EDITOR-IN-CHIEF and Business... · Session 2 on “Approaches to Attaining Food and Nutrition...

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

CARLISLE A. PEMBERTON,

Department of Agricultural Economics & Extension,

Faculty of Food and Agriculture,

The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine,

The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.

EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD

Compton Bourne, UWI, St. Augustine, The Republic of Trinidad & Tobago

Carlton G. Davis, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

Vernon Eidman, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, USA

Holman Williams, UWI, St. Augustine, The Republic of Trinidad & Tobago

EDITORIAL COMMITTEE

Govind Seepersad, UWI, St. Augustine, The Republic of Trinidad & Tobago

Edward A. Evans, UF/IFAS, University of Florida, Homestead Florida, USA

Isabella Francis-Granderson, UWI, St. Augustine, The Republic of Trinidad & Tobago

Cover Design: Kavita Butkoon

ISSN 1019 – 035 X

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Editorial

This publication of Volume 9 No. 1 of Farm and Business features the first set of reviewed and

accepted papers that were presented at the 32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference

held in Georgetown, Guyana in August 2017. It also contains abstracts of presentations at the

Conference from students from the University of the Bahamas and from some presenters who did

not submit papers for review. Other papers from this Conference will be published in subsequent

volumes of this Journal as they are reviewed and accepted.

Volume 9 No. 1 also contains information on the 32nd Conference, including the Conference

Communique, the List of Participants, the Conference Programme and the new Executive of the

Caribbean Agro- Economic Society elected at the Conference.

The Society is facing financial stringency in these recessionary times and will seek to explore new

avenues for raising revenue to remain a viable institution. At this time, there is no page charge for

publication in this Journal, but this situation is being reviewed because of the obvious costs

involved in its publication.

Copies of all issues of Farm and Business are available on line at the following websites1,2,3

Members of the Society are urged to visit these websites to obtain relevant information on the

Agricultural Economics of the Caribbean to assist them in their research.

With Farm and Business as an on-line journal, the Society will no longer publish Proceedings of

the West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference series. Papers from the Conferences will be

published in Farm and Business. However all Proceedings of the West Indies Agricultural

Economics Conferences are now available on line at the following website1,2,3. This Conference

series also remains an invaluable source of information on the changing focus of the Economics

of Caribbean Agriculture over the years since 1965.

We do hope you enjoy reading this publication and will submit your articles to the Journal for

review and publication.

Carlisle Pemberton

Editor-In-Chief

Farm and Business

1 http://www.caestt.com/home/publications.php 2 https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/collection/44?ln=en 3 https://econpapers.repec.org/article/agsfabtho/

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Food & Nutrition Security:

The Pathway to Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Caribbean

Table of Contents

Page No.

Editorial…………………………………………………………………………………….... Communiqué for the 32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference ...……..

iii

vii

List of Executive Committee of the CAES (2017 – 2019)……………………….…..…

xii

32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference Programme…………………

xiii

Contributed Papers

Ermanno Affuso Food Security and Climate Change in Guyana.……….……….….……….…..

1

Isabella Francis-Granderson, Carlisle Pemberton, and Afiya De Sormeaux, Satisfaction and Quality of Housing among Older Persons in Rural East Trinidad ……….….……….……….……….….……….………………………….….

13

Donna M. Morrison, Colin Ramsay, Victor Oguledo, and J. Kalu Osiri From Farm to Table: Reducing Mycotoxin Contamination of Food in the Caribbean - A Review of Sustainable Strategies………..…………..........…...

35

Arnold De Mendonca Case Study: Sustainability of Central Mahaicony Perth Village Farmers’ Association ………………...……………………...............................…………....

56

Abstracts

Student Submissions

Factors Affecting the Utilization and Awareness of Local Foods in the Bahamas Latrell Russell, Cyrilia Thompson, Ashleigh Culmer, Marcelite Smith, Iesha Carey, Danielle Hutchison, Krischa Mather, James Seymour and Wantinese Smith …………………………………………………………………………………..

The Effects of Hurricanes on Farm Productivity and Food Security in the Bahamas Lindsia Davis, Cysren Micklewhite and Erecia Hepburn ………………….……..

How to Enhance the Availability of Local Fruits and Vegetables in New Providence Iesha Carey, James Seymour, Erecia Hepburn ………………………….……….

72

73

74

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Farm & Business: Volume No. 9, No. 1, December 2017…

Case Study: The Potential Use and Substitution of Locally Grown Produce into Meals Prepared By Lunch Vendors of a High School in New Providence Troykell Marshall, Stanley B. Northe Jr., Brunett Smith, Keiarj Smith, Erecia Hepburn, Ricarla Rodgers……………………………………………………………

Implication of Marketing Strategies to Increase Local Agriculture Support in the Bahamian College Community by Allana Dixon, Cyrus Bastian, Khayl Seymour, Jasmine Simmons, Kendra Darling and Erecia Hepburn ……………………………………………………….

The Evolution in Banana Farming in Regards to Innovations in Production and Marketing on The Islands of Abaco, Eleuthera, and Grand Bahama by Tamarind Johnson……………………………………………………………….

Peer Submissions Agricultural Insurance, Farmer Security and Food Security Colin M. Ramsay, Victor I. Oguledo, Donna Morrison, J. Kalu Osiri, Akshi Jain, Janvier Degbedji........…………...…..........…………...........…………...….....…...

Local Food Systems: An Economic Development Option to Obtain Food Security, Nutrition Education and Economic Viability Cary Junior ………………………...………………………………………………….

Bahamian Agriculturalist Approaches towards Obtaining Food Security Erecia Hepburn ……...…..........…………...........…………...….....……………….

Food as Medicine: Providing Sustainable Access to Minimally Processed Foods as a Means to Ameliorate Diseased States in the Caribbean Marsha Fridie …………………………………………………………………………

Assessing Food and Nutrition Security through Value Chain Analysis: The Case of the Saint Lucia Broiler Malcolm Xavier Wallace ………………………………………...……………...……

The Caribbean Governments’ Response to Food Security by 2030 Dwane John ………………………………………………………………………….

Root Yield of Drip Irrigated Sugar Beets, an Alternative Fodder Crop Anthony Mele, Touyee Thao, Florence Cassel S. and Dave Goorahoo ………………….

Dormancy Requirements, and Effect of Moisture and Salt Stress on the Germination of Hairy Fleabane (Conyza Bonariensis) Seeds Vivian Maier and Anil Shrestha ………………………………………………..……

Presence of a Glyphosate-Resistant Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus Palmeri) Population in California Jorge A Angeles, Anil Shrestha, Katrina M. Steinhauer, Mala To, Samikshya Budhathoki, Sonia Rios and Bradley Hanson ……………………………………..

75

76

77

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

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Product Innovation: A Sustainability Strategy for Small and Medium Enterprises in St Vincent and the Grenadines Sharin McDowall-Emefiele ………………………………………….……………….

Evaluation of a Community-Based Nutritional and Agricultural Intervention in Guatemala Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Luz Padilla, Manolo Mazariegos .…………………

Consumers’ Attitudes and Practices to Buying Locally Grown Foods in Trinidad Isabella Francis-Granderson, Andrea McDonald, Dianne Buckmire, Kern Rocke, Laura Roberts-Hall …………………………………………………………..

Understanding Local Food Systems Lisa Ramrattan ………………………………………………….......……………….. Supply Response Implications of Trade Liberalization (EU-ACP EPA): The Case of Rice in Guyana Omardath Maharaj, Govind Seepersad, Ardon Iton, Dave Goorahoo……….….

88

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90

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92

List of Participants…………………………………………………………………….… 94

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Communiqué for the 32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference

The 32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference was held at the Ramada Georgetown

Princess Hotel, Providence, East Bank Demerara, Guyana during the period 6th to the 11th August,

2017. This year’s Conference was themed “Food and Nutrition Security: The Pathway to

Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Caribbean”. The Caribbean Agro-Economic Society

(CAES) partnered with the Ministry of Agriculture in Guyana to host the Conference and its

events.

There were 58 registered participants for the Conference (List of Participants) and there were 53

abstract submissions and 44 presentations. Some presentations were delivered in person while

others were presented via a video format to accommodate authors from California State University,

Fresno who were unable to attend the event.

The Opening Session on Monday 7th August was highlighted by an address by the Honourable

Noel Leroy Holder, Minister of Agriculture, Guyana. The first plenary session was moderated by

the Society’s President, Professor Carlisle Pemberton and featured presentations on: “Agricultural

Insurance, Farmer Security, and Food Security” and “Explaining the Margin between the Bulk and

Fine or Flavoured Export Prices for Cocoa”.

Session 2 on “Approaches to Attaining Food and Nutrition Security in the Caribbean” was

moderated by Ermanno Affuso and included a presentation on “An Ex-Post Evaluation of the

CARICOM-EU Banana Trade - Two Decades after WTO”.

The Opening Ceremony with a Reception was held at the Impeccable Banquet Hall, hosted by the

Ministry of Agriculture, Guyana. This event featured artistes who gave a cultural display through

song and dance. There were brief addresses by Acting Permanent Secretary, Ministry of

Agriculture Ms. Joylyn Esther-Burrowes and the President of the Society, Prof. Carlisle A.

Pemberton. The ceremony was chaired by Mr. Arnold DeMendonca, who was the Head of the

Local Organizing Committee for the Conference.

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On Tuesday 8th August, Sessions 3 to 6 were held. Session 3 was entitled “Environmental

Challenges to Achieving Food and Nutrition Security” and was moderated by Govind Seepersad.

The presentations were: “The Effects of Hurricanes on Farm Productivity and Food Security in the

Bahamas” and “Dormancy Requirements, and Effect of Moisture and Salt Stress on the

Germination of Hairy Fleabane (Conyza bonariensis) Seeds”. Parallel session 4A: “Environmental

and Sustainability Challenges to achieving Food and Nutrition Security” was moderated by Arnold

De Mendonca.

Parallel session 4B entitled “Improving Caribbean Food and Nutrition through Increased

Utilization of Local Foods” was moderated by Ida Sealy-Adams. Presentations for this session

included “Evaluation of a Community-based Nutritional and Agricultural Intervention in

Guatemala”, “Consumers’ Attitudes and Practices to Buying Locally Grown Foods in Trinidad”

and “Rethinking Caribbean Food and Nutrition Security Utilising Local Foods”.

Session 5 was a continuation of Session 4B and was moderated by Hazel Patterson-Andrews. The

presentations for this session were “Improving the Utilization of Tomatoes through Agronomic

Research to Increase Food Security in Barbados” and “How to Enhance the Availability of Local

Fruits and Vegetables in New Providence, The Bahamas”.

Session 6 “Propelling Caribbean Agricultural Development through School Feeding Programs

(SFP)” was moderated by Carel Ligeon. Presentations included: “Case Study: The Potential Use

and Substitution of Locally Grown Produce into Meals Prepared by Lunch Vendors of a High

School in New Providence, the Bahamas” and “An Illustrative Example of Seed-to-Supper

Programs in Caribbean Areas”.

The Annual General Meeting of the Caribbean Agro-Economic Society was held on Tuesday 8th

August which elected the new Executive (List of Executive) of the Society and appointed local

representatives for the various countries. It was also agreed to hold the 33rd West Indies

Agricultural Economics Conference in Tobago.

ix


The Field Trip for the Conference took place on Wednesday 9th August from approximately 6:00

a.m to 5:30 p.m. The first site visited was the Blairmont Sugar Estate. Descriptions of the sugar

factory and its operations were given by the senior management staff of Blairmont Sugar estate,

and they were followed by a tour of the fields and the factory.

The next stop was the Fisherman’s Depot/Landing Site at the Berbice River. The President of the

Fisherman’s Association addressed the tour group and answered questions about the operations of

the fishermen. At the Mahaica/Mahaicony Abary Irrigation Scheme, the tour group was given a

brief lecture on the current operations. Afterwards the fields and watercourses were toured. Upon

arriving at the SAJ Rice Mill – West Coast Berbice, the tour group was greeted and briefed on the

company’s operations by management staff. The group then toured the factory’s operations and

its adjacent environs.

Finally the participants visited the Perth Mahaicony Farmer’s Association, where products of the

association’s members were displayed and sampled. Brief addresses were delivered by members

of the Association.

On Thursday 10th August Sessions 7 to 10 were held. Sessions 7 and 8 focused on Agriculture in

Guyana and were moderated by Edward A. Evans and Jean David. The presentations included:

“An Evaluation of the Relative Profitability of Coconut Farming in Guyana”, “Case Study:

Sustainability of Central Mahaicony Perth Village Farmers’ Association” “Food Security and

Climate Change in Guyana” and “Supply Response Implications of Trade Liberalization (EU-ACP

EPA): The Case of Rice in Guyana”.

Parallel Session 9A, “Innovations in Domestic Food Marketing in the Caribbean” was moderated

by Edric Harry. Presentations included “Implication of Marketing Strategies to Increase Local

Agriculture Support in the Bahamian College Community”

Parallel Session 9B, “Mobilizing Agricultural Development through Technology” was moderated

by Winston Ramautarsing. The presentations for this session were “Precision Agriculture

Techniques for Crop Management in Trinidad and Tobago: Methodology & Preliminary

x



Findings”, “Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Changes in Soil Salinity for Validation of “CSUID-II”

Hydro-Salinity Model for Optimizing Soil Leaching Fractions” and “Digital Elevation Modelling

of Agricultural Fields for Irrigation Management”. Session 10 was a continuation of Session 9B

and was moderated by Dave Goorahoo. Presentations for this session included “Envisioning Food

Security in 2030 Via New Technologies: The Case of the Caribbean”, “Using Satellite Imagery

for Estimating Crop Evapotranspiration”, “Analytics for Smartfarming (Soil Library for Sensors)”

and “An Ex-Post Evaluation of the CARICOM-EU Sugar Trade - Two Decades after WTO”.

The Banquet and Awards Ceremony were held from 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. at the Conference

Hotel, where the Lifetime Contributor Award of the Society was presented to Dr. Carel Ligeon for

his longstanding contributions to the Society and its events.

On Friday 11th August Sessions 11 and 12 were held. Parallel Session 11A was entitled

“Participation, Perceptions and Behaviour – Impact on Food Security” was moderated by Isabella

Francis-Granderson. The presentations for this session were “Factors Influencing the Level of

Participation among Users of the Local Farmers’ Markets – Consumers”, “Are Cocoa Farmers in

Trinidad Happy? Exploring Factors Affecting their Happiness”, and “Factors Influencing

Purchasing Behaviour for Clothing by Adolescents and the Implications for their Food

Purchasing”.

Parallel Session 11B was entitled “Climate Change and Agricultural Development” and was

moderated by Arnold De Mendonca. Presentations included “The Effects of Climate Change and

Aquaculture Production in Jamaica”, “Using Growing Degree Days to Estimate Crop Water

Requirements for Processing Tomato”, and “Leveraging Climate-Smart Agriculture for

Sustainable Farming Livelihoods: A Caribbean Perspective”.

Session 12 was entitled “Extension and Education: Contributions to Sustainable Agricultural

Development” and was moderated by Carlisle Pemberton. The presentations carried for this

session were “Impact of National Culture on Food Security”, “Integration of Scholarly Research,

University Services and Experiential Learning Opportunities for Teaching Enhancement”,

“Student Perceptions of International Education and Study Abroad: A Pilot Study at the Faculty

xi


of Food and Agriculture, UWI, Trinidad” and “Optimizing Crop Water Use Efficiency by

Recycling Carbon Dioxide Emissions”.

The Closing Ceremony was held from 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. at the Conference Hotel. The 32nd

West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference was a very successful and enjoyable one and the

Society wishes to thank its co-host the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of Guyana as

well as its generous sponsors for their vital contributions.

xii



List of Executive

Position Name

President Prof. Carlisle A. Pemberton

Vice President Dr. Erecia Hepburn

Director of Publications Dr. Govind Seepersad

Treasurer Dr. Isabella Francis-Granderson

Secretary Dr. Hazel Patterson-Andrews

Assistant Secretary Ms. Savita Maharajh

Elected Members

Dr. Ermanno Affuso Prof. Edward A. Evans

Mr. Winston Ramautarsing Mr. Arnold De Mendonca

Dr. Ronald M. Gordon Ms. Donna Morrison

Dr. Carel Ligeon

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32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics

Conference Programme

SUNDAY 6th August, 2017

4:00 - 7:00 pm REGISTRATION – Ramada Georgetown Princess Hotel

MONDAY 7th August, 2017

8:00 - 9:00 am REGISTRATION – Ramada Georgetown Princess Hotel

SESSION 1

Moderator: Carlisle Pemberton

9:05 – 9: 15 am

Brief Statement

Honourable Noel Leroy Holder

Minister of Agriculture, Guyana

9:15 – 9: 45 am

Agricultural Insurance, Farmer Security, and Food Security

by Colin M. Ramsay, Victor I. Oguledo, Donna Morrison, J. Kalu Osiri,

Akshi Jain, Janvier Degbedji

9:45 - 10:15 am

Explaining the Margin between the Bulk and Fine or Flavoured Export

Prices for Cocoa

by Andrah Xavier, Carlisle Pemberton, Hazel Patterson-Andrews, Afiya

De Sormeaux

10:15 - 11:00 am COFFE BREAK

SESSION 2 - Approaches to Attaining Food and Nutrition Security in the Caribbean

Moderator: Ermanno Affuso

11:00 - 11:30 am

An Ex-Post Evaluation of the CARICOM-EU Banana Trade - Two

Decades after WTO

by Govind Seepersad, Omardath Maharaj, Ardon Iton, Dave Goorahoo,

Srinivasa Konduru

11:30 - 12:00 pm

Microbial Survey of Ready-to-Eat Salads Sold at Popular Food

Establishments in Trinidad

by Narita Chandrawattie Singh, Neela Badrie

12:00 - 12:30 pm LUNCH

7:00 - 9:00 pm OPENING CEREMONY AND RECEPTION

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TUESDAY 8th August, 2017

SESSION 3 - Environmental Challenges to Achieving Food and Nutrition Security

Moderator: Govind Seepersad

9:00 - 9:30 am

The Effects of Hurricanes on Farm Productivity and Food Security in the

Bahamas

by Lindsia Davis, Cysren Micklewhite

9:30 - 10:00 am Root Yield of Drip Irrigated Sugar Beets, an Alternative Fodder Crop

by Anthony Mele, Touyee Thao, Florence Cassel S., Dave Goorahoo

10:00 - 10: 30 am

Dormancy Requirements, and Effect of Moisture and Salt Stress on the

Germination of Hairy Fleabane (Conyza bonariensis) Seeds

by Vivian Maier, Anil Shrestha

10:30 - 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK

PARALLEL SESSION 4A - Environmental & Sustainability Challenges to Achieving

Food and Nutrition Security

Moderator: Arnold De Mendonca

11:00 - 11:30 am

Data Analysis on the Cost of Production of Pumpkin, Trinidad and

Tobago

by Anil Seepersad, Carlisle Pemberton, Hazel Patterson-Andrews

11:30 - 12:00 pm

Presence of a Glyphosate-Resistant Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus

palmeri) Population in California

by Jorge A. Angeles, Anil Shrestha, Katrina M. Steinhauer, Mala To,

Samikshya Budhathoki, Sonia Rios, Bradley Hanson

12:00 - 12:30 pm

Product Innovation: A Sustainability Strategy for Small and Medium

Enterprises in St. Vincent and the Grenadines

by Sharin McDowall-Emefiele

12:30 - 1:30 pm LUNCH

xv


PARALLEL SESSION 4B - Improving Caribbean Food and Nutrition through

Increased Utilization of Local Foods

Moderator: Ida Sealey-Adams

11:00 - 11:30 am

Evaluation of a Community-based Nutritional and Agricultural

Intervention in Guatemala

by Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Luz Padilla, Manolo Mazariegos

11:30 - 12:00 pm

Consumers’ Attitudes and Practices to Buying Locally Grown Foods in

Trinidad

by Isabella Francis-Granderson, Andrea McDonald, Dianne Buckmire,

Kern Rocke, Laura Roberts-Hall

12:00 - 12:30 pm Rethinking Caribbean Food and Nutrition Security Utilising Local Foods

by Ronald M. Gordon, Edward A. Evans

12:30 - 1:30 pm LUNCH

SESSION 5 - Improving Caribbean Food and Nutrition through Increased Utilization of

Local Foods cont'd

Moderator: Hazel Patterson-Andrews

1:30 - 2:00 pm

Improving the Utilization of Tomatoes through Agronomic Research to

Increase Food Security in Barbados

by Evangeline Ragoonath-Devonish, Anthony Kellman

2:00 - 2:30 pm

How to Enhance the Availability of Local Fruits and Vegetables in New

Providence

by Iesha Carey, James Seymour, Erecia Hepburn

2:30 - 3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

SESSION 6 - Propelling Caribbean Agricultural Development through School Feeding

Programs (SFP)

Moderator: Carel Ligeon

3:30 - 4:00 pm

Case Study: The Potential Use and Substitution of Locally Grown

Produce into Meals Prepared by Lunch Vendors of a High School in New

Providence

by Troykell Marshall, Stanley B. Northe Jr., Brunett Smith, Keiarj Smith,

Erecia Hepburn, Ricarla Rodgers

4:00 - 4:30 pm An Illustrative Example of Seed-to-Supper Programs in Caribbean Areas

by Marco Giliberti

4:50 - 7:15 pm CAES GENERAL MEETING

xvi



WEDNESDAY 9th August, 2017

SESSION 9 - Field Trip

6:00 am DEPART Hotel

5:30 pm ARRIVE at Hotel

THURSDAY 10th August, 2017

SESSION 7 – Guyana Session #1

Moderator: Edward A. Evans

9:00 - 9:30 am

An Evaluation of the Relative Profitability of Coconut Farming in

Guyana

by Ida Sealey-Adams, Carlisle Pemberton, Afiya De Sormeaux, Hazel

Patterson-Andrews

9:30 - 10:00 am

Case Study: Sustainability of Central Mahaicony Perth Village Farmers’

Association

by Arnold De Mendonca

10:00 - 10: 30 am Food Security and Climate Change in Guyana

by Ermanno Affuso


SESSION 8 – Guyana Session #2

Moderator: Jean David

11:00 - 11:30 am

From Farm to Table: Reducing Mycotoxin Contamination of Food in the

Caribbean - A Review of Sustainable Strategies

by Donna M. Morrison, Colin Ramsay, Victor Oguledo, J. Kalu Osiri

11:30 - 12:00 pm

Supply Response Implications of Trade Liberalization (EU-ACP EPA):

The Case of Rice in Guyana

by Omardath Maharaj, Govind Seepersad, Ardon Iton, Dave Goorahoo

12:00 - 12:30 pm

Exploring the Talent Needs for Food Safety Professionals in Established

Food Processing Companies in Trinidad

by Dharamdeo Singh, Janelle Yarde Blackman

12:30 - 1:30 pm LUNCH

xvii


PARALLEL SESSION 9A - Innovations in Domestic Food Marketing in the Caribbean

Moderator: Edric Harry

1:30 - 2:00 pm

Implication of Marketing Strategies to Increase Local Agriculture

Support in the Bahamian College Community

by Allana Dixon, Cyrus Bastian, Khayl Seymour, Jasmine Simmons,

Kendra Darling, Erecia Hepburn, Shontes Hall

2:00 - 2:30 pm Bahamian Agriculturalist Approaches towards Obtaining Food Security

by Erecia Hepburn


THURSDAY 10th August, 2017

PARALLEL SESSION 9B - Mobilizing Agricultural Development through Technology

Moderator: Winston Ramautarsing

1:30 - 2:00 pm

Precision Agriculture Techniques for Crop Management in Trinidad and

Tobago: Methodology & Preliminary Findings

by Govind Seepersad, Shivani Seepersad, Terry Sampson, Dave

Goorahoo

2:00 - 2:30 pm

Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Changes in Soil Salinity for Validation of

“CSUID-II” Hydro-Salinity Model for Optimizing Soil Leaching

Fractions

by Amninder Singh, Sharon E. Benes, Nigel Quinn, Florence Cassel S.

2:30 - 3:00 pm

Digital Elevation Modeling of Agricultural Fields for Irrigation

Management

by Balaji Sethuramasamyraja and Huy Le


SESSION 10 - Mobilizing Agricultural Development through Technology cont'd

Moderator: Dave Goorahoo

3:30 - 4:00 pm

Envisioning Food Security in 2030 Via New Technologies: The Case of

the Caribbean

by Mark D. Wenner

4:00 - 4:30 pm

Using Satellite Imagery for Estimating Crop Evapotranspiration

by Dave Goorahoo, Florence Cassel-Sharma, Touyee Thao, Forrest S

Melton, Lee Johnson

xviii



4:30 – 5:00 pm

Analytics for Smartfarming (Soil Library for Sensors)

by Balaji Sethuramasamyraja, Arthish Bhaskar, Bo Liu, Chandra Krintz,

Rich Wolski

5:00 – 5:30 pm

An Ex-Post Evaluation of the CARICOM-EU Sugar Trade - Two

Decades after WTO

by Govind Seepersad, Ardon Iton, Omardath Maharaj, Dave Goorahoo,

Srinivasa Konduru

6:00 - 10:00 pm BANQUET & AWARDS CEREMONY

FRIDAY 11th August, 2017

PARALLEL SESSION 11A - Participation, Perceptions & Behaviour - Impact on Food

Security

Moderator: Isabella Francis-Granderson

8:30 - 9:00 am

Factors Influencing the Level of Participation Among Users of the Local

Farmers’ Markets – Consumers

by Christopher Alexander, Hazel Patterson-Andrews, Carlisle Pemberton

9:00 - 9:30 am

Are Cocoa Farmers in Trinidad Happy? Exploring Factors Affecting their

Happiness

by Savita Maharajh, Carlisle Pemberton, Hazel Patterson-Andrews

9:30 - 10:00 am

Modelling Farmers’ Perception and Knowledge and Willingness to Pay

for Soil Testing Services in Northern Haiti

by Sènakpon Kokoye, Joseph J. Molnar, Curtis M. Jolly, Dennis

Shannon, Gobena Huluka

10:00 - 10: 30 am Purchasing Clothing Behaviours among Adolescents in Trinidad

by Margaret Gordon, Carlisle Pemberton


FRIDAY 11th August, 2017

PARALLEL SESSION 11B - Climate Change and Agricultural Development

Moderator: Arnold De Mendonca

8:30 - 9:00 am The Effects of Climate Change and Aquaculture Production in Jamaica

by Carel Ligeon, Curtis M. Jolly

9:00 - 9:30 am

Using Growing Degree Days to Estimate Crop Water Requirements for

Processing Tomato

by Touyee Thao, Florence Cassel S., Dave Goorahoo

xix


9:30 - 10:00 am

Leveraging Climate-Smart Agriculture for Sustainable Farming

Livelihoods

A Caribbean Perspective

by Tigerjeet Ballayram, Martina Duncan

10:00 - 10:30 am

Postharvest Application of Beeswax and Cassava Starch to extend the

shelf life of Mango (Mangifera indica)

by Tandika Harry, Donna Morrison


SESSION 12 - Extension and Education: Contributions to Sustainable Agricultural

Development

Moderator: Carlisle Pemberton

11:00 - 11:30 am

Impact of National Culture on Food Security

by J. Kalu Osiri, Colin Ramsay, Victor Oguledo, Donna Morrison

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and the Role of Investment

by J. Kalu Osiri, Uchechukwu Jarrett, Theo Udeigwe, Victor Oguledo,

Colin Ramsay

11:30 - 12:00 pm

Integration of Scholarly Research, University Services and Experiential

Learning Opportunities for Teaching Enhancement

by Florence Cassel S., Dave Goorahoo, Govind Seepersad

12:00 - 12:30 pm

Student Perceptions of International Education and Study Abroad: A

Pilot Study at the Faculty of Food and Agriculture, UWI, Trinidad

by Ashley Hines, Govind Seepersad, Wendy-Ann Isaac, Terry Sampson,

Dave Goorahoo, Nequesha Dalrymple

12:30 - 1:00 pm

Optimizing Crop Water Use Efficiency by Recycling Carbon Dioxide

Emissions

by Florence Cassel S., Dave Goorahoo, Shawn Ashkan, Bardia

Dehghanmanshadi

1:00 - 2:00 pm CLOSING CEREMONY

2:00 - 2:30 pm LUNCH

CONTRIBUTED PAPERS

Food Security and Climate Change in Guyana 1


Food Security and Climate Change in Guyana

Ermanno Affuso

Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Finance, Mitchell College of Business, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama

.

Abstract

This study uses a nonparametric simultaneous equation statistical model to assess the potential impact of climate change on the prevalence of undernourishment and dietary adequacy in Guyana. Given the limited data availability, the Generalized Maximum Entropy procedure is used as an extremely precise and robust technique to estimate a simultaneous equation statistical model that links the annual domestic production of food, climate anomalies, economic and food security indicators. While population growth, per capita income and food price are the main determinants of food security and dietary adequacy in the country, results of the analysis reveal also that a 100mm increase in annual rainfall anomaly (normal 1900-1999) could decrease the

domestic production of food by 12.61% and the dietary adequacy by 0.016 percentage points.

Keywords: Food Security, Climate Change, Caribbean Agricultural Production, Maximum Entropy

Econometrics.

JEL: C14, C39, Q19, Q59.

Introduction

In the past 40 years, food security has been used to describe consumer’s access to adequate dietary energy requirements, nutritional values and food preferences (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009). With the increasing trend in population growth, the demand for food is expected to increase. Access to food could be exacerbated by the competing demand for land, energy, and water in addition to the unsustainable exploitation of renewable resources (Godfray et al., 2010). Change in regional rainfall patterns (floods vs. droughts) and temperatures (warmer vs. cooler phases), associated with the current global climate change, may affect the length of growing seasons and conditions of several staple food commodities around the world (Gregory et al., 2005). Lobell et al. (2008) conducted a climatic risk analysis of agricultural productivity in 12 food-insecure regions concluding that investments aimed to favor adaptation to climate change are crucial to ensure

food security particularly in South Africa and South-Eastern Asia.

Chalinor et al. (2014) conducted a metanalytical study using over 1,700 published crop yields simulations under different climatic scenarios and argue that without adaptation, wheat, rice, and maize could experience a decreased productivity between 7% and 15% with 2-Celsius increase in global temperature. Higher temperatures, with subsequent large-scale drought, may crowd out the ability of food-insecure countries to purchase grain in international markets (Brown

and Funk, 2008).

The impact of climate change on the production of food could be even more detrimental when other climate change driven processes such as ozone depletion and air quality are taken




into account (Tai et al., 2014). Also, the increase in carbon dioxide could increase the further restrict food access for some economies. Most recently, de Moraes Sá et al. (2017) argue that low-carbon agricultural practices could increase the production of food and meat in South America

and therefore be a viable solution of adaptation to climate change.

It seems clear that climate change is an important determinant of food security and is currently posing serious threats to the first targets of the millennium development goals: eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. Wheeler and Von Braun (2013) argues that the impact of climate change on food security is not very evident at the regional level. Therefore, there is the need to conduct high-resolution studies at a larger scale to have a better understanding of this

environmental process.

The 32nd West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, held in Georgetown, Guyana, aimed to find possible solutions to food and nutrition security to ensure a sustainable agricultural development in the Caribbean. Food and nutrition security, a fundamental human right according to the World Health Organization, has been a topic of research of several transdisciplinary studies that have been conducted in many developing countries over the past years (http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/foodsecurity/en/ last accessed: 07/17/2017). Inspired by this debate, this is the first research that attempts to explain the relationship between climate change and food and nutrition security in Guyana. While the majority of the studies conducted on this topic are of normative nature, the current study uses the positive economic approach as an attempt to find empirical evidence of a potential relationship between climate change and food security in Guyana. The manuscript is organized as follows: the next section presents the discussion of the data and the derivation of the empirical and econometric models; the third

section discusses the results of the analysis and the last fourth section concludes.

Data and Empirical Model

Time series data used in this study come from multiple sources. Annual agricultural, economic and food security data include: food gross production index (2004-2006=100); producer price index (2004-2006=100); real per capita gross domestic product (2005=100); prevalence of undernourishment; Dietary Energy Supply (DES) as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement of the country (proxy for dietary adequacy); arable land (as proxy for agricultural land); chemical production factors (fungicides, herbicides, insecticides) and agricultural credit. These data are available at the FAOSTAT data repository of the Food and Agricultural

Organization of the United Nations.

The annual population of Guyana is available at the World Development Indicator data repository of the World Bank. Two proxies for climate change are temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies (normal 1900-1999). These variables were constructed as deviations of annual temperatures and rains from a 1900-1999 historical mean. Annual data on temperature and precipitation for the country representative climatic record station (fig. 1) at the Georgetown Botanical Gardens, Guyana (LON -58.25, LAT 6.75) are available in CRUTEM4, a geospatial component of the free software Google Earth® developed by Osborne and Jones (2014).



Fig.1 – CRUTEM4 Climatic Record Station (Georgetown, Guyana)

Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b illustrate the annual data on rainfall and temperature anomalies, respectively. From a graphical analysis of figure 2a, the precipitation anomaly appears to be a well-behaved time series (stationary) with a declining trend of a small magnitude. On the contrary, fig. 2b shows an increasing trend of the temperature anomaly compared to the 1900-1999

historical mean (26.6 °C).




Fig. 2a – Precipitation Anomaly in Guyana.

Fig. 2b – Temperature Anomaly in Guyana.

Limited data availability is the main limitation of the current study that could be overcome with superior information theoretical methods of statistical inference as explained in the next subsection. Except for the constructed climate change proxies, the remaining data is made of 11

annual observations. The entire dataset used for this study is reported in Table 1.



Table 1. Full dataset: Economic, Agricultural, Environmental and Food Security Indicators.

year Dietary adequacya

Agricultural Creditb

Landc Food Indexd

Fungicidese Herbicidese Insecticidese

2001 1.19 43.67 450.00 104.07 8.99* 221.20* 59.01*

2002 1.18 36.62 450.00 102.55 10.39* 225.00* 62.64*

2003 1.17 18.42 450.00 110.05 5.63* 226.70* 60.28*

2004 1.17 16.36 450.00 108.09 3.57 212.77 73.34

2005 1.16 18.93 420.00 94.32 11.88 194.12 64.18

2006 1.16 17.76 420.00 97.59 4.63 290.52 47.44

2007 1.15 16.51 420.00 97.46 1.50 199.24 45.61

2008 1.14 23.76 420.00 96.61 14.19 195.17 23.70

2009 1.14 28.64 420.00 103.65 4.40 224.13 35.94

2010 1.15 37.44 420.00 104.65 5.53 173.87 32.07

2011 1.15 54.70 420.00 109.81 23.68 281.46 95.40

year Population Food Pricef

Rainfallg

Per capita GDPh

Temperaturem Prevalence of Undernourishmentn

2001 743,163 66.76 -76.20 1,747.20 -0.03 0.10

2002 743,107 67.64 -23.23 1,765.69 -0.70 0.09

2003 742,537 71.93 -55.58 1,749.29 0.90 0.09

2004 742,162 72.09 17.79 1,807.82 -0.13 0.10

2005 742,495 94.22 39.83 1,771.65 -0.20 0.10

2006 743,705 133.69 58.76 1,859.50 0.01 0.10

2007 745,638 156.36 60.24 1,984.50 -0.14 0.11

2008 748,096 197.49 35.51 2,017.54 0.06 0.11

2009 750,749 182.26 -15.64 2,076.76 -0.01 0.12

2010 753,362 174.49 16.15 2,160.61 0.60 0.12

2011 755,883 197.62 27.13 2,269.69 -0.39 0.12

Notes: aDietary energy supply as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement of the country; bmillion US$ (2005=100); cSquare Kilometers; dFood Production Index (2004-2006=100); eMetric Tons of active ingredients; fProducer Price Index as a proxy for Food Price Index; gRainfall Anomaly (Normal 1900-1999) expressed in millimiters; hReal per capita Gross Domestic Product (2005=100); mTemperature anomaly expressed in Celsius degrees; nPrevalence of undernourishment as a percentage of undernourished people; * Missing data were imputed with the multivariate chain equation algorithm of Buuren and Groothuis-Oudshoorn (2011).




The following simultaneous equation system model is used to assess the relationship

between food security and climate change:

(1) Ut = β10 + β11t + β12ln(yt) + β13ln(GDPt) + β14ln(Pt) + β15ln(POPt) + ε1t

(2) DESt = β20 + β21t + β22ln(yt) + β23ln(GDPt) + β24ln(Pt) + β25ln(POPt) + ε2t

(3) ln(yt) = β30 + β31t + β32TMPt+ β33RAINt + β34ln(LANDt) + β35ln(Ft) + β36ln(Ht) + β37ln(It)

+ β38ln(Kt) + ε3t

where the prevalence of undernourishment (Ut), expressed as the percentage of undernourished people, depends on the national production of food (yt), per capita real GDP

(2005=100), a producer price index Pt (a proxy for food price) and the annual population (POP t). Along the same line, the dietary energy supply (DESt), expressed as the percentage of the

average dietary energy requirement of the country, is hypothesized to be affected by the same variables as the prevalence of undernourishment. Finally, the last equation (3) attempts to model the national production of food (yt) that is exogenously affected by climate change, i.e. temperature anomaly TMPt and precipitation anomaly RAINt expressed in millimeters/year and °C/year, respectively; arable land (LANDt) expressed in Km2, fungicides (Ft), herbicides (Ht) and insecticides (It) expressed in metric tons of active ingredients and agricultural credit (Kt) expressed in million US$ (2005=100). A trend variable (t) is added to each equation in an attempt to capture structural changes of the Guyanese Society that may have impacted food production and security

between 2001 and 2011.

Econometric Model

The total number of parameters that need to be estimated is 18 while the total number of annual data points is 11. Using a seemingly unrelated regression technique, by stacking the data matrix in three block diagonal matrices of 11 observation each, would consist of statistical analysis with only 15 degrees of freedom (=33-18). Given the problem of "micronumerosity”, Ordinary Least Square and Maximum Likelihood estimation techniques may still be empirically viable but could produce parameter estimates that are potentially biased and inefficient. Golan, Judge and Miller (1996) propose the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator as a robust inferential econometric technique in the presence of limited data. GME is a highly precise information theory based approach to statistical inference that is based on the principle of maximum entropy postulated by Shannon (1948). Jaynes (1957) argues that the maximum entropy estimator is the best-unbiased estimator given limited available information. Other strengths of the GME estimator that makes it a superior statistical approach for the current study include: (i) one stage simultaneous estimation of (1), (2) and (3); (ii) no need to make distributional assumption on the white noises; (iii) GME is robust in the presence of multicollinearity. Also, the asymptotic

properties of the GME estimator have been demonstrated by Golan, Judge and Miller (1996).

The GME approach is similar to a Bayesian technique where based on a set of (often uninformative) prior assumptions on the support points of parameter space; it is possible to recover simultaneously the probability distributions of parameters and data given the available information (priors and data). The estimated probabilities that better represent the reality with minimum loss of information are the one with the largest entropy. The GME estimator has been widely used to conduct statistical inference in several disciplines, including agricultural and applied economics (Golan, Perloff and Shen, 2001; Affuso and Hite, 2013).



After solving for the endogenous jointly-determined variable yt, we rewrite the

simultaneous equations statistical model (SESM) stacked in matrix form as:

(4) [

𝒚1𝒚2𝒚3] = [

𝑿1𝑿2

𝑿3

] [𝜷1𝜷2𝜷3

] = [

𝜺1𝜺2𝜺3]

or in compact form, for the ith equation (with i=1,2,3) as

(5) yi = Xiβi + εi,

with yi and εi being 11x1 vectors and Xi and βi being 11xK and Kx1 vectors, respectively.

Golan, Judge and Miller (1996) treat the β parameters probabilistically and reparametrize (5) in terms of a vector of probabilities q and w of the support points of the parameters Z and white

noise V to maximize the joint entropy:

(6) max H(qi,wi,ξ) = -qi’ln(qi) -wi’ln(wi)

Subject to

(7) yi = XiZiqi + Viwi

(8) 1Ki = (IKi ⊗ 1M) qi

(9) 1T = (IT ⊗ 1R) wi

(10) (Viwi)'(Vjwj)/T = ξij{[(Viwi)'(Viwi)/T][(Viwi)'(Vjwj)/T)]}1/2

where i =1,2,3 is the equation’s index with i ≠ j; Ki is the number of parameters that need to be recovered; T=11 is the length of each time series; IKi and IT are identity matrices of dimension Ki x Ki and T x T, respectively; M and R are the number of support points for parameters and error

terms, and ⊗ is the Kronecker product. Consistency constraint (7) is the reparametrization of equation (5) of the SESM; (8) and (9) are the support points’ probability normalization constraints and (10) is a consistency constraint of the unknown covariance matrix that is recovered simultaneously within the optimization problem through the entropy maximizing ξ ij (Golan, Judge and Miller, 1996:186). The entropy function is concave and separable with a unique solution for the probabilities q, w and ξ that are used post optimization to recover the parameter estimates β

and the variance-covariance matrix. The optimization problem does not present any difficulty and can be solved with any mathematical or statistical package for nonlinear optimization. Golan, Judge and Miller (1996:196-197) conducted a Monte Carlo experiment to show the extreme precision4 of the GME estimator of the SESM compared to traditional 2SLS and 2SLS-

Generalized Method of Moments estimator.

To give more power to the data, the following uninformative support points, based on a wide interval centered around zero, were chosen: Z10 = Z20 = Z30 = [-1000,0,1000]’ for the intercepts of the three equations; Zik = [-10,0,10]’ for the remaining parameters of the three equations; the dependent variable of (1) is the prevalence of undernourishment that is defined between zero and one (as a percentage of the entire population), therefore V1 = [-1,0,1] was

4 The authors compared the trace of the covariance matrix of the parameters and the Mean Square Error of the

parameters for several competing estimation techniques for the simultaneous equation statistical model.




chosen as the support for the noise term of equation (1); It should be noted that the interval of V1 is approximately 10 times the highest value of the dependent variable, therefore along the same line, support points for the noise terms of the remaining equations (2) and (3) have been chosen to be 10 times the highest values of DES and ln(y), respectively; consequently, V2 = [-12,0,12]

and V3 = [-47,0,47], supports for ε2 and ε3, respectively.

Results

Based on the satisfaction of some regularity conditions, Mittelhammer et al. (2013:1759-1765) proofed the asymptotic properties and derived an expression for the variance-covariance matrix of the GME estimates. However, given the limited sample available, a non-parametric bootstrap simulation, based on 999 replicates as suggested by Efron and Tibshirani (1994:45-49), was used to derive the standard errors and z-scores of the parameter estimates of the GME-SESM as reported in table 2.

Table 2. Results: GME-SESM estimates.

Estimates Undernourishment (U)

Dietary Energy Supply (DES)

Food Production Index (ln(y))

Constant -0.0738 -0.6910)

1.1594*** (151.4509)

4.5476*** (116.3151)

Trend (t) 0.0016* (1.6659)

-0.0040*** (-3.9445)

0.0075 (1.4231)

ln(y) 0.0137 (0.9301)

0.0012* (1.7944)

—

ln(GDP) 0.0071 (0.8397)

0.0013*** (3.9084)

—

ln(P) 0.0083* (1.6675)

-0.0028 (-1.4502)

—

ln(POP) 0.0009 (1.1613)

0.0016*** (33.9477)

—

Temperature anomaly (TMP)

— — 0.0001 (0.0180)

Rainfall anomaly (RAIN)

— — -0.0012** (-2.0501)

ln(LAND) — Arable

Land — — 0.0028***

(15.1296) ln(F) — Fungicides — — -0.0021

(-0.5734) ln(H) — Herbicides — — 0.0022*

(1.6236) ln(I) — Insecticides — — 0.0033

(1.1528) ln(K) — Agricultural

Credit — — 0.0027

(0.8786)

Pseudo-R2 0.690 0.691 0.709

Notes: ***99%,**95% and *90% confidence; boostrapped z-scores in parentheses; pseudo-R2i = 1-{-Σkqiklnqik/(K+1)ln[M(K+1)]}=1 implies perfect in-sample prediction



The three estimated equations have fair values of the pseudo-R2, a measure of informational value carried by the data. For example, according to this measure in the fourth column of table 2, the available data provide almost 71% of the information to model the relationship between the production of food, production factors and exogenous climate variables that could occur in reality (equation (3)). From the estimated equation appears that land, precipitation anomaly, and herbicides were the only statistically significant determinants of food production in Guyana between 2001 and 2011. For example, 100mm increase in annual rainfall compared to the historical average precipitation of the past century could decrease the production of food by 12.61% with 95% confidence. Of smaller magnitude is the return on food production from the use of arable land and herbicides. A 10% increase in those inputs could have increased the production

of food by 0.028% (alpha-level 0.01) and 0.022% (alpha-level 0.1), respectively.

Once we have found a significant relationship between an exogenous climate factor (rainfall anomaly) and food production we turn the discussion to the possible impact of the national production of food on the indicators of food security. The second column of table 2 refers to equation (1), i.e., the relationship between prevalence of undernourishment and production of food and other demographic and economic factors. Based on the available data, most of the parameter estimates of equation (1) lacks statistical power except for the trend variable and the price of food. According to the estimation results, between 2001 and 2011, the Republic of Guyana experienced a potential increase in the prevalence of undernourishment. This trend was approximately 0.16 percentage points per year (90% confidence) due to possible unobserved structural changes of the Guyanese Society; as expected, change in the price of food could have an impact on a larger magnitude on the prevalence of undernourishment. In fact, to a 10% increase in the price of food corresponds a potential increase of 0.795 percentage points in the

prevalence of malnutrition.

All the parameter estimates of equation (2) are statistically significant with 90% and 99% confidence, except for the price of food that seems not statistically to affect the dietary energy supply (DES). As it is noticeable from the raw data in table 1, it appears that in Guyana there was a negative trend of the dietary energy supply that decreased potentially by 0.4 percentage points per year. As expected, there is a positive relationship between the annual production of food and the average dietary energy supply that is 0.001 percentage points increase per 1% increase in the food index (90% confidence). A similar positive relationship, statistically significant at 99% confidence, exists between per capita GDP and the average dietary energy supply. In fact, for 1% increase in per capita GDP corresponds a potential increase of approximately 0.0013 percentage points in DES. A similar relationship between income and adequate intake of energy has been found by Akerele et al. (2017) among rural households in Nigeria. A positive relationship also exists between population and dietary energy supply. According to the estimated parameter, DES could increase by 0.0016 percentage points for 1% potential increase in population (alpha level 0.01). This positive relationship could be explained by the fact that the supply of dietary energy may be keeping track with growing demand for dietary energy due to increasing population.

We turn now the discussion to the potential impact of climate change on food security in Guyana. From the estimation results appeared that a severe shift in the precipitation pattern is a potential determinant of food production in the country (equation 3). Since the food production seems to be a determinant of the average dietary energy supply (equation 2), then through the simultaneous equation statistical models we could predict the impact of the change in DES due to 100mm increase in rainfall. In fact, since the production of food could potentially decrease by 12.61% due to an increase of 100mm in precipitation, then the dietary energy supply could

5 This figure has been calculated in percentage points changes as ΔY = 100 x β x log[(100+%ΔX)/100].




decrease approximately by 0.0166 percentage points, ceteris paribus. This result is of particular importance because Guyana is not immune from the El Nino Southern Oscillation phases. La Nina years are usually associated with copious precipitations opposed to El Nino years that are often associated with droughts. Certainly, there might be other unobserved factors, which are linked to the fluctuation of the rainfall patterns, which could affect both the aggregate production of food and the DES in Guyana. However, given the limited information available, that is the main limitation of the current study, results of the analysis suggest that climate change, particularly change in rainfall pattern, could be a potential determinant of food insecurity in Guyana. Forecasting changes in the annual precipitation pattern could help public policy makers to design sustainable intervention plans that could smooth the potential fluctuations in the national food

energy supply to ensure the population access to adequate dietary requirements.

Conclusions

The third target of the first-millennium development goal was to halve, between 1990 and 2105, the proportion of people without access to food and an adequate dietary energy consumption. The Recent increase in the frequency of extreme weather events (droughts, floods, and hurricanes) is becoming a serious threat that could intensify the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition (World Food Programme, 2017). Consequently, during the past decade, in multiple academic disciplines, there has been a significant increase in the number of studies addressing the potential threat of climate change on food security and nutrition.

This study used annual data on food production, climate anomalies, economic and food security indicators to assess the potential impact of climate change on the prevalence of undernourishment and dietary adequacy in Guyana. The main limitation of the study is the limited data availability that has been mitigated with a precise and robust econometric technique: The Generalized Maximum Entropy estimation. This inferential procedure has been used to estimate a simultaneous equation statistical model that links the variables of interests according to an agricultural economic production paradigm. While population growth, per capita income, and food price are the primary determinants of food security and dietary adequacy, the study also reveals that a 100mm increase in annual rainfall anomaly (normal 1900-1999) could decrease the domestic production of food by 12.61% and the dietary adequacy by 0.016 percentage points. Future high-resolution studies should gather updated disaggregated data to explore the relationship between climate phases, precipitation patterns, agricultural production,

infrastructures and other community assets in Guyana.

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Satisfaction and Quality of Housing among Older Persons in Rural East Trinidad

Isabella Francis-Granderson1, Carlisle Pemberton2 and

Afiya De Sormeaux3

¹ Lecturer, Human Nutrition and Dietetics & Human Ecology; ² Professor, Agricultural

Economics 3 Graduate Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension

The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus

Abstract Currently the proportion of older persons in rural areas is rising. Many of those based in rural areas are older persons with a strong agricultural background and indeed many are aging farmers. This study determined for low-income older persons in rural Trinidad and Tobago their satisfaction with their housing, their housing quality status and the factors influencing their housing quality status. 300 old aged pensioners (65 and 103 years old) were personally interviewed. While the majority (67.7 %) of older persons was satisfied with their housing, 46 % had poor quality housing. Older persons considered themselves to be in poorer health than the general US population, but in about the same state of mental health. The main predictors of housing quality status were whether the respondent lived alone, the levels of education, income and the gender of the elderly respondent.

Keywords: Older Persons, Housing Quality and Satisfaction, Housing Quality Index, Trinidad

Introduction

Currently the proportion of older persons in rural areas is rising. Many of those based in rural areas are older persons with a strong agricultural background and indeed many are aging farmers. Most are facing various levels of food insecurity and worsening socioeconomic indices. The increasing longevity experienced throughout the world has generated interest in the housing status of older persons and their satisfaction with their housing. In the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago ranks number 62 of all the nations (187) profiled in the Human Development Index (HDI) and thus falls within the High Human Development category (UNDP, 2011). As the number and percentage of older persons in Trinidad and Tobago continue to increase, little is known about their satisfaction with their housing, and the social and economic factors that affect their housing status.

The Trinidad and Tobago Government’s vision for housing as outlined in the Housing Sub-committee Report is to provide adequate housing for all citizens by 2020, and item 1 in its Credo indicates that every citizen has a right to access adequate housing (Vision 2020 Housing Sub-Committee Report, 2003). However, there is no specific reference to older persons in this credo. Although governmental policies for housing target low income families, there is no housing policy for older persons, other than the allocation to them of apartments located on the ground floor of housing duplexes and apartment blocks. In addition, there is no evidence that the housing services for older persons have increased appropriately. This paper focuses on the issues of their




housing conditions and looks specifically at those factors affecting the level of housing quality and satisfaction. As a result, this study sought to discover important information for a rural low-income older population of Trinidad and Tobago and to suggest policy interventions to improve the housing of this vulnerable segment of the Society. The objective of the study was met through four sub-objectives:

To determine the satisfaction of the low-income rural older persons with their

housing;

To measure the socio-economic and personal characteristics of low income rural

older persons;

To assess the housing quality status by a housing quality score and to discover

the relationship between this housing quality score and the satisfaction of low-

income rural older persons with their housing; and

To discover the factors which determine the housing quality score of low income,

rural older persons.

Analytical Framework

Housing Quality Status

Housing quality status refers to the actual housing condition of an individual, as measured by the essential features of actual living conditions. The type of physical structure in which people are housed, the space available and the degree of overcrowding, facilities available for use and location are indicative of the quality of life, and the level of well-being of household members (CSO, 1990). Shelter is one of the basic necessities in life, but when households purchase or rent a house, they are also concerned with other factors or services associated with the house. These factors include security, privacy, their neighborhood, status, community facilities and services, access to jobs and control over their environment. If a household is deprived of these other factors, they may not be able to enjoy the comfort of a house.

Adequate housing is an important issue for all age groups. It is particularly important,

however, for the older persons, because their housing needs change: not only do children leave, family members migrate and spouses die, but also economic circumstances often change, largely because of declining employment opportunities, and poverty. As people age, their health changes significantly (high prevalence of chronic illnesses, risk of falls etc.), often dramatically, affecting the suitability of their existing housing arrangements and their future needs. At present, there are approximately 132,022 citizens in Trinidad and Tobago over the age of 60 (CSO, 2011). The increase in the population of older persons has given rise to the spiraling growth in homes for older persons. This has caused Government to take a closer look at these geriatric homes. According to the United Nations (1991) appropriate housing conditions are very important for older persons, since most of their activities are in the home. The Committee on an Aging Society (1988) defined “physically inadequate housing”, as units having any one of the types of deficiencies listed in APPENDIX-Table 1, developed by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). A subset of physically inadequate units are judged to be “seriously inadequate”, if they have any one of the following deficiencies: 1, 2, 9 and 10; or five of the six structural problems listed in deficiency 5; or all four of the “common areas” problems.

A Housing Quality Index (HQI) is a measurement tool used to assess and evaluate the

quality of housing. Ghana represents a case in the developing world where such an index was



devised. Here a collection of thirteen items were used for the HQI as follows: the materials of the outer walls and roofs; cooking and lighting fuel; water and sewage services; tenure; and distances to the nearest drinking water, food market, public transportation, primary and secondary schools and health services (Fiadzo, 2004). In the case of the Caribbean, Potter (1992) selected eight individual housing variables taken from the 1980/81 Population Census of the Commonwealth Caribbean, that were broadly diagnostic of housing conditions in Barbados, to construct a HQI. A description of the items included in this HQI is given in APPENDIX-Table 2.

Hypothesized Factors Influencing Housing Quality - Previous Studies

To meet a major objective of this study, several personal and socio-economic factors were hypothesized as possible determinants of the housing quality status of older persons households. This section discusses from the literature, studies which have suggested explanatory variables for housing quality. This study will then attempt to determine which of these factors are relevant to low-income rural older persons in Trinidad and Tobago.

- Age of Household Head

According to Fiadzo (2004), the housing quality status is significantly and positively affected by the age of the household head. This study found that households that were headed by older individuals tended to have higher scores than those households headed by younger individuals. In Trinidad, however findings from PAHO (1989) suggested an inverse relationship between housing quality and age. The two oldest age groups (75-79 and 80 and over) had consistently lower housing quality than the younger age groups.

- Gender

Fiadzo (2004) found that households headed by females had higher housing quality counterparts. In a review of housing stratification in the United States, Conley (2001) reported that, when the income measure was held constant, the proportion of years of female headship and housing conditions were not significantly related. According to PAHO (1989), in Trinidad, slightly more men under 80 years of age than older men owned their homes, and the percentages of women owning their homes were usually 10 % lower than those of their male cohorts in each age group. In addition, fewer men than women across all age groups reported renting the houses that they lived in (PAHO, 1989).

- Marital Status

In the case of Ghana (Fiadzo, 2004), marital status had a significantly negative relationship to the level of housing quality. Married households shifted the HQI scores lower than unmarried households. In addition, household heads who were married had lower HQI scores than single household heads.

- Education

Fiadzo (2004) reported that achievement in education influenced the HQI considerably; the HQI score was increased with each additional year of education. Conley (2001) reported that households that were headed by more educated individuals were more likely to own a home in the 5 year period 1968 to 1972.

- Employment

There was a significant positive relationship between employment and housing quality in the Barbados case (Potter, 1992). Full-time employment of household heads in




agriculture/forestry/fishing in Ghana significantly and negatively shifted the HQI score lower compared to those household heads employed in the formal sector (Fiadzo, 2004). Also, in Ghana, household heads employed in the private informal sector (including street and market vendors and artisans) experienced HQI scores marginally lower than those of household heads employed in the formal sector (Fiadzo, 2004).

- Income

According to the Fiadzo (2004), in Ghana, the HQI was positively and significantly related to income, with the most important indicator of housing quality in urban areas being the income quintile. In addition higher income reduced the odds of living in overcrowding housing. Clark, Deurloo and Dieleman (1984) reported that in Toronto, Canada, while both expensive and inexpensive rental units were occupied by high income households; a relationship exists between household income and tenure (individuals with lower incomes are more likely to rent than individuals with higher incomes). Chevan (1982) reported that growth in income contributed to housing improvements, in that higher incomes raised many families to the point at which they could afford to purchase a home. He further noted that, the availability of inexpensive mortgage credit also contributed to the growth of home ownership. Heller (1989) reported that low-income Americans are predominantly renters. Of the poor Americans, almost 6 million households pay more than 50 % of their income in rent. Similarly, the National Low Income Housing Coalition (2001) reported that persons who possessed their own houses were wealthier and occupied better housing facilities than renters. Low income also contributed to severe housing problems and 87 % of all renter households that are low income households experience severe housing problems. Most of these renters have incomes below 50 % of the area median income (AMI).

Hypothesized Factors Influencing Housing Quality-This Study

This section discusses new factors which are hypothesized to affect low income rural older persons in Trinidad and Tobago.

- Physical and Mental Health Status Older persons experience many physical and mental health problems, thus the physical and social welfare of older persons have become challenging issues. The expected outcome of good health reaches far beyond longevity, to the goal of an acceptable quality of life, without disabilities (Moseley, 2001). Older persons, who self-assess their health to be poor, will probably seek medical help more than those who believe they are in excellent health. Health problems such as arthritis, poor vision, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and heart disease were found to be among the most important concerns of older persons, 65 years and older in Trinidad (PAHO, 1989). These disabilities and concerns could affect the housing quality of older persons. According to the Mental Health Canada (MHC), (2011) both industrialized and developing countries have experienced an increase in the problem of mental illness among older persons, 65 years and over. The MHC estimates, that in the United States of America, between 15-25 % of older persons suffer from depression, dementias (Alzheimer) and pseudo dementias- common symptoms of mental illness. Globally, older persons top the WHO’s list of new cases of mental illness; 236 per 100,000 elderly people suffer from mental illness in comparison to 93 per 100,000 of



people aged 45-64. Even though depression in older people can be treated, many cases go undetected. Research has indicated that depression is a major cause of suicide among older persons in the United States of America (Markson, 2003). In general, therefore it could be expected that the better the physical and mental health of the elderly individual, the higher the individual’s HQI score.

An inverse relationship also probably exists between housing quality as a determinant of health status. As reported by Krieger and Higgins (2002), having poor housing facilities contributes to a wide range of health problems, such as respiratory infections, asthma, lead poisoning, injuries and mental health.

- Level of Aspiration As cited by Pemberton (1985), level of aspiration is a generalized measure of the strength of human motives with respect to goal achievement and the expectancy of success. In other words, it measures the motives the individual sets and the reactions to one’s performance and evaluations of that performance by others.

This measure has been used widely in the study of the impact of motivation on managerial and social processes. Individuals with a higher level of aspiration could be expected to be more motivated to improve their living conditions including the condition of their housing. Therefore, the relationship between the level of aspiration of the individual and housing quality status is expected to be positive.

Relationship Between Housing Satisfaction and Housing Quality

The level of housing satisfaction expressed by persons can be linked to their needs. Wilson and Aspinall (1995) note that as persons get older they become more critical of their home and often express decreasing levels of tolerance for imperfect housing conditions due to changes in physical and social needs. As such, housing satisfaction among older persons should be related to but not limited to the design and layout of amenities, house type, tenure (renting/home owning), and housing conditions, components of the housing quality status of older persons. The relationship between housing satisfaction and housing quality is explored in this study.

Conceptual Model and Study Hypotheses

Arising from the discussions in the previous section, Figure 1 illustrates the factors hypothesized to influence housing quality status of older persons and the relationship between housing quality status (measured by the HQI) and housing satisfaction.




This study hypothesizes that personal characteristics - age, gender, physical and mental well-being and the level of aspiration as well as socioeconomic factors – education, whether the individual is employed, income and living arrangement determine the HQI score of low income rural older persons in Trinidad. The figure also indicates a hypothesized relationship between housing satisfaction and the HQI score. Methodology

The Survey

The population examined in this study consisted of low-income older persons, (65 to 103 years of age) resident in the counties of St Andrew and St. David in eastern Trinidad and enrolled to receive assistance from the State, through the Ministry of the People and Social Development,

Figure 1: Hypothesized Factors Influencing Housing Quality Status

Age

Gender

Physical

Wellbeing

Mental

Wellbeing

Living

Arrangement

Income

Employment

Education

SO

CIO

-EC

ON

OM

IC F

AC

TO

RS

PE

RS

ON

AL

CH

AR

AC

TE

RIS

TIC

S

Level of

Aspiration

HOUSING

QUALITY

STATUS

Housing

Satisfaction



formerly Ministry of Social Development, Social Welfare Division, Sangre Grande. The sample size was determined on the basis of the population size, the geographical distribution of the population, and the resources available to the study. A three-stage sampling design was used to select 300 community dwelling old age pension recipients, 65 years and older, who were interviewed. The residential distribution of the respondents was as follows: 100 were resident in the main District of Valencia, 100 were resident in the main district of Manzanilla, and 100 were resident in the main district of Toco/Matelot.

- The Questionnaire

The questionnaire used in the survey was developed and pre-tested with 15 old age pensioners to determine its appropriateness and suitability for the survey population. The questionnaire was designed to provide information on the personal and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents; their housing satisfaction and quality status; their physical and mental well-being; and their levels of aspiration.

Conduct of the Survey

Face to face interviews were conducted with older persons at the respondents’ home. The respondents were assured of the confidentiality of the information collected in the survey. There were 300 respondents in the survey and the non-response percentage was 21 %. The survey was conducted during the months of September to November, 2004. The investigator and a trained research assistant/interviewer administered the questionnaires.

Procedures for the Derivation of Variables in the Study

- Housing Quality Index (HQI) Score

Data for the determination of the HQI score of respondents were obtained through a set of 21 questions (which included 32 items or variables). The questions enquired about the respondents’ housing tenure, type of dwelling and the physical characteristics of their houses, which included the physical structure, types of materials used, the number of rooms, and the utilities and basic amenities present. Twelve questions were selected from the Trinidad and Tobago, Central Statistical Office (CSO), 1990 Population and Housing Census. These were designed to obtain information on the physical condition of the respondents’ dwelling units, namely tenure, type of dwelling, number of rooms, average size of rooms, housing material used for the roof, flooring, outer walls; toilet facilities, water supply and garbage disposal.

Actual observations of the external and internal aspects of the respondents’ dwelling units during the interviews were utilized to verify the responses about the conditions of these dwelling units. Other questions were related to the location of the house, travel time to the nearest Health Center or Hospital and the level of crime in the area in which the house was located. Four questions also obtained data on the respondents’ satisfaction or dissatisfaction with their current

housing. Each question was closed with categories that were then scaled to determine a HQI.

From the 21 questions and 32 items on housing quality, a HQI was constructed. The initial step involved the scaling of the categories for each of the items so that the highest score reflected the highest quality with respect to housing for that item. The next step involve

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