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Title: The Effects of Subgroup-Specific Accountability on Teacher Turnover and Attrition
Author: Matthew Shirrell
Running Head: Effects of Subgroup Accountability
Affiliation: Graduate School of Education and Human Development, the George Washington
University
Postal Address: 2134 G Street NW, Washington DC 20052 USA
E-mail Address: [email protected]
Acknowledgements: Work on this paper was primarily completed while the author was at
Northwestern University. The research was supported by funding from the Albert Shanker
Institute, the National Academy of Education/Spencer Foundation, and the Institute of Education
Sciences, U.S. Department of Education (through grant R305B080027 to Northwestern
University). The opinions expressed herein do not represent the views of the funders. The author
thanks the North Carolina Education Research Data Center at Duke University for providing
access to the data; David Figlio, Kirabo Jackson, Randall Reback, Jim Spillane, and two
anonymous reviewers for their valuable input; and Kara Bonneau and Bruce Foster for their help
with data.
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Abstract:
The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 required states to set cutoffs to determine which schools
were subject to accountability for their racial/ethnic subgroups. Using a regression discontinuity
design and data from North Carolina, this study examines the effects of this policy on teacher
turnover and attrition. Subgroup-specific accountability had no overall effects on teacher
turnover or attrition, but the policy caused black teachers that taught in schools that were held
accountable for the black student subgroup to leave teaching at significantly lower rates,
compared to black teachers that taught in schools not accountable for the black subgroup’s
performance. The policy also caused shifts in the students assigned to black teachers, with
schools that were held accountable for the black subgroup less likely to assign black students to
black teachers the following year. These findings demonstrate that subgroup-focused policies—
particularly those that use cutoffs to determine subgroup accountability—can shape the
composition of the teacher labor force in unintended ways, and have implications for the design
of future accountability systems that aim to close racial/ethnic gaps in achievement.
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<A>1. Introduction
Significant gaps persist between the academic achievement of students of various races
and socioeconomic levels (Reardon and Robinson 2008). In recent decades, policies have
attempted to close these achievement gaps in a variety of ways, including by implementing
school desegregation orders, encouraging students and their families to move to different
neighborhoods or schools, and instituting promotion or graduation exams (Harris, 2008). Despite
these interventions, these achievement gaps have remained sizeable, and perhaps have even
widened in recent years (Reardon and Robinson 2008; Reardon 2011).
The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB) attempted to close these achievement
gaps in a novel way: by requiring schools to make yearly improvements not only in overall
student achievement, but also in the achievement of students of various subgroups, including
racial/ethnic minority subgroups. NCLB required that the students in each of these subgroups in
each school make yearly gains in achievement (what the law termed “Adequate Yearly
Progress,” or AYP), or the entire school would be labeled as failing. This “subgroup-specific
accountability” had major consequences for schools across the nation, as subgroups’ passage or
failure was a major contributor to whether schools passed or failed the accountability targets set
by NCLB, and thus the degree of sanction that they faced under the law (Reback, Rockoff, and
Schwartz 2014; Davidson et al. 2015).
Recent research has found mixed impacts of subgroup-specific accountability on student
achievement. While some work finds that the policy had the intended effects of raising minority
student achievement (Lauen and Gaddis 2012), and of narrowing at least some racial/ethnic
achievement gaps (Reardon et al. 2013), other work finds that the policy increased schools’
failure rates and lowered schools’ overall performance and the performance of minority students
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in particular (Sims 2013). Despite these advances, however, we know little about the policy’s
effects on teachers, which is important to gain a more complete picture of the policy’s overall
impact. If the policy increased student achievement but resulted in the loss of many teachers, for
example, these benefits and costs should be weighed together when assessing the policy’s overall
effects.
There are a variety of reasons to believe that subgroup-specific accountability might have
affected teachers. State-level accountability policy affects teachers’ decisions about whether to
remain in or leave their schools or teaching (Clotfelter et al. 2004; Boyd et al. 2008; Feng, Figlio,
and Sass 2010), and NCLB altered teachers’ perceptions of their job security (Reback et al.
2014) and affected principals’ decisions about whether to remain in or leave their schools (Li
2012). NCLB also implemented subgroup-specific accountability using cutoff-based rules that
divided otherwise similar schools into those that were accountable for their racial/ethnic
subgroups and those that were not; prior studies demonstrate that setting cutoffs can affect
individuals whose scores fall either just above or, in some cases, just below those cutoffs (Papay,
Murnane, and Willett 2010; Domina, Penner, and Penner 2016). The implementation of NCLB’s
subgroup-specific accountability might thus have shaped teachers’ decisions to remain in or
leave their schools or teaching, as well as administrators’ decisions about which teachers to
retain, particularly in schools that fell near these cutoffs.
This study investigates whether the initial implementation of NCLB’s subgroup-specific
accountability affected the likelihood that teachers left their schools or teaching. Using data on
elementary school teachers in North Carolina, this study finds that when first implemented,
subgroup-specific accountability that targeted the black or white student subgroups had no
overall effects on teacher turnover or attrition. Accountability for the black student subgroup,
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however, caused black teachers in schools that were held accountable for the performance of the
black subgroup to leave teaching at significantly lower rates than black teachers that taught in
schools not accountable for the black subgroup’s performance. It is unclear, however, whether
this discontinuity is driven by a decrease in black teacher attrition in schools just above the cutoff
or an increase in attrition of black teachers in schools just below. Further analysis suggests that
the policy caused changes in the teaching assignments of black teachers, particularly the
percentages of black students they were assigned. These results suggest that the implementation
of subgroup-specific accountability altered the composition of the teacher labor force in
unintended ways.
<A>2. Background
<B>Subgroup-Specific Accountability
A central goal of NCLB was to close racial/ethnic achievement gaps (No Child Left
Behind Act 2001); to do so, the law required that the students in each racial/ethnic subgroup in
each school make yearly gains in achievement, or the entire school would be labeled as failing.
NCLB did not hold all schools accountable for the performance of their subgroups, however; to
address concerns about the reliability of AYP determinations, as well as about student privacy,
NCLB stipulated that a subgroup’s performance would not “count” towards AYP determinations
for schools with very small numbers of students in that subgroup. NCLB required states to set a
“minimum subgroup size,” which was the minimum number of students in a subgroup that were
required for that subgroup to count in a school’s AYP determination (Davidson et al. 2015).
Schools whose numbers of students in a subgroup were equal to or greater than their state’s
minimum subgroup size were held accountable for that subgroup’s performance, while schools
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whose numbers of students in a subgroup fell below that cutoff were not held accountable for
that subgroup’s scores. In the first year of NCLB, these minimum subgroup sizes ranged from a
low of 10 to as high as 50 (Pierce 2003; Davidson et al. 2015). The state examined in this study,
North Carolina, set its minimum subgroup size at 40 students, and did not allow this number to
vary with the size of the school (Pierce 2003; Fulton 2006).
One consequence of these minimum subgroup size rules was that the difference of a
single student in a subgroup could affect whether that subgroup’s test scores counted in
determining a school’s AYP. In North Carolina, for example, the black student subgroup’s
performance did not count in AYP determinations for schools with 39 black students, but
counted for schools with 40 black students. NCLB thus required states to draw arbitrary lines
that divided otherwise similar schools, holding schools on one side of the line accountable for the
performance of a subgroup while leaving schools on the other side unaccountable. This study
investigates whether implementing such a policy caused teachers that worked in schools near
these cutoffs to leave their schools or teaching.
North Carolina is an ideal place to examine the effects of the initial implementation of
subgroup-specific accountability, since prior to NCLB, North Carolina had a strong state-level
accountability system, but no system of subgroup-specific accountability (North Carolina
Department of Public Instruction 2003; Lauen and Gaddis 2012). The effects of subgroup-
specific accountability in NCLB’s first year were therefore undiluted by a similar state-level
policy. Since North Carolina’s state-level accountability system remained in effect when NCLB
was implemented in 2002-03, the counterfactual to subgroup-specific accountability in this study
is a strong state-level accountability system that lacked a subgroup-specific component. The
rewards and sanctions faced by North Carolina schools did not change in NCLB’s first year:
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under North Carolina’s state-level accountability system, staff at high-performing schools
received monetary awards, while low-performing schools were required to work with state
assistance teams and notify parents of their low performance (North Carolina Department of
Public Instruction 2003). These rewards and sanctions remained in place in 2002-03, but schools
additionally reported their overall AYP status in mandatory reports to parents. NCLB sanctioned
Title I schools if they did not make AYP, but only after schools failed to do so for two
consecutive years (North Carolina Department of Public Instruction 2003).
<B>Holding Schools Accountable Versus Low Performance
Most prior studies of the effects of NCLB’s subgroup-specific accountability have
explored the effects of low subgroup performance, or the threat of such low performance, on
students and teachers (Lauen and Gaddis 2012; Reardon et al. 2013; Reback et al. 2014). Lauen
and Gaddis (2012), the only previous study to explore the effects of subgroup-specific
accountability in North Carolina, found that accountability pressure for the low-income, black,
and Hispanic subgroups increased the subsequent achievement of those students. The
“treatment” in the current study, however, differs from this prior work. Instead of investigating
the effects of pressure generated by the implementation of subgroup-specific accountability, this
study explores the effects of simply being held accountable for subgroups during NCLB’s first
year. More precisely, the treatment in this study can be thought of as a school being held
accountable for a subgroup while otherwise similar schools were not. Sims (2013) similarly
examined the impacts of being held accountable for an additional subgroup on both the
probability of schools’ failing to make AYP and their subsequent student achievement. He found
that schools that were held accountable for an additional subgroup were more likely to fail to
make AYP, and that such failure led to decreased future achievement for both the school overall
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as well as the subgroup in question (Sims 2013).
Subgroup-specific accountability could have affected different groups of teachers in
different ways. Since subgroup-specific accountability was a policy that focused explicitly on
student race, it is particularly plausible that the policy had different effects on teachers of various
races. Prior research shows, for example, that black and white teachers respond differently to an
influx of black students into their schools (Jackson 2009). Research also suggests that an
organization’s orientation towards diversity is a key predictor of workers’ commitment to that
organization, particularly for minority workers (Foley, Kidder, and Powell 2002; Chrobot-Mason
2003), and minority workers’ perceptions of their workplaces’ “diversity climates” are key
predictors of their turnover (Griffeth and Hom 2001). The policy could also have impacted
teachers directly, by affecting teachers’ decisions about whether or not to remain in their schools
or teaching, or indirectly, by altering administrators’ decisions about teachers’ class assignments,
outside-of-classroom responsibilities, and which teachers to remove or keep.
There are four main ways that being held accountable for a subgroup might affect teacher
turnover or attrition. One is by altering the pressure that teachers felt to improve their students’
achievement. Since schools that were accountable for more subgroups were more likely to fail to
make AYP (Kane and Staiger 2002; Sims 2013), schools whose numbers of students in a
subgroup were just above the minimum subgroup size cutoff might have felt more accountability
pressure than teachers in schools just below the cutoff. Accountability pressure has been shown
to decrease teachers’ perceptions of their job security (Reback et al. 2014; Crocco and Costigan
2007), and the decreased job security for teachers in above-cutoff schools could have driven
these teachers from their schools or even from teaching. Changes in such pressure could also
have altered administrators’ decisions about classroom assignments or about which teachers to
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keep or remove. If black teachers were more effective teachers of black students, for example,
administrators of schools that were newly accountable for the black subgroup could have
reassigned black students to those teachers in response to the increased pressure associated with
those students’ performance.
A second way that subgroup-specific accountability might have affected teachers is by
altering the allocation of resources either within or between schools. Prior evidence suggests that
increased resources often accompany accountability pressure, and that these resources can
potentially entice teachers to stay in their schools (Feng et al. 2010). Subgroup-specific
accountability could have led to increased resources—including materials, planning time, and
other supports—being devoted to schools just above the cutoff as compared to those just below;
these additional resources could have made teaching more appealing and enticed teachers to stay
in their schools or in teaching. Within schools, administrators may have made particular efforts
to direct resources to teachers that taught the students for which schools were newly accountable,
making these teachers particularly likely to remain. Students could also have been assigned to
teachers differently after the policy took effect. Again, this change could have affected teachers
of different races differently. If black teachers were more likely to teach black students, for
example, and increased resources were directed to black students (and their teachers) in schools
that were newly accountable for the black subgroup, these resources could have been particularly
beneficial to black teachers.
Third, subgroup-specific accountability could have affected teachers’ motivation to
remain in their schools or teaching. Again, these effects could have been different for teachers of
different races. For example, research suggests that some black teachers enter teaching because
of a “calling” prompted by their sense of duty to improve educational outcomes for black
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students (Casey 1993; Irvine 2002; Dixson and Dingus 2008). In schools above the subgroup
accountability cutoff, black students’ performance “counted” towards AYP, reinforcing the
message that black students’ achievement was important, which may have been particularly
congruent with some black teachers’ motivations for entering and remaining in teaching. In
below-cutoff schools, however, black students’ performance did not “count,” a message which
could have conflicted with these teachers’ motivation to teach, perhaps driving them from their
schools or even from teaching.
Finally, subgroup-specific accountability could have impacted teachers by causing school
leaders to strategically manipulate their schools’ numbers of students in various subgroups. Prior
work finds that schools indeed manipulate their numbers of students in subgroups in order to
avoid NCLB accountability for those subgroups (Jennings and Crosta 2011). This finding
corroborates findings from other studies suggesting that some schools use suspensions and
classification into special education to remove potentially low-performing students from the
testing pool (Cullen and Reback 2006; Figlio 2006; Figlio and Getzler 2006). Teachers could
have directly observed this manipulation or heard of it second-hand, and knowledge of this
manipulation could have affected their motivation to remain in their schools or even teaching.
Such manipulation could also have been correlated with other practices that some administrators
engaged in in response to NCLB that made schools particularly bad places to work.
The impacts of subgroup-specific accountability on teachers also may not have been
confined to the schools above the cutoffs; recent research in education suggests that cutoffs that
divide otherwise similar individuals into groups can affect behavior for those that fall just short
of those cutoffs, as well. Domina, Penner, and Penner (2016), for example, examined the effects
of a policy that gave color-coded identification cards to high school students based on their test
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scores; these cards were publicly displayed and conferred a number of advantages to students.
The authors found that students whose scores fell just short of the cutoff for a more prestigious
ID card had lower test scores and grades the following year (Domina, Penner, and Penner 2016).
Papay, Murnane, and Willett (2010) similarly found that low-income urban high school students
that barely failed a tenth-grade math exit exam were significantly more likely to drop out of
school the following year than similar students who just passed the exam. In both cases, falling
just short of the cutoff appeared to significantly affect behavior. Subgroup-specific
accountability could have similarly affected the turnover or attrition of teachers in schools that
fell just short of the cutoffs, perhaps by affecting teachers’ motivation, as discussed above.
Although the four explanations outlined in this section have some theoretical and
empirical support, they are largely speculative. However, they each lead to some testable
predictions. If changes in pressure explained any effects of subgroup-specific accountability on
teachers, we would expect teachers to leave their schools or teaching at higher rates from schools
that faced subgroup-specific accountability, compared to those that did not. We also might
observe that these effects were greatest in the schools where those subgroups were most likely to
fail. If resource allocation were most important, we would expect to see lower turnover and
attrition from schools that faced accountability for their subgroups. We might also expect to see
the teachers that worked most often with the focal students leaving their schools or teaching at
particularly low rates. If motivation were a main means by which subgroup-specific
accountability affected teachers, we might expect to see minority teachers remaining in their
schools or teaching at higher rates when their same-race subgroup “counted” in their schools, or
perhaps leaving their schools or teaching when they fell just short of those cutoffs. If strategic
manipulation took place, we might see particular effects for same-race teachers in schools that
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fell just short of the subgroup accountability cutoff. After describing the data and methods, this
study examines the overall effects of subgroup-specific accountability on teachers, then turns to
testing these potential explanations.
<A>3. Methods
<B>Data and Sample
Data for this study were taken from administrative data on North Carolina students,
teachers, and schools from the school years 1999-2000 through 2003-04. This five-year period
spanned the initial implementation of NCLB in 2002-03, allowing a comparison of teacher
outcomes in schools whose numbers of students in their subgroups fell just above or just below
the state’s minimum subgroup size cutoff in the periods before and after the law took effect.
These data included information on every public school teacher in the state, including
information on teachers’ race/ethnicity, education, and the racial/ethnic composition and
achievement of their students. For the purposes of these analyses, the sample was limited to
elementary school teachers, who had direct responsibility for specific students and therefore
might be expected to respond particularly strongly to subgroup-specific accountability.1 The
sample was also limited to black and white teachers, as these teachers comprised the vast
majority of North Carolina elementary school teachers during the study period (14% and 84%,
respectively, in 2001-02), and these analyses sought to explore the effects of accountability for
the same-race subgroup on these teachers.
Using this administrative data, measures of one- and two-year turnover and attrition were
constructed for both the pre- and post-NCLB periods. In the pre-NCLB period, each public
1 The sample was not limited to self-contained teachers, but instead included teachers of art, music, and other non-self-contained classes. 84% of teachers in the sample, however, taught self-contained classes.
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elementary school teacher in North Carolina in 1999-2000 was searched for in the state data
from either 2000-01 or 2001-02 (depending on the particular outcome) to determine whether that
teacher (a) still taught in the same North Carolina public school, (b) taught in a different North
Carolina public school, or (c) had left public school teaching in North Carolina. Similar measures
were constructed for the post-NCLB period, beginning with all North Carolina teachers in 2001-
02 (the year before NCLB went into effect), and examining outcomes for these teachers in either
2002-03 or 2003-04.
Both one- and two-year outcomes were examined because the implementation of
subgroup-specific accountability took place over two years, and there was ambiguity about when
North Carolina schools and districts became aware of the state minimum subgroup size of 40
students. NCLB was signed into law in January 2002, but North Carolina’s minimum subgroup
size was not approved until April 2003 (Hickok 2003). Within this large window of time, it is
unclear exactly when North Carolina schools and districts became aware of the state minimum
subgroup size of 40 students. It is also unclear when teachers learned where their schools’
subgroups fell in relation to that cutoff. NCLB based its subgroup-specific accountability on the
number of tested students, but required students to have been enrolled in a school for nearly the
entire school year to count as a member of a subgroup.2 Preliminary test results were released
beginning in June of 2003, and press coverage in North Carolina at that time suggested that
NCLB had had positive impacts on student achievement, particularly for minority students
(North Carolina Department of Public Instruction 2003; Silberman 2003). Teachers therefore
could have been aware of where their schools’ subgroups fell in relation to the cutoff by this
2 NCLB allowed each state to define “continuous enrollment” (Davidson et al. 2015), and North Carolina required students to be continuously enrolled in their schools for 140 days at the time of spring testing (Lauen and Gaddis 2012). In the remainder of this study, references to the numbers of students in subgroups refer to the number of such continuously enrolled and tested students.
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time, if not earlier. Given the uncertainty about the timeline of the policy implementation, it is
also possible that school administrators knew of the cutoff of 40 earlier than their teachers, and
were able to respond to that cutoff, perhaps by engaging in strategic manipulation, as described
above. Because of the ambiguity in the timeline of the policy’s implementation, as well as when
exactly teachers and administrators knew where they fell in relation to the minimum subgroup
size cutoff, analyses for this study examined both one- and two-year outcomes. Two-year
attrition was the preferred outcome, however, since it captured attrition from the year before
NCLB through the full initial implementation of the policy.
Data on the implementation of subgroup-specific accountability were taken from the
Barnard/Columbia NCLB database, a state-by-state compendium of information on states’
implementation of NCLB (Reback et al. 2011). These data, which were compiled from publicly
available records and personal correspondence with state officials, provided the number of
“continuously enrolled” and tested students by subgroup in each North Carolina school in the
first two years of NCLB (2002-03 and 2003-04), and were available for 94% of the elementary
schools in North Carolina during the study period.
Along with the numbers of tested students in each subgroup in each school, the
Barnard/Columbia NCLB data also contained the AYP outcomes (pass or fail) for each subgroup
in each school in both reading and math in 2002-03 and 2003-04, the first two years of NCLB. If
a school had an AYP outcome listed for a subgroup in both subjects, that school was deemed to
have been held accountable for that subgroup that year; any school without an AYP outcome for
a subgroup in both subjects was deemed to have not been held accountable for that subgroup.
North Carolina elementary schools were held accountable for the black and white subgroups far
more often for than any other racial ethnic groups: in the first year of NCLB, 64% of schools
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were held accountable for the black subgroup, and 82% of schools for the white subgroup. (In
contrast, only 8% of schools were held accountable for the Hispanic subgroup, and 1% of
schools for the Asian subgroup.) Because large numbers of schools were held accountable for the
black and white subgroups, and because nearly all elementary school teachers in North Carolina
at the time of NCLB’s initial implementation were either black or white, analyses for this study
focused on the effects of being held accountable for these two subgroups.
In the first year of NCLB, North Carolina perfectly assigned schools to treatment or non-
treatment status based on the numbers of students in their black or white subgroups, holding
every school with 40 or more black or white students accountable for that subgroup, and not
holding any schools accountable for the black or white subgroup when the number of such
students was below 40. 95% of schools that were held accountable for the black or white
subgroups in the first year of NCLB were also held accountable for that subgroup in the law’s
second year, making it impossible to examine separate effects of subgroup-specific
accountability in NCLB’s first two years.
Table 1 presents descriptive statistics on the sample of elementary schools in North
Carolina in 2001-02, the year before NCLB took effect. Column A shows descriptive statistics
for all North Carolina elementary schools; Column B for North Carolina elementary schools
whose numbers of black students fell close to the state minimum subgroup size (between 35 and
44 tested black students) during the first year of NCLB; and Column C for elementary schools
whose numbers of white students were close to the state minimum subgroup size (between 35
and 44 tested white students). Schools whose numbers of black students were close to 40 were
generally more advantaged than other schools in the state. These schools had smaller percentages
of low-income students and higher state-level accountability performance than other schools.
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These schools also had, on average, greater percentages of white students and smaller
percentages of black students than other North Carolina schools, and were more likely to be
located in rural areas and suburbs. Schools near the cutoff for the number of tested white
students, in contrast, were generally less advantaged than other schools in the state.
Table 2 shows information on whether or not North Carolina elementary schools were
held accountable for various subgroups during the first year of NCLB. In order to give an overall
sense of the implementation of subgroup-specific accountability during NCLB’s first year, this
table is not limited to the black or white subgroups. In NCLB’s first year, there was a great deal
of overlap in accountability for various subgroups. For example, 92% of schools near the cutoff
for the number of black students were held accountable for the white subgroup, while 86% of
schools near the cutoff for the number of white students were held accountable for the
performance of the black subgroup. Because of these overlaps in accountability for various
subgroups, some analyses controlled for whether schools were accountable for subgroups other
than the focal subgroup.
Some analyses examined whether the effects of subgroup-specific accountability differed
depending on the level of pressure schools faced for their subgroups. For these analyses, schools
were divided into groups based on the predicted probability their black or white subgroups would
make AYP, and indicators for each of these groups were interacted with each variable included
in the analyses.3 Other analyses explored whether the policy’s effects differed depending on the
percentages of black or white students in teachers’ classes. To accomplish this, the percentage of
3 For these analyses, the predicted probability of a subgroup making AYP in reading, and (separately) for making AYP in math, was computed by estimating school-by-subgroup logistic regression models where the dependent variable was an indicator for whether the black or white subgroup passed its accountability target in that subject during the first year of NCLB, and the independent variable was the prior year’s school-average reading or math test score for that subgroup. Results reported in the following section were robust to using the likelihood of making AYP in either subject.
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teachers’ students that were black or white was interacted with each variable; in another analysis,
each variable was interacted with indicators for whether teachers’ percentages of black or white
students were more than a standard deviation above the mean for the entire sample, within a
standard deviation of the mean, or more than a standard deviation below the mean.
Table 3 presents descriptive statistics on the sample of North Carolina elementary
teachers used in this study. Teachers in schools with close to 40 tested black students were more
likely to be white than teachers in schools with close to 40 tested white students. They were also
more likely to have higher scores on licensure exams, standard teaching certification, and
National Board Certification. Teachers in schools with close to 40 tested white students were
also more likely to leave their schools or teaching within one or two years.
<B>Research Design
This study used a regression discontinuity (RD) design to determine the effects of
subgroup-specific accountability on teachers. The identifying assumption of the analysis was that
schools with 39 tested students in a subgroup were identical to schools with 40 tested students,
except for the fact that NCLB held schools with 40 students in the subgroup accountable for that
subgroup’s performance. Any discontinuity in teacher turnover or attrition at the cutoff of 40
tested black or white students, therefore, was directly attributable to the policy.
Since the likelihood of receiving the treatment jumped from zero to one at the cutoff, this
study used a “sharp” RD design (Lee and Lemieux 2010; Bloom 2012). Linear probability
models were estimated for ease of interpretation, with standard errors clustered at the school
level to reflect teacher grouping in schools and the likely correlation of teacher outcomes within
schools. The bandwidth within which the analyses were conducted varied between 10, 20, and 30
tested students around the cutoff. Except for in a few cases noted below, the assignment
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variable—the number of tested students in the black or white subgroups—was always from the
first year of NCLB (2002-03).4
The model for the RD analyses in the post-NCLB period was as follows:
𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑋𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 + 𝛽4𝑋𝑗𝑡−1
3 + 𝛽5𝑋𝑗𝑡−1𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝛽6𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 +
𝛽7𝑋𝑗𝑡−13 𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗𝑡 (1)
where the outcome variable Yijt was an indicator for whether teacher i in school j left the base
year school, or public school teaching in North Carolina, in year t (2003-04); Zjt-1 was an
indicator for whether the number of tested black or white students in school j met or exceeded
North Carolina’s minimum subgroup size of 40 in year t-1, the first year of NCLB (2002-03); Xjt-
1 was the assignment variable, the number of tested black or white students in school j in year t-
1; and Xjt-12 and Xjt-1
3 were quadratic and cubic powers of the assignment variable. Xjt-1Zjt-1, Xjt-
12Zjt-1, and Xjt-1
3Zjt-1 were interactions between Xjt-1, Xjt-12, and Xjt-1
3 and the treatment dummy Zjt-
1. Values of Xjt-1 and its higher-order polynomials were centered at the cutoff of 40, which made
the intercept of the equation (β0) the estimate of teacher turnover or attrition at the cutoff in the
absence of subgroup-specific accountability. β1 was the treatment effect, and estimated the effect
of subgroup-specific accountability for the black or white subgroup on teacher turnover or
attrition in schools with exactly 40 tested students in that subgroup in 2002-03, the first year of
NCLB.5 Pre-NCLB analyses used 2001-02 as the base year.
Since the data spanned the pre- and post-NCLB periods, some analyses pooled pre- and
post-NCLB data and estimated a difference-in-differences RD model. This model not only
4 Some analyses tested whether accountability for subgroups in the second year of NCLB (2003-04) caused changes in teacher turnover and attrition. These analyses are discussed below. 5 For the pre-NCLB analyses, schools’ numbers of tested black or white students from 2002-03 were used as the assignment variable; these analyses were therefore limited to those pre-NCLB schools for which such information was available. 77 schools (7% of all North Carolina elementary schools) and 1,594 teachers (5% of elementary teachers) were lost from the pre-NCLB analyses because of the lack of NCLB-related data on their schools.
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estimated the discontinuity in teacher turnover or attrition at the cutoff in both the pre- and post-
NCLB periods, but also estimated the difference in those discontinuities. This model was
estimated as follows:
𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽3𝑍𝑗𝑡−1𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽4𝑋𝑗−1 + 𝛽5𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 + 𝛽6𝑋𝑗𝑡−1
3 + 𝛽7𝑋𝑗𝑡−1𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 +
𝛽8𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 𝑍𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝛽9𝑋𝑗𝑡−1
3 𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝛽10𝑋𝑗𝑡−1𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽11𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽12𝑋𝑗𝑡−1
3 𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽13𝑋𝑗𝑡−1𝑍𝑗𝑡−1𝑇𝑡 +
𝛽14𝑋𝑗𝑡−12 𝑍𝑗𝑡−1𝑇𝑡 + 𝛽15𝑋𝑗𝑡−1
3 𝑍𝑗𝑡−1𝑇𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗𝑡 (2)
where the difference between this equation and equation (1) was the addition of Tt, a dummy
variable that indicated whether an observation was from the post-NCLB period, and the
interaction of this variable with each variable in equation (1) to differentiate their effects in the
pre- and post-NCLB periods. The coefficient of interest was now β3, which estimated the
difference in the discontinuities in teacher turnover or attrition between the pre- and post-NCLB
periods at the cutoff of 40 tested black or white students. The assignment variable, Xjt-1, was still
measured in the first year of NCLB (2002-03).
In addition to the parametric analyses discussed above, nonparametric RD models were
also estimated, with bandwidths selected using the bandwidth optimization procedure of Imbens
and Kalyanaraman (2012). Applying this procedure, however, often produced optimal
bandwidths that were very small—usually between two and three, and sometimes less than two.
Nonparametric analyses were therefore conducted using bandwidths of two, three, and four
tested students around the cutoff, which are each very close to these optimal bandwidths, using a
triangle kernel to weigh observations within each bandwidth (McCrary 2008).
<C>Internal validity of research design.
Since the cutoff of 40 tested students was unique to NCLB, estimates of the policy’s
effects were not confounded with the effects of other policies. The institutional and statistical
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evidence also suggested that schools did not manipulate their numbers of tested black or white
students in NCLB’s first year, nor did teachers sort themselves to schools on either side of the
cutoff in the period before the policy took effect.
<D>Institutional evidence against manipulation of the assignment variable.
Manipulation of schools’ numbers of tested students was unlikely to be substantial for
several reasons. One was that schools lacked precise control over their student enrollments. In
most public schools, additional students can enroll or withdraw at any time, giving schools only
imprecise control over the student enrollments of various subgroups. Schools could have
manipulated their numbers of tested students in the black or white subgroups by reclassifying
student race; student race/ethnicity, however, is recorded when students enroll in a particular
North Carolina school district, and this information remains in the district’s computer system
when students transfer public schools within districts. The only substantial opportunity to
reclassify student race, therefore, was when students were just entering a new district, and the
numbers of such students in any given year were unlikely to be great.
Another way that the number of tested students in subgroups could have been
manipulated was through the continuous enrollment provision of NCLB. Schools could have
manipulated their numbers of tested students in the black or white subgroups by enrolling
students just after the cutoff date for continuous enrollment, a practice which research suggests
some schools indeed attempt (Jennings and Crosta 2011). Such manipulation, however, could
only have affected students that were newly enrolling in a school near the cutoff date for
continuous enrollment, and the numbers of such students were again unlikely to have been great.
Schools could also have classified black or white students into special education, or used
suspensions, to push their numbers of tested students in these subgroups below the cutoffs. Prior
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research suggests that schools indeed use suspensions and classification into special education to
remove potentially low-performing students from the testing pool (Cullen and Reback 2006;
Figlio 2006; Figlio and Getzler 2006). NCLB, however, required that 95% of the continuously
enrolled students in each subgroup be tested, or the entire school would fail to make AYP. Thus,
the only schools that could have excluded enough students from testing to push themselves
below the minimum subgroup size cutoff were those whose true numbers of continuously
enrolled students were just above the cutoff. In North Carolina, only schools with 40 or 41
continuously-enrolled students in a subgroup could have excluded enough students from test-
taking to push that subgroup’s numbers of tested students below 40 and still meet the 95%
participation requirement. Similarly, only schools with 38 or 39 tested students in a subgroup
could actually have had 40 or more continuously-enrolled students in that subgroup. This form of
manipulation was therefore only plausible in a very small number of schools. The following
sections explore whether the results presented are robust to excluding schools where such
manipulation was possible.
<D>Statistical evidence against manipulation of the assignment variable.
A common test for manipulation of the assignment variable in RD is to look for a
discontinuity in the density of cases at the cutoff (Lee and Lemieux 2010; Bloom 2012). Graphs
of the results from such a test are presented in Figure 1, using data from 2002-03. Results
showed no statistically significant discontinuities in the density of schools at the cutoff for either
the number of tested black students (p=0.15) or white students (p=0.32). For the number of
tested black students, the figure shows a greater density of schools just above the cutoff than just
below, contrary to what might be expected had manipulation indeed occurred.
Another test for manipulation is to examine the smoothness of pretreatment covariates
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across the cutoff (Lee and Lemieux 2010; Bloom 2012). Figure 2 shows the smoothness of
several pretreatment covariates across the cutoff for the number of tested black students. At the
school level (Panel A), these included school size, the proportion of students qualifying for free
or reduced price school lunch, the proportion of schools located in an urban area, and the
proportion of schools rated “exemplary” under North Carolina’s state-level accountability
system. At the teacher level (Panel B), these included whether a teacher was National-Board-
certified, a high-scorer on teacher licensure exams, entering his/her first year in education, or
attended a less competitive college. Each of these covariates was from 2001-02, the year before
NCLB went into effect, while the x-variable (the number of tested black students) was from
2002-03, the first year of NCLB. All analyses were conducted at the school level. The graphs
each include a scatterplot, a local linear (nonparametric) regression line, and cubic, quadratic,
and linear fits, each fitted separately on both sides of the cutoff. Results for the white subgroup
were similar and are not presented here.
Panel A shows that there were no discontinuities in any pretreatment school covariates at
the cutoff for the number of tested black students. Panel B similarly shows no discontinuities in
teacher characteristics at the cutoff of 40 tested black students in the pretreatment year, 2001-02.
The findings of Panels A and B were confirmed in regressions that are not presented here, which
showed no pattern of significant discontinuities in any pretreatment covariates at any of the
bandwidths tested.6
<C>Inclusion of covariates.
Since prior research suggests that teacher turnover and attrition are associated with the
percentage of minority students in a school (Borman and Dowling 2008), one might expect an
6 Results of these analyses are available upon request.
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increase in teacher turnover and attrition as the numbers of tested black students in schools
increases. This was indeed the case, even in a relatively small window around the cutoff.
Limiting the sample to teachers in the pre-NCLB period in schools that would later be within a
30 student bandwidth of the cutoff, an increase of one tested black student was associated with
an increased probability of leaving teaching of a tenth of a percentage point (p=0.02). Also
consistent with prior research (see Jackson 2009), this was true for white, but not black teachers.
The number of tested white students was not associated with the likelihood of attrition for either
black or white teachers.
The addition of school covariates, however, accounted for this trend. After including the
full set of school covariates in Table 1, schools’ numbers of tested black students was no longer a
statistically significant predictor of teacher attrition. This finding provided further reassurance
that there were not large underlying differences in teacher attrition across the cutoff in the period
before NCLB took effect, and those differences that were present could be accounted for by the
inclusion of school-level covariates. The following section, therefore, reports results of models
that both include and exclude covariates, to assess whether the inclusion of these school and
teacher characteristics had significant effects on the results.
<A>4. Results
Subgroup-specific accountability focused on the black or white student subgroups had no
overall effects on teacher turnover or attrition. This was true regardless of the predicted
probability that the black subgroup would make AYP, or the percentage of teachers’ students
that were black or white. At some bandwidths around the cutoff for the number of tested black
students, there was a significant negative discontinuity in the pre-NCLB period in teacher
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turnover among teachers that taught the highest percentages of black students. Since there were
relatively few teachers that taught high percentages of black students in schools near the cutoff
for the black subgroup, however, this finding was likely to have been driven by random variation
in turnover among these teachers.7
Separate analyses for black and white teachers, however, found that accountability for the
black subgroup in the first year of NCLB had significant effects on the likelihood that black
teachers left public school teaching in North Carolina. Table 4 shows RD estimates of the effects
of accountability for the black subgroup on two-year teacher attrition, separating teachers into
black teachers (top panel) and white teachers (bottom panel). The table contains estimates of the
discontinuity in teacher attrition at the cutoff in the pre- and post-NCLB periods, as well as
estimates of the difference in these discontinuities. The columns of the table correspond to
various methods of analysis (nonparametric or parametric), bandwidths around the cutoff within
which the analysis was conducted (2, 3, 4, 10, 20, or 30 tested students), and functional forms
used to model the outcome-assignment variable relationship (cubic, quadratic, or linear). The
“mean attrition” in the leftmost column is the mean attrition in either the pre- or post-NCLB
period, depending on the row, and is provided to give a sense of the magnitude of the
discontinuities estimated across that row of the table.
Subgroup-specific accountability focused on the black subgroup caused a significant,
negative discontinuity in black teacher attrition at the cutoff of 40 tested black students. The
estimates in the top panel of Table 4 show that this discontinuity in teacher attrition was
consistent in magnitude and direction across both nonparametric and parametric analyses and a
variety of functional forms and bandwidths. (The exception is the linear model, whose estimates
7 Results of these analyses are available upon request.
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are smaller in magnitude and only marginally statistically significant; this model, however,
generally provides a poor fit to the data.) The magnitude of these estimates suggests that
subgroup-specific accountability for the black subgroup had a large negative effect on the
likelihood that black teachers left teaching. Using a cubic functional form and a bandwidth of 20,
for example, there is a negative discontinuity of 0.39 in black teacher attrition at the cutoff,
representing a 68% drop in teacher attrition when compared to 0.57, the model’s estimate of
black teacher attrition at the cutoff in the absence of subgroup-specific accountability. This
negative discontinuity could be the result of a decrease in black teacher attrition in above-cutoff
schools, an increase in attrition in below-cutoff schools, or some combination of the two.
This discontinuity in black teacher attrition at the cutoff did not exist before NCLB took
effect, as can be seen in the second row of the top panel of Table 4. This suggests that the post-
NCLB discontinuity in black teacher attrition was not simply an artifact of an underlying
difference between schools on either side of the cutoff that predated the policy, but that this
discontinuity arose when NCLB took effect. Even after differencing out this small and
statistically-insignificant pre-NCLB discontinuity in black teacher attrition, the results of the
difference-in-differences RD analyses, presented in the third row of the top panel of Table 4,
show that the discontinuity in teacher attrition caused by accountability for the black subgroup
remained negative and was generally statistically significant, although at some bandwidths only
marginally so. These findings again suggest that subgroup-specific accountability for the black
subgroup significantly affected the attrition of black teachers from North Carolina public schools
in the period immediately after NCLB took effect. The bottom panel of Table 4 shows that
accountability for the black subgroup did not affect the likelihood that white teachers left
teaching, and analyses not presented here found that accountability for the white subgroup had
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no effects on either black or white teachers.
Figure 3 presents a graphical version of these analyses, showing black teacher attrition in
the pre-NCLB period (top panel) and post-NCLB period (bottom panel), with the number of
tested black students in teachers’ schools in 2002-03 on the x-axis. The top panel of the figure
demonstrates that before NCLB went into effect there was no discontinuity in black teacher
attrition in schools that would later have 40 tested black students. The bottom panel of the figure,
however, shows a large, negative discontinuity in black teacher attrition at the cutoff in the post-
NCLB period.
The post-NCLB discontinuity in black teacher attrition appears to be driven, at least in
part, by an increase in black teacher attrition in schools with just fewer than 40 tested black
students. To further explore the changes in black teacher attrition on both sides of the cutoff,
Figure 4 shows the difference in average black teacher attrition between the pre- and post-NCLB
periods, by the number of tested black students in the school in the first year of NCLB. For the
purposes of this figure, teacher attrition is calculated at the school level and then averaged for all
schools with each number of tested black students. The figure shows that, relative to the pre-
NCLB period, black teacher attrition increased in the post-NCLB period in schools whose
numbers of tested black students fell just below the minimum subgroup size cutoff. At the same
time, the figure also shows that black teacher attrition decreased slightly, compared to the pre-
NCLB period, in schools just above this cutoff, as shown by the slight dip below zero just to the
right of the cutoff in the graph. Given the research design, it is not possible to determine whether
changes on one side of the cutoff or the other (or both) led to the discontinuity observed here.
To determine how much of this discontinuity in two-year attrition occurred during the
first year of the policy (between 2001-02 and 2002-03) and how much occurred in the second
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year (between 2002-03 and 2003-04), similar analyses were conducted using one-year attrition as
the outcome, as well as for an additional year after the policy took effect (between 2003-04 and
2004-05), and three years prior to NCLB. Results of these analyses are presented in Table 5 and
Figure 5, and show no discontinuity at the cutoff throughout the pre-NCLB period. Between the
year that NCLB was signed into law and the first year the policy took effect (i.e. between 2001-
02 and 2002-03), there was a large, negative discontinuity at the cutoff in the likelihood that
black teachers left teaching, although this discontinuity could not be statistically distinguished
from zero. This discontinuity persisted, and in most specifications grew in magnitude, between
the first year that subgroup-specific accountability was implemented in schools (2002-03) and
the second year of the policy (2003-04), although it could generally not be statistically
distinguished from zero, before shrinking again the following year.8
Results for black teacher turnover (i.e. leaving the school, as opposed to leaving teaching)
show a similar pattern as those for black teacher attrition: after NCLB took effect there was a
large negative discontinuity in the likelihood that black teachers left their schools at the cutoff of
40 tested black students. Analyses limited to black teachers that remained in public school
teaching in North Carolina the following year, however, found no discontinuity in black teacher
turnover at the cutoff, suggesting that the turnover findings were driven by black teachers that
left teaching altogether.
Since schools received their AYP results in the summer of 2003 (North Carolina
Department of Public Instruction 2003; Silberman 2003), it was also possible that the black
subgroup’s contribution to the AYP status of the school may have impacted black teacher
8 Other analyses examined whether accountability for the black student subgroup in 2003-04—the second year of NCLB—affected black teacher turnover or attrition between 2001-02 and 2004-05, and between 2002-03 and 2004-05. In neither case did accountability in the second year of the policy have a significant effect on outcomes for black teachers.
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attrition. To examine this possibility, a series of difference-in-differences analyses comparing the
attrition of black and white teachers in the pre- and post-NCLB periods were conducted. These
analyses were conducted separately for schools on each side of the cutoff, and for schools that
made or did not make AYP, both overall and for their black subgroups. These analyses found no
significant differences in black teacher attrition, except in schools that were held accountable for
their black subgroups and failed to make overall AYP. In those schools, black teacher attrition
increased in the post-NCLB period compared to white teachers, but only in schools where the
black subgroup did not contribute to the overall AYP failure (see Table 6). The results of these
difference-in-differences analyses are suggestive, and should not be interpreted causally, but
suggest that black students’ performance—at least in schools that failed to make overall AYP—
could have played a role in black teacher attrition.
<B>Robustness Checks
<C>Excluding schools just below the cutoff.
The effects on black teachers of subgroup-specific accountability for the black subgroup
appeared to be driven by teachers in schools with 38 or 39 tested black students. Since prior
research has found effects of falling just short of cutoffs (Papay, Murnane, and Willett 2010;
Domina, Penner, and Penner 2016), this could represent the effect on black teachers of their
schools falling just short of the cutoff for accountability for the black subgroup. However, as
noted earlier, these schools are also those that could have potentially manipulated their numbers
of tested black students to push themselves just below the cutoff. To test the robustness of the
findings to the exclusion of teachers in these schools, these teachers were excluded from some
analyses to determine their effects on the results. When teachers in schools with 39 tested black
students were excluded, and the discontinuity in teacher attrition between black teachers in
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schools with 38 tested black students and black teachers in schools with 40 tested black students
was estimated, the estimates of the discontinuity decreased in magnitude and were no longer
statistically significant, although they generally retained the negative sign (in parametric analyses
using a bandwidth of 30, for example, β=-0.158, SE=0.145). When schools with 38 tested black
students were additionally excluded from the analysis, estimating the discontinuity in attrition
between black teachers in schools with 37 tested black students and schools with 40, the
discontinuity decreased in magnitude to nearly zero and was not statistically significant (in
parametric analyses using a bandwidth of 30, β=-0.009, SE=0.150).
<C>Testing pseudocutoffs.
Since there were relatively few black teachers in the data, these teachers’ attrition varied
a great deal across schools with various numbers of tested black students, making it possible that
this study’s findings were simply an artifact of random variation. A common falsification test to
examine whether RD findings are unique to the cutoff is to conduct RD analyses using false
cutoffs, and examine whether discontinuities exist at these values of the assignment variable
(Imbens and Lemieux 2008). Following the procedure outlined by Imbens and Lemieux (2008),
separate analyses were conducted above and below the true cutoffs, so that the discontinuity at
the true cutoff would not influence the estimates, using the median value of the assignment
variable in the above- and below-cutoff samples as the false cutoffs. The same full range of
parametric and nonparametric analyses described earlier were conducted, and these analyses
found no evidence of discontinuities at any of the false cutoffs in either the pre- or post-NCLB
periods.9
<C>Including controls.
9 Results of these analyses are available upon request.
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The inclusion of covariates, although not necessary to obtain unbiased regression
discontinuity estimates (Lee and Lemieux 2010), can increase the precision of the estimated
discontinuity, and can also provide a useful robustness test. If the estimated discontinuity
decreases in magnitude or becomes statistically insignificant with the addition of covariates, the
observed discontinuity may simply be an artifact of selection of units to one side or another of
the cutoff (Bloom 2012). To test this possibility, Table 7 presents results of RD models testing
the effects of accountability for the black student subgroup that include the full set of controls
from Tables 1, 2, and 3. For simplicity of presentation, these models focus on wider bandwidths
around the cutoff (20 and 30 tested black students) and the quadratic and linear forms of the
running variable. The first model in each panel reproduces the analyses from Table 4, which do
not include controls; the second model includes the control variables from Tables 1, 2, and 3; and
the third model in each section includes these controls as well as their interactions with a post-
NCLB dummy. Only difference-in-differences coefficients are presented.
Results presented in Table 7 show that the inclusion of control variables did not
significantly affect the estimates of the discontinuity at the cutoff. In the models with controls,
the magnitude of the estimated discontinuity was generally larger than that in the models without
controls, although the estimates from all three sets of models could not be statistically
distinguished from one another with 95% confidence. (The same was true for the year-by-year
analyses of black teacher attrition.) This suggests that the discontinuity at the cutoff in the main
analyses was not driven by differences in the covariates between schools just above and just
below the cutoff.
The inclusion of controls, however, did not diminish the dependence of the results on
schools with 38 and 39 tested black students. With the full set of controls included in the models,
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the exclusion of schools with 39 tested black students (or of schools with 38 or 39 tested black
students) decreased the magnitude of the discontinuity in black teacher attrition at the cutoff and
rendered it statistically insignificant, as in prior analyses. The fact that these schools remain
highly influential to the results suggests that unique circumstances in these schools may account
for the results. The following examination of potential explanations for these findings, therefore,
both includes and excludes this group of schools, to determine their impact on the results.
<A>5. Exploratory Analyses of Potential Explanations
Since black elementary school teachers taught greater percentages of black students than
white teachers in their schools, it was possible that black teachers responded strongly to
accountability for the black subgroup simply because they worked with these students more than
other teachers.10 To explore this possibility, the RD analyses for black teachers in equations (1)
and (2) were interacted with the percentage of black students in black teachers’ classes (both as a
continuous and three-level categorical variable). Results showed no evidence of differential
effects of the policy depending on the percentage of black students in black teachers’ classes.
Other analyses examined whether the policy caused changes in black teachers’ teaching
assignments. Although these analyses did not shed light on the aspects of subgroup-specific
accountability that caused black teachers to leave teaching, they did enable an exploration of the
changes in black teachers’ working conditions that were caused by the policy, providing
suggestive evidence of what might have caused these teachers to leave. These analyses examined
black teachers’ class sizes, whether they taught self-contained classes or a tested grade, and the
10 The results of regressions using school fixed effects showed that black teachers’ classes had approximately 4 percentage points more black students than the classes of white teachers in their schools. In a class of 25 students, this translated to black teachers having, on average, nine black students in their classes, as compared to eight black students for their white colleagues.
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percentage of their students that were black; they also compared black teachers’ classes in each
year to their prior year’s classes, examining whether they taught fewer students, a different
grade, were moved into a tested grade, or taught a greater percentage of black students compared
to the prior year. Each of these characteristics of black teachers’ teaching assignments was
examined using a full set of nonparametric and parametric RD analyses, using the bandwidths
and functional forms outlined earlier, for two years prior to NCLB and two years after the policy
took effect.
In 2003-04, the year after schools were first held accountable for their black students’
performance, black teachers in schools that fell just above the cutoff for the number of tested
black students the prior year taught significantly smaller percentages of black students than black
teachers in schools that fell just below the cutoff. Results from this analysis are presented in the
top row of Table 8, where the estimates are consistently negative and—particularly in the
parametric RD models—statistically significant. The magnitude of these estimates suggests that
in above-cutoff schools black teachers’ classes were comprised of about 12 percentage point
fewer black students than the classes of black teachers in schools just below the cutoff. In prior
years, including the first year of NCLB (2002-03), the discontinuities in the percentage of black
students in black teachers’ classes at the cutoff were imprecisely measured and not generally
statistically significant. This suggests that in 2003-04 there were changes in black teachers’
teaching assignments caused by accountability for the black subgroup the prior year. These
findings are robust to the inclusion of the full set of teacher and school covariates shown in
Tables 1, 2, and 3. Similarly, Table 9 shows that when schools with 38 or 39 tested black
students were excluded from the analyses, the results remained consistent in magnitude and
direction.
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Results from analyses including all schools are depicted visually in Figure 6. In the two
years prior to NCLB, there are no discontinuities in the percentage of black students in black
teachers’ classes at the cutoff. The year that NCLB first took effect (2002-03), the imprecisely
estimated discontinuity at the cutoff appears to be driven by a particularly high value for schools
with 39 tested black students. In the first year after schools faced accountability for their black
subgroups (2003-04), however, the figure shows a clear discontinuity at the cutoff in the
percentage of black students assigned to black teachers. Subgroup-specific accountability clearly
caused changes in the way that black students were assigned to black teachers.
There was also a sizeable discontinuity in the likelihood that black teachers taught a
greater percentage of black students than the prior year at the cutoff, as can be seen in the bottom
panel of Table 8. This discontinuity was not consistently statistically significant across all
bandwidths and functional forms, but was large and negative in 2003-04, and increased a great
deal relative to the prior year (2002-03). Along with the results for the percentage of black
students in black teachers’ classes, this suggests that subgroup-specific accountability for the
black subgroup led to a shifting of black students away from black teachers in above-cutoff
schools, or a shifting of black students to black teachers in below-cutoff schools, in the year after
the policy took effect. It is important to note that these shifts in the teaching assignments of black
teachers happened after the policy caused the attrition of black teachers outlined previously. For
this reason, these changes in black teachers’ teaching assignments are not necessarily
explanations for the effects on black teacher attrition; instead, they can be seen as evidence that
the dynamics of black teachers’ teaching assignments were different in above- versus below-
cutoff schools after the policy took effect.
Other analyses examined whether schools that were accountable for the black subgroup
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in the first year of NCLB subsequently hired more or fewer black teachers than schools that were
not accountable for the black subgroup’s performance. These analyses found no pattern of
significant discontinuities in the number of newly hired black teachers, or the percentage of
newly hired teachers that were black, at the cutoff in the pre-NCLB period, or in any of the three
years after the policy took effect.
<A>6. Discussion
The first section of this study proposed four mechanisms that might explain any effects of
subgroup-specific accountability on teacher turnover and attrition: job pressure, resource
allocation, teacher motivation, and strategic manipulation. Of these mechanisms, job pressure is
the least consistent with the results presented here. The job pressure explanation predicts that
accountability for the black subgroup would increase the pressure on teachers in above-cutoff
schools and increase those teachers’ turnover or attrition; instead, these analyses find that
accountability for the black subgroup caused black teachers in above-cutoff schools to leave
teaching at significantly lower rates than black teachers in below-cutoff schools. The resource
allocation explanation is more consistent with these results, since it predicts that teacher turnover
and attrition would decrease in above-cutoff schools; however, this explanation also predicts that
teachers that work most closely with the focal subgroup would be the most affected by the
policy, which these analyses do not find to be the case.
The motivation explanation is an intriguing possibility, particularly given that black
teachers were affected by accountability for the same-race subgroup. Seeing that the black
students “counted” in their schools, and that their schools were taking action to address the
achievement gap between black and white students, may have caused black teachers to remain in
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teaching that might otherwise have left. In below-cutoff schools, black teachers might have been
discouraged by their schools falling just short of those cutoffs, and chosen to leave teaching.
Prior research has documented effects of falling just short of strict cutoffs for various policies
(Papay, Murnane, and Willett 2010; Domina, Penner, and Penner 2016), and it is possible that
the increased attrition of black teachers from schools that fell just short of accountability for their
black subgroups represents exactly such an effect. Prior research also suggests that minority
workers’ perceptions of the “diversity climates” of their workplaces strongly predict both their
commitment to their organizations and their turnover (Griffeth and Hom 2001; Foley et al. 2002;
Chrobot-Mason 2003). The specific mechanisms by which accountability for the black subgroup
affected black teachers is challenging to investigate using administrative data, however, and
surveys of teachers or qualitative research will likely be necessary to more fully explore these
effects.
The final potential mechanism discussed at the outset of this study, strategic
manipulation, is also consistent with the results presented here. The effects of accountability for
the black subgroup appear concentrated in schools with 38 or 39 tested black students, the very
schools where such manipulation could have occurred. Although teachers may have not had
knowledge of where their schools fell in relation to the cutoff, their principals could have had
knowledge of both this cutoff and their schools’ numbers of black students eligible for testing, as
well as the opportunity to manipulate their schools’ numbers of tested black students, and
teachers may have observed this manipulation.
This study’s findings on changes in black teachers’ class assignments, however,
demonstrate that the policy had significant effects on aspects of black teachers’ working
conditions. The year after subgroup-specific accountability was first implemented, black teachers
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in schools that had been held accountable for the black subgroup were assigned significantly
smaller percentages of black students than black teacher in schools just below the cutoff. This is
consistent with black students being shifted away from black teachers in schools where the black
subgroup suddenly counted towards AYP. These results, in contrast to the results for turnover
and attrition, are not sensitive to the exclusion of schools with 38 or 39 tested black students.
The effects of accountability for the black subgroup on black teacher attrition was
cumulative, with some of the effect occurring between the announcement of the policy and its
first year of implementation, and these effects continuing in the year between the policy’s first
and second years. The small, insignificant, negative discontinuity in black teacher attrition at the
cutoff between 2001-02 and 2002-03 took place well before the testing that ultimately
determined which schools fell above the cutoff and which did not; given the ambiguities about
the timeline of the policy’s implementation, however, it is impossible to rule out that schools and
teachers had some knowledge of where they would fall in relation to the cutoff in the summer of
2002, and this information could have affected black teacher attrition during that time.
One interesting question raised by these analyses is whether black teacher attrition was
voluntary or involuntary. Black teacher attrition could have been driven by teachers’ decisions to
remain in or leave public school teaching in North Carolina; alternatively, accountability for the
black subgroup could have affected the likelihood that black teachers were let go from their jobs.
Analyses not presented here find that black teachers that left teaching from below-cutoff schools
after the policy took effect were more likely to be first-year teachers than black teachers that left
teaching from above cutoff schools (24% versus 4%, respectively, p< 0.05). This is consistent
with below-cutoff schools letting go of their most inexperienced black teachers, or with above-
cutoff schools holding onto those teachers.
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This study suggests that policies that impose cutoffs and hold some schools accountable
for subgroup performance and others not may have unintended consequences for teacher labor
markets. Minority teacher attrition is a significant concern for schools and school districts
(Ingersoll and May 2011), and understanding the factors that drive that attrition—particularly the
role of large-scale policies such as NCLB—is an important direction for future research.
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Table 1: North Carolina Elementary School Characteristics, 2001-02 A B C All North
Carolina elementary
schools
Elementary schools with
35 to 44 tested black students a
Elementary schools with
35 to 44 tested white students a
Fraction free or reduced lunch students 0.50 0.41 0.72 (0.24) (0.23) (0.21) Fraction Asian students 0.02 0.02 0.02 (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) Fraction black students 0.35 0.24 0.56 (0.26) (0.14) (0.17) Fraction Hispanic students 0.07 0.07 0.08 (0.07) (0.06) (0.08) Fraction Native American students 0.01 0.01 0.01 (0.05) (0.01) (0.02) Fraction white students 0.55 0.66 0.33 (0.28) (0.16) (0.18) Located in city 0.31 0.20 0.58 (0.46) (0.40) (0.50) Located in suburbs 0.17 0.26 0.00 (0.37) (0.44) (0.00) Located in town 0.14 0.10 0.25 (0.35) (0.30) (0.44) Located in rural area 0.39 0.45 0.17 (0.49) (0.50) (0.38) Charter school 0.01 0.02 0.03 (0.12) (0.15) (0.17) Number of students 511 521 414 (197) (200) (163) Exemplary (ABC Accountability)b 0.42 0.49 0.28 (0.50) (0.50) (0.45) Expected (ABC Accountability)b 0.37 0.34 0.19 (0.48) (0.48) (0.40) No recognition (ABC Accountability)b 0.20 0.17 0.53 (0.40) (0.38) (0.51) Predicted probability black subgroup made AYP 0.86 0.86 0.85 (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) Predicted probability white subgroup made AYP 0.98 0.99 0.98 (0.09) (0.04) (0.04) Schools, n 1,060 94 36
a In 2002-03, the first year of NCLB. b North Carolina’s state-level accountability system.
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Table 2: Subgroup-specific Accountability in North Carolina Elementary Schools, 2002-03 A B C All North
Carolina elementary
schools
Elementary schools with
35 to 44 tested black
students
Elementary schools with
35 to 44 tested white
students Accountable for Asian subgroup 0.01 0.03 0.00 (0.11) (0.18) (0.00) Accountable for black subgroup 0.64 0.50 0.86 (0.48) (0.50) (0.35) Accountable for Hispanic subgroup 0.08 0.04 0.11 (0.28) (0.20) (0.32) Accountable for multiracial subgroup 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Accountable for Native American subgroup 0.01 0.00 0.00 (0.11) (0.00) (0.00) Accountable for white subgroup 0.82 0.92 0.47 (0.38) (0.28) (0.51) Accountable for econ. disadvantaged subgroup 0.91 0.88 0.89 (0.29) (0.32) (0.32) Accountable for limited English subgroup 0.04 0.02 0.06 (0.19) (0.15) (0.23) Accountable for special ed. subgroup 0.32 0.28 0.14 (0.47) (0.45) (0.35) Schools, n 1,060 94 36
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Table 3: North Carolina Elementary Teacher Characteristics, 2001-02 A B C All North Carolina
elementary schools Elementary schools with 35 to 44 tested black students a
Elementary schools with 35 to 44 tested white students a
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Asian 0.00 (0.05) 0.00 (0.06) 0.00 (0.07) Black 0.14 (0.34) 0.08 (0.27) 0.23 (0.42) Hispanic 0.01 (0.09) 0.01 (0.09) 0.01 (0.09) Multiracial 0.01 (0.07) 0.00 (0.05) 0.00 (0.07) Native American 0.01 (0.09) 0.00 (0.06) 0.01 (0.09) White 0.84 (0.37) 0.91 (0.29) 0.75 (0.44) Female 0.94 (0.23) 0.95 (0.22) 0.92 (0.27) Entering first year in education 0.06 (0.24) 0.06 (0.24) 0.08 (0.27) Very competitive college 0.07 (0.26) 0.09 (0.28) 0.06 (0.23) Competitive college 0.47 (0.50) 0.51 (0.50) 0.41 (0.49) Less competitive college 0.39 (0.49) 0.35 (0.48) 0.44 (0.50) Holds advanced degree 0.27 (0.45) 0.28 (0.45) 0.24 (0.43) National Board-certified 0.04 (0.20) 0.05 (0.22) 0.02 (0.13) High-scorer on licensure exam 0.10 (0.30) 0.10 (0.30) 0.09 (0.28) Middle-scorer on licensure exam 0.78 (0.42) 0.82 (0.39) 0.75 (0.43) Low-scorer on licensure exam 0.12 (0.33) 0.08 (0.27) 0.16 (0.37) Holds standard license 0.93 (0.26) 0.93 (0.25) 0.90 (0.30) Taught self-contained class 0.84 (0.37) 0.85 (0.36) 0.87 (0.33) % students taught that are black 0.32 (0.27) 0.21 (0.15) 0.56 (0.19) % students taught that are white 0.54 (0.30) 0.65 (0.22) 0.28 (0.17) Left school within 1 year 0.22 (0.41) 0.22 (0.41) 0.26 (0.44) Left school within 2 years 0.35 (0.48) 0.36 (0.48) 0.44 (0.50) Left teaching within 1 year b 0.17 (0.37) 0.16 (0.37) 0.19 (0.40) Left teaching within 2 years b 0.26 (0.44) 0.28 (0.45) 0.30 (0.46) Teachers, n 31, 211 2,695 930
a In 2002-03, the first year of NCLB. b Public school teaching in North Carolina.
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Table 4: Effects of Accountability for black Subgroup on Two-Year Attrition for Black and White Teachers Nonparametric Parametric (cubic) Parametric (quadratic) Parametric (linear) Panel A:
Black
teachers
Mean attrition 2 3 4 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30
Post-NCLB 0.258 -0.360* -0.495+ -0.602** -0.715** -0.390* -0.311* -0.431* -0.238* -0.221* -0.213+ -0.141+ -0.062
(0.144) (0.270) (0.189) (0.243) (0.163) (0.132) (0.173) (0.114) (0.096) (0.110) (0.076) (0.070)
Pre-NCLB 0.259 -0.056 -0.270 -0.162 -0.088 -0.020 -0.090 -0.020 -0.037 -0.024 -0.019 -0.003 0.067
(0.141) (0.259) (0.184) (0.369) (0.211) (0.152) (0.243) (0.023) (0.101) (0.118) (0.074) (0.067)
Difference -0.628* -0.370* -0.222+ -0.411* -0.201+ -0.197* -0.195+ -0.138+ -0.129+
(0.255) (0.160) (0.131) (0.175) (0.114) (0.098) (0.111) (0.080) (0.071) n, post-NCLB
109 136 195 336 707 971 336 707 971 336 707 971
n, pre-NCLB 116 153 216 363 764 1,037 363 764 1,037 363 764 1,037 Panel B:
White
teachers
Post-NCLB 0.254 0.004 0.065 0.013 0.006 -0.074 -0.009 -0.019 0.005 0.014 -0.014 0.011 0.003
(0.040) (0.075) (0.056) (0.084) (0.060) (0.046) (0.063) (0.042) (0.034) (0.039) (0.027) (0.023)
Pre-NCLB 0.259 -0.018 -0.073 -0.029 0.036 0.028 -0.017 0.014 -0.007 -0.014 0.003 -0.018 -0.007
(0.038) (0.072) (0.055) (0.071) (0.046) (0.037) (0.049) (0.034) (0.028) (0.032) (0.023) (0.020)
Difference -0.030 -0.102 0.008 -0.033 0.012 0.028 -0.018 0.029 0.010
(0.092) (0.063) (0.051) (0.064) (0.046) (0.039) (0.044) (0.032) (0.027) n, post-NCLB
1,384 1,668 2,285 4,292 8,448 11,316 4,292 8,448 11,316 4,292 8,448 11,316
n, pre-NCLB 1,357 1,640 2,113 3,987 7,914 10,618 3,987 7,914 10,618 3,987 7,914 10,618
Notes: Each cell reports the estimated discontinuity in the probability that a teacher in a school with 40 black students (North Carolina's minimum subgroup size) left public school teaching in North Carolina. Each cell reports the results from a separate regression. Nonparametric estimates are from local linear regressions in the designated bandwidth around the cutoff, using a triangle kernel. Parametric analyses are linear probability models that include the given terms of the assignment variable (the number of tested black students), as well as the interaction of each polynomial with the treatment dummy. "Mean attrition" is the teacher attrition of black or white teachers in the entire sample, and is provided for reference. Nonparametric bandwidths of 2, 3, and 4 are near the optimal bandwidth given by the Imbens & Kalyanaraman (2012) procedure, which ranges between 2 and 3 for these regressions. Standard errors for parametric analyses are clustered at the school level. Analyses do not include covariates. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01.
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Table 5: Effects of Accountability for Black Subgroup on One-Year Black Teacher Attrition
Nonparametric Parametric (cubic) Parametric (quadratic) Parametric (linear) 2 3 4 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 PRE-NCLB 98-99 to 99-00 X -0.151 -0.066 0.044 0.006 -0.066 -0.067 -0.096 -0.102+ -0.013 -0.062 -0.035 X (0.204) (0.146) (0.176) (0.101) (0.077) (0.107) (0.067) (0.059) (0.069) (0.048) (0.046) 99-00 to 00-01 -0.002 -0.151 -0.024 0.118 0.079 -0.025 0.142 -0.008 -0.019 -0.020 -0.013 0.032 (0.108) (0.181) (0.140) (0.235) (0.129) (0.093) (0.160) (0.078) (0.066) (0.072) (0.052) (0.048) 00-01 to 01-02 -0.020 -0.129 -0.096 -0.109 -0.050 -0.057 -0.085 -0.022 -0.047 -0.022 -0.031 0.024 (0.141) (0.258) (0.182) (0.263) (0.163) (0.127) (0.180) (0.107) (0.086) (0.102) (0.067) (0.058) POST-NCLB 01-02 to 02-03 -0.205+ -0.107 -0.259 -0.340+ -0.193 -0.177+ -0.156 -0.121 -0.115 -0.097 -0.078 -0.041 (0.124) (0.248) (0.172) (0.184) (0.127) (0.103) (0.134) (0.092) (0.078) (0.089) (0.062) (0.056) 02-03 to 03-04 -0.274+ -0.478 -0.499* -0.522 -0.266 -0.139 -0.422 -0.095 -0.129 -0.088 -0.074 -0.009 (0.154) (0.299) (0.202) (0.429) (0.259) (0.191) (0.271) (0.154) (0.117) (0.146) (0.084) (0.071) 03-04 to 04-05 0.004 0.293 -0.063 -0.124 -0.063 -0.020 -0.043 0.032 -0.036 -0.007 -0.019 0.045 (0.102) (0.228) (0.136) (0.202) (0.131) (0.111) (0.139) (0.088) (0.074) (0.080) (0.057) (0.054)
Notes: Each cell reports the estimated discontinuity in the probability that a teacher in a school with 40 black students (North Carolina's minimum subgroup size) left public school teaching in North Carolina. Each cell reports the results from a separate regression. Nonparametric estimates are from local linear regressions in the designated bandwidth around the cutoff, using a triangle kernel. Parametric analyses are linear probability models that include the given terms of the assignment variable (the number of tested black students), as well as the interaction of each polynomial with the treatment dummy. Nonparametric bandwidths of 2, 3, and 4 are near the optimal bandwidth given by Imbens & Kalyanaraman (2012) procedure, which ranges between 2 and 3 for these regressions. Standard errors for parametric analyses are clustered at the school level. Analyses do not include covariates. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01.
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Table 6: Difference-in-Differences Analyses of Teacher Attrition in North Carolina Schools Accountable for Black Subgroup that Failed to Make Overall AYP in 2002-03 Pre-NCLB
(99-00 to 01-02) Post-NCLB
(01-02 to 03-04) Difference in differences
Black subgroup didn’t make AYPa Black teacher attrition 0.274 0.276 White teacher attrition 0.289 0.302 Difference (black - white) -0.015 -0.026 -0.012 Black subgroup made AYPa Black teacher attrition 0.205 0.258 White teacher attrition 0.265 0.245 Difference (black - white) -0.061** 0.013 0.073**
Notes: Standard errors clustered at school level. a In 2002-03, the first year of NCLB. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01.
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Table 7: Effects of Accountability for Black Subgroup on Two-Year Attrition for Black and White Teachers, with Controls Panel A: Black
teachers 20, quadratic 30, quadratic 20, linear 30, linear
Difference -0.201+ -0.237* -0.345** -0.197* -0.209* -0.299** -0.138+ -0.154+ -0.210* -0.129+ -0.113 -0.144+ (0.114) (0.115) (0.122) (0.098) (0.102) (0.109) (0.080) (0.082) (0.089) (0.071) (0.073) (0.076) Controls X X X X X X X X Controls x post X X X X N observations (teacher x year) 1,471 1,471 1,471 2,008 2,008 2,008 1,471 1,471 1,471 2,008 2,008 2,008
Panel B: White
teachers
Difference 0.012 0.028 0.029 0.028 0.029 0.040 0.029 0.031 0.036 0.010 0.017 0.019
(0.046) (0.045) (0.047) (0.039) (0.037) (0.040) (0.032) (0.030) (0.032) (0.027) (0.025) (0.025)
Controls X X X X X X X X Controls x post X X X X N observations (teacher x year) 16,362 16,362 16,362 21,934 21,934 21,934 16,362 16,362 16,362 21,934 21,934 21,934
Notes: Each cell reports the estimated discontinuity in the probability that a teacher in a school with 40 black students (North Carolina's minimum subgroup size) left public school teaching in North Carolina. Each cell reports the results from a separate regression. Controls are those listed in Tables 1, 2, and 3. Analyses are linear probability models that include the given terms of the assignment variable (the number of tested black students), as well as the interaction of each polynomial with the treatment dummy. Standard errors are clustered at the school level. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01.
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Table 8: Effects of Accountability for Black Subgroup on Classroom Characteristics for Black Teachers Nonparametric Parametric (cubic) Parametric (quadratic) Parametric (linear) 2 3 4 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 Percent black students in teachers’ class(es) 2003-04 -0.101* -0.074 -0.106+ -0.110 -0.164* -0.183* -0.161* -0.138* -0.107+ -0.163** -0.071 -0.025 (0.043) (0.136) (0.062) (0.114) (0.083) (0.082) (0.080) (0.066) (0.058) (0.057) (0.047) (0.053) 2002-03 -0.385** -0.759** -0.560** -0.634+ -0.341 -0.231 -0.418+ -0.185 -0.145 -0.190 -0.090 -0.055 (0.093) (0.193) (0.132) (0.351) (0.223) (0.171) (0.244) (0.140) (0.105) (0.123) (0.075) (0.067) 2001-02 X -0.449** -0.374** -0.410 -0.205 -0.125 -0.276 -0.103 -0.082 -0.097 -0.042 -0.021 X (0.166) (0.120) (0.314) (0.187) (0.144) (0.206) (0.116) (0.091) (0.105) (0.066) (0.060) 2000-01 -0.102 -0.385* -0.178 -0.145 -0.051 -0.031 -0.036 -0.030 -0.027 -0.037 -0.015 -0.013 (0.102) (0.177) (0.134) (0.344) (0.198) (0.144) (0.229) (0.118) (0.093) (0.109) (0.068) (0.060) n (2003-04) 91 127 169 322 702 986 322 702 986 322 702 986 Taught greater percentage black students than prior year 2003-04 -0.321 -0.230 -0.234 -0.387 -0.304 -0.280* -0.258 -0.246* -0.187+ -0.199+ -0.144+ -0.158* (0.218) (0.426) (0.283) (0.335) (0.196) (0.140) (0.226) (0.120) (0.098) (0.114) (0.079) (0.069) 2002-03 X 0.177 -0.039 -0.012 -0.037 -0.161 0.015 -0.155 -0.147 -0.132 -0.140 -0.132+ X (0.339) (0.239) (0.281) (0.179) (0.151) (0.184) (0.133) (0.109) (0.127) (0.088) (0.074) 2001-02 -0.081 -0.200 -0.153 -0.354 -0.301+ -0.101 -0.402* -0.096 -0.066 -0.098 -0.010 -0.015 (0.193) (0.360) (0.248) (0.248) (0.167) (0.141) (0.180) (0.125) (0.104) (0.116) (0.086) (0.074) 2000-01 X 0.470 0.492* 0.582* 0.392* 0.101 0.418* 0.074 0.069 0.134 0.042 0.042 X (0.289) (0.202) (0.236) (0.160) (0.143) (0.165) (0.126) (0.106) (0.114) (0.084) (0.073) n (2003-04) 78 109 146 274 587 822 274 587 822 274 587 822
Notes: Each cell reports the estimated discontinuity in the outcome for black teachers in a school with 40 black students (North Carolina's minimum subgroup size) in 2002-03, the first year of NCLB. Each cell reports the results from a separate regression. Nonparametric estimates are from local linear regressions in the designated bandwidth around the cutoff, using a triangle kernel. Parametric analyses are linear probability models that include the given terms of the assignment variable (the number of tested black students), as well as the interaction of each polynomial with the treatment dummy. Nonparametric bandwidths of 2, 3, and 4 are near the optimal bandwidth given by Imbens & Kalyanaraman (2012) procedure, which ranges between 2 and 3 for these regressions. Standard errors for parametric analyses are clustered at the school level. Analyses do not include covariates. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01
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Table 9: Effects of Accountability for Black Subgroup on Classroom Characteristics for Black Teachers, Excluding Schools Just Below the Cutoff
Quadratic Linear Bandwidth 20 Bandwidth 30 Bandwidth 20 Bandwidth 30
All w/o 39 w/o 38, 39 All w/o 39 w/o 38,
39 All w/o 39 w/o 38, 39 All w/o 39 w/o 38,
39 Percent black students in teachers’ class(es)
2003-04 -0.138* -0.134 -0.165+ -0.107+ -0.111+ -0.135+ -0.071 -0.071 -0.085 -0.025 -0.020 -0.027 (0.066) (0.082) (0.095) (0.058) (0.066) (0.073) (0.047) (0.051) (0.055) (0.053) (0.056) (0.058)
2002-03 -0.185 -0.199 -0.230 -0.145 -0.156 -0.179 -0.090 -0.095 -0.108 -0.055 -0.057 -0.066 (0.140) (0.158) (0.166) (0.105) (0.115) (0.121) (0.075) (0.080) (0.083) (0.067) (0.070) (0.072)
2001-02 -0.103 -0.118 -0.139 -0.082 -0.093 -0.109 -0.042 -0.048 -0.057 -0.021 -0.025 -0.031 (0.116) (0.128) (0.135) (0.091) (0.099) (0.103) (0.066) (0.069) (0.072) (0.060) (0.063) (0.065)
2000-01 -0.030 -0.043 -0.052 -0.027 -0.038 -0.045 -0.015 -0.021 -0.026 -0.013 -0.017 -0.021 (0.118) (0.129) (0.134) (0.093) (0.100) (0.103) (0.068) (0.071) (0.072) (0.060) (0.063) (0.064)
n (2003-04) 702 692 685 986 976 969 702 692 685 986 976 969
Taught greater percentage black students than prior year 2003-04 -0.246* -0.282* -0.313* -0.187+ -0.201* -0.214+ -0.144+ -0.147+ -0.149+ -0.158* -0.158* -0.157*
(0.120) (0.124) (0.136) (0.098) (0.101) (0.109) (0.079) (0.081) (0.085) (0.069) (0.071) (0.074) 2002-03 -0.155 -0.163 -0.169 -0.147 -0.150 -0.153 -0.140 -0.143 -0.145 -0.132+ -0.134+ -0.136+
(0.133) (0.142) (0.154) (0.109) (0.114) (0.122) (0.088) (0.090) (0.095) (0.074) (0.076) (0.079) 2001-02 -0.096 -0.058 -0.093 -0.066 -0.037 -0.062 -0.010 0.013 0.001 -0.015 0.004 -0.006
(0.125) (0.140) (0.152) (0.104) (0.113) (0.122) (0.086) (0.090) (0.095) (0.074) (0.077) (0.080) 2000-01 0.074 0.056 0.058 0.069 0.056 0.058 0.042 0.034 0.036 0.042 0.037 0.039
(0.126) (0.144) (0.151) (0.106) (0.117) (0.122) (0.084) (0.090) (0.093) (0.073) (0.077) (0.079) n (2003-
04) 587 581 574 822 816 809 587 581 574 822 816 809
Notes: Each cell reports the estimated discontinuity in the outcome for black teachers in a school with 40 black students (North Carolina's minimum subgroup size) in 2002-03, the first year of NCLB. Each cell reports the results from a separate regression. Analyses are linear probability models that include the given terms of the assignment variable (the number of tested black students), as well as the interaction of each polynomial with the treatment dummy. Standard errors are clustered at the school level. Analyses do not include covariates. +=p<0.10; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01
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Education Finance and Policy Just Accepted MS.doi:10.1162/EDFP_a_00227 by Association for Education Finance and Policy
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Appendix A.1: Description of Data
Data used in this study were drawn from two sources. The first was a series of data files
on North Carolina teachers and schools, which are available to researchers through the North
Carolina Education Research Data Center (NCERDC) at Duke University. The specific data files
used in this study were the following (all from years 1999-2005):
School Activity Report (SAR) Personnel files
School Activity Report (SAR) student directory files
Student End-of-Grade (EOG) exam files
ABC accountability growth files
Teacher education files
Teacher licensure files
Teacher testing files
Teacher National Board Certification files
Common Core of Data (CCD) Public School Universe (PSU) files
The second source of data for this study was the Barnard/Columbia No Child Left Behind
Database. These data are publicly-available for download at the following website:
http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/nclb/files#North%20Carolina
For this study, two data files were used: NorthCarolina_2003.dta, and NorthCarolina_2004.dta.
Stata do-files used to prepare the data and conduct the analyses are available from the
author upon request.
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Figure 1: Discontinuities in Density of Assignment Variable
Panel A: Number of tested black students
Panel B: Number of tested white students
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Figure 2: Estimated Discontinuities in Pretreatment School and Teacher Covariates
Panel A: School Covariates
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Panel B: Teacher Covariates
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Figure 3: Two-Year Black Teacher Attrition, by Number of Tested Black Students in School
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Figure 4: Pre-Post-NCLB Difference in Two-Year Black Teacher Attrition, by Number of Tested
Black Students in School
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Figure 5: Discontinuities in One-year Black Teacher Attrition at the Subgroup-Specific
Accountability Cutoff Across the Pre- and Post-NCLB Periods
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