Introduction to Economic History(Master PPD & APE)

(EHESS & Paris School of Economics)Thomas Piketty

Academic year 2017-2018

Lecture 8: The rise of the fiscal, social and capital state

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http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/PikettyEcoHist2017Lecture8.pdfhttp://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/PikettyEcoHist2017Lecture8.pdf

Roadmap of lecture 8• State formation & government regulation in history• State power and extreme inequality regimes• State power and the evolution of ternary societies• The rise of the modern social and fiscal state• The rise and fall of tax progressivity• Why doesn’t democracy always lead to declining

inequality?• Political beliefs & attitudes toward inequality• Regulating property: financial transparency & participatory

governance• Organizing democracy: electoral & party systems, nations-

states, federations, empires• History and the dimensions of political conflict

State formation & government regulationin historical perspective

• The rise of the fiscal and social state (taxes

• (2) The rise of fiscal & social state represents only one aspect of state formation & government regulation. As we’ve seen in thiscourse, the general set of laws and rules enforced by govt can beeven more important than the fiscal system and public spendings.

• Basic civil & political rights: forced vs free labor, restrictions on mobility, occupational & voting rights (major historical role)

• Property regimes: legal system shapes balance of power betweenowners & non-owners; public vs private property; workers rights & labor law (co-determination, unions); tenants rights & inheritance; intellectual property rights; monetary regimes & capital controls

→ there are many different complementary ways to evaluate the size & importance of governement regulationExemple: should we look at share of govt tax revenues in national income Y, or at the share of govt property in national capital K? China vs Europe: Chinese govt has smaller tax share in Y, but highershare in K ownership. Which state is most powerful?

• Family vs government roles: conflict about marriage, fertility, gender, education, etc.

• Political regimes and the organization of governement: electoral& party systems, nations-states, federations, empires

→ the capital & democratic state (the set of legal rules and institutions governing property, labor and political relations betweenindividuals) encompasses the fiscal & social state and allows for a broader view of state formation & government regulation

• During 21c, just like in previous centuries, the evolution of fiscal and social institutions will be largely determined by the evolution of legal and political institutions: financialtransparency & participatory governance; international legalsystems; democracy vs automatic rules on property or debt; development of supranational (un)democratic institutions?

State power & extreme inequality regimes• Today we tend to view the state as a force to reduce

inequality and enforce equal rights• However historically state power has often been

used as a tool for the elite to enforce extremeinequality regimes, often based upon extreme formsof property: slavery, serfdom, forced labor

• State power can still be used as a tool of elitedomination today and in the future (possibly via more subtle forms than in the past: e.g. protection of wealthy via legal system, tax havens, gatedcommunities and universities, etc.).

• So it is important to put the study of state power and inequality into a broad historical perspective

• If we look at countries with extreme inequality levels in the world today, we find that they are usually associated by an historical legacy of state-sponsored racial discrimination and rigid inequality of status.

• South Africa. Apartheid until 1994, no right to property or mobility for 90% of the population, no redistribution since the end of Apartheid (no land reform, no wealth redistribution).

• Brasil. Slavery until 1887 (last country to abolish slavery, withslaves = 30% of pop in 1887), huge regional disparities.

• US. Slavery until 1865 in the South (40% of pop), legal racial discrimination until 1960s.

• There are exceptions, but they also involve state power. • E.g. Middle East: the most unequal region in the world, due to

different factors: geographical concentration of oil ressources, arbitrary frontiers drawn and protected by the West since1916 (until recently…), role of sovereign wealth funds and global financial markets to transform oil rent into perpetualfinancial rent. Oil and finance can be more powerfulinequality-generating mechanisms than slavery and racial discrimination.

• If we measure income inequality at the level of the region taken as a whole, then the Middle East appears as the most unequal region in the world. Top 10% income share ≈ 60% of total income in Middle East(lower bound, i.e. assuming low within-country inequality)

≈ 35% in Europe, 45-50% in USA, 55-60% in South Africa or Brasil

• This is due to huge inequality between Middle East countries, itself due to concentration of oil ressources in small territories with limited population. E.g. total educational investment of Egypt (80m pop) is 100 times smaller than oil revenues in UAE-Qatar (1m pop).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Middle East (pop: 280million) Western Europe (410m) US (310m)

Top 10% income share

Index

Measuring Top Incomes and lnequality in the Middle East:

Data Limitations and Illustration with the Case of Egypt

Facundo Alvaredo and Thomas Piketty

Index of Tables and Figures

Table 1. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 2012

Table 2. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 1990

Table 3. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 2012 vs 1990

Table 4. Parameters for lognormal distribution (bottom 90%)

Table 5. Parameters a and b for Pareto distribution (top 10%)

Table 6. Summary results. 2010

Figure 1. Population growth in the Middle East 1990-2012

Figure 2. Distribution of the population in the Middle East

Figure 3. Distribution of income in the Middle East

Figure 4. Population growth in the Middle East 1990-2012

Figure 5. Income per capita relative to Middle East income per capita 1990-2012

Figure 6. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt, Western Europe and US 2010

Figure 7. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt, Western Europe and US 2010

Figure 8. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt, Western Europe and US 2010

Figure 9. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and developing countries. 2010

Figure 10. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and developing countries. 2010

Figure 11. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and developing countries. 2010

Figure 12. Top 10% income share in the Middle East under three scenarios

Figure 13. Top 1% income share in the Middle East under three scenarios

Figure 14. Top 10% income shares in the Middle East and the US

Figure 15. Top 1% income shares in the Middle East and the US

Appendix Tables

Table B1. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 1990-2012

Table B2. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 2012

Table B3. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 1990

Table C1. Top 10% income shares in the Middle East under different parameter assumptions. 1990-2012

Table C2. Top 1% income shares in Middle East under different parameter assumptions. 1990-2012

Table C3. Gini coefficients in the Middle East under different parameter assumptions. 1990-2012

Table C4. Gini coefficients in the Middle East under different parameter assumptions

Appendix Figures

Figure A1. Inverted-Pareto coefficients: English-speaking countries, 1910-2005

Figure A2. Inverted-Pareto coefficients: Continental Europe & Japan 1900-2005

Figure A3. Inverted-Pareto coefficients: Nordic & Southern Europe, 1900-2006

Figure A4. Inverted-Pareto coefficients: Developing Countries: 1920-2005

Figure A5. Pareto curves for the distribution of income (France)

Figure A6. Pareto curves for the distribution of income (France, top decile)

Figure C1. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and selected OECD countries 2010

Figure C2. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and selected OECD countries 2010

Figure C3. Top income shares in the Middle East, Egypt and selected OECD countries 2010

T1

Table 1. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 2012

Population (million)Population (% of ME total)GDP (current billion US$)GNI (current billion US$)GNI (% of ME total)Ratio GNI/GDP (%)90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per capita (% of ME average)

Bahrain20121.30.4%26.723.40.9%88%15,967192%

Egypt201280.727.4%262.8256.39.4%98%2,85834%

Iran201276.426.0%538.0495.618.2%92%5,83670%

Iraq201232.611.1%210.3213.17.8%101%5,88771%

Jordan20126.32.1%31.030.71.1%99%4,37553%

Kuwait20123.31.1%182.6196.67.2%108%54,440655%

Lebanon20124.41.5%42.942.31.6%99%8,608104%

Oman20123.31.1%78.172.72.7%93%19,750237%

Qatar20122.10.7%192.4190.07.0%99%83,3771003%

Saudi Arabia201228.39.6%711.0722.026.6%102%22,972276%

Syria201222.47.6%45.644.21.6%97%1,77521%

UAE20129.23.1%384.7397.614.6%103%38,871467%

Yemen201223.98.1%35.633.61.2%94%1,27015%

Egypt80.727.4%262.8256.39.4%98%2,85834%

Iran76.426.0%538.0495.618.2%92%5,83670%

Iraq-Syria-Jordan-Lebanon-Yemen89.630.5%365.5364.013.4%100%3,65744%

Oil countries (Qatar-UAE-Kuwait-Saudia Arabia-Bahrain-Oman)47.416.1%1,575.61,602.358.9%102%30,406366%

incl. Qatar-UAE-Kuwait14.54.9%759.7784.228.8%103%48,650585%

Middle East294.1100.0%2,741.92,718.2100.0%99%8,317100%

Source: Table B1.

T2

Table 2. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 1990

Population (million)Population (% of ME total)GDP (current billion US$)GNI (current billion US$)GNI (% of ME total)Ratio GNI/GDP (%)90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per capita (% of ME average)

Bahrain20120.50.3%4.23.50.8%84%6,428286%

Egypt201256.330.8%43.142.09.2%97%67130%

Iran201256.430.8%116.0115.925.3%100%1,85182%

Iraq201217.59.6%62.448.710.6%78%2,500111%

Jordan20123.21.7%4.23.90.9%95%1,12050%

Kuwait20122.11.1%18.425.75.6%140%11,238500%

Lebanon20122.71.5%2.83.50.8%122%1,15251%

Oman20121.81.0%11.711.42.5%97%5,658252%

Qatar20120.50.3%7.47.61.7%103%14,319637%

Saudi Arabia201216.28.8%116.8124.827.3%107%6,928308%

Syria201212.56.8%12.312.02.6%97%86438%

UAE20121.81.0%50.753.211.6%105%26,4981178%

Yemen201211.86.4%5.65.61.2%99%42819%

Egypt56.330.8%43.142.09.2%97%67130%

Iran56.430.8%116.0115.925.3%100%1,85182%

Iraq-Syria-Jordan-Lebanon-Yemen47.626.0%87.473.616.1%84%1,39162%

Oil countries (Qatar-UAE-Kuwait-Saudi Arabia-Bahrain-Oman)22.912.5%209.2226.249.4%108%8,906396%

incl. Qatar-UAE-Kuwait4.32.4%76.586.518.9%113%17,924797%

Middle East183.2100.0%455.7457.7100.0%100%2,249100%

Source: Table B1.

T3

Table 3. Population and income in the Middle East countries. 2012 vs 1990

Population (% total)GNI (% total)per capita GNI (% ME average)

199020121990201219902012

Egypt30.8%27.4%9.2%9.4%29.9%34.4%

Iran30.8%26.0%25.3%18.2%82.3%70.2%

Iraq-Syria-Jordan-Lebanon-Yemen26.0%30.5%16.1%13.4%61.9%44.0%

Oil countries (Qatar-UAE-Kuwait-Saudi Arabia-Bahrain-Oman)12.5%16.1%49.4%58.9%396.0%365.6%

incl. Qatar-UAE-Kuwait2.4%4.9%18.9%28.8%797.0%585.0%

Middle East100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

Source: Table B1.

T4

Simulation 1Simulation 2Simulation 3

Table 4. Parameters for lognormal distribution (bottom 90%)

benchmark (scenario 1)low inequality (scenario 2)high inequality (scenario 3)

sigmaGinisigmaGinisigmaGini

Bahrain2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Egypt1.8600.3401.8600.3401.8600.340

Iran2.1800.4202.1800.4202.1800.420

Iraq1.8600.3401.8600.3401.8600.340

Jordan2.0500.3902.0500.3902.0500.390

Kuwait2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Lebanon1.8600.3401.8600.3401.8600.340

Oman2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Qatar2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Saudi Arabia2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Syria2.0800.3962.0800.3962.0800.396

UAE2.5950.5001.8600.3404.3300.700

Yemen2.1780.4182.1780.4182.1780.418

T5

Table 5. Parameters a and b for Pareto distribution (top 10%)Table. Parameters a and b for Pareto distribution part (top 10%)

Pareto coefficientPareto coefficient

ba=b/(b-1)

scenario 1variant 12.002.00scenario 1.1benchmark

(see table 2)variant 21.503.00scenario 1.2

variant 31.802.25scenario 1.3

variant 41.902.11scenario 1.4

variant 52.101.91scenario 1.5

variant 62.201.83scenario 1.6

variant 73.001.50scenario 1.7

scenario 2variant 12.002.00scenario 2.1

(see table 2)variant 21.503.00scenario 2.2

variant 31.802.25scenario 2.3low inequality

variant 41.902.11scenario 2.4

variant 52.101.91scenario 2.5

variant 62.201.83scenario 2.6

variant 73.001.50scenario 2.7

scenario 3variant 12.002.00scenario 3.1

(see table 2)variant 21.503.00scenario 3.2

variant 31.802.25scenario 3.3

variant 41.902.11scenario 3.4

variant 52.101.91scenario 3.5

variant 62.201.83scenario 3.6high inequality

variant 73.001.50scenario 3.7

Note: In the main paper, scenario 2.3 is identified as the "low inequality" scenario; however, scenario 2.2 shows an even lower level of inequality. Similarly, scenario 3.6 is identified as the "high inequality" scenario, while scenario 3.7 displays a higher level of inequality. The full set of results is presented Appendix C.

T6

Table 6. Summary results. 2010

Top 10% income shareTop 1% income shareGini coefficient

Benchmark scenario (1.1)

Egypt33.010.40.40

Middle East55.419.80.64

High-inequality scenario (3.6)

Egypt35.112.30.42

Middle East61.125.90.68

Low-inequality scenario (2.3)

Egypt30.78.50.38

Middle East50.114.80.61

Western Europe36.211.1

US48.019.9

South Africa53.616.8

Colombia49.520.5

Uruguay46.114.3

Singapore39.613.4

F1

Figure 1. Population growth in the Middle East 1990-2012

Notes: "Oil countries" include Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. "Other countries" include Jordan, Lebanon,

and Yemen.

Source: Table B1

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122290000023500000242000002470000025300000257000002620000026600000271000002770000028500000296000003080000032200000337000003540000037100000390000004090000042800000445000004600000047400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120125640000057500000583000005900000059700000605000006140000062500000637000006490000065900000669000006770000068500000693000007020000071000000718000007270000073500000745000007540000076400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120125640000057500000583000005900000059700000605000006140000062500000637000006490000065900000669000006770000068500000693000007020000071000000718000007270000073500000745000007540000076400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120124760000049500000513000005320000055100000569000005870000060500000623000006400000065700000675000006930000071200000731000007510000077100000793000008150000083600000856000008760000089600000

Oil countries

Egypt

Iran

Irak, Syria, other countries

F2

Figure 2. Distribution of the population in the Middle East

Notes: "Oil countries" include Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. "Other countries" include Jordan, Lebanon,

and Yemen.

Source: Table B1

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122290000023500000242000002470000025300000257000002620000026600000271000002770000028500000296000003080000032200000337000003540000037100000390000004090000042800000445000004600000047400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120125640000057500000583000005900000059700000605000006140000062500000637000006490000065900000669000006770000068500000693000007020000071000000718000007270000073500000745000007540000076400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120125640000057500000583000005900000059700000605000006140000062500000637000006490000065900000669000006770000068500000693000007020000071000000718000007270000073500000745000007540000076400000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120124760000049500000513000005320000055100000569000005870000060500000623000006400000065700000675000006930000071200000731000007510000077100000793000008150000083600000856000008760000089600000

Irak, Syria, other countries

Iran

Egypt

Oil countries

F3

Figure 3. Distribution of income in the Middle East

Notes: "Oil countries" include Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. "Other countries" include Jordan, Lebanon,

and Yemen.

Source: Table B1.

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201219901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122040000000002080000000002240000000002220000000002260000000002460000000002740000000002880000000002610000000002900000000003490000000003380000000003490000000003990000000004870000000006240000000007550000000008600000000001080000000000884000000000105000000000013300000000001440000000000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120123780000000032900000000374000000004140000000046600000000543000000006140000000071500000000774000000008250000000090700000000888000000007920000000074500000000708000000008050000000010000000000012000000000014900000000017200000000019600000000020600000000023100000000019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012104000000000873000000007030000000053300000000594000000008120000000098900000000946000000009250000000094100000000912000000001040000000001030000000001190000000001440000000001700000000001970000000002550000000003020000000002960000000003450000000004190000000004460000000001990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201266300000000295000000003230000000034000000000329000000003680000000041900000000459000000004860000000055600000000662000000006390000000065900000000684000000008050000000099500000000141000000000170000000000232000000000221000000000258000000000308000000000351000000000

Irak, Syria, other countries

Iran

Egypt

Oil countries

F4

Figure 4. Population growth in the Middle East 1990-2012

Population indexed at 1990=1

Note: The figure shows the population in each country and in the Middle East as an index equal to 1 in 1990.

Source: Table B1.

Bahrein1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.0276261029471071.05405247366638171.08018445630958331.10732260093881571.1366807542787091.16887592147500531.20457148387721191.24517485845176081.29230921233042451.34740817511654541.40892721758908261.47706394270320841.55674430984143371.65443074218056881.77345426096494771.91745640636846092.0815918732760152.25033068249641092.40256762860322942.52349660445534152.60667333408610662.6572092816930946Egypt1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.01865527452537341.03610614581841931.05273948484017881.06914242307853291.08576630111280741.1027214379621751.11994783712063351.13752741689445511.15551454689839891.17395394050483761.19290429843724731.21240715673824481.23245740327950841.25302681485259291.27408576596385431.29561840546540471.31760806568886091.34001525189284541.36279086634493151.38587855138045751.40925164583018781.4328492301649509Iran1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.01970170683484081.03451959754066361.04649530068804691.05857220701059811.07285926009407631.09011445468769771.1096603646990551.13043444550134511.15075593307162931.16942632206583361.18622086833601761.20165062662578891.21612667273554531.23030212554346141.24467812174003891.25930148376203581.27407450370523571.28918521650134091.30483528331601791.32114702089008131.33821478379673291.3559600792507445Iraq1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.0281058033268521.05877121540199661.0917039574263961.12639984847171021.1624440467346951.19977638388445481.23839423397865491.27798784999315831.31818925748683281.35870572097501691.39956115936724151.44074421260862211.48191807505182951.5226775523774171.56283785816497671.6020585903678951.64067906640443021.68002247578296051.72188741774592421.767509226904881.81304306699560971.8597499611959933Jordan1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.11829652996845421.1776025236593061.23217665615141961.28107255520504731.32334384858044161.36435331230283911.40662460567823341.45015772870662451.47665615141955841.51324921135646681.55110410094637221.58927444794952691.62902208201892741.66876971608832811.70694006309148261.7463722397476341.78580441640378541.8252365930599371.86593059936908511.90725552050473191.94984227129337541.9930599369085173Kuwait1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201210.970810875367880130.920619932089636990.870428988811393860.820238045533150720.770047102254907580.769620356408033170.794261409261404430.836115030095534780.882817726604957610.92545638502088090.961563744371955350.994396472622724681.02746854752026181.06636262036514681.11483784143308931.17364574948513781.24038850864221021.31190169406934931.38369646378680391.4523826400372081.51701351701691541.578083809194601Lebanon1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.01829583883798081.04396898430976611.07319334418293021.10049059958513061.12222888555352361.13613111857519321.14417175757921051.15205035554689041.16784454715264661.19695052088054131.242166629239381.30062126829297161.36518093287542561.42565849518630831.47496743456113321.50935786984849171.53155157251946791.54867131899553791.57117800503807041.60601608793722871.6214425425792421.637016979902842Oman1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.0413970917677061.08589732186510931.12916889259892941.16526297122318461.19031900394618421.2021404306826741.20309341512610061.19945384323433531.20009027110611941.21127637488032461.23695999619911131.27529151656010731.31988124432698031.36124905599294621.39347042682101521.4114694025699091.41966451632862881.43280410009817131.47131074861485781.54840249422270441.67105076340959611.8308355933336391Qatar1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.01807280747591381.02746806514772811.03248362597766711.03901015073963791.0517022477687051.07546215559990511.11116917129924021.15497873108409551.20070217851619151.24590098569410951.28391641851182641.32155830746856881.38554972855113251.51176768090120591.72325226592125772.03057183689144342.41850553075755942.85218365766593833.28232151213912633.67187949223217654.010144443954784.3031287446198139Saudi Arabia1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.03293930832617241.06525545539148951.09576764964354731.12285100688766271.1457024333709861.16304203891897841.17615440330473551.18986006361317041.2106995906103871.24302647438818941.28912090883432741.34673034401043861.41010878757957351.47100556963874921.52350661276590181.56558150590167471.5991299066930321.62694255821797241.65347686219947841.68198542546814831.71304420477304881.7455089997715671Syria1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.02945523440917631.05914297019830241.08924222138323621.11999376141374981.15152351849839611.18429585290621511.21820467333395491.25215533597895011.28464119977458211.3147939383236081.34127869655309271.36486549975870461.38926409016588241.41958451882935921.45904590589163321.51024817092891081.57100877248989071.63401937704246851.68907200949216011.72931611104458651.76377201243958681.7989144956298173UAE1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.05618827145117231.11429793999218371.17417400960311061.23562771727397421.29881405902469861.36773469995538321.44422689645933741.52421868167028141.60179972521419891.6752589817425761.73379876423887551.78465129770417691.8650748575420512.025276529506262.29664411474576772.6989451413729773.20916325398644233.76343344969105954.27253116250336264.67287370370739374.94055127655829115.0958545207357Yemen1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.02572088532401141.04898895396455671.07134075033052261.09329979229167451.11528335581434291.13805315964468941.16138369494338981.18540481353230341.20989251323973271.2353940692452651.26176924136293511.2890519569090441.31739757187628871.34693074663394621.37767439781497391.40978432358626371.44305087879009621.47686313153966081.51042289736508061.54312594795869581.57461185130343461.6057224033462345Middle East11.02572088532401141.04898895396455671.07134075033052261.09329979229167451.11528335581434291.13805315964468941.16138369494338981.18540481353230341.20989251323973271.2353940692452651.26176924136293511.2890519569090441.31739757187628871.34693074663394621.37767439781497391.40978432358626371.44305087879009621.47686313153966081.51042289736508061.54312594795869581.57461185130343461.6057224033462345

UAE

Qatar

Bahrain

Middle East

Egypt

F5

Figure 5. Income per capita relative to Middle East income per capita 1990-2012

Source: Table B1.

Bahrein199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122.85839031098526024.45205544452107294.35214017551793654.70624601144229884.7865967391786674.51048289684092034.13231062066208393.91761154591851353.97598238938150763.78717765548141033.95337627817747753.80758381307840123.87240260452739183.93638011509102183.68879178000598483.46153934964764433.16743160571827922.98124492733161752.59377267648860422.24869840905544382.26809659612706141.97933666326320591.9198185871899862Egypt199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.298531700139183560.301088471427627290.338448259022087080.390630256525473730.42429967017647430.432886657050853390.432573260791400460.481818041057393120.547404275908512370.538500386773101190.519584895773142260.513655126985510080.458502960296869430.3916950149758810.316275454724100510.290748911310359740.297131492737372220.303258291430735240.302778187484082970.39435304099096730.384774887349439820.331862099951783170.34365334032220857Iran199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.823094413066361550.796884971310509280.637512841469587090.505882485549003950.545712790108826010.654828971735979310.70474768377197750.64349969258598960.657701990607136740.61599547791544340.524283981077169230.605165840982100690.601584725588689690.63602283987069330.656453308790945880.62703273331588860.601613904845056280.667377466635471820.637400462604989280.70759432384827370.702736915478956340.720945485919051390.70168735981650709Iraq199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120121.1115955871830250.14869314310670440.150798184192928120.160751636660231010.158659489593155590.142048212516960230.128253614662966610.139119877437960420.148599784077112110.231480444939143910.288749502961748950.210540211731401720.208610004667336040.219278201721746970.211628564836946810.279773196519998550.477023193918828640.503539446930778230.601962734831490540.578860977522855040.610877675588311960.652304207363794910.70790128707281186Jordan199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.498021242756749920.530176639914099690.632444455751823060.682799465377869170.719873264655554120.675055460443504950.603755208274856070.604083755055623060.68934746445476680.65264590637337860.608403090277203070.649730538510054580.682587835566396130.656472482374952480.626967737190176510.557170052049209440.545545865626254070.532290110349138650.540559927200261580.651338267515970460.600984963013988070.532492277998571790.52599788721385488Kuwait199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120124.99690024725899743.87682791218704196.29660790647795657.7992537826102088.18521779793393388.87984284796876729.11955388887038868.57176668642821767.53127081632764037.40557984990014087.94587997777515397.02629155761170847.20838402070729427.95060439094962768.35379011028464378.94056372234920549.06364785391442328.42606892096724818.07527735120951646.2699907665022116.09580296124903236.36913373419954186.5457235507529576Lebanon199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.512383972781760840.827408674048835780.975762021544213651.34971277727452851.64704496816930911.76765325691368381.80860180672236681.98930725582878232.27736765242682632.13091714419761761.85307449378453581.83071324827881491.85203567267777781.48133936358934081.54512650666498891.26861079892589971.07967600628629821.05526327133506471.00589436701928351.28362018274063421.16379495719927411.045896096718871.0350126326796831Oman199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122.51597873335189662.79434127005232872.91758135264746172.98286013813494672.92504815702380892.73223330546888082.67972575399077152.68991543917504312.52924623101624362.64476217490037512.97294094500893863.00545695613842462.94355619516764122.88670216200264522.79802500496820982.76463350696654062.75416402977605922.70827046624861683.07550271888933712.60735134480629422.69221000226265962.47330838524437492.3746603789712579Qatar199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120126.36711975772411966.89175003023867927.64528721612627847.53833941402447227.56615087004474687.33834831519125167.17182335343238638.40694360986157827.81856163329618878.520234507677345810.49824718492642410.31774015662377111.26834674315181712.04642475193766912.84728171468972812.58733810434009312.52881968882419111.87920868704289711.8560740500372119.83514629480376539.912362721989097710.17445687942330110.025128233536559Saudi Arabia199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120123.08075026320915243.89391040261355273.90549929366166373.85826060543191223.6835676572875763.43544809039055113.35037861918718033.36995161086174513.14067610416035373.19246234628846583.19808142033835723.05499589699033043.07272929261195853.06477685787537363.09644080267942373.15971571288110822.95768273517952672.75949686116926612.76820033856821322.58689054782650412.70230455125004412.80946483898520952.7620653674453552Syria199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.38423206239589530.463214596804284010.465282040268753030.496222745779621890.364222516580784360.354982673813341980.36806448366237460.348420469132251940.384634722724150450.364766077097231080.384236589281754410.425450806220229570.432835131133946560.398200460650497750.390849863202682890.359391061621925860.335421139611028150.343816703155936540.348804922336972520.397794310567651130.366950739641262850.318685961044579970.21347924001285432UAE1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201211.78252355270770713.37799533047483513.44567983654177513.85302284320537513.75696440220627412.90738382904815912.3136681552439612.13621428005360211.75435309471626311.70111114350397912.33306895290608712.10134335111881612.23112152009222912.11443089507581111.52605423009216110.321141004761659.05936602917471137.78521960511773786.46908577034473895.61455812579072954.86347798840008414.63525652262263774.6737240010054402Yemen199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.190465628539711360.218532513917573920.230294302326248060.193237555973721580.14016651621529450.119109026652060380.133561705679096810.14814923418363460.146887431854581390.155829303650170610.17247802526503450.177737978313336490.189551971110066690.185030190853177980.181331434831376450.17541441469849040.166945266690086860.161884291951530030.158663039189194140.166963638875014590.181371276436793710.145086996579316090.15265988458208776

Qatar

Bahrain

Egypt

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

data-Fig 1-3

population index=1 in 1990income per capita index=1 in 1990income per capita relative to Middle East income per capita

Middle EastBahreinEgyptIranIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEYemenAverageBahreinEgyptIranIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEYemenAverageBahreinEgyptIranIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEYemen

yearMiddle EastBahreinEgyptIranIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEYemenAverageBahreinEgyptKuwaitLebanonQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEAverageBahreinEgyptIranIraqJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaUAEYemencountryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)countryyearPopulation totalAdult population aged 15+GDP (current US$)GNI (current US$)Ratio GNI/GDP90% of GNI per capita (current US$)90% of GNI per adult (current US$)

199011111111111111111111111111112.8583903110.29853170010.82309441311.11159558720.49802124284.99690024730.51238397282.51597873346.36711975773.08075026320.384232062411.78252355270.190465628501990495944333772.9946804814229787378.874563542287440.440280.83746229386428.26346602899551.5777106179019905633661434071681.143004943130415154.460642025300066.60790.9743773603671.37102098371110.0940367808019905636186830818430.940558116035029649.097115921678270.1910.99902312791851.06551903453385.295982277601990175175219481540.6708777262427408830.264148657421267.43780.77942400912499.87878654144618.62482699660199031700001705069.5060734159928734.149753944906894.149750.94831117221120.00511190372082.27065940080199020597741338735.0030638918427778571.053125718751329.35791.395651202911237.580528942517290.11054723080199027030191780440.950551612838485397.886523460782156.12731.21923549751152.30560366561749.4003042053019901810103990120.00221462211685045607.846911379937628.22060.97388902115658.210535753210344.143985062601990476517341537.0030604747360439207.653637581428528.757281.030023931314319.081325286519978.174003808801990162060789318572.74481461116778111979.758124756748357.0831.06832304656928.331057111712049.170682694401990124515396609315.128275912308624283.978711954908675.26940.9712627829864.10345000261627.91720456960199018064981248031.0141551650701443695.611453186991998.61281.049023225426497.838801233938355.050680495601990117902495647681.020802115647251908.396955611374045.801530.9936468457428.3401174328894.214213341701990183185724103684928.122133455729750399.031457742516658.0571.00441657862248.91031897363955.79938943491152.30560366560.5123839728228549140.1247636197

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19951.11528335581.13668075431.08576630111.07285926011.16244404671.32334384860.77004710231.12222888561.19031900391.05170224781.14570243341.15152351851.2988140591.11528335580.91135316411.4380971151.32150999180.72504495940.11645969941.23531664321.61953860913.14404133290.98968621441.05036927381.01628052250.84197706190.99835871670.91135316414.51048289680.43288665710.65482897170.14204821250.67505546048.8798428481.76765325692.73223330557.33834831523.43544809040.354982673812.9073838290.119109026701995563730393153.9993175515849468115.185065790426070.610210.98990642519244.467144819713255.3235439428019956116839738026554.917598260159244485.208160300044485.2081.0023404549887.22351244041427.1616283486Iran19956046835235080508.748803790829495171.439290172134834.71230.99276269971342.10572418512313.3906618161019952036313811373418.16009668451290526.527186587138744.150240.7794240091291.1351320084521.2526952130199541950002488490.789985666727446669.01136448931341.01130.95860014331383.56095516332332.35269757360199515861231157101.0034232327191687674.073732074395209.33681.179566181918199.695539629124947.65418317110199530334062079151.0020571211718795352.057912210795352.05791.04198383753622.89644605845285.67468451250199521546001291238.9647064213802600904.500313406047998.7050.9712696975599.85296520689344.082333805501995501154368654.9973260888137911747.884368375020066.325671.029136260715040.323053778120445.9945324596019951856734310939014.0443524142457681255.805145261152175.1191.01967932447041.127907078911951.263288221401995143382408061837.1215087811396706586.826311590958083.83231.0170445291727.55528401321293.98077860160199523463051717289.0149357865743666507.547868966633090.15551.049023225426454.34833968336144.160500241301995150182017454570.836624834258788725.449914073605062.04290.9565172927244.1200884073491.811619500101995204303989120430983.600736456724783721.516465257282513.2671.01868192642049.55153500183413.1773490463622.89644605841.7676532569257192550.1258871896

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20101.5431259482.52349660451.38587855141.32114702091.76750922691.90725552051.452382641.60601608791.54840249423.67187949221.68198542551.7293161114.67287370371.5431259482.90041151532.30143989083.73831493792.47629701951.59392198493.50005894853.53826096766.58780226273.10357030794.51537462412.54411898682.76996184071.19720427452.90041151532.26809659610.38477488730.70273691550.61087767560.6009849636.09580296121.16379495722.69221000239.9123627222.70230455130.36695073964.86347798840.18137127640201012515131002860.0097064623490600094.38320572456866.56240.875774002514794.261969237418462.4085123562020107807570553470823.1316412218887812549.851217726796471.3510.99469583952509.79631659063664.6923564612020107446231456876769.010531422567967404.512379243848255.3880.89747419944583.78802772436001.0346819569020103096238018196827.0919472135488471367.521137081181538.4621.01175531883984.61175738486779.92172817930201060460003924733.0483245826425379366.613226334252606.04990.99655154393920.08391423176038.83806965230201029915802237488.01387978119934674734.616132166317665.0411.101985876539761.49255528453162.1555783350201043410923312011.9671823937124378109.452736615478109.45270.98629202637591.16146317739949.82223042580201028027682034682.9888284358813004375.2654687155212.7440.929848012217560.654214501424189.73371365810201017497131509481.0007207125122249141.251125699413912.7191.004612806964656.016456097374945.9400068194020102725838718883711.2521923526811466666.667533855466666.6671.013371007417626.498589223225443.6171779644020102153264713838123.029805659147033451.852557265681914.35250.96819195442393.53358288543724.42950622050201084415377271589.02818681287421927883.393297548476848.0781.035232346531723.325878127536827.3878137535020102276300813213556.057558631883409718.738229921778859.87470.93847487221183.04228394982038.02828372482010282678644195772655.6305052073118374864.112048718304926.740.98823025736522.76538596279530.47570085157591.16146317731.1637949572444954980.1574066487

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1.1115955871830250.14869314310670440.150798184192928120.160751636660231010.158659489593155590.142048212516960230.128253614662966610.139119877437960420.148599784077112110.231480444939143910.288749502961748950.210540211731401720.208610004667336040.219278201721746970.211628564836946810.279773196519998550.477023193918828640.503539446930778230.601962734831490540.578860977522855040.610877675588311960.652304207363794910.707901287072811860.498021242756749920.530176639914099690.632444455751823060.682799465377869170.719873264655554120.675055460443504950.603755208274856070.604083755055623060.68934746445476680.65264590637337860.608403090277203070.649730538510054580.682587835566396130.656472482374952480.626967737190176510.557170052049209440.545545865626254070.532290110349138650.540559927200261580.651338267515970460.600984963013988070.532492277998571790.525997887213854884.99690024725899743.87682791218704196.29660790647795657.7992537826102088.18521779793393388.87984284796876729.11955388887038868.57176668642821767.53127081632764037.40557984990014087.94587997777515397.02629155761170847.20838402070729427.95060439094962768.35379011028464378.94056372234920549.06364785391442328.42606892096724818.07527735120951646.2699907665022116.09580296124903236.36913373419954186.54572355075295760.512383972781760840.827408674048835780.975762021544213651.34971277727452851.64704496816930911.76765325691368381.80860180672236681.98930725582878232.27736765242682632.13091714419761761.85307449378453581.83071324827881491.85203567267777781.48133936358934081.54512650666498891.26861079892589971.07967600628629821.05526327133506471.00589436701928351.28362018274063421.16379495719927411.045896096718871.03501263267968312.51597873335189662.79434127005232872.91758135264746172.98286013813494672.92504815702380892.73223330546888082.67972575399077152.68991543917504312.52924623101624362.64476217490037512.97294094500893863.00545695613842462.94355619516764122.88670216200264522.79802500496820982.76463350696654062.75416402977605922.70827046624861683.07550271888933712.60735134480629422.69221000226265962.47330838524437492.37466037897125796.36711975772411966.89175003023867927.64528721612627847.53833941402447227.56615087004474687.33834831519125167.17182335343238638.40694360986157827.81856163329618878.520234507677345810.49824718492642410.31774015662377111.26834674315181712.04642475193766912.84728171468972812.58733810434009312.52881968882419111.87920868704289711.8560740500372119.83514629480376539.912362721989097710.17445687942330110.0251282335365593.08075026320915243.89391040261355273.90549929366166373.85826060543191223.6835676572875763.43544809039055113.35037861918718033.36995161086174513.14067610416035373.19246234628846583.19808142033835723.05499589699033043.07272929261195853.06477685787537363.09644080267942373.15971571288110822.95768273517952672.75949686116926612.76820033856821322.58689054782650412.70230455125004412.80946483898520952.76206536744535520.38423206239589530.463214596804284010.465282040268753030.496222745779621890.364222516580784360.354982673813341980.36806448366237460.348420469132251940.384634722724150450.364766077097231080.384236589281754410.425450806220229570.432835131133946560.398200460650497750.390849863202682890.359391061621925860.335421139611028150.343816703155936540.348804922336972520.397794310567651130.366950739641262850.318685961044579970.2134792400128543211.78252355270770713.37799533047483513.44567983654177513.85302284320537513.75696440220627412.90738382904815912.3136681552439612.13621428005360211.75435309471626311.70111114350397912.33306895290608712.10134335111881612.23112152009222912.11443089507581111.52605423009216110.321141004761659.05936602917471137.78521960511773786.46908577034473895.61455812579072954.86347798840008414.63525652262263774.67372400100544020.190465628539711360.218532513917573920.230294302326248060.193237555973721580.14016651621529450.119109026652060380.133561705679096810.14814923418363460.146887431854581390.155829303650170610.17247802526503450.177737978313336490.189551971110066690.185030190853177980.181331434831376450.17541441469849040.166945266690086860.161884291951530030.158663039189194140.166963638875014590.181371276436793710.145086996579316090.15265988458208776

data-Fig 2

yearregionEgypt

Oil countriesEgyptIranRestTotalOil countriesEgyptIranRestTotalyearregionpop_regionincome_regionIranOil countriesRest

1990229000005.64E+0756400000476000001.83E+0812.52040000000003.78E+101.04E+116.63E+104.12E+111990Egypt5.63E+073.78E+10Iran56400000104000000000Oil_c22900000204000000000Other4760000066300000000

1991235000005.75E+0757500000495000001.88E+0812.52080000000003.29E+108.73E+102.95E+103.58E+111991Egypt5.74E+073.29E+10Iran5750000087300000000Oil_c23500000208000000000Other4950000029500000000

1992242000005.83E+0758300000513000001.92E+0812.62240000000003.74E+107.03E+103.23E+103.64E+111992Egypt5.84E+073.74E+10Iran5830000070300000000Oil_c24200000224000000000Other5130000032300000000

1993247000005.90E+0759000000532000001.96E+0812.62220000000004.14E+105.33E+103.40E+103.51E+111993Egypt5.93E+074.14E+10Iran5900000053300000000Oil_c24700000222000000000Other5320000034000000000

1994253000005.97E+0759700000551000002.00E+0812.72260000000004.66E+105.94E+103.29E+103.65E+111994Egypt6.02E+074.66E+10Iran5970000059400000000Oil_c25300000226000000000Other5510000032900000000

1995257000006.05E+0760500000569000002.04E+0812.62460000000005.43E+108.12E+103.68E+104.18E+111995Egypt6.12E+075.43E+10Iran6050000081200000000Oil_c25700000246000000000Other5690000036800000000

1996262000006.14E+0761400000587000002.08E+0812.62740000000006.14E+109.89E+104.19E+104.76E+111996Egypt6.21E+076.14E+10Iran6140000098900000000Oil_c26200000274000000000Other5870000041900000000

1997266000006.25E+0762500000605000002.12E+0812.52880000000007.15E+109.46E+104.59E+105.00E+111997Egypt6.31E+077.15E+10Iran6250000094600000000Oil_c26600000288000000000Other6050000045900000000

1998271000006.37E+0763700000623000002.17E+0812.52610000000007.74E+109.25E+104.86E+104.80E+111998Egypt6.41E+077.74E+10Iran6370000092500000000Oil_c27100000261000000000Other6230000048600000000

1999277000006.49E+0764900000640000002.22E+0812.52900000000008.25E+109.41E+105.56E+105.22E+111999Egypt6.51E+078.25E+10Iran6490000094100000000Oil_c27700000290000000000Other6400000055600000000

2000285000006.59E+0765900000657000002.26E+0812.63490000000009.07E+109.12E+106.62E+105.97E+112000Egypt6.61E+079.07E+10Iran6590000091200000000Oil_c28500000349000000000Other6570000066200000000

2001296000006.69E+0766900000675000002.31E+0812.83380000000008.88E+101.04E+116.39E+105.95E+112001Egypt6.72E+078.88E+10Iran66900000104000000000Oil_c29600000338000000000Other6750000063900000000

2002308000006.77E+0767700000693000002.36E+0813.13490000000007.92E+101.03E+116.59E+105.97E+112002Egypt6.83E+077.92E+10Iran67700000103000000000Oil_c30800000349000000000Other6930000065900000000

2003322000006.85E+0768500000712000002.40E+0813.43990000000007.45E+101.19E+116.84E+106.61E+112003Egypt6.94E+077.45E+10Iran68500000119000000000Oil_c32200000399000000000Other7120000068400000000

2004337000006.93E+0769300000731000002.45E+0813.74870000000007.08E+101.44E+118.05E+107.82E+112004Egypt7.06E+077.08E+10Iran69300000144000000000Oil_c33700000487000000000Other7310000080500000000

2005354000007.02E+0770200000751000002.51E+0814.16240000000008.05E+101.70E+119.95E+109.74E+112005Egypt7.18E+078.05E+10Iran70200000170000000000Oil_c35400000624000000000Other7510000099500000000

2006371000007.10E+0771000000771000002.56E+0814.57550000000001.00E+111.97E+111.41E+111.19E+122006Egypt7.30E+071.00E+11Iran71000000197