EducaonalandLabour*Market …queensu.ca/sps/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.spswww/files/files/... ·...

Educa&onal and Labour Market Challenges and Prospects for

Aboriginal Young Adults in Canada

Andrew Sharpe Centre for the Study of Living Standards

Presenta&on Prepared for The Millennials’ Challenge: Young Adults and

Intergenera&onal Fairness Queen’s Interna&onal Ins&tute on Social Policy

August 24-‐26, 2015

Overview of Presenta&on I.  Introduc&on and Context II.  Educa&onal AQainment of Aboriginal Young Adults III.  Labour Market Performance of Aboriginal Youth IV.  CSLS Es&mates of Closing the Aboriginal Educa&on

Gap V.  Factors Affec&ng the Labour Market Prospects of

Aboriginal Young People A.  Commodity Prices B.  Retraining Opportuni&es C.  Educa&on D.  Social Support

VI.  Conclusion 2

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 1996 Census (Catalogue Number 93F0025XDB96002), 2001 Census (Catalogue Number 97F0011XCB2001002), 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐558-‐XCB2006006), and 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐011-‐X2011026).

799,005

976,305

1,172,790

1,400,685

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Aboriginal Popula.on, Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011

22 per cent growth

20 per cent growth

19 per cent growth

3


529,040

608,850

698,025

851,560

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

First Na.ons Popula.on, Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011

15 per cent growth

15 per cent growth

22 per cent growth

4

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2001 Census (Catalogue Number 97F0011XCB2001001), 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐558-‐XCB2006006), and 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐011-‐X2011026). 5

272,410

300,755 320,030

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2001 2006 2011

First Na.ons Popula.on, On Reserve, 2001, 2006, 2011

10 per cent growth

6 per cent growth

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2001 Census (Catalogue Number 97F0011XCB2001001), 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐558-‐XCB2006006), and 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐011-‐X2011026). 6

336,435

397,270

531,530

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2001 2006 2011

First Na.ons Popula.on, Off Reserve, 2001, 2006, 2011

18 per cent growth

34 per cent growth


204,115

292,305

389,780

451,795

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Me.s Popula.on, Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011

43 per cent growth

33 per cent growth

16 per cent growth

7


40,220 45,070

50,480

59,440

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Inuit Popula.on, Canada, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011

12 per cent growth

12 per cent growth

18 per cent growth

8


2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1996 2001 2006 2011

Aboriginal Share of Total Canadian Popula.on, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

9

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2001 Census (97F0011XCB2001042), 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐560-‐XCB2006028), 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐012-‐X2011044)

Δ = 7.7

Δ = 8.6

Δ = 3.2

Δ = 8.5

Δ = 10.9

Δ = 3.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Non-‐Aboriginal Aboriginal First Na&ons on Reserve

First Na&ons off Reserve

Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 15-‐24 with any cer.ficate, diploma, or degree by Aboriginal iden.ty, Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

2001

2006

2011

10

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐560-‐XCB2006028), 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐012-‐X2011044)

Δ = 2.4

Δ = 5.8

Δ = 3.1

Δ = 7.7

Δ = 4.9

Δ = 5.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 20-‐24 with any cer.ficate, diploma, or degree by Aboriginal iden.ty, Canada, 2006 and 2011 (%)

2006

2011

11

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐012-‐X2011044). Some provinces / territories excluded due to small sample size.

0

20

40

60

80

100

MB SK AB CA YT ON BC QC NB NS NL

First Na.ons aged 20-‐24 with any cer.ficate, diploma, or degree, Canadian provinces and

territories, 2011 (%)

Panel A: Off Reserve

0

20

40

60

80

100

NT MB NL AB QC SK CA ON BC NS NB PE

Panel B: On Reserve

12


13

Δ = 12.3

Δ = 8.9

Δ = 0.0

Δ = 9.0

Δ = 13.1

Δ = 2.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80



Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 25-‐44 with at least a post-‐secondary creden.al, 2001, 2006, 2011, Canada

2001

2006

2011


Δ = 2.7

Δ = 3.2

Δ = -‐1.7

Δ = 3.2

Δ = 5.3

Δ = -‐2.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80



Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 25-‐34 with at least a post-‐secondary creden.al by Aboriginal iden.ty, Canada, 2006 and 2011 (%)

2006

2011

14


0

20

40

60

80

100

MB PE NT SK YT AB BC CA NB ON NS QC NL

First Na.ons aged 25-‐34 with any post-‐secondary creden.al, Canadian provinces and territories, 2011

(%)


0

20

40

60

80

100

MB NL AB SK CA PE NT NB BC ON QC NS

Panel B: On Reserve

15


Δ = 9.6

Δ = 4.9

Δ = 0.7

Δ = 4.3

Δ = 7.3

Δ = 3.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 25-‐44 with at least a bachelor's degree, by Aboriginal iden.ty Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

2001

2006

2011

16


Δ = 3.1

Δ = 2.6

Δ = -‐0.2

Δ = 1.9

Δ = 4.1

Δ = 1.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



Me&s Inuit

Share of popula.on aged 25-‐34 with at least a bachelor's degree by Aboriginal iden.ty, Canada, 2006 and 2011 (%)

2006

2011

17


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

YT MB AB NT SK BC CA NB ON QC NS NL

First Na.ons aged 25-‐34 with a university degree, Canadian provinces and territories, 2011 (%)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AB MB SK QB CA BC ON NB NS

Panel B: On Reserve

18

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐012-‐X2011044).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Non-‐Aboriginal Aboriginal Me&s Inuit First Na&ons on Reserve


Distribu.on of Highest Educa.onal AXainment by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Total Popula.on Aged 25-‐34, Canada, 2011 (%)

No cer&ficate, diploma, or degree

High School Only

Post-‐secondary below bachelor's degree

Bachelor's degree or above

19


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



Distribu.on of Highest Educa.onal AXainment by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Labour Force Aged 25-‐34, Canada, 2011, (%)


High School Only



20


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Non-‐Aboriginal

Aboriginal Me&s Inuit First Na&ons on Reserve


Distribu.on of Highest Educa.onal AXainment by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Total Popula.on Aged 15-‐24, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



21


0

10

20

30

40

50

60



Distribu.on of Highest Educa.onal AXainment by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Labour Force Aged 15-‐24, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



22

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Data Tables from the 2001 Census (Catalogue Number 97F0011XCB2001044), 2006 Census (Catalogue Number 97-‐564-‐XCB2006002), and 2011 Na&onal Household Survey (Catalogue Number 99-‐012-‐X2011044).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

First Na&ons on Reserve

Inuit Aboriginal First Na&ons off Reserve

Me&s Non-‐Aboriginal

Labour Force Par.cipa.on Rate by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Ages 25-‐44, Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

2001

2006

2011

23


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

First Na&ons on Reserve

Inuit Aboriginal First Na&ons off Reserve

Me&s Non-‐Aboriginal

Employment Rate by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Ages 25-‐44, Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

2001

2006

2011

24


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Non-‐Aboriginal Me&s First Na&ons off Reserve

Aboriginal Inuit First Na&ons on Reserve

Unemployment Rate by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Ages 25-‐44, Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 (%)

Series1

Series2

Series3

25


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Non-‐Aboriginal Me&s Aboriginal First Na&ons off Reserve

Inuit First Na&ons on Reserve

Unemployment Rate by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Ages 15-‐24, 2001, 2006, 2011, Canada (%)

2001

2006

2011

26


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Employment Rates by Aboriginal Iden.ty and Educa.onal AXainment, Ages 25-‐34, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



27


22.9

30.7

43.9 46.5

48.2

52.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



Difference between employment rates by Aboriginal iden.ty, university degree vs no creden.als, Ages 25-‐34, Canada, 2011,

percentage points

28


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Labour Force Par.cipa.on Rates by Aboriginal Iden.ty and Educa.onal AXainment, Ages 25-‐34, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



29


18.6

25.8

35.6 35.0

37.6

43.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


Inuit Aboriginal First Na&ons on Reserve

Difference between par.cipa.on rates by Aboriginal iden.ty, university degree vs no creden.als, Ages 25-‐34, Canada, 2011,

percentage points

30


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



Unemployment Rates by Aboriginal Iden.ty and Educa.onal AXainment, Ages 25-‐34, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



31


7.7

10.1

20.4 21.8

24.6

29.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



Difference between unemployment rates by Aboriginal iden.ty, university degree vs no creden.als, Ages 25-‐34,

Canada, 2011, percentage points

32


0

10

20

30

40

50

60



Unemployment Rates by Aboriginal Iden.ty and Educa.onal AXainment, Ages 20-‐24, Canada, 2011 (%)


High School Only



33

Es&ma&ng the Gains from Closing the Educa&onal AQainment Gap

•  The CSLS has released a series of reports es&ma&ng the economic benefits from closing the gap

•  The most recent, Calver (2015), es&mated the benefits of closing a projected educa&on gap in 2031, based on recent trends in educa&onal aQainment

•  Es&mates based upon data from the Na&onal Household Survey (2011), projec&ons of the Aboriginal popula&on in 2031 produced by Sta&s&cs Canada, and projec&ons of aggregate economic condi&ons by researchers at the university of Toronto

34

Es&ma&ng the Gains from Closing the Educa&onal AQainment Gap

•  Assume that an Aboriginal person who aQains a higher level of educa&on will achieve (on average) the outcomes observed among the similar Aboriginal popula&on with that creden&al

•  Controls for age, sex, and province/territory of residence

•  Es&mates intended as aspira&onal, but are infeasible in prac&ce (unrealis&c to think sufficient numbers of those aged 25+ will go back to school and catch up).

35

Source: Calver, MaQhew (2015). “Closing the Aboriginal Educa&on Gap in Canada: Assessing Progress and Es&ma&ng the Economic Benefits,” CSLS Research Report 2015-‐03. These es&mates assume that the gaps condi&onal upon educa&on observed in the 2011 Na&onal Household Survey would remain.

Age in 2031 Employment (thousands)

GDP (2010 dollars, billions)

Average Aboriginal Employment Income (2010

dollars)

15+ 89.97 $28.34 $11,623

25-‐34 in 2031 (about 9-‐18 today) 17.98 $4.48 $8,412

Poten&al Gains from Elimina&ng the Aboriginal Educa&onal AQainment Gap by 2031, Canada

36

Source: 2011 Na&onal Household Survey, Catalogue Number 99-‐011-‐X2011026

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Non-‐Aboriginal First Na&ons Inuit Aboriginal Mé&s

Share of Total Popula.on Living in the Territories or Western Provinces by Aboriginal Iden.ty, 2011 (%)

37

Source: 2006 Census, Catalogue Number 97-‐558-‐XCB2006006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Aboriginal First Na&ons Mé&s Inuit Non-‐Aboriginal

Distribu.on of Total Popula.on by Aboriginal Iden.ty, Urban, Rural, and On Reserve, Canada, 2006

On reserve

Rural

Urban

38

Source: Sta&s&cs Canada, Labour Force Survey

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Non-‐Aboriginal First Na&ons (off-‐reserve) Aboriginal (excluding those off-‐reserve and in the Territories)

Me&s

Share of employment in occupa.ons unique to primary industry by Aboriginal iden.ty, Canada, 2013 (%)

39

Aboriginal Skills and Training Employment Strategy (ASETS)

•  Aboriginal agreement holders design and deliver employment programs and services suited to the needs of their clients

•  All Aboriginal people, regardless of status or loca&on, may access its programs and services, which include: –  skills development –  training for high-‐demand jobs –  job finding –  programs for youth –  programs for urban and Aboriginal people with disabili&es –  access to child care

40

Private Sector Ini&a&ves

Example: Zibi redevelopment project in OQawa / Ga&neau. •  Project being developed on tradi&onally Algonquin land

•  Developer has signed agreement with Algonquins of Ontario sta&ng that it will hire and train Aboriginal tradespeople, generate opportuni&es for Aboriginal business and entrepreneurship, and create mentorship programs for Aboriginal youth (OQawa Ci&zen, August 20th, 2015)

41

Source: Taken from Drummond, Don, and Ellen Rosenbluth (2013). “The Debate on First Na&ons Educa&on Funding: Mind the Gap,” Working Paper, School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University. hQp://www.queensu.ca/sps/publica&ons/workingpapers/49-‐Drummond-‐Rosenbluth.pdf

42

Source: Taken from Drummond, Don, and Ellen Rosenbluth (2013). “The Debate on First Na&ons Educa&on Funding: Mind the Gap,” Working Paper, School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University. hQp://www.queensu.ca/sps/publica&ons/workingpapers/49-‐Drummond-‐Rosenbluth.pdf

43

Note: 2012/2013 value same as for 2011/2012 due to lack of informa&on for 2012/2013 school year. Source: Nunavut Bureau of Sta&s&cs, Nunavut Public School A1endance Rate, 2001-‐2002 to 2013-‐2014

Nunavut Public School AQendance Rate, 2001/2-‐2013/14 (%)

44

Recent CSLS Research on Aboriginal Issues

•  Calver, MaQhew (2015). “Closing the Aboriginal Educa&on Gap in Canada: Assessing Progress and Es&ma&ng the Economic Benefits,” CSLS Research Report 2015-‐03. Prepared for Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada. hQp://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2015-‐03.pdf

•  Thomas, Jasmin (2015). “Benchmarking Mé&s Economic and Social Development,” CSLS

Research Report 2015-‐07. Prepared for the Mé&s Na&onal Council. hQp://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2015-‐07.pdf

•  Thomas, Jasmin (forthcoming). “Review of Best Prac&ces in Labour Market Forecas&ng with an

Applica&on to the Canadian Aboriginal Popula&on.” Prepared for the Na&onal Associa&on of Friendship Centres.

•  McKellips, Fanny (forthcoming). “Aboriginal Labour Market Informa&on in Canada: An

Overview.” Prepared for the Na&onal Associa&on of Friendship Centres. •  Palesch, Nico (forthcoming). “Crea&ng Opportunity in Inuit Nunangat: Moving Past the Crisis in

Inuit Educa&on and Labour Market Outcomes.” Prepared for Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami

45

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