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Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing By Pearce Shewchuk June 12, 2018
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Page 1: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing By Pearce Shewchuk June 12, 2018

Page 2: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Introduction This presentation provides an overview of the key assumptions, methodology, and findings of: • The City of Edmonton’s Growth Study; and • The Fiscal Impact Analysis of the City’s of Edmonton’s Proposed Annexation. The Growth Study provides an overview of: • The historic and regional context in which the City of Edmonton’s growth is considered. • Anticipated future growth and land needs of the City. • The methodology, data, and assumptions relied upon in the analysis. • The City’s proposed annexation area. The Fiscal Impact Analysis provides an overview of:

• The prevailing fiscal conditions of the three parties to the proposed annexation: the City of Edmonton, Leduc County, and the Town of Beaumont.

• The short- and long-term fiscal impacts of the proposed annexation on the three municipalities and property owners.

Page 3: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Study

Page 4: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context • The City’s growth profile over the past 100 years has

generally been positive and, in the past 5- years, in parallel with the expanding resource-based growth of the province.

53,846

1961 Annexation of Beverly

1964 Annexation of Jasper Place

1982 Annexation

932,546

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nds)

Appendix 5.0 p. 5

Page 5: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context • Over the years, the City has experienced periodic

cycles of faster and slower growth that have reflected changing levels and fluctuations in global, national, and provincial economic activity.

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Pop

ulat

ion

(thou

sand

s)

2.3%per year

1.1%per year

2.5%per year

Appendix 5.0 p. 7

Page 6: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context • This growth has been

accommodated through period annexations to accommodate new development – the most recent of which took effect 36 years ago.

Appendix 5.0 p. 6

Page 7: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context The City of Edmonton constitutes the primary centre and dominant urban core of a large metropolitan region that has doubled in size over the past 40 years to roughly 1.3 million people today. The City: • Is home to 71% of the region’s population and more

than three-quarters of the region’s employment. • Acts as a central hub for the movement of goods and

people within the region and with other parts of the province.

• Is a regional service centre for education, health care, housing, and social services and facilities.

Appendix 5.0 p. 9

Page 8: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context The continued prominence of the City in the Capital Region is a stated objective of the City, as articulated in its Municipal Development Plan (MDP): • “[to] support and maintain Edmonton as the major growth centre in the

Region” the City “will maintain its share of regional population and business growth within its boundaries” (MDP 8.1.2)

The City has established important planning policies in support of these goals: • Ensure a combination of single-family and multi-family housing development

potential is available for the next 30 years (3.2.1.1). • Ensure there is sufficient land available to sustain economic opportunities

(3.2.1.2). • Achieve a balance between residential, industrial, commercial, institutional,

natural and recreational land uses in the City through land development policies and decisions. (3.2.1.3).

Appendix 5.0 p. 13

Page 9: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context The role of the City in the region is echoed by the Edmonton Metropolitan Region Growth Plan. • The Plan incorporates a number of key strategies for

managing the region, including: ○ Increasing livability in the region; and ○ Improving the region’s global economic competitiveness.

• The City provides a number of critical supports necessary to achieving the goals set out in the Plan. ○ Leadership in compact and contiguous development. ○ Efficiency in land use. ○ Ability to accommodate a variety of employment activities and

provide the required supports. ○ Provision of critical infrastructure and services.

Appendix 5.0 p. 13/14

Page 10: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context • The Edmonton Metropolitan Region Board (EMRB,

formerly the Capital Region Board) has developed a policy framework for managing population and employment growth in the region.

• Within this framework, the EMRB has identified areas to support urban growth throughout the region and Edmonton’s proposed annexation is within an area identified for future urban growth so as to optimize existing and planned infrastructure.

Appendix 5.0 p. 15

Page 11: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Growth Context Appendix 5.0 p. 16

Page 12: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Study Methodology In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for

residential, commercial, and industrial uses. • Compare the future needs to the remaining supply of

land within the City. • Identify the needs of the City that cannot be

accommodated within its current land base. ○ Establish the need for the annexation area lands to

accommodate future growth.

Appendix 5.0 p. 17/18

Page 13: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Proposed Annexation Area

Appendix 5.0 p. 19

Page 14: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Residential Population growth: • Driven by Capital Region Board (CRB) projections for

the region (2014 to 2044): ○ Adjusted to reflect 2016 census ○ Extended to a 50 year time horizon ○ Modified to show the City of Edmonton accommodating 70%

of the region’s growth.

• In 2016, the City of Edmonton was home to 932,500 people.

• In the high growth scenario, City of Edmonton is expected to reach 2.17 million people by 2066.

Appendix 5.0 p. 22

Page 15: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Residential In general, we made a number of conservative assumptions when forecasting the City’s land needs. Some examples include: Housing Preferences: • Current housing preferences in the City favour low-density,

single-family homes. • We’ve assumed a shift towards a market preference for higher

density units over a 20-year period.

Unit Type Proportion of Building Permits 2006-2015

LDR 55%

MDR-R 11%

MDR-A 29%

HDR 5%

Appendix 5.0 p. 24

Page 16: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Residential • We’ve assumed a shift towards a market preference for

higher-density units over a 20 year period.

• We’ve also assumed that an increasing portion of residential land needs will be met by infill development over the next 20 years. ○ 14% average over past ten years ○ Policy target of 25% by 2036

Unit Type Future Proportion of Housing Demand (% units)

LDR 50%

MDR-R 13%

MDR-A 29%

HDR 8%

Appendix 5.0 p. 25

Page 17: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Residential • We’ve also assumed infill occurs at a higher density

than existing levels.

• The geographic distribution of growth will follow historic patterns – preference for southern portion of the City (59%).

Unit Type Future Proportion of Housing Demand (% units)

LDR 23%

MDR-R 8%

MDR-A 53%

HDR 16%

Appendix 5.0 p. 26

Page 18: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Conclusions - Residential Remaining Supply of Residential Lands

Unit Type South North

LDR 2033 2047

MDR-R 2033 2039

MDR-A 2044 2055

HDR 2062 2086

Appendix 5.0 p. 39

Page 19: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Industrial • Historic absorption rate of industrial lands varies

between 44 net ha/yr and 291 net ha/yr. ○ Mostly light and medium industrial development

145

197

44

89

46

183

143

291

155

78

Average 137

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Appendix 5.0 p. 29

Page 20: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Industrial

Area of the City Supply at Year End 2015

(net hectares)

Conventional Industry

South/Southeast 481 Northwest 687 Northeast 122 Edmonton Energy & Tech Park 2,097 Total Conventional 3,387

Petrochemical

Edmonton Energy & Tech Park 1,232 Total Petrochemical 1,232

Appendix 5.0 p. 31

Page 21: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Industrial Currently, the City’s three major industrial areas serve, with some overlaps, largely different market segments: • the northwest: logistics, distribution, and construction; • the south/southeast: oil and gas and mixed

commercial/industrial uses; and • the northeast: medium/heavy construction and processing. Land shortages in one industrial area are unlikely to simply shift demand to another industrial area elsewhere in the City.

Appendix 5.0 p. 30

Page 22: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Industrial The City’s south industrial sector is particularly attractive to industrial businesses because of its proximity to: • the Anthony Henday ring road; • the QEII highway, rail lines, and the Edmonton

International Airport (EIA); • the large south Edmonton labour force and

marketplace; and • regional commercial amenities such as South

Edmonton Common.

Appendix 5.0 p. 30

Page 23: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Key Assumptions - Industrial • Continued split of absorption 40% south, 60% north. • Lands in the south will be fully exhausted before

moving into the annexation area ○ Conservative due to lack of choice ○ Has the effect of overstating the amount of supply remaining

in the City.

Appendix 5.0 p. 31

Page 24: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Conclusions - Industrial • The City will exhaust its current supply of industrial

lands as follows:

Area of the City Supply Exhausted Conventional

South/Southeast 2023 Northwest 2030 Northeast 2031

Appendix 5.0 p. 42

Page 25: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Conclusions – Annexation Area The proposed annexation area will extend the supply of land available to the City to accommodate future residential and industrial growth. • With respect to residential lands:

○ Will accommodate 206,000 more people in the City as compared to no annexation.

• Industrial supply will be exhausted by 2044 (26 years).

Unit Type Annexation Residential

Supply Exhausted (Year)

LDR 2051 (33 years) MDR-R 2055 (37 years) MDR-A 2055 (48 years) HDR 2066 (48 years)

Appendix 5.0 p. 40 & 42

Page 26: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Fiscal Impact Analysis

Page 27: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Overview The Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) of the proposed annexation examined the immediate and long-term impact of the proposed annexation on affected ratepayers and municipalities. The FIA addresses the financial implications of the City’s final application. • Reflects compensation and other financial conditions proposed

by the City in consultation with Leduc County and the Town of Beaumont.

Appendix 7.0 p. 4

Page 28: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Methodology Conceptually, our approach consisted of: • Developing financial models of affected municipalities and

forecasting future fiscal conditions in the absence of the proposed annexation.

• Adjusting the parameters of the financial models to reflect the gain/loss of annexation lands. ○ Taxation revenues ○ Non-tax revenues ○ Operating expenditures

• Quantifying the fiscal difference between “with” and “without” annexation.

• Results presented for immediately following the annexation and in the longer-term.

Appendix 7.0 p. 4

Page 29: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Data and Assumptions Focus on Leduc County as the Town of Beaumont is nominally affected – transfer of one-mile right-of-way of 50th Street from the Town to the City of Edmonton. Financial analysis based on 2016 budgets for the affected municipalities. • The derivation of key metrics can be seen in

Appendix A of the FIA.

Page 30: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context Key indicators used to assess elements of the City and County’s current fiscal wellbeing: • Equalized assessment. • Non-residential assessment base. • Relative share of region’s property assessments. • Comparative level of residential and non-residential tax

rates. • Municipal debt level as a percentage of provincially

defined limit. • Municipal expenditures per capita.

Page 31: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Total Equalized Assessment per Capita

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tota

l Ass

essm

ent

per C

apita

Edmonton | Other CR Urbans

Appendix 7.0 p. 23

Page 32: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Non-Residential Share of Assessment Base

26% 26%

22%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non

-resi

dent

ial

shar

e of

tot

al

asse

ssm

ent

Edmonton | CR Urbans without Edmonton

Appendix 7.0 p. 23

Page 33: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Share of Capital Region Residential and Non-Residential Assessments

68.9%67.5%

66.6% 66.2%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Shar

e of

Reg

ion

City Residential Share | City Non-Residential Share

Appendix 7.0 p. 24

Page 34: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Residential and Non-Residential Property Tax Rates

3.95.6

8

15.5

12.5

23.7

Residential Non-Residential0

5

10

15

20

25

Mill

Rat

e

Range

Range

Edmonton | Other CR Urbans

Appendix 7.0 p. 24

Page 35: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Debt as a Percentage of Debt Limit

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Edmonton CR Urbans without Edmonton

Deb

t as

Per

cent

age

of D

ebt

Lim

it

Range

Appendix 7.0 p. 25

Page 36: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context - Edmonton Municipal Operating Costs per Capita

$2,481

$3,059

$1,895$2,250

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ope

ratin

g ex

pens

es p

er c

apita

Edmonton | CR urbans without Edmonton

Appendix 7.0 p. 26

Page 37: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context – Leduc County Total Equalized Assessment per Capita

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tota

l Ass

essm

ent

per C

apita

Leduc County | CR Urbans with Edmonton | CR Rural without Leduc County

Appendix 7.0 p. 27

Page 38: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context – Leduc County Non-Residential Share of Assessment Base

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non

-resi

dent

ial

shar

e of

tot

al

asse

ssm

ent

Leduc County | CR Rurals without Leduc County | CR Urbans with Edmonton

Appendix 7.0 p. 28

Page 39: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context – Leduc County Equalized Assessment per Road Kilometer

$3,273,997

$2,630,124

Leduc County CR Rurals without Leduc County

Appendix 7.0 p. 28

Page 40: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context – Leduc County Residential and Non-Residential Property Tax Rates

3.95.6

3.3

7.43.2

6.7

12.5

23.7

3.8

19.3

Residential Non-Residential0

5

10

15

20

25

Leduc County | CR Urbans | Other CR Rurals

Range

RangeRange

Appendix 7.0 p. 29

Page 41: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Municipal Fiscal Context – Leduc County Debt as a Percentage of Debt Limit

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Leduc County CR Urbans with Edmonton Other CR Rurals

Deb

t as

Per

cent

age

of D

ebt

Lim

it

Range

Range

Appendix 7.0 p. 30

Page 42: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Proposed Annexation Area • The proposed annexation area is largely undeveloped.

○ Mostly agricultural or parkland use ○ Some residential acreages ○ Approximately 700 people would be affected

• Would add 12% to City’s land base. • Would reduce County’s land base by 3%. • Town of Beaumont’s land area minimally reduced by the

proposed transfer of the one-mile right-of-way of 50th Street to the City’s jurisdiction.

• Increase City’s assessment base by 0.1%. • Reduce the County’s assessment base by 1.9% • The Town’s assessment base would be unchanged.

Appendix 7.0 p. 6

Page 43: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Immediate Impacts – Leduc County • Foregone revenues of approximately $780,000

annually (mostly taxes and user fees). • Realize operating cost savings of nearly $400,000

annually. • Before compensation, the result is a loss of net

revenue equal to $380,000 annually. • The City and County have agreed to tax loss and other

compensation totaling $8.5 million. ○ $3.2 million in 2019 ○ $5.3 over 10 years ○ Will more than offset the potential cost to the County

Appendix 7.0 p. 16

Page 44: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Immediate Impacts – Town of Beaumont • The annexation of the one-mile stretch of 50th Street

will have the effect of reducing the Town’s transportation and operational maintenance costs by $60,000.

• No assessable lands (i.e. 50th St ROW) are affected by taxation matters between the City and Town.

Appendix 7.0 p. 17

Page 45: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Immediate Impacts – City of Edmonton • Annual cost increase of approximately $5.1 million. • Taxes and other revenue are expected to increase by

about $1.1 million annually. • Net cost to the City will be approximately $4.0 million

annually. ○ Add to this the compensation package payable to Leduc

County. ○ With compensation, the effective cost will average about $5.0

million annually over the first ten years following annexation. ○ This will require a tax increase of about 0.5% in the City of

Edmonton over the same period.

Appendix 7.0 p. 15

Page 46: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Immediate Impacts – Landowners • The City recognizes that its property taxes for

residential and non-residential properties (but not farmland or machinery and equipment) are higher than those in Leduc County.

• Without tax protection arrangements: ○ Taxes on residential and non-residential properties would be

set to increase by 85% and 148% respectively. • The City has agreed to tax protection for a 50-year

period for annexed properties (excluding linear). ○ Pay the lower of the City or County rates. ○ Subject to triggering conditions

Appendix 7.0 p. 40

Page 47: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County The County has a favourable financial position. • Strong tax base • Low property tax levels Our analysis indicates that the County: • Will experience continuing but modest residential growth. • Well-positioned to accommodate considerable non-

residential development. ○ Nisku and North Nisku ○ Within the EIA lands ○ South Devon industrial zone

• Non-residential growth will serve to offset the costs of its residential growth while maintaining a positive fiscal position.

Appendix 7.0 p. 34

Page 48: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County Leduc County Population Projections

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

Pop

ulat

ion

Pro

ject

ions

Without Annexation | With Annexation

Appendix 7.0 p. 33

Page 49: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County The proposed annexation will not adversely affect the fiscal condition of the County. • In the years following the annexation, the County’s tax

levels are expected to decline modestly (constant dollars). ○ Compensation agreement ○ Continued strong industrial growth in the County

Appendix 7.0 p. 34

Page 50: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County Leduc County Property Tax Rates with Annexation

3.2 3.1

6.6 6.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

Mun

icip

al T

ax (

mill

rate

)

Residential | Non-Residential

Appendix 7.0 p. 33

Page 51: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County Projected Assessment Composition with Annexation (Non-Residential)

66%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

Per

cent

of A

sses

smen

t

Appendix 7.0 p. 34

Page 52: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County Projected Assessment per Capita with Annexation (constant dollars)

$591,440

$756,748

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

Pro

ject

ed A

sses

smen

ts p

er C

apita

Appendix 7.0 p. 35

Page 53: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County Without annexation: • The County would retain the lands proposed by the

City for residential growth and also the lands immediately north of the EIA, largely encompassed within the Noise Exposure Forecast-affected (NEF) area. ○ Could be used to further expand the County’s non-residential

assessment base. ○ Without additional residential growth, the County would likely

further enhance its favourable fiscal outlook.

Appendix 7.0 p. 35

Page 54: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Leduc County • If the County were to accommodate any residential

growth, there would be significant fiscal implications to the County. ○ 206,000 people will need to be accommodated in the

annexation lands – regardless of jurisdiction. • Ten-fold increase in County’s population

○ Significant expansion in the County’s costs associated with people-based service provision and elevated service provision.

○ The County’s favourable fiscal position and tax levels would be negatively affected as compared to if the City’s annexation is approved.

Appendix 7.0 p. 35

Page 55: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Town of Beaumont Long-term fiscal impacts to the Town of Beaumont are expected to be positive. • In the near term, avoided operating and maintenance

costs related to 50th Street. • In the long term, avoided recapitalization and

upgrading costs. • The Town’s participation in a new Intermunicipal

Planning Framework Agreement with the City and County is expected to yield fiscal benefits to the Town via more coordinated infrastructure planning and intermunicipal cost-sharing agreements.

Appendix 7.0 p. 43

Page 56: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – City of Edmonton The City has demonstrated its ability to sustain itself fiscally over many decades of growth and geographic expansion. • Current annexation is 1/10th the size of the City’s last

major annexation (in 1982) and the City has a population that is 75% larger than it was 35 years ago.

• The long-term impacts to the City largely reflect the implications of incremental growth and development to the City: ○ Accommodate an additional 206,000 people ○ Additional commercial and industrial development

Appendix 7.0 p. 36

Page 57: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – City of Edmonton The fiscal benefits to the City will become more pronounced over time as development advances into the annexation lands. Project City Industrial Land Absorption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

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Ann

exat

ion

Are

a In

dust

rial

Land

s A

bsor

bed

(net

hec

tare

s)

Appendix 7.0 p. 37

Page 58: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – City of Edmonton • New industrial and commercial development helping to

pay for costs related to regional growth and development.

• By the end of the projection period (2049), the City’s tax rates with annexation are expected to be approximately 9.2% lower as compared to the ‘without annexation’ scenario.

Appendix 7.0 p. 38

Page 59: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – City of Edmonton

0

5

10

15

20

25

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

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2026

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2049

Mun

icip

al T

ax (

mill

rate

)

Residential with annex| Residential without annex | Non-Res with annex | Non-Res without annex

Appendix 7.0 p. 39

Page 60: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Long-Term Impacts – Annexed Properties The City has proposed long-term tax protection that will nullify potentially negative municipal property tax impacts on annexed residential and non-residential properties. • Annexed residential and non-residential (excl. linear)

will be taxed at the lower of the City and County rates. • Farmland will benefit as the City’s agricultural tax rates

are below those of the County.

Appendix 7.0 p. 41

Page 61: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Summary of Conclusions • A strong central City is a necessary condition for

regional prosperity and the City needs land for balanced growth to sustain its current role in the region.

• The proposed annexation area will extend the City’s supply of residential and industrial lands by 33 and 26 years respectively. ○ Conservative request in the current context of 50-

year growth areas. • A balanced land use mix in the annexation area

combined with tax protection agreements has resulted in a proposal that has no detrimental effects on the County or Town and is positive in the long term for the City.

Appendix 7.0 p. 44

Page 62: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Nichols Applied Management Inc. Management and Economic Consultants

Suite 2401, 10104 – 103 Avenue NW Edmonton, Alberta T5J 0H8 Main Contact: Pearce Shewchuk, Principal Office: (780) 424‐0091 / Direct: (780) 409‐1759 Email: [email protected] www.nicholsappliedmanagement.com

Page 63: Edmonton Annexation Municipal Government Board Merit Hearing · 2020-06-12 · In brief, the study approach was to: • Quantify the long-term land requirements of the City for residential,

Study Methodology POPULATION GROWTHLow and high (base) scenarios to 2044 from Capital Region Board forecastExtended from 2044-2066 (1.3% per year low, 1.5% per year high)City captures 70.57% of regional growth

Housing MixLDR 55% to 50%MDR-R 10% to 13%MDR-A 29% to 29%HDR 5% to 8% Timeframe 20 years

DistributionNorth 41%South 59%Infil l 13% to 25% (timeframe 20 years)

Projected Demand137 net ha/year Indexed to population growthSource: Historical city-wide absorption

Distribution 30% NE, 30% NW, 40% S net of EETPpetrochemical developmentEqual annual development of EETP over 50 years from 2018

Available UnitsLDR (46,971 south, 59,726 north)MDR-R (9,692 south,9,634 north)MDR-A (29,076 south, 28,901 north)HDR (11,133 south, 13,945 north)Source: ASP/NSP less absorbed units

RESIDENTIALDensitySW 45 and 35 units/haSE 35 units/haCapacityLDR 30 units/haMDR-R 60 units/haMDR-A 125 units/haHDR 225 units/haCommercial (8% gross)

Available LandSouth 481 net haNW 684 net haNE 122 net haEETP 3,329 net ha (63% to conventional industry)Source: Vacant Industrial Land Supply 2015, Sustainable Development Department

INDUSTRIALAvailable LandSW 1,952 net haExisting industrial land development deducted.70% of demand lost to North Nisku in the short term

Unmet Demand

Household SizeLDR 2.8MDR-R 2.8MDR-A 1.8HDR 1.5

CITY DEMAND

EXISTING CITY SUPPLY

RESIDENTIAL

INDUSTRIAL

RESIDENTIAL

INDUSTRIAL

ANNEXATION

Appendix 5.0 p. 21


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