Economics of CBPP control in Kenya

Dr Joshua Onono

A presentation made at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria: 3rd/ April/2014

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Outline

• Introduction• Economic analysis framework

a. Partial budgetb. Decision treec. Impact assessment

• Policy analysis framework• Conclusion

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Introduction

• CBPP is an infectious disease of cattle which has a huge impact on the society.

• CBPP is caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides Small Colony variant (MmmSC).

• The organism produces natural infection in cattle and water buffaloes (Bubalu babulus), but not in wild buffaloes (Syncerus caffer).

• CBPP is widespread in Africa and it is recognized to be present in some countries of Asia and Europe.

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Introduction

• In Africa, it is found in an area south of the Sahara, from the Tropic of Cancer to Tropic of Capricorn and from Atlantic to the Indian Ocean.

• Endemic infection extends throughout the pastoral herds of much of western, central and eastern Africa, with Angola and northern Namibia in southern Africa.

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Introduction

Fig. 1: Clinical and pathological signs for CBPP (Niang et al. 2010; Twinamasiko, 2002)

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Economic analysis framework

Costs Benefits

New Costs Treatment of clinical casesPreventive annual vaccinationsCost of feed and management

Costs Saved Slaughter fee per headMarket prices for cattle

Forgone RevenueSalvage value for meat, hides and skins from culled cows Reduced alternative income and social activities

New RevenueExtra cowsExtra milk production Extra calves born Extra meat (weight gain)

Fig. 2: Partial budgeting framework

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Economic analysis framework

Fig. 3: Estimation of output losses in herds due to CBPP

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Economic analysis framework

Fig. 4: Estimation for direct cost of control interventions for CBPP

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Results of partial budget analysis

Fig. 5: Comparison of annual costs and benefits from various CBPP control options in a herd of 100 cows (Onono, 2013)

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Fig.6: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and the parameters under treatment strategy

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Fig.7: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and the parameters under vaccination strategy

Economic analysis framework

Fig.8: Decision tree analysis framework

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Results of decision tree analysis (Onono, 2013)

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Fig.9: Results of decision tree analysis

Fig 10: Sensitivity analysis for EMV (US$) of net benefits with increasing probability of CBPP outbreak (Onono,

2013)

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Economic analysis framework

Fig. 11: CBPP impact assessment

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Fig. 12: Results on estimated impact of CBPP on pastoralists (Onono et al. 2014)

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Fig. 13: Problem tree analysis for delivery of CBPP control technologies (Onono, 2013)

88% 12%0%

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Conclusions

• Slaughter of clinical cases of CBPP is not beneficial to pastoralists• Treatment of clinical cases, annual vaccination and a combination

of these two strategies have benefits to pastoralists• Vaccination services against CBPP can be delivered through signed

contractual agreements between private and public veterinary departments

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