Educause 2012 talk

Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots: A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized Learning

Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012

© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Motivations:• Increased access to

opportunity• Hard problems• Impatient actors• Enlightened self interest

My frame of reference

Private sector:• Strategy and management

consultant• Software entrepreneur• MBA

Nonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park

Service, charter schools, and health services

• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed


In the end, the American dream is not a sprint, or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families don’t always cross the finish line in the span

of one generation. But each generation passes on to the next the fruits of their labor.

Julian CastroMayor, San Antonio


Education is the pathway to opportunity in the U.S.

Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated)

Education of parents

Race of head of household

Health status of parents

State of residence

Female-headed household

Financial assets

Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms)

30%

100%

14%

8%5%

3%

1-28%12-39%

Intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel


Higher education is not equitably distributed

Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.

Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24


Economic competitiveness argues for more education as well

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf


% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)

55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)

2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)

3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)

4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)

5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)

6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)

7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)

8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)

9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)

10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)

11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)

12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)

13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)

14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)

15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)

Degree attainment is flat

7Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)


Three challenges for the next decade

AccessEnrollment caps

Course availability“Non-traditional”

new normal

CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student

ability to pay

QualityLow completion

ratesUnclear learning

outcomes





new normal


ability to pay



outcomes

0

5

10

15M

Private 4 year

Public 4 year

Public 2 year

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

27%

11%

10%

29%

1987-1993

5%

4%

9%

49%

1993-2001

22%

18%

19%

184%

2001-2009

62%

37%

43%

447%

1987-2009

For-profit

Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009Period % Change Total %

Change

Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database

We have made impressive strides in improving college access…


…but enrollment growth may be reversing

Source: L.A. Times; Washington Monthly

Survey offers dire picture of state's two-year collegesAugust 29, 2012 Carla Rivera

More than 470,000 community college students are beginning the fall semester on waiting lists, unable to get into the courses they need, according to a survey of California's two-year colleges that captures a system struggling amid severe budget cuts….

Five Reasons College Enrollments Might Be DroppingOctober 24, 2012 Richard Vedder

…state by state, enrollments appear to be down, mostly at community colleges and at some four-year schools as well. In Ohio, preliminary numbers from the Board of Regents of the University System of Ohio show a 5.9 percent decline, and the drop-off at one community college (Hocking) was so precipitous (more than 20 percent) that it had to dismiss staff. In other Midwest states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, numbers at some institutions have fallen as well. In Arizona, one large Tucson- area community college (Pima) shows a decline of 11 percent...


“Hidden capacity constraints” extend beyond formal enrollment caps

Community College Students

Latino Students

California Students

20 and 21 Year Old Students

32

55

47

45

Percent of Community College Student Unable to Enroll in One or More Courses Because Full

Source: Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive,Field dates: September 27th through November 4th, 2010


Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional

75%

25%

“Traditional”• Enter college

directly after high school

• Enroll fulltime• Financially

dependent on their parents

“Non-traditional”• Financially

independent (>50%)

• Have dependents of their own (27%)

• Work full time (38%)

• Enroll part time (49%)

Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).





new normal


ability to pay



outcomes


Too few students are graduating

Source: NELS 1988

Total Private not-for-profit

Public 4-year

Private for-profit

Public 2-year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bachelor'sAssociate'sCertificate

Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years

53%

73%

61%55%

38%


Developmental education is one of the drivers of low completion rates

Referred Enroll, don't complete

Complete sequence

Pass gatekeeper0

102030405060708090

100Never enroll17%

17%10%

66%

83%

SOURCE: Bailey, et al. Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education sequences in community colleges. CCRC (2009).

What happens to students who test 3 levels below

college level math?


What students are actually learning is being questioned

45 percent of students “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”


Employers give recent graduates decidedly low marks on essential learning outcomes

Source: AAC&U

Teamwork

Ethical Judgment

Oral Communication

Critical Thinking

Writing

Self-direction

Global Knowledge

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

39%

38%

30%

22%

26%

23%

18%

17%

19%

23%

31%

37%

42%

46%

Not well preparedVery well prepared





new normal


ability to pay



outcomes


The public story on tuition growth is not pretty

Source: New York Times


States are reducing per student funding to colleges

Source: TIME: Degrees of Difficultyhttp://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/degrees-of-difficulty/?pcd=teaser


0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

For-profit

Private 4 year

Public 4 year

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1%

6%

17%

32%

Public 2 year

Total %Change

1999-2009

The reality is cost per FTE at publics have only increased modestly

Per FTE Expenditures by Sector, Indexed and Inflation-Adjusted, 1999-2009

Note: All figures are real and adjusted for inflation The sub-set of private research institutions experienced even larger growth in spending per FTE of 29% over this period Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database


The effect on students is inescapable

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as quoted in Bill Bowen’s Tanner Lectures





new normal


ability to pay



outcomes


Meet Brianna

Started technical college with AP credit in chemistry and a clear goal: to become a veterinarian

Ambition: 2-year associates degree Her bet on finishing college? 100%

Estimated cost of attendance: ~$15,000 Expected family contribution: $2,500

• Mom and Dad paid it Total aid package (including loans): $8,000 Unmet need: $4,500

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS; photo CC-BY/NC (Joy Banwejee)


Brianna Took 12 Credits and Worked 30 Hours/Week

Schedule:5:30 am Wake up6:30 am Commute to school7:30 am – 11:00 pm Attend class, drive to work11:00 am – 1:00 pm Work job #1, drive to school1:30 pm – 5:30 pm Attend class, drive to work6:00 pm – 11:30 pm Work job #2, drive home12:00 am Take muscle relaxant and try

to sleep

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS


Brianna’s College Experience

“More than a couple of times, I fell asleep in my 7:30 am class…I'd get there and I'm trying to stay awake and I'm doing the ‘head-bob’ and before you know it my head is in my book …and every once in awhile you get a wake-up with a puddle of drool.”

At the end of her first term:• Course #1: D• Course #2: C• Course #3: D• Course #4: Withdrew• CUMULATIVE GPA: 0.750



What’s it like to be dismissed?

“It was kinda…it was almost kinda like a relief cause it’s like, you know, “Wow! This is, you know, it’s over,” but then again, it was, it was pretty stressful cause it was like, “You know, I went through all this work, and I accomplished nothing. I failed.” It was kinda a little bit of both, and it actually hit me pretty hard cause I was just crushed. I was like, ‘Wow! I’m never gonna get anywhere. I’ve got, you know, pretty much no hope for the future’...

The bottom is scary, and you just don’t really feel like you’re really worth anything, and you’re trying to get back on your feet; and you just beat yourself up cause it’s like, you know…”



How ready are traditional institutions to navigate the new reality?

Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.

“In the view of many college and university presidents, the three main factors in higher education—cost, quality, and access—exist in what we call an iron triangle. These factors are linked in an unbreakable reciprocal relationship, such that any change in one will inevitably impact the others.”

- Public Agenda research on opinions of higher education presidents

http://www.publicagenda.org/reports/iron-triangle

http://www.publicagenda.org/reports/iron-triangle


Or said another way…


Three leading innovations in personalized learning


Bigfoot


Bigfoot = undeniably better learning outcomes at repeatably lower costs

I have come to believe that “now is the time”—that far greater access to the internet, improvements in

internet speed, reductions in storage costs, and other advances have combined with changing mindsets to

suggest that online learning, in many of its manifestations, can lead to good learning outcomes

at lower cost.

Bill BowenPresident Emeritus, Princeton University


The core idea: the two-sigma problem

Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984


Closing the loop on learning

LearningObjectives

Assessment

Student Data

Content

Alignment Alignment

Alignment

“What don’t I know?”

“How do I learn this?”

“How did I do?”

LearningFeedback

Loop


Example: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/


Example: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Source: Ithaka


Example: National Center for Academic Transformation (NCAT)

38

Before redesign After redesign

Student success (C or better)

Before redesign After redesign

Costs per student

Source: National Center for Academic Transformation

+50%

-30%

Changing the Equation Initiative

• Redesign full developmental math sequence based on proven model

• 100,000+ students at 35 community colleges

• Technology partners include Pearson MyMathLab, ALEKS, Hawkes Learning System, etc.


Example: NROC Math

http://ocw.mit.edu/

http://ocw.mit.edu/


Example: Arizona State University and Knewton

Source: ASU

The outcome: After one semester of use with over 5,000 remedial math students at ASU, withdrawal rates dropped by 50% and pass rates went from 66% to 75%. Half the class finished 4 weeks early.


What carries the flipped classroom into general education?


Goldilocks


Per semester credits:4 year: >=155 year: 12-146 year: <12

Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;


46

714

33

Community college educational costs by course type

Courses taken by non-completers*

Excess courses taken by completers* beyond minimum

Courses failed/withdrawn by completers*

Courses contributing to a degree taken by

completers*

* Completers defined as students seeking a degree who earned a certificate, Associate’s, or Bachelor’s degree within 6 years of enrolling.Source: Forthcoming report “The Institutional Costs of Student Attrition” by Delta Cost Project, 2012, and “Winning by Degrees” by McKinsey & Company, 2010

There are real costs to poor advising and degree planning


Example: ASU’s eAdvisor

Source: ASU


Structured pathways to graduation


Just in Time Enrollment Management

Source: ASU


1. Finances (Scholarship renewal, to do’s, SAP)

2. Calculated Index (HS GPA, Test Scores)

3. Academic Status Report4. eAdvisor (off Track)5. My ASU Usage

(engagement compared to their cohort)

6. GPA7. Probation8. Transcripts Sent (excluding medical, law schools)9. Enrollment Holds

Student risk prediction and alerts


22%

39%1.2%

39%

2007 Status

46%

47%

8%

2008 Status

On Track

Off Track

On track by override

Completed

81%

13%7%

2009 Status

Impact on student progress

91%

5.8%0.1% on track by

override

2010 Status

Source: ASU


Model Program Pathway Design

Program learning goals clearly defined and aligned with outcome requirements

Program pathways well structured and prescribed

Students’ progress toward program requirements closely monitored; timely feedback provided

“On-ramps” help students choose a program of study

Incentives for students to enter and complete programs

Strong alignment with high school and ABE

Source: Davis Jenkins, Community College Research Center


WICHE PAR Framework

For new students: Each concurrent enrollment lowers chance of

passing ~10% Each prior term withdrawal reduces passing by

~50% Each additional course completed increases

likelihood of remaining enrolled 13% for Associate and 23% for Bachelor students


Moonshots


“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962,

at Rice University, Houston, Texas


“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962,

at Rice University, Houston, Texas

…provide high-quality, affordable education at scale…


Breakthrough delivery models

• Completion Rate: 50% Associate’s completion rate within three years for Pell Grant-eligible students; 75% within six years for Bachelor’s

• Price and Cost: $5,000 or less per year in student price and institutional costs

• Scale: 5,000 additional students by year 5 with path to 50,000

• Quality: Clear definition and monitoring process

Target Performance Metrics


Examples of innovators pursuing high-quality, affordable degree programs


Target.com model?

http://www.target.com/


What are common features of these models?

Prior learning assessment

Competency-based progression

Diagnostics assessment and adaptive learning

Badges, interim milestones, and motivational science

Connective media and peer-to-peer learning

Learning analytics and targeting scarce faculty and support resources

Online/blended delivery


Three leading innovations in personalized learning


A parting challenge

Costs

Today

Education(Access + Quality + Completion)


The great risk

Costs

Today

Tomorrow



The great opportunity

Costs

Today

Tomorrow


Tomorrow


What will it take?

• Business model innovation AND learning model innovation

• Promoters of innovation AND protectors of quality• Reimagining instructional model AND deep faculty

engagement• High technology AND high touch• Design AND scaling• Traditional institutions AND breakthrough models

Thank You

Josh Jarrett, Deputy DirectorEducation – Postsecondary Success

[email protected]

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have

done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena…who at the best knows in the end the triumph of

high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those

cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910

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Educause 2012 talk

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