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Editor's Welcome
As I write this I also have one eye on the TV watching what is now called the
Cheltenham November meeting.
Top class National Hunt racing is back and we have 5 months of real racing to enjoy.
To help with the battle with the bookies Nick has carried on his local trainer research
with a look at trainers based in the South West of England and South Wales.
His research has uncovered a trainer with a 37% strike rate and a 100% ROI with his
runners at Exeter and Nick drills down to give us a decent system to follow this term.
Wendy has profiled Willie Mullins and managed to find an angle to profit from the
runners of this, surely, most over-bet of trainers.
Staying with Wendy here Monthly Methods column made a profit again in October and
is already in profit for November. Wendy shares her angles for December.
Ben Aitken shows us where the profit is at the big Boxing Day meeting at Kempton and
surprisingly this not a place for the big priced winner.
We also have an interview with Robin Bliss a profile of Unity Racing an update on all
our products reviews and our top ten tipsters.
If you've picked up this issue from a friend and would like to subscribe for free Click
Here
I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.
All the best
Darren Power
Cover image by Paul (Horse racing) [CC BY 2.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Local Jumps Trainers – Wales and the
South West of England
I am going to keep to last month’s theme on local trainers and this time we are looking
at those yards based in Wales and the South West of England. As before, we will be
looking at the performance of these yards when they send runners to their local tracks.
Before we get to that, I am going to leave out a couple of tracks.
The first one is Bangor-On-Dee, my local course. The distance between South Wales
and the South West of England and this track is about 150 miles. But the problem is
getting there. Trust me when I tell you that this is not a quick route so I would not
consider this course to be local to Welsh trainers, all of whom are based in South Wales
anyhow.
The other track is Cheltenham. The racing at Cheltenham is not run-of-the-mill stuff
with the Open Meeting, Showcase Meeting, New Year’s Day fixture and the
Cheltenham Festival itself all being that bit special. Horses get sent to Cheltenham
because it is Cheltenham, not because it is just local to the yard.
So, we will be concentrating on Ffos Las, Chepstow, Exeter, Taunton, Wincanton and
Newton Abbott.
These tracks are all considered local to those trainers in South Wales and the South
West of England. We will be looking at the years 2010 to 2017 and paying particular
attention to those trainers with a good recent record in the last couple of seasons.
Trainers such Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Alan King, Nigel Twiston-
Davies and Phillip Hobbs all train in this location so expect to see some big names in
this article. However, we will also be keeping an eye out for any of the smaller yards
that may be flying under the radar.
Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls is one trainer where it is not easy to make a profit. That is simply because
he is a multiple winning Champion Trainer and runs so many good horses that you
never get much juice out of the prices on offer. However, all is not lost.
If it is winners you are after then Wincanton is the track to turn to.
His overall record there is mightily impressive. But as you can see from the results
below for his runners since 2010 at the track, strike rate is high and profits are small.
As always, we can improve on these by digging deeper into the stats of those 90
winners.
The first thing to note is that his runners over 3 miles and further are 2-32. That equates
to a 6% strike rate compare to his overall track strike rate of 34%. Removing these
runners alone ups the strike rate to 38% and now we see an ROI of 20% at Betfair SP. I
work to a 20% ROI rule. Anything around 20% is excellent and is well worthy of
consideration in your betting armoury.
The other noteworthy statistic is that his runners do best of all in small to medium sized
fields. Those running in fields of 13 or more have a relatively poor record of 3-35 and
again we simply remove them.
Now we have some really strong results for Paul Nicholls’ runners at Wincanton.
Backing all those in fields of 2 to 12 runners, racing over trips less than 3 miles would
have resulted in 85 winners from 197 qualifiers and £73.65 profit at Betfair SP.
Who said you could not profit from Paul Nicholl’s runners? Ah yes, it was me. I take
that back. I for one have added these to my saved systems in HRB and will get an e-
mail with any qualifiers the night before the meeting.
However, there is one other filter I need to add at this time before looking at the type of
race where the profits lie, and that is race class. Surprisingly, the Paul Nicholls class 1
and 2 runners underperform. They have a combined record of 8-33, which in itself is not
too shoddy at a 24% strike rate, but these runners do not realise any profit.
Concentrating on Class 3 to Class 6 races produces much more impressive numbers.
We now have a basic system that has fired in 77 winners from just 164 runners (46%
strike rate) and generated £80.44 level stakes profit at Betfair SP at an ROI of just under
50%.
The good news is that it gets better if you are willing to give the chasers a swerve. The
runners over the larger obstacles do OK. In fact, they are 15-40 (37% strike rate) but
realise just a tiny profit at Betfair SP. Sticking to the hurdlers and bumper runners gives
the following results:
So, the above results are for hurdlers and bumper runners in Class 3, 4, 5 and 6 races in
fields of 2 to 12 runners and racing over distances of less than 3 miles.
You would get around 20 to 30 runners in a calendar year and can expect a high strike
rate and some decent profits to boot.
If you really want to drill down further then the table below shows you where most of
the profit has come from:
Combining the NH flat runners with the novice hurdlers and handicap hurdlers
(important note: this does not include the novice handicap races which are a different
thing altogether and in which his runners are actually 0-9) gives the following results:
50% strike rate, £80 profit at Betfair SP and an ROI of 80%. One for the tracker.
The other Paul Nicholls angle comes at Taunton, which is definitely his local track.
Since 2010 he has sent out 57 winners at the Somerset venue at a strike rate of 30%.
Those runners more or less break even at industry SP but have made a small profit at
Betfair SP. The 57 winners gives us something to work with to try and unlock a bit
more profit and see if there is anything that warrants a place in the tracker or as a saved
system within HRB.
The logical starting point is to look at the performance of his runners in hurdles, chase
and bumper races.
As you can see, it is the hurdlers who are worth exploring further.
They have a higher strike rate than the other two sets of runners and also produce a
profit compared to the small losses incurred by the chase and bumper runners. They also
give us the most action with 120 runners lining up over the smaller obstacles at Taunton
since 2010.
Having crunched the numbers I can tell you that there is no real angle for the hurdlers.
Winners have come in handicap and non-handicap races, in all race classes and over all
distances.
The one message here is that the trainer has a fantastic strike rate with his hurdlers at
Taunton but they do not offer up any real value. No fewer than 47 went off as outright
or joint favourite and 24 won, yet the profits are tiny. In comparison, 73 did not go off
favourite and 16 won (22% strike rate) but these runners returned a profit of £30.46 at
Betfair SP.
So, in terms of pure value it is the Paul Nicholls hurdlers who do not go off as
favourite that are the ones that will make you money at Taunton.
Harry Fry
Out of all the trainers who send runners to the tracks we are looking at, Harry Fry
comes top in terms of bottom line profit as shown in the table below:
Not bad for a trainer that has not held a licence for all that long.
The first thing we can do as we sift through the overall results is to ditch those sent to
Wales. At Ffos Las his runners are 2-10 and at Chepstow they are 0-16.
As you can see, Exeter is the standout track and we will come back to that one later.
For now, I want to see if we can find any hidden angles if we take Taunton, Exeter,
Newton Abbott and Wincanton together.
One of the more obvious differences lies between those runners in handicap and non-
handicap races.
The handicappers are 24-98 which is a highly respectable 24% strike rate. But as you
can see, these runners do not offer up much in the way of value with only small gains
realised at industry and Betfair SP. They most likely go off as favourites and at pretty
skinny odds.
The non-handicap runners are far more interesting from a betting perspective as not
only do they have a higher strike rate, they also produce nearly all of the profit.
Looking a bit more closely at the non-handicap races, I have broken them down into
NH race type in the table below:
Sticking to the non-handicap hurdles and bumper runners at Exeter, Newton Abbott,
Wincanton and Taunton produces a decent set of results:
All these runners ran in Class 3, 4, 5 and 6 races with no real difference in overall
performance dependent on the grade of race.
Hurdlers and bumper runners both produce nice profits and race distance is not really a
factor with winners from 2 miles to 3 miles and beyond.
These runners have produced a profit at these combined tracks every year since Harry
Fry has held a licence (2012) except for 2015 where they made a small loss. OK, so
now we have a potential Harry Fry angle, it is worth loading it back into HRB and
seeing if it is consistent across all the tracks we identified for this study. This makes for
interesting reading and shows the merits of really exploring potential angles before
committing to them.
Take a look at the results below:
As you can see, Exeter is again the standout track.
Newton Abbott and Taunton just about break even at Betfair SP. The interesting results
are from Wincanton. The strike rate here is just 20% compared to a combined strike rate
of 30% across all four tracks. However, the 11 winners produce a decent profit.
I would not write off Newton Abbott and Taunton. After all, the yard does well there.
For me, I would note the high strike rate at these tracks and then assess the relative
value in the available odds of any runner that turns up there.
Exeter and Wincanton on the other hand would be my idea of system qualifiers and I
would most likely back the runners here without too much thought.
Now back to Exeter where we observed that his runners are 25-67. Impressive stuff.
We also see an emergent pattern that we observed with his runners when combining the
South West tracks and that pattern is that it is the non-handicap runners who again
produce the profits.
These runners are 21-47 since 2012 and show a fantastic ROI in excess of 100% over
on the betting exchanges. A strike rate of 45% is exceptional and we see plenty of profit
in the bottom line.
For me, I would back the Fry runners in non-handicap races at Exeter without too
much hesitation.
For our On Course Profits Gold members this month Nick takes a look at which trainer
and jockey combinations do best when riding for trainers at that yard’s local tracks.
You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here...
http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/
If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his
Festival Tips service which made 481 points profit in 2016 - Click Here.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Legends of The Turf - Willie Mullins
The Irish trainer and former jockey Willie Mullins was born in the mid-fifties and after
working as an assistant trainer to both Jim Bolger and his father Paddy Mullins he took
up his own training licence in 1988.
His father trained horses for more than 50 years and enjoyed his last winner at the grand
age of 84 with Vintage Tipple winning the Irish Oaks in 2003. We can assume that a
few “vintage tipples” were drunk in celebration that day.
Racing is in the family blood with both of Willie’s brother, Tom and Tony also training
but with Willie having been six times amateur champion jockey over in Ireland and
inheriting, if only part, of the vast knowledge held by his father we can see how his
training career has been such a success.
Since taking out his licence some of his notable achievements include:
Hedghunter – 2005 Grand National winner
Hurricane Fly – 2011 and 2013 Champion Hurdle winner
Vautour – 2016 Ryanair Chase winner.
Quevega – Six times winner of the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
In 2015 he became the first trainer to have the top three horses in the Champion Hurdle
at the Cheltenham Festival and during the Festival he ended the meeting with 8 winners,
a record which is still standing.
In general it is accepted that Willie Mullins is considered to be the best National Hunt
trainer in Ireland, and over in the UK, particularly at the Cheltenham Festival, he has a
clear edge over the respected Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.
The bare statistics mirror this as can be seen below.
The statistics cover the period 2012-2017 (Mid-Nov).
The above figures prove Mullins success over his rivals conclusively.
He has trained the greatest number of winners, has the best strike-rate and in addition he
has also won considerably more in prize money than his three main rivals.
Operating successfully in both the UK and Ireland Mullins is equally adept at training
horses for a Flat campaign.
Since January 2014 he has saddled 47 Flat winners from 236 runners for a 20% strike-
rate and a level stake profit of +19.21pts at SP and an even better +66.98pts using the
Betfair SP, the profit coming from his handicap runners which included 26 winners
combined with a healthy 1.11 A/E*.
For those of you that may not be familiar with A/E here is a quick explanation of what it
is and why it can be useful when looking for profitable pointers:-
Actual versus Expected
A figure based on actual versus expected return. This is calculated as the total number
of wins versus the expected number of wins.
The expected number is based on the official starting price, for example a horse at 1/10
has an expectancy of 0.91, an Evens money shot has an expectancy of 0.50, 2/1 is an
expectancy of 0.33 and 10/1 is an expectancy of 0.09.
When our analysis shows an A/E figure of greater than 1.00 it is an indication that the
returns are better than would be expected by the betting market.
In September of last year, 2016, Mullins suffered what may have been considered a
considerable blow to the yard when Mr Ryanair, Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud,
removed all 60 of its horses from his County Carlow yard following a dispute over
training fees.
At this point Mullins was left with a fight for the Irish title during that season with
Gordon Elliott, the runner-up in the 2015-2016 season, who took delivery of a
significant number of the horses removed from the Mullins yard.
The history books however will show that against all the odds Mullins dramatically
pipped Gordon Elliott to retain his Trainers’ Championship on the final day of the
season, and this has to go down as one of the greatest achievements by the Closutton-
based trainer given the circumstances under which it was achieved.
With the main part of the 2017/18 jumps campaign starting to hot up the Mullins yard
(as at 14th Nov) had recorded 93 winners from 284 runners and amassed over 1.4m
Euros in win and place prize money. Gordon Elliott has the same number of winners but
from close to double the number of runners and is slightly ahead in prize money by
stakes.
Going forward, the absence of the Michael O'Leary effect may prove to be a potentially
huge positive, and there are two owners at least who will probably be overjoyed about
the news. Susannah and Rich Ricci had 41 horses running from the Mullins yard last
season which equates to 23% of the stable, whilst Andrea and Graham Wylie had 14, so
between them they totalled 55 horses, 30% of the stables runners. Despite their apparent
affability they would most likely have been absolutely fed up with working around the
O'Leary interference and disruption and the consequent dilution of big race winners.
Looking back at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival there were many in the run up to the
meeting that considered Mullins’s previous level of achievements to be unreachable and
during the first two days of the Festival the yard sent out 25 runners without a winner,
however the Closutton maestro sent out a four-timer on the Thursday before two further
winners on the Friday, so 6winners from 20 runners on days 3 & 4.
A lasting memory from the meeting was the dignity and professional calm which was
exuded by Mullins, despite enduring a miserable start. Clearly his knowledge, wisdom
and experience helped him to cope with the situation.
So is there a way we can profit from following this great trainer?
Well as we have already seen his handicap runners on the Flat have been a good source
of profits so are there any additional areas that we need to keep a close eye on?
Just before we start delving in to the figures let us take a look at the top line figures
from the last 5 year period (2013 to mid-Nov 2017).
Remarkably we would have made a profit at the Betfair SP during the last three years
just by backing every runner blindly to level stakes!
If we look more closely at the above figures we find that certain types of races have
performed well in terms of potential areas of profit particularly if we keep with the
theme of the Betfair SP. It is well documented that many of us are troubled by the
increasing prevalence of bookmaker restrictions so it does seem a sensible move to base
our findings on a readily available manner of placing our bets, the exchanges.
A Return on Investment of +32% is not to be sniffed at which is the tally that backing
the Mullins Novice Hurdlers would have achieved over the last five year period.
On closer inspection 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 ended with small losses (-3.57pts & -
3.66pts respectively), but all three of the most recent periods have been profitable.
If we consider the racecourses where the yard is seen to have regular runners,
Cheltenham did not fare as well as possibly we have expected with 8winners from 54
runners (14.81%) and a loss of 11.44pts at BFSP.
In contrast both Galway and Leopardstown have been very fruitful as have a number of
the smaller Irish venues.
The following Table highlights the most productive racecourses at which to follow the
Willie Mullins Novice Hurdlers based on the research data:-
The results have been pretty consistent over the 5 year period under review with each of
them recording a level stakes profit to Betfair SP, so we can be hopeful that this trend
will continue going forward.
Suggested Method
Follow Willie Mullins runners in Novice Hurdles entered at the following courses:
Clonmel
Cork
Down Royal
Galway
Kilbeggan
Leopardstown
Limerick
Naas
Punchestown
During the last 3 years there have been approximately 50 such qualifiers and roughly 1
in 3 have gone on to win their respective races.
If you prefer to have a greater number of bets you could do worse than add in the yards
runners in Handicaps on the Flat.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
A Q and A with Robin Bliss of Value
Racing Tips
1. Hi Robin and many thanks for agreeing to join us this month, would you start
by telling our readers a little about yourself and your background?
My name is Robin Bliss I'm 52 I live in Scotland with my wife and two children. I am
originally from Surrey where I was brought up. I work as a Sports Analyst/Tipster for
Betting Gods.
2. What attracted you to the world of horse racing and what do you enjoy most
about the sport?
I have been studying and betting on the horses for over 25 years.
I first got the bug back when I was around 12 years of age listening to my Dad picking
up the phone on a Saturday to have his fiver on the live racing on TV. Then in early
1990s I had left home after being made redundant from my job as an Assistant Land/
Building Surveyor and I moved to Morecambe in Lancashire where I was working in a
Plastic Mouldings factory and I was struck down with ME which meant giving up work.
I needed to keep my mind occupied so I started logging Horse Racing results and
marking down the stats about the individual Horses.Then I would put bets on my
selections and found I was winning money.
3. We can see from the Betting Gods website that you are the longest standing
tipster on the network. What first led you into the world of racing tipsters and how
have you managed to remain so committed?
I enjoy the challenge of studying horse racing and the rewards for myself and others it
can bring.
You could say I work in one of those rare jobs where I love my job.
4. What do you feel you can offer racing enthusiasts and punters that other tipsters
can’t?
The main thing I offer is value priced horses, there are no odds on selections. Offering
the overnight prices enables punters to get the best guaranteed prices, but most of all a
record over four years of consistent profit. I look at my service as an investment
opportunity.
5. What traits do you think a good racing tipster should possess and what do you
think the average punter is looking for from a tipping service?
The main trait of a good racing tipster should is that they have profitable, long term,
consistent results; I would assume most punters use a tipping service because either they
don’t have the time or the experience to do it themselves.
6. Do you have a “typical” working day? How would you describe your day to day
work?
My working day starts around midday where I will first look at the proposed weather
for the following days racing and then over the next four hours I will study races,
placing a few bets, whilst having the racing on the TV in the background. Between 4pm
and 6pm I will send out my selections for the next days racing.
In more detail, the races I select are mainly Handicaps and Pattern Races.
I choose my races based on whether I can narrow the race down to maybe only 2 to 3
possible winners, any more than that I leave alone.
Then I will analyse in depth try to work out how the race will be run. I never select an
odds on horse, I will always look for value.
I try to avoid Maidens and Novice Hurdles/Chases the reason being there are too many
unknowns, also 5f, 6f races are avoided as in a sprint slow away runners often get in to
a poor position and the race is over with no time to recover.
I use The Racing Post, At The Races and BHB site and I study videos of previous races
looking at the Stewards reports to see if I can find out why certain horses ran poorly. I
will then look at trainer / jockey stats and course form to see which horses certain
horses have raced against and the merit of those races.
7. What style of approach do you take to your betting on a personal level? What do
you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.? New and old punters alike
often struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them one piece
of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?
I have learned over time with my betting and Value Racing Tips that a level staking
plan works best, I don’t chase losses and always stick to the same level stake knowing
with my proven record it will right itself in the end.
With me picking three horses daily using 1pt level stakes it means if we get one winner,
nine times out of 10, it means we see a profit on the day.
All tipsters have bad runs so always stick to the same staking plan but you can change
the amount you bet accordingly.
If asked one piece of advice to give to punters it’s only bet what you can afford to lose.
8. What do you consider to be a highlight of your racing experience to date? Do
you have any personal racing / betting experiences which on reflection brings a
smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our
readers?
The highlight of my racing experience to date since joining Betting Gods was in May
when I went to Nottingham racecourse with other Betting Gods tipsters and Members.
The whole day was sponsored by Darren of Betting Gods, and we were treated like
royalty in our own private box, drink, lunch and we all got a chance to give out the
prizes to the connections of the winning horses, it was a fabulous day.
My personal betting success was backing Red Marauder to win the Grand National in
2001 at 33\1, the conditions were horrendous and only four horses finished the race that
day.
9. What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests do you have outside of the
world of horse racing?
To relax and unwind I enjoy watching quiz programmes, playing football, walking, and
spending time with the family.
Join Value Racing Tips Today!
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Join Value Racing Tips Today!
The Kempton stats you need to know for
Christmas…
The kids may have Christmas Day but us punters have Boxing Day…and the 27th…and
the 28th…in fact the racing from the 26th until almost the 31st is chocked full of quality
racing for us National Hunt fanatics, I guess it’s our reward for smiling and nodding
throughout Christmas Eve and Christmas Day when, let’s face it, our minds are fully
transfixed on the racing that’s waiting for us over the Christmas Day hump!
The highlight of the festive racing is undoubtedly Kempton’s King George meeting,
with the King George VI Chase the focal point of the two days.
It’s a meeting I love attacking from a trends / stats viewpoint and here are some of my
observations for the two day festival, using the past five years as my basis (2012 –
2016)...
Nicky Henderson
The trainer you want to have on your side…
Hendo is easily the most successful trainer at Kempton’s Christmas meeting and
although you can’t make a profit following him blind his overall strike-rates do make
for pleasant viewing…
14/50 | 28% S/R | -£7.68 LSP – Win & Place 20/50 | 40% S/R
1% above expectation
14 winners and a 28% strike-rate is pretty damn good. The profits are not there,
admittedly, but that’s no real surprise. He is, however, some way clear of the rest of the
pack with regards to winners and a bit of digging into the wider stats do help find us
profits...
Horses with 10 or less career starts to their name...
12/30 | 40% S/R | +£7.71 LSP – Win & Place 16/30 | 53% S/R
...an angle that can be tightened further by adding in an SP filter...
Horses with 10 or less career starts to their name | SP of 13/2 or less...
12/23 | 52% S/R | +£14.17 LSP – Win & Place 14/23 | 61% S/R
Paul Nicholls’ runners are massively over-bet…
That could well be a statement that’s applied to most meeting at any time of the year
when it comes to Nicholls and although the former champion trainer fires in plenty of
winners at the two day meeting (second behind Henderson with number of winners) you
would have blown a massive hole in your Christmas money had you followed him blind
over the past five years…
7/53 | 13% S/R | -£32.83 LSP – Win & Place 17/53 | 32% S/R
31% below expectation
Handicaps blow the biggest hole in the profits as he is a drastically poor 0/17 in that
sphere so it makes sense to look for a profitable angle within his Non-Handicap
runners only.
And the only way to do that, unfortunately, is to look at his non-handicap runners that
start at an SP of less than 4/1…
7/14 | 50% S/R | +£6.17 LSP – Win & Place 8/14 | 57% S/R
38% above expectation
A bit tight on the profits but if you are going to profit from Nicholls here you are going
to need to specialize.
Noel Fehily is fully focussed for the two days…
Maybe it’s because he’s got a lot of presents to pay for from the previous day or maybe
it’s because he’s got a festive name and he feels it’s his duty to be at the top of his
game...whatever the reason may be Fehily is a jockey that it’s worth having on your
side over the two days...
12/42 | 29% S/R | +£6.89 LSP – Win & Place 17/42 | 40% S/R
40% above expectation
Fehily is the winning-most jockey in recent seasons at the festival and he’s bang up for
getting his mounts into the winner’s enclosure over the two days.
The profits and strike-rates soar when you add in the following filters...
Top 3 finish last time out | SP of 8-1 or less
10/21 | 43% S/R | +£17.64 LSP – Win & Place 14/23 | 61% S/R
50% above expectation
General stats...
Last time out winners have a solid record at the meeting...
33/143 | 23% S/R | +£8.06 LSP – Win & Place 64/143 | 45% S/R
The profits are skinny but it’s a good starting point for further analysis and it’s certainly
worth giving a positive to any horse that comes into the meeting off the back of a
victory.
Runners returning off a 60 day or longer break struggle...
2/68 | 3% S/R | -£53.00 LSP – Win & Place 12/68 | 18% S/R
Race fitness looks key at this high-octane meeting and you don’t want to be coming in
to it without a recent racecourse appearance on your CV.
Stepping up more than two class levels is a tricky thing to do at Kempton over the
Christmas period...
3/85 | 3.5% S/R | -£62.25 LSP – Win & Place 14/85 | 16% S/R
Leaps in class at this the King George meeting rarely pay dividends and it’s not really a
place to be testing your class limitations. A natural upward curve (for example Class 3
>> Class 2 or G2 >> G1) is more preferable than taking a giant leap into the unknown
(for example Class 3 >> Grade 3 or Listed level >> G1).
Those horses that are becoming a shade long in tooth struggle to fend off their
younger and fresher rivals...
By long in tooth I’m talking about those horses that come into the meeting with 22 or
more career starts to their name...
3/96 | 3% S/R | -£80.77 LSP – Win & Place 19/96 | 20% S/R
The only horses to defy this stat in the past five seasons were Cue Card (2015), Cannon
Fodder (2015) & Special Tiara (2016).
Kempton at Christmas is a hard place to land a juicy priced pay-out...
We all love landing those huge priced winners, even more so at Christmas time so we
can start to claw back some of the money we’ve just wasted spent on the family.
Kempton, however, is probably not the place you’ll find those monster winners.
Take a look at the stats for those horses starting at an SP of 14-1 or bigger...
2/196 | 1% S/R | -£145.00 LSP – Win & Place 22/196 | 11% S/R
Ouch! That’s a hell of a lot of losers.
You would expect to back plenty of losers at those prices but you would also expect
more than TWO to roll in (market expectation backs that up as well – they are running
74% below expectation).
As tempting as those outsiders are it’s just not been a rewarding place to throw your
Christmas money at...
Finally I want to look at the Non-Handicap races in isolation (there have been 37 Non-
Handicap races at the last five Kempton King George Festivals)...
The jump from a Handicap to a Non-Handicap is a tricky one...
Ideally those that run in the Kempton Christmas Non-Handicaps had their warm up also
in a Non-Handicap contest. Take a look at the figures for those that ran in a Handicap
last time out...
3/59 | 5% S/R | -£38.75 LSP – Win & Place 13/59 | 22% S/R
This probably ties in with the class jump stat I mentioned earlier in the article and the
facts are you really don’t want to be backing those that are moving from Handicap
company to Non-Handicap company at this meeting, unless you have some other really
strong pointers in your favour.
Those that finished outside the top six last time out (including non-finishers) really
struggle to land a blow...
Coming in off a ‘poor’ run (outside the top 6) before tackling one of the Non-Handicap
races at the two day meeting is, basically, a terrible way to warm up for your desired
target...
0/55 | 0% S/R | -£55.00 LSP – Win & Place 9/55 | 16% S/R
Zero winners and only nine even squeezing into a place tells you all you need to know
about this stat!
Kempton at Christmas is something we all look forward to and with the above stats on
our side we can hopefully pay for some of those festive expenses!
Ben Aitken (NTF)
Join me at the NTF Website - www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk
Follow me on Twitter - @Narrowthefield
Tipster Profile
Matt of Unity Racing Investments was introduced to the world of horse racing and
betting by his Grandfather.
A man who was a huge follower of the form book in to his 90’s Matt’s Grandfather had
a shrewd racing brain even in his later years. Part of the daily routine of keeping both
mind and body active was a walk to the newspaper shop to pick up his copy of The
Racing Post. A morning spent making his selections which would more often than not
include a multiple would lead to a stroll to the bookies before lunch to place his bets
leaving the afternoon free to watch the racing.
The racing bug soon followed in the family as Matt’s Dad also got the racing bug so it
was almost inevitable that Matt would find himself interested in the Sport of Kings,
particularly with his Dad having previously owned shares in around 20 horses when his
racing interest was at its highest.
Matt puts his success down to doing “things differently”. He highlights the fact that
there is little or no money to be made from following the flock and so he and his
associates have devised their own unique strategy which works on simple rules but yet
offers long term and consistent gains.
Like many of us though Matt openly admits that he has made “tons of mistakes” and
most of those have been with “money management”.
He read plenty about the subject of managing the betting bank when it came down to
the nitty gritty he just didn’t grasp the concept.
Another mistake he will admit to is backing horses that he thought would win at any
price. It was only after he had studied the actual science of betting, because that is
exactly what it is, a mathematical science that he realised that the approach he was
taking at the time would never give him an edge over the market.
The thing of paramount interest now in the selections chosen is that they represent
perceived value, it really doesn’t matter what the race conditions are or the type of the
race, these things matter little to Unity Racing. Their selection process has been learned
and anyone can learn rules but the one thing which they have also learned along the way
is that whatever your selection criteria you MUST stick to the rules you have laid out
and that my friend takes a very special kind of person.
If you are a serious gambler you need to be able to switch off your emotions and just go
through the motions, the same as you would do with any other job. You have to operate
on auto pilot; don’t get distracted by the rollercoaster ride. If you can switch the
emotions off then you are half way to success.
Do you have the patience and determination to see a method through the good times and
through the bad to come out overall with profit in the bank?
For Matt and the team the tipping service is his life and not just a job, he wakes early,
he visits the gallops, he talks to owners and trainers, he visits sales and stud yards and
he makes it his life. He spends more hours in the racing circuit on a day to day basis
than he would doing a normal 9-5 job but it’s his life and he loves it.
Backing his own tips is financially more rewarding than tipping but there have been
some great days where people who have joined in the service have won lifetime
changing amounts of money and their thanks always gives the team an uplifting feeling.
With on average 3 bets a day, occasionally more if the racing is of a quality to justify an
additional play, the guys like to spread their success.
For Matt the important thing about following any tipster is that you must ensure that the
tips you are being given fit in with your lifestyle. If you are short on time and only look
to bet occasionally then pick a service which offers you that option.
The Unity Racing Investments service are looking for those of you which have a long
term goal in mind and are looking to grow a large account over say the next 5-10 years.
It really is that long a game plan.
A steady growth rate will beat any of the interest rates offered on the market these days.
So, do they have any desire to step in to other sports? Uh no definitely not! Matt has
never placed a bet on any other sport. Why? Because he doesn’t gamble or invest in
anything he knows very little or nothing about? That would be just foolish!
Matt and the team know their game and inside and out so by joining them you they feel
confident that they can keep delivering good results which will yield proven growth of
you bank account over time. They may even offer up a tidy fast return as their Epsom
Derby tips showed. Five winners from six selections really made their name. The prices
of 4 of the winning rides were big prices including a 16/1 and a 33/1.
And yes one of their customers had seen it fit to put the selections in a multiple walking
away at the end of the day with £40,000 based on their advice.
To find out more about Unity Racing Investments why not take a look by signing up to
day.
Click here for a FREE 28 day trial of the service.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Join today to get your FREE 28 day trial.
December Dilemmas
How did October close for us in the end?
Well Mr Farrell gave us 4 selections on the Turf Flat during October and sadly none of
them could muster a win, or to that end a place position! Oh well… (-8.00 pts to ISP).
Roger Fell’s runners didn’t perform all that much better. 18 runners during October
with just the 1 winner and 3 additional placed horses and an each way loss of almost 10
points (-9.75 pts to ISP).
Harry Whittington returned five 3 and 4 year old runners during October with 1 winner
and 1 further placed horse, but our Each Way staking would have seen us down by just
over ¾ of a point. (-0.85 pts (SP)).
This finding a winner lark isn’t that easy is it?
Maurice Barnes’s chasers helped to ease the losses a little with Indian Voyage winning
at Sedgefield at 10/1 from his 8 runners returning +4.00 pts to ISP.
Ed Vaughan and James Tate also helped replenish the coffers with their 20 runners over
the All Weather as backing the runners to win cleared 18 points profit to SP thanks to a
25% strike rate.
The pair actually managed a 40% place rate though backing each way as suspected
would have done little to improve the win returns significantly.
October final figures: +3.40 points
Just to recap on last month we mentioned that we would be following Ben Pauling’s
Non Handicap National Hunt runners in Class 3 or lower during the months of
November and December, with the caveat we would avoid any horse priced up at 50.00
or greater on the Betfair Exchange market and we would back to Win only.
At the time of writing we have had 18 runners of which 6 have won their races and a
further 3 have finished in the places giving us a healthy win strike rate of 33.33% and
a profit based on our WIN only strategy of just less than 2 points. The winning prices
have been on the short side and no doubt the savvy punter will have picked up on the
Pauling runners as we have so we may well see that the returns this year may find
themselves eaten in to, but we will see.
On the Handicappers front we suggested keeping an eye on Ms Margaret Mullins and
Ms Pam Sly runners for the months of November and December.
No runners so far for Margaret Mullins / Pam Sly in National Hunt Handicap races.
Of the Sheila Lavery runners, 6 runners in total which have included one winner at
25/1 Secret Wizard and 2 placers have been seen over in Dundalk since the 1st
November giving each way returns of 26.50 points so far in November.
And so now we turn to Christmas and the New Year, can we set ourselves up to hit the
New Year running?
And so we turn again to the All Weather and a trainer possibly more often seen on the
Turf Flat, Luca Cumani.
2015 saw the Cumani yard lose 35 prestige runners of Sheik Mohammed Obaid Al
Maktoum with the owner giving no reason for his decision to move his horses to other
stables after their 20 year relationship.
Now aged 68 it would be easy for Cumani to have hung up the reins but he is still very
much open for business.
The numbers of runners on the All Weather from the Cumani stable are not numerous
by any stretch of the imagination over the Christmas and New Year period, with just
some 20 runners over the past 5 years.
That said there has been a 40% win strike rate and to Industry Starting Prices you would
have cleared 40+ points profit backing his All Weather runners during December and
January.
When we dig a little deeper we can also see that the runners when they do hit the All
Weather are tended to be dropped in to a lower class of race.
In fact all of the 8 winners have come from Class 4 races or lower.
Not surprisingly the winter of 2015/2016, Post “Obexit” as the stable refer to it resulted
in just 3 runners hitting the All Weather and finishing somewhere out with the washing,
but one bad year does not a bad trainer make.
Cumani was reported in the Thoroughbred Owner & Breeder as being as “determined as
ever to train top-class winners”.
Well he may just throw out one or two potentials on to the All Weather this winter and
we will be watching…just in case.
David Simcock (DM Simcock) has been touched upon in previous years for his All
Weather runners.
A win strike rate during the December / January window of 24% is not to be sniffed at
and that strike rate is pretty consistent across the tracks but it is the Handicappers that
offer up the value from this stable.
The past 5 years would have returned more than 100 points to SP but as we can see
from the above we need to look in a little more detail at the numbers.
2014 was an exceptional year returning over 85 points of profit; however the strike rate
matched these exceptional figures with a win rate of over 40%.
3 of the 10 runners had SP’s of 25/1, 25/1 and 33/1
For our benefit though we need to show the results in a different manner. HRB can only
show the complete years whereas for our purposes we are looking at the last month of
one year and the first month of the following, so what do those results actually show us?
2016 / 2017
December 2016 = +7.00
January 2017 = +1.50
Total = +8.50
2015/2016
December 2015 = +1.50
January 2016 = +17.88
Total = +19.38
2014/2015
December 2014 = +51.00
January 2015 = +7.00
Total = +58.00
2013/2014
December 2013 = -5.25
January 2014 = +36.75
Total = +31.50
2012/2013
December 2012 = -7.00
January 2013 = +3.07
Total = -3.93
We think we are willing to follow David Simcock’s Handicap runners on the All
Weather over December and January and be prepared for a modest profit but if you
really want to improve the profit chances, concentrate on his runners aged 6 or less. The
older runners have won the odd race but of 16 runners aged 7yrs + just 3 have won their
races.
Now for a couple of possibly lesser known names.
Dr Jon Scargill learnt his trade from; among many, Luca Cumani, with just a small
stable of runners he unconventionally obtained a training licence after having completed
a first class Honours degree in Biochemistry from University College London.
According to his website, after transferring to St John's College Cambridge to complete
his PhD he found that the lure of the nearby flat racing headquarters’ at Newmarket was
just too enticing and after completing his PhD he decided that the road of a racehorse
trainer was for him.
His winners over the past 5 years have tended to come from the All Weather and
although the strike rate of 10.66% may not be outstanding overall, losing just over 7.5
points isn’t a wipe out.
Interestingly though those 13 winners have all come from Class 5 or Class 6 races at
Kempton AW or Lingfield.
But ignore his 2 year old runners as these are 0 from 7 runs.
And finally Robyn Brisland
Brisland, a former jockey and now trainer, has been operating since 2016 and so it is
early days but he certainly hit the ground running in 2016 with some impressive
statistics.
2016 saw 11 winners from 63 runners and a profit for the year of more than 50 points.
The 2017 season hasn’t got off to quite the same flying start overall.
But, if we break down the runners this year between Handicappers and Non
Handicappers it is clear to see where any potential profits may lie.
16 placers from 28 Non Handicap starts is a superb strike rate and had you backed those
runners each way you would be 16 points up so far in 2017.
On the basis of these above figures we are going to see out the Old and bring in the New
by following Robyn Brisland’s Non Handicap runners on the All Weather.
Happy Christmas!
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Product Reviews
Cost: £57.00 per month / £114.00 per quarter (There is a waiting list to join).
The Trial: The inaugural month for Racing Goldmine has been busy. Their emailed
selections have been received late each evening with normally 2 to 4 selections per
evening being highlighted for the following days racing.
All told for the month of October we received 344 selections for 113 races where 15
became non runners.
Of the remaining 329 selections 47 returned as winners which is a strike rate of a shade
over 14%.
On that basis you wouldn’t suspect much of a profit but to Best odds Guaranteed and
simple 1 point level stakes they returned a profit of 36 points which yields an ROI of
almost 11%.
Betfair Starting Prices didn’t perform quite so well and as a result just about broke even.
We still have another couple of months to go before we finalised our verdict and so we
will wait to see if the pre launch glory profits can be resumed.
Conclusion: Watching and waiting. You can find out more here.
Cost: £10.00 for the first month then £20.00 per month thereafter.
The Trial: The service had reported stellar profits for each of the six months prior to its
launch but sadly October saw a complete nose dive in the opposite direction and the
service saw October well and truly in the red.
Now there is often an argument against joining a service while it is on a high as
undoubtedly there will be a correction at some time, so maybe we landed on the
correction.
There were exactly 100 bets suggested for the month based on1 point level stakes with 1
of the races having two selections with ½ point stakes.
With a total of 10 wins based on the advised odds with BOG the service lost just over
37 points (-47 points BFSP).
In fairness to the service though they do promised a minimum of 10% return each
month and as such had you joined the service that month you should have your
subscription refunded under this guarantee.
Conclusion: Needs to do a turn around. You can find out more here.
Cost: £44.00 + VAT per month / £88.00 + VAT per quarter
The Trial: Strangely the service decided to cease sending selections on 11th October
after less than a month. You may remember that last month we were very pleased with
the service however we are not sure whether the 22 consecutive losers which occurred
in October meant that the selections dried out.
Our results left us with a profit of 18.25pts at advised prices and 3pts at SP.
Conclusion: Would have liked to have seen if they could have turned things back
around? Shame. Find out more here.
Editors Note: The Editorial office checked with Betfan who manage the Lucky 8
service and the selections are still being sent out daily and the full proofed list is
available here https://members.betfanplus.com/proof/betfan/?oppid=338. Betfan are
investigating the none delivery of selections to our reviewer.
Cost: £1.00 + VAT Special Offer (Subsequent months £39.95)
The Trial: It was a quiet month this month with just 17 of the 39 doubles landing
successfully which left us with an overall loss to 1 point level stakes of 0.20pts, okay
let’s call it break even.
Overall we are still 18 points in profit and currently we are more than happy to continue
following the service.
Conclusion: Overall still looking positive. Click here to find out more.
Cost: £24.00 per month + VAT / Quarterly £48.00 + VAT
The Trial: We finished receiving selections from Factor Seven Mid October and after
our full 3 month trial came to an end the closing salvo was disappointing.
Our final month produced 1 win from 22 bets which reduced the 3 month’s total profit
at advised prices to a shade less than 31 points.
Although the overall profit looks reasonable it is worth bearing in mind that there were
5 big priced winners and had you backed to SP you would have seen a loss of 23 points.
You need to be able to stomach long losing runs to sit well with this service and if you
are happy with that then you may find this service useful, but be warned matching the
advised prices can prove difficult.
Conclusion: If you can stomach long losing runs you may well turn a good profit but
for us it isn’t a comfortable fit. You can find out more here.
Cost: Pay As You Go Registration £5.00 / 6 Months £199.00
The Trial: Another service with a poor month showing a loss of 27 points though
overall we are still showing a positive of almost 58 points from an outlay of 576 points.
As the service concentrates predominantly on the flat we have now decided to cease
reporting on this service.
Conclusion: Find out more here.
Cost: £169.00
The Trial: This service suggests that over the past 12 months it has returned a 55%
strike rate and a 51% ROI.
It is early days but based on the selections received to date we have had 9 winners from
26 selections with SP’s of between ½ and 10/3 and consequently we have broken even
both at SP and BFSP.
Conclusion: Too early to say. Find out more here.
Next month we hope to have an update on two new services which are under scrutiny,
Recovery Racing an Kippers Daily Value.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Click Here to Find out More About Sports Betting Pays
Tipster Top Ten
1. Bundesliga Correct Score – SR 13% ROI 90%
Still riding on the back of that 36.00 win we mentioned last month Bundesliga Correct
Score are maintaining hold of their hard earned profits but how long for we are not sure.
Let’s hope that they prove us wrong and the big priced winners keep coming in.
Find out more about the service here
2. Each Way Hits – SR 43% ROI 63%
Second place this month is Each Way Hits following on from their climb last month
they have continued onwards and upwards.
October had its ups and downs but closed overall over 80 points to the positive with
November seeing a good start too. 3 out of 3 won their races on the 8th November
which were Chestnut Ben 9/1, Briscola 12/1 and Beckoning 13/2.
Find out more about the service
3. Unity Racing Investments – SR 14% ROI 40%
October ended on a flyer for Unity Racing Investments thanks to the 50/1 shot Perfect
Pasture and saw November kick off with yet ANOTHER 50/1 shot in Bollin Line!
Yep that’s two buses calling in at the stop at the same time.
Find out more about the service
4. Lucky 7 Naps – SR 33% ROI 40%
A regular in the table is the Lucky 7 Naps service. Overall the service is showing a very
healthy ROI but November has got off to a sticky start but they appear to be recovering
slowly but surely.
It could pay to join now as we all know that joining at the bottom of the slope always
offers more chance of a nice upward climb.
Find out more about the service
5. Sprint From The Front – SR 24% ROI 40%
Well the move over to the All Weather for Sprint From The Front has gone pretty well
kicking off with 16/1 A Sure Welcome at Wolverhampton.
We are certainly hoping that the transition continues in such a favourable manner.
Find out more about the service here
6. Andy Bell Racing – SR 43% ROI 25%
October saw a nice and steady regular profit and if you had drawn a graph you would
have seen that perfectly formed steady upward curve being formed. November slipped a
little in to the negative but the service has already turned things back around and are
heading northwards again.
Find out more about the service
7. Racing Consultants – SR 17% ROI 21%
Good to see the Racing Consultants back in the table this month. October was an
excellent month returning a shade over 50 points profit and has seen the Consultants
back on form.
Find out more about the service
8. High Roller Racing – SR 44% ROI 18%
A new entrant to the table this month is High Roller Racing. October wasn’t the most
memorable month but November has certainly got off to an amazing start showing 45
points for the first 2 weeks alone.
Find out more about the service
9. AWesome Racing – SR 22% ROI 13%
Awesome Racing are hanging on the tables shirt tails thanks to an extremely healthy
September but October was bad and November so far has been even worse!
They really need to turn things around to still be here with us in to the New Year.
Find out more about the service
10. Pace Ace – SR 36% ROI 12%
Pace Ace have snook in to the table this month but purely, like Awesome Racing,
thanks to a healthy September. It seems that October and November has found out a few
services recently, it’s not uncommon though for things generally to be a little unsettled
as we change over in to the National Hunt season. Let’s hope that things settle down for
a positive New Year.
Find out more about the service
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
