Ed Dammers FLIS Workshop

Copenhagen, 29 April 2013

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Using scenarios

Dilemma

‘He who doesn’t know how to care for the future will be dependent on future uncertainties’

(Seneca)

‘Those who pretend to predict the future are lying even if they occasionally speak the truth’

(Arabic saying)

Methods

Prediction Scenarios Speculations

PredictionGegevens: + Theorieën: +

ScenariosGegevens: - Theorieën: +

‘Production space’ ‘Aesthetic space’

SpeculationsGegevens: - Theorieën: -

Scenario characteristics

• Stories about the future• Regarding a strategic policy-issue• For the long-term: 10 to 40 years• In words, images and numbers• In plural: alternative directions• Combining imagination with realism

17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn TuinstraProactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties

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Present Future

Abstra

ct

Con

cre

te

Present situation

Policy scenarios Context

scenarios

Recommen- dations

Scenario-cycle

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Importance of scenarios

Strategic policymaking:• generates high impacts• is confronted with high complexity and uncertainty• runs the risk of suboptimal outcomes or policy-fiascos

Futures studies may be helpful to:• better deal with complexity and uncertainty• improve strategic policymaking and its outcomes

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Importance of scenarios

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Usability of scenarios• Cognition • trends, mutual relations and impacts

• wild cards, conditions and impacts

• alternative policies and impacts

• Communication • input for strategic discussions• stimulate open discussions• structuring discussions

• Commitment • provide support for current policy• inspire to choose alternative

policy • consider other values and views

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Difficulty of using them

World of futurists• Scientific rationality• Exploring uncertainty• Long term orientation• Integrated perspective• Focussed on one study

World of policymakers• Political rationality• Searching for certainty• Short term orientation• Sector perspective• Confronted with many

studies, advices etc.

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Difficulty of using them

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Factors influencing their use

Qualities• Imaginative• Plausible• Comparable• Informative• Understandable

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Factors influencing their use

Communication• Multi target groups: public organisations, NGO’s,

business, citizen groups• Multi languages: stories, images, figures• Multi media: reports, dvd’s, internet, film• Multi techniques: conferences, workshops,

presentations, serious games

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Factors influencing their use

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Factors influencing their use

Institutionalisation• Position: internal or external• Competition: one or more institutes• Status : legalized, commissioned,

independent• Resources: people, expertise, money• Contacts: (in)formal, bilateral, networks

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Factors influencing their use

Contextual factors• Policy issue: physical, social• Policy system: pluralistic, corporatist • Level of conflict: medium, high• External factors: economic tide,

political atmosphere

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Factors influencing their use

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Success factors

• High quality of futures studies• Enough recourses for producers and users• Active involvement of target groups• Intensive and long lasting communication• Adequately using policy momentum• Various futures studies providing

comparable messages