% increase for emergency needs for food over the last year.

These are the reported causes of the Homelessness and Hunger for year 2008.

High housing costs Lack of affordable Housing Poverty or lack of money Recent increased of food prices High Medical or health costs Mental illness Substance Abuse Domestic Violence

Source : http://usmayors.org/

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U.S. Un-employment Rates The number of unemployed persons increased by 563,000 to 13.7 million in April 2009. The unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of

unemployed persons has risen by 6.0 million. Since the recession started in December 2007, the world's largest economy has lost 6.0

million jobs, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Source http://www.bls.gov (United States Department of Labor)http://www.tradingeconomics.com

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The Homelessness & Hunger.

Source : http://www.endhomelessness.org/section/data/homelessmap http://www.heartlandalliances.org

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The Homelessness and hunger population in United States

The United States is a part of the high income group nations which consists of 65 countries with a combined population of about 1 billion, less than one sixth of the world’s population.

36.2 million people (including 12.6 million children) are food insecure. This represents more than 1 in 10 households in the United States.

As many as 405,000 more Illinoisans—132,000 of them children—are likely to have been pushed into poverty as a result of the recession, according to the Heartland Alliance Mid-America Institute on Poverty's 2009 Report on Illinois Poverty. The projected increase would represent a 27 percent jump in the number of people living in poverty in the state over the past two years.

Source : http://www.bread.org/http://www.worldhunger.org http://www.heartlansalliances.org

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Property Market in United States

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The Subprime Mortgage CrisisThe sub prime mortgage crisis has put the U.S. economy into the worst recession since 1982. Once housing prices began to fall, homeowners were stuck with mortgages they could not afford or refinance.

Causes of Sub prime Mortgage Crisis: Inability of homeowners Borrowers overextending Predatory lending Speculation and overbuilding Risky mortgage products High personal and corporate debt levels

As mortgage payments fell, delinquencies and foreclosures increased dramatically that caused money flowing into MBS decreased during 2007. Many financial institutions suffered enormous losses, with hundreds of mortgage companies and several major financial institutions going bankrupt. August 2008, shares of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had tumbled more than 90% from their one-year prior levels

Sub prime lending was a major contributor to this increase in home ownership rates and in the overall demand for housing, which drove prices higher.

A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is an asset-backed security or debt obligation that represents a claim on the cash flows from mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property.

Source: www.economics.about.com

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Boom and bust in the housing marketBecause of supply and demand , the most "affordable" places are where there is the least demand relative to supply. Where the supply of available housing is less than the demand, low- and moderate-income households often struggle to obtain housing that is affordable.

Household debt grew from $705 billion at year-end 1974, 60% of disposable personal income to $7.4 trillion at yearend 2000, and finally to $14.5 trillion in midyear 2008, 134% of disposable personal income.

During 2008, the typical USA household owned 13 credit cards, with 40% of households carrying a balance. Free cash used by consumers from home equity extraction doubled from $627 billion in 2001 to $1,428 billion in 2005 as the housing bubble built, a total of nearly $5 trillion dollars over the period.

This credit and house price explosion led to a building boom and eventually to a surplus of unsold homes, which caused U.S. housing prices to peak and begin declining in mid-2006.

As of March 2008, an estimated 8.8 million borrowers — 10.8% of all homeowners — had negative equity in their homes, a number that is believed to have risen to 12 million by November 2008.

Increasing foreclosure rates increases the inventory of houses offered for sale. The number of new homes sold in 2007 was 26.4% less than in the preceding year.

By January 2008, the inventory of unsold new homes was 9.8 times the December 2007 sales volume.

By September 2008, average U.S. housing prices had declined by over 20% from their mid-2006 peak. This major and unexpected decline in house prices means that many borrowers have zero or negative equity in their homes, meaning their homes were worth less than their mortgages.

Low interest rates and large inflows of foreign funds created easy credit conditions for a number of years prior to the crisis, fuelling a housing market boom and encouraging debt-financed consumption.

Source: www.query.nytimes.com/

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Fannie Mae and Freddie MacFannie Mae is the leading participant in the U.S. secondary mortgage market, which serves to provide liquidity to ensure that mortgage companies, savings, loans, commercial banks, credit unions, state and local housing finance agencies have enough funds to lend to home buyers.

Since 1968, Fannie Mae has helped more than 55 million families achieve the American Dream of homeownership.

They make funds available to mortgage lenders in two primary ways :

First, purchasing mortgage loans from lenders for cash and hold those mortgages in their portfolio. It offers debt products, through dealers, to a diverse group of investors, thereby expanding the total amount of funds available for housing in the United States.

Second way they make funds available is by issuing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in exchange for pools of mortgages from lenders.

Source: www.google.com/search/freddiefannie/.org

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Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac Crisis

The value of USA sub prime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007, with over 7.5 million first-lien subprime mortgages outstanding

Freddie Mac lost more than $50 billion in year 2008 and government had pumped in $45 billion to keep the company afloat.

As the housing crisis worsened in 2009, Freddie Mac loss widened to a record $9.9 billion in the first 3 months of 2009. It would ask for a further state aid of $6.1 billions.

Chief of Financial Officer (CFO) David Kellermann's suicide death is the latest in a string of blows to Freddie Mac, which owns or guarantees about 13 million mortgages

Fannie Mae posted a quarterly loss of $23.2 billion, or $4.09 per share. That compares with a loss of $2.5 billion, or $2.57 a share, in the year-ago period.

Source: www.reuters.com/article/ www.freddiemac.com

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Automotive Industries in United States

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United States Automotive Industry CrisisIn the mid of 2008, a global-scale recession began to affect the automotive economy of the United States.

Despite aggressive discounts from major automakers U.S. automotive sales dropped 41% in February 2009, the lowest level for the month since 1967.

The pressure on the industry increases as the worsening credit crisis makes it harder for

buyers to get loans and dealers to finance their operations.

During 2007, nearly 2 million new U.S. cars were purchased with funds from home equity loans. Such funding was considerably less available in 2008.

The annual capacity of the industry is 17 million cars; sales in 2008 dropped to an annual rate of only 10 million vehicles made in the U.S. and Canada. All the automakers and their vast supplier network account for 2.3% of the U.S. economic output, down from 3.1% in 2006.

As of December 19, 2008, oil prices had fallen to $33.87 per barrel, but the automobile crisis continues.

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2003 - 2008 New Car Sales Statistics

NEW CAR SALES

CALENDAR YEARS

  2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

JAN 29,072 31,430 32,331 33,637 33,361 34,707

FEB 22,819  24,793 25,688 26,707 27,780 24,585

MAR 27,118  32,862 34,167 35,277 39,340 32,705

APR 30,769   33,705 34,099 36,609 37,478 37,682

MAY 29,035    34,931 36,904 36,191 37,819 38,472

JUN 31,463    37,333 38,718 40,674 42,758 38,573

JUL 29,188     33,259 36,662 38,189 38,329 41,088

AUG 25,666      35,186 37,151 45,547 37,175 39,556

SEP 26,751    30,248 35,334 38,909 38,712 40,464

OCT 23,216     32,965 33,211 31,392 34,839 38,597

NOV 16,842      27,160 28,138 28,915 29,859 30,155

DEC 17,220     24,312 26,879 29,787 31,058 31,668

TOTAL 309,159 378,184 399,282 421,834 428,508 428,252

http://www.marylandmva.com/AboutMVA/statistics/new03-08.htm (US Department of Transportation – Motor Vehicle Administration)

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Three Big U.S. Automakers’ Crisis

The crisis has occurred mainly as a result of the poor business practices of the Big Three U.S. automakers.

Chrysler

In December 2008, it shuts 30 U.S factories down for a month to avert collapse. Company cities to lack of consumer credit.

In February 2009, Chrysler announced cuts of almost 35,000 workers.

Bringing total reductions to 1.3 million production commencing from early 2009.

General Motors and Chrysler have upped their total aid requests to US$ 39 billion in US government loans as they struggle to stave off bankruptcy.

On April 30, 2009,Chrysler files for bankruptcy protection, saying that it will sell its Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands into a new company to be owned by the U.S Government.

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General Motors (GM) General Motors is estimated to have lost $51 billion in the three years before the 2008 financial crisis

began.

GM is in the process of selling Hummer, Opel, and Saab, to focus on four brands in its main markets; Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, and GMC.

GM announced April 27, 2009 that production for Pontiac and Saturn would cease by the end of 2009, and GM would also retire the Pontiac brand, while still considering the sale of Saturn.

Ford Ford’s global automotive operations had a pretax loss of $2.9 billion for the quarter, compared with a

pretax loss of $362 million a year earlier.

Volvo lost $458 million, wider than the $167 million loss last year. Ford Motor Credit Co. had a pretax profit of $161 million, far lower than the $546 million in the same quarter last year.

Sales fell 22 percent to $32.1 billion from $41.1 billion due to lower volume and the sale of Jaguar and Land Rover.

On year 2008, Ford had eliminated about 2,260 more white-collar employees in North America as it battles continued weak demand, the credit crisis and the worst economic downturn in decades.

The salaried cuts, equate to about 10 percent of its North American salaried work force of 22,600.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

http://www.npr.org www.strategosinc.com/ford_crises.htm

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Fiat’s-Chrysler MergerThe alliance can be worth more than $10 billion for the struggling Detroit company and could potentially save more than 5,000 North American manufacturing jobs. Fiat will initially hold a 20% ownership stake in Chrysler. Fiat will have the right to increase its ownership stake an additional 15% in three increments as it meets the following criteria:

5% for bringing a 40MPG(miles per gallon) vehicle platform to Chrysler to be produced in the U.S.

5% for providing a fuel-efficient engine family to be produced in the U.S. for use in Chrysler vehicles.

5% for providing Chrysler access to its vast global distribution network to facilitate the export of Chrysler vehicles.

Chrysler Plans to build cleaner cars through an alliance with Italian automaker Fiat.

A Chrysler and Fiat partnership is a great fit as it creates the potential for a powerful, new global competitor, offering Chrysler a number of strategic benefits , including access to products that compliments their current portfolio; a distribution network outside North America; and cost savings in design, engineering, manufacturing, purchasing and sales and marketing.

Source: http://www.autoalliance.org/

www.businesspundit.com/chryslerfiat-merger-its-all-about-fiat/

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U.S. Government Rescue Plan

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U.S. Government Bailout for automotive industry

On September 30, 2008, the first automaker loan package of $25 billion, was signed into law. The bill sets aside $7.5 billion in taxpayer funds needed to guarantee $25 billion in low-interest loans to help US automakers produce more fuel-efficient cars and trucks.

The government would provide debtor-in-possession financing for between $US 3 billion to $US 3.5 billion, and upon a completion of Chrysler bankruptcy restructuring and court proceedings, the company would be eligible to receive up to $US 4.5 billion in financing to resume operations, for total of $US 8 billions.

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Housing Financial Assistance In February 2009, President Obama doubled Treasury funding to Freddie Mac and Fannie

Mae to $200 billion each as part of his assistance plan.

A new housing program has stabilized the market, preventing more foreclosures and helping millions more re-finance at historically low mortgage rates. The Administration is also moving forward with its plans to get credit flowing again to businesses and families.

President Obama unveiled a $75 billion multi-pronged plan that seeks to help up to 9 million borrowers suffering from falling home prices and unaffordable monthly payments.

The plan will make homeowners to afford their monthly payments easier by refinancing the mortgages or having their loans modified. It is vastly broadening the scope of the government rescue by focusing on homeowners who are still current in their payments but at risk of default. Billions of federal funds will help entice servicers to modify the loans of those who've already stopped paying.

The program would not only give servicers $1,000 for each modification, but would give them another $1,000 a year for three years if the borrower stays current. It will also give $500 to servicers and $1,500 to mortgage holders if they modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

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Barack Obama and Joe Biden's Rescue plans

Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families

Provide US$50 billion to Jumpstart the Economy and Prevent 1 Million Americans from Losing Their Jobs

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com

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Tax Relief to Middle Class Americans

In February 2009, U.S. congress passed a $170 billion tax rebate meant to stimulate the economy.

Eliminate all income taxation of seniors making less than $50,000 per annum. This proposal will eliminate income taxes for 7 million seniors and provide these seniors with an average savings of $1,400 each year.

27 millions American seniors will also not need to file an income tax return.

Simplify tax filings so that millions of Americans will be able to do their taxes in less than five minutes.

Ensure that the IRS uses the information it already gets from banks and employers to give taxpayers the option of pre-filled tax forms to verify, sign and return

Estimated this proposals will save Americans up to 200 million total hours of work and aggravation and up to $2 billion in tax preparer fees.

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Fight for Fair Trade Fight for a trade policy that opens up foreign markets to support good American jobs. Pressure the World Trade Organization to enforce trade agreements and stop

countries from continuing unfair government subsidies to foreign exporters and no tariff barriers on U.S. exports.

Amend the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA and its potential were oversold to the American people. They will work with the

leaders of Canada and Mexico to fix NAFTA so that it works for American workers.

Improve Transition Assistance

To help all workers adapt to a rapidly changing economy, Creating flexible education accounts to help workers retrain, and providing retraining

assistance for workers in sectors of the economy vulnerable to dislocation before they lose their jobs.

Trade Assistance Scheme

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End Tax Breaks for Companies that Send Jobs Overseas

Companies should not get billions of dollars in tax deductions for movingtheir operation overseas.

To ensure that public contracts are awarded to companies that are committed by American Workers.

Reward Companies that Support American Workers

Introduced the Patriot Employer Act of 2007 to reward companies that create good jobs with good benefits for American workers. The legislation would provide a tax credit to companies that maintain or increase the number of full-time

workers in America relative to those outside the US. Pay decent wages; prepare workers for retirement. Provide health insurance; and support employees who serve in the military.

Source: http://www.usnews.com/

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Invest in the Manufacturing Sector and Create 5 Million New Green Jobs

New Jobs Through National Infrastructure Investment Advanced Manufacturing Fund to identify and invest in the most compelling

advanced manufacturing strategies. The Fund will have a peer-review selection and award process based on the

Michigan 21st Century Jobs Fund, a state-level initiative that has awarded over $125 million to Michigan businesses with the most innovative proposals to create new products and new jobs in the state.

Technology, Innovation and Creating Jobs Increase federal support for research, technology and innovation for companies and

universities so that American families can lead the world in creating new advanced jobs and products.

Support Small Business Eliminate all capital gains taxes on start-up and small businesses to encourage

innovation and job creation. Obama and Biden will also support small business owners by providing a $500

“Making Work Pay” tax credit to almost every worker in America.

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Labor Ensuring that his labor appointees support workers‘ rights and will work to ban the permanent replacement of striking workers. Increase the minimum wage and index it to inflation to ensure it rises every year.

Protect Homeownership and Crack Down on Mortgage Fraud Crack down on fraudulent brokers and lenders. Ensuring homebuyers have honest and complete information about their mortgage options. Tax credit to all middle-class homeowners

Address Predatory Credit Card Practices Establish a five-star rating system so that every consumer knows the risk involved in every credit card and a Credit

Card Bill of Rights to stop credit card companies from exploiting consumers with unfair practices.

Protect Against Caregiver Discrimination Workers with family obligations often are discriminated against in the workplace. Obama and Biden will enforce the recently-enacted Equal Employment Opportunity Commission guidelines on caregiver

discrimination

Expand Flexible Work Arrangements Create a program to inform businesses about the benefits of flexible work schedules Increase federal incentives for telecommuting. Adopting flexible work schedules and permitting employees to request flexible arrangements.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/news/us

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Thank youThank you

End of PresentationEnd of Presentation

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List of SourcesList of Sources1. http://www.bls.gov (United States Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor)2. http://www.reuters.com (Chrysler’s news) 3. http://cnnmoney.com (Reporting U.S. Recession) 4. http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.pdf (National Bureau of Economic Research)5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis 6. http://www.endhomelessness.org/section/data/homelessmap (Homeless data) 7. http://usmayors.org/ (Causes of Homeless and hunger statistics) 8. http://www.heartlandalliances.org (Hunger child) 9. http://www.economics.about.com (The Subprime Mortgage Crisis)10. http://www.query.nytimes.com (Boom and Bust of Property Market) 11. http://www.nar.org (Home Sales Inventory) 12. http://www.google.com/search/freddiefannie/.org (Fannie Mac and Freddie Mae)13. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ http://www.npr.org 14. http://www.strategosinc.com/ford_crises.htm (Three Big Auto car marker crisis) 15. http://www.autoalliance.org/ www.businesspundit.com/chryslerfiat-merger-its-all-about-fiat/ (Fiat-Chrysler

Merger) 16. http://www.marylandmva.com/AboutMVA/statistics/new03-08.htm (Statistics on new car sales 2003-2008)17. http://www.usnews.com/ (Trade Assistance) 18. www.msnbc.msn.com (Barack Obama Rescue Plan) 19. http://www.reuters.com/news/us (Invest in Manufacturing Sector and create new green job)


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