Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view

1

EPOP Conference,

Lancaster,

September 2013

Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view

Roger Mortimore,

Simon Atkinson

& Tom Mludzinski

“I don’t know enough about him... He

doesn’t project an image of a leader”

- Focus group member

“It is all about someone you can relate

to, and this person is abnormal”

- Focus group member

5 In 1999 we tested Hague on achieving

seven short-term objectives

Restore Central Office morale and functionality

Reunite the party behind him as leader

Achieve personal public recognition

Develop image with the public as leader and potential PM

Re-establish credibility of party as an alternative government

Achieve success at elections 1999

Establish basis for further improvement by 2001

– Find and exploit government weaknesses

– Identify issues for general election campaign

1:

Restore morale and functionality of

party apparatus?

2:

Reunite the party behind him as

leader?

8

40%

52%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

More Labour supporters are dissatisfied than

satisfied with Ed

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

September 2013

Net = -12

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – September 2013

9

1

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as leader of the

Labour/Conservative Party?

Satisfaction with leaders of the opposition among

own supporters

HAGUE

BLAIR

MILIBAND

CAMERON

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Leader

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Duncan-Smith

The view

from

Westminster.

..

Q. Who in your

opinion is the

most

impressive

parliamentarian

of any party at

the moment?

Who else

springs to

mind?

Q. Who in your

opinion is the

most

impressive

parliamentarian

of any party at

the moment?

Who else

springs to

mind?

Conservative

MPs, 1999

69%

Base: c

. 40 C

onserv

ativ

e M

Ps S

ourc

e: M

OR

I surv

ey o

f Mem

bers

of P

arlia

ment, W

inte

r 1999

Q. Who in your

opinion is the

most

impressive

parliamentarian

of any party at

the moment?

Who else

springs to

mind?

Labour

MPs, 2013

16% 28%

Base: 4

9 L

abour M

Ps S

ourc

e: Ip

sos M

OR

I surv

ey o

f Mem

bers

of P

arlia

ment, S

um

mer 2

013

Reunite the party behind him as

leader?

3:


16 % “don’t know” if satisfied or not after 3 years

Base: c. 1.000 GB adults in each survey Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

* September 2013


4.

Develop image with public as leader

and potential PM?

19

24

26

28

15

13

24

23

18

6

8

8

8

20

21

20

26

30

16

17

30

7

4

4

3

I don't know what Nigel Faragestands for

I don't know what Nick Cleggstands for

I don't know what Ed Milibandstands for

I don't know what David Cameronstands for

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know

Half don’t know what he stands for


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013

33% 56%

51% 37%

50% 37%

37% 50%

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Low public satisfaction ratings…

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – September 2013 September 2013

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

24%

60%

15%

Net = -36

21


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

How does Ed match up to his predecessors?

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

MILIBAND (2010-2013)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

22





BLAIR (1994-1997)



Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

23



HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)





Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

24 Like him? Like his party?

Which of these statements come closest to your views of .. and the ... Party?

I like ... and I like the ...

Party

I do not like ... and I do not

like the ... Party

I like ...but I do not like

the ... Party

I do not like ... but I like

the ... Party


Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013


27%

16%

11%

41%

5%

23%

7%

26%

37%

8%


Party


like the ... Party


the ... Party


the ... Party

Cameron/Conservative Miliband/Labour





11%

41%

26%

37%


Party


like the ... Party


the ... Party


the ... Party

Do not like Cameron Do not like Miliband

52% 63%





27%

16%

23%

7%


Party


like the ... Party


the ... Party


the ... Party

Like Cameron Like Miliband

43%

30%





27%

16%

11%

41%

5%

23%

7%

26%

37%

8%


Party


like the ... Party


the ... Party


the ... Party

Cameron v Party Miliband v Party

+5 -19

29

40

36

62

50

56

51

54

30

24

39

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+, in each poll

Like him? Like him not? – Best and worst


John Major (Jan ‘97)

% Like % Do not like


Ed Miliband (Aug ‘13)

Margaret Thatcher (Oct ‘85)

30 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Ed Miliband



58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality

Looks after some sections of society more than others




Ed Miliband



58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement








Ed Miliband



58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement





33 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many

leadership qualities



79%

50%

70%

52%

40%

53%

47%

40%

58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

Miliband Cameron



A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement









79%

50%

70%

52%

40%

53%

47%

40%

58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

Miliband Cameron



A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement









79%

50%

70%

52%

40%

53%

47%

40%

58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

Miliband Cameron



A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement





36 Only one in four think he is ready to be PM

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…


Base: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013

Ed Miliband is ready to be

Prime Minister?


37

8

16

6

24

42

5

Only one in four think he is ready to be PM




Ed Miliband is ready to be

Prime Minister?

24%

66%


Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

38 Miliband less convincing than Blair and Cameron

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that Tony Blair/David Cameron/Ed Miliband is ready to be the next Prime Minister?


59

43

24 28

43

66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Blair December 1994

Cameron July 2008

Miliband April 2013

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

Develop image with public as leader

and potential PM?

5:

Re-establish credibility of party as

an alternative government

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-1

0

Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct-1

0

Nov-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Feb-1

1

Ma

r-11

Apr-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct-1

1

No

v-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting intentions since 2010

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Avg. 7pt

Lab lead

May 2013 – Sep 2013

42

10

19

8

23

35

6

Three-fifths think Labour are not ready to govern




Labour is ready to form the next government?

29%

58%


Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

43 Labour are behind previous “governments to be”

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?



66

45

29 25

40

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Labour December 1994

Conservatives July 2008

Labour April 2013

44 Labour are behind previous “governments to be”

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?



66

45

31 29 25

40

57 58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Labour December 1994

Conservatives July 2008

Labour May 2011

Labour April 2013

Re-establish credibility of party as

an alternative government

6:

Achieve success at elections 2013

47 Success in 2013 local elections?

Source: BBC

Estimated national equivalent vote share

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

Local elections 2013

25%

29% 14%

23%

9%

48

40 38

40 39 38

32 34

38 39 36

33 35

46

31 28

25

29 31

33 34

38

32 34 35

37

33

39 40 43

35 37 38

33

25

42 41

29

36 37 39

37

32

38

42 44

38

30

39 40

47

43 44

37 36

30

41

33 30

26

36

26 26 24

22

30

37 39

29

13

17

27

20 21

26 26 27

18 19 17

22 20

25 27

23 24

17

25 25 26

18

25 27 27

23 25 24 23

25 24

16 15 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Local elections 1998-2013

% estimated national equivalent vote share

Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)

49

40 38

40 39 38

32 34

38 39 36

33 35

46

31 28

25

29 31

33 34

38

32 34 35

37

33

39 40 43

35 37 38

33

25

42 41

29

36 37 39

37

32

38

42 44

38

30

39 40

47

43 44

37 36

30

41

33 30

26

36

26 26 24

22

30

37 39

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Local elections 1998-2013



50 Worst local election results are achieved by parties

in government



40 38

40 39 38

32 34

38 39 36

33 35

46

31 28

25

29 31

33 34

38

32 34 35

37

33

39 40 43

35 37 38

33

25

42 41

29

36 37 39

37

32

38

42 44

38

30

39 40

47

43 44

37 36

30

41

33 30

26

36

26 26 24

22

30

37 39

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

51



40 38

40 39 38

32 34

38 39 36

33 35

46

31 28

25

29 31

33 34

38

32 34 35

37

33

39 40 43

35 37 38

33

25

42 41

29

36 37 39

37

32

38

42 44

38

30

39 40

47

43 44

37 36

30

41

33 30

26

36

26 26 24

22

30

37 39

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 matched Labour’s worst local election share in

opposition for at least 40 years

52 But low vote share didn’t stop Labour making a

satisfactory gain of seats

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

-335

+291

-124

+139

Change2013

Source: BBC

+244

-291

-2

Change2009

Achieve success at elections

Establish basis for further improvement by

2015:

- Find and exploit government weaknesses

- Identify issues for general election campaign

56

39%

61%

No better than Cameron on Syria

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is handling the crisis in Syria?

Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: 1,000 British adults 18-75, online, 30th August – 2nd September 2013

Ed Miliband David Cameron

36%

64%

57 Leaders on key issues

In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust

most to deal with...


5%

5%

25%

5%

7%

17%

7%

10%

5%

12%

9%

6%

7%

6%

8%

9%

6%

5%

36%

35%

17%

31%

31%

22%

28%

20%

23%

21%

25%

28%

28%

29%

30%

32%

37%

37%

Social care for the elderly anddisabled

The NHS

Immigration

Pensions

Reducing unemployment

Europe

The benefits system

Crime and anti-socialbehaviour

Managing the economy Cameron

Miliband

Clegg

Farage

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013

58 Leaders on key issues




5%

5%

25%

5%

7%

17%

7%

10%

5%

12%

9%

6%

7%

6%

8%

9%

6%

5%

36%

35%

17%

31%

31%

22%

28%

20%

23%

21%

25%

28%

28%

29%

30%

32%

37%

37%


The NHS

Immigration

Pensions


Europe

The benefits system



Miliband

Clegg

Farage

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013

59

5%

5%

25%

5%

7%

17%

7%

10%

5%

12%

9%

6%

7%

6%

8%

9%

6%

5%

36%

35%

17%

31%

31%

22%

28%

20%

23%

21%

25%

28%

28%

29%

30%

32%

37%

37%


The NHS

Immigration

Pensions


Europe

The benefits system



Miliband

Clegg

Farage

Leaders on key issues



Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-90

Sep

-90

Ma

r-91

Sep

-91

Ma

r-92

Sep

-92

Ma

r-93

Sep

-93

Ma

r-94

Sep

-94

Ma

r-95

Sep

-95

Ma

r-96

Sep

-96

Ma

r-97

Sep

-97

Ma

r-98

Sep

-98

Ma

r-99

Sep

-99

Ma

r-00

Sep

-00

Ma

r-01

Sep

-01

Ma

r-02

Sep

-02

Ma

r-03

Sep

-03

Ma

r-04

Sep

-04

Ma

r-05

Sep

-05

Ma

r-06

Sep

-06

Ma

r-07

Sep

-07

Ma

r-08

Sep

-08

Ma

r-09

Sep

-09

Ma

r-10

Sep

-10

Ma

r-11

Sep

-11

Ma

r-12

Sep

-12

Ma

r-13

Labour has not re-established its lead on

economic credibility….

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


27% 26%

8%

61

26

23

21

21

4

31

29

18

10

5

The previous Labour government

Banks

The state of the global economy

The Coalition government

Local Councils

January 2013

March 2011

From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?

Labour still getting blame for cuts

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013

62 Only 1 in 4 actually think they would do a better

job

Do you think that a Labour government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and Ed Balls as Chancellor of the Exchequer

would do a better or worse job, or about the same, than the present government has done at managing the economy?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

26%

38%

31%

5%

Better job

Don’t know (+2)

Worse job

About the same

Net better = -5

63 Current voting intentions…


How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

September 2013

Labour lead over Conservative = +3

34%

37%

10%

11%

8%

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7-9 September 2013, all certain to vote = 545

Swing = +5%

On uniform swing:

62 Lab gains from

Con

(68 gains needed

for overall majority)

Establish basis for further improvement by

2015:

- Find and exploit government weaknesses

- Identify issues for general election campaign

Conclusion?

66

Morale/functionality of party apparatus

Reunite party behind him as leader


Develop image as potential PM

Re-establish credibility of party

Achieve success at elections

Establish basis for further improvement

Miliband is a weak jockey on a poorly trained horse,

BUT (unlike Hague) the condition of the course is in

his favour and he has already jumped the first few

fences in the lead

68

Thank you

Date post:	29-Nov-2014
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Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view

News & Politics