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A federal judge ruled April 25 th that all employers who are required to submit EEO-1 surveys on employee demo- graphic data to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) must also report employee pay data by Sep- tember 30, 2019. This includes employers with at least 100 employees and federal contrac- tors with at least 50 employees and a contract of $50,000 or more with the federal government. The judge also ordered the EEOC to collect a second year of pay data. The agency was given a choice between collecting employers’ 2017 data with the 2018 pay data or waiting to collect 2019 pay data next year. The EEOC has decided to collect the 2017 pay information as its sec- ond year of data. The Online Filing System for submitting employer data opened on July 15th, and is accessible at https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/login. Under the new reporting requirements, employers must report earnings and hours data aggregated according to the EEO-1 job categories to which the employees are assigned for all employ- ees employed during a payroll period between October 1 st and December 31 st . For each EEO-1 job category, the employer must indicate the number of employees falling within each of the 12 pay bands by sex and race/ethnici- ty. Employers are required to use W-2 “Box 1” earnings to determine the pay band into which each employee falls. Additionally, for each EEO-1 job cat- egory, the employer must aggregate hours data for all employees in the pay band by sex and race/ethnicity. Hours worked for non-exempt employees will be calculated by using their FLSA recorded hours. For full-time exempt employees, hours will be calculated by multiplying 40 hours by the number of weeks worked. For part-time exempt employees, hours will be calculated by multiplying 20 hours by the number of weeks worked. Advocates for the collection of pay data argue that it will help identify and potentially narrow systemic pay gaps based on race, sex and ethnicity. How- ever, opponents have argued that W-2 wages will not adequately take into ac- count the nondiscriminatory aspects of pay, including shift differentials, ed- ucation, etc. It is imperative for foundries to start (or continue) gathering the relevant 2017 & 2018 wage and hour data and prepare it for submission by Septem- ber 30 th , as this process will take a fair amount of time. It is also important to note that the traditional EEO-1 sur- veys were due by May 31, 2019. NFFS Notes is a publication of the Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society © 2019. All rights reserved. 905 E. Chicago Road, Suite One, Sturgis, Michigan, 49091• Phone 847.299.0950 • www.nffs.org • info@nffs.org August 2019 A monthly publication for members of the Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society August 6, 2019 (New Date) NFFSummit Webinar: OSH Fundamentals – Heat Stress August 9 − 11, 2019 NFFS Executive Committee Meeting – Mackinac Island, Mich. October 830, 2019 NFFScholarship Application Deadline October 8 − 9, 2019 Lightweighting World Expo – Novi, Michigan October 18 − 19, 2019 NFFS Executive Committee and Board of Directors Meetings – San Antonio, Texas February 8 − 10, 2020 NFFS 2020 Industry Executive Conference – Wesley Chapel, Fl. For further information, go to: www.nffs.org/calendar. NFFS CALENDAR EEO-1 Labor Reporting Portal Now Open, September 30 th Data Submission Deadline FROM THE EEOC WEBSITE Notice of Immediate Reinstatement of Revised EEO-1: Pay Data Collection for Calendar Years 2017 and 2018 EEO-1 filers must submit Component 2 data for calendar year 2017, in addition to data for calendar year 2018, by September 30, 2019, as ordered by the District Court’s recent decision in National Women’s Law Center, et al., v. Office of Management and Budget, et al., Civil Action No. 17-cv-2458 (D.D.C.). Please note: Although the Department of Justice filed a Notice of Appeal in this lawsuit, that notice does not stay the District Court orders or alter EEO-1 filers’ obligations to submit 2017 and 2018 Component 2 data. EEO-1 filers should begin preparing to submit Component 2 data as described above.” EEO-1 Component 2 Fact Sheet https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/assets/documents/Comp2EEO1FactSheetFinal.pdf EEO-1 Component 2 Instruction Booklet https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/assets/documents/Comp2EEO1InstructionBook.pdf EEO-1 Component 2 FAQs https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/faq In addition, a Help Desk is available to offer support to employers completing the EEO-1. The contact information for the HelpDesk is as follows: Email: [email protected] Toll Free: 877-324-6214
Transcript
Page 1: EEO-1 Labor Reporting Portal Now Open, September 30 ... files/Publications...Under the new reporting requirements, employers must report earnings and hours data aggregated according

A federal judge ruled April 25th that all employers who are required to submit EEO-1 surveys on employee demo-graphic data to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) must also report employee pay data by Sep-tember 30, 2019.

This includes employers with at least 100 employees and federal contrac-tors with at least 50 employees and a contract of $50,000 or more with the federal government. The judge also ordered the EEOC to collect a second year of pay data. The agency was given a choice between collecting employers’ 2017 data with the 2018 pay data or waiting to collect 2019 pay data next year. The EEOC has decided to collect

the 2017 pay information as its sec-ond year of data. The Online Filing System for submitting employer data opened on July 15th, and is accessible at https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/login.

Under the new reporting requirements, employers must report earnings and hours data aggregated according to the EEO-1 job categories to which the employees are assigned for all employ-ees employed during a payroll period between October 1st and December 31st. For each EEO-1 job category, the employer must indicate the number of employees falling within each of the 12 pay bands by sex and race/ethnici-ty. Employers are required to use W-2 “Box 1” earnings to determine the pay band into which each employee falls. Additionally, for each EEO-1 job cat-egory, the employer must aggregate hours data for all employees in the pay band by sex and race/ethnicity. Hours worked for non-exempt employees will be calculated by using their FLSA

recorded hours. For full-time exempt employees, hours will be calculated by multiplying 40 hours by the number of weeks worked. For part-time exempt employees, hours will be calculated by multiplying 20 hours by the number of weeks worked.

Advocates for the collection of pay data argue that it will help identify and potentially narrow systemic pay gaps based on race, sex and ethnicity. How-ever, opponents have argued that W-2 wages will not adequately take into ac-count the nondiscriminatory aspects of pay, including shift differentials, ed-ucation, etc. It is imperative for foundries to start (or continue) gathering the relevant 2017 & 2018 wage and hour data and prepare it for submission by Septem-ber 30th, as this process will take a fair amount of time. It is also important to note that the traditional EEO-1 sur-veys were due by May 31, 2019.

NFFS Notes is a publication of the Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society © 2019. All rights reserved.905 E. Chicago Road, Suite One, Sturgis, Michigan, 49091• Phone 847.299.0950 • www.nffs.org • [email protected]

August 2019A monthly publication for members of the Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society

August 6, 2019 (New Date)NFFSummit Webinar: OSH Fundamentals – Heat Stress

August 9 − 11, 2019NFFS Executive Committee Meeting – Mackinac Island, Mich.October 830, 2019NFFScholarship Application Deadline

October 8 − 9, 2019Lightweighting World Expo – Novi, Michigan

October 18 − 19, 2019NFFS Executive Committee and Board of Directors Meetings – San Antonio, Texas

February 8 − 10, 2020NFFS 2020 Industry Executive Conference – Wesley Chapel, Fl.

For further information, go to: www.nffs.org/calendar.

NFFS CALENDAR

EEO-1 Labor Reporting Portal Now Open, September 30th Data Submission Deadline

FROM THE EEOC WEBSITE“Notice of Immediate Reinstatement of Revised EEO-1: Pay Data Collection for Calendar Years 2017 and 2018EEO-1 filers must submit Component 2 data for calendar year 2017, in addition to data for calendar year 2018, by September 30, 2019, as ordered by the District Court’s recent decision in National Women’s Law Center, et al., v. Office of Management and Budget, et al., Civil Action No. 17-cv-2458 (D.D.C.). Please note: Although the Department of Justice filed a Notice of Appeal in this lawsuit, that notice does not stay the District Court orders or alter EEO-1 filers’ obligations to submit 2017 and 2018 Component 2 data. EEO-1 filers should begin preparing to submit Component 2 data as described above.”

EEO-1 Component 2 Fact Sheet https://eeoccomp2.norc.org/assets/documents/Comp2EEO1FactSheetFinal.pdf

EEO-1 Component 2 Instruction Booklethttps://eeoccomp2.norc.org/assets/documents/Comp2EEO1InstructionBook.pdf

EEO-1 Component 2 FAQshttps://eeoccomp2.norc.org/faq

In addition, a Help Desk is available to offer support to employers completing the EEO-1. The contact information for the HelpDesk is as follows:Email: [email protected] Free: 877-324-6214

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GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

2018-19 NFFSBOARD OF DIRECTORS

PresidentChris Shanks*Ford Meter Box

Vice PresidentJay Armstrong*

Trialco, Inc.

TreasurerAndrew Iannettoni*

Ford Meter Box

Immediate Past PresidentGeorge Mugford*

Bunting Bearings LLC

DIRECTORSPaul ArmstrongArmstrong RM

Cathy DolanCalumet Brass Foundry

Chris GreenfieldFederal Metal Company

Rolf Gretschmann*Standard Manuf. Services

Bret MarkumAluminum Castings Corp.

John Mellone*Beck Aluminum Corp.

Allen MeskanMeskan Foundry

Jason MugfordBunting Bearings LLC

Kevin RuddockN.T. Ruddock

Chip ShamburgErie Bronze & Aluminum

Jim SpaldingStahl Specialty Co.

Bill SurmanI. Schumann & Co.

* = Executive Committee member

NFFS STAFFExecutive Director

Jerrod Weaver

ICON Program ManagerSheila Rayburn

Director of Membership & Communications

Erin Russell

Executive Meeting PlannerKristie Matusek

2

President Trump Participates in the USMCA Signing Ceremony. [State Department Photo by Ron Przysucha]

On July 23, 2019, the Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society joined more than 600 organizations calling on Congress to pass the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), an agree-ment designed to supersede the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which eliminated many tariffs and trade barriers between the three countries. Below is the full text of the letter:

“To the Members of the United States Con-gress:

On behalf of the undersigned business and agriculture organizations and chambers of commerce from across the United States, we are writing to urge you to support the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. USMCA is critical to our economic future because it will preserve and strengthen U.S. trade ties to Canada and Mexico.

More than 12 million American jobs depend on trade with Canada and Mexico. U.S. man-ufacturers export more made-in-America manufactured goods to our North Ameri-can neighbors than they do to the next 11 largest export markets combined, and the two countries account for nearly one-third of U.S. agricultural exports. They are also the top two export destinations for U.S. small and medium-size businesses, more than 120,000 of which sell their goods and services to Canada and Mexico.

Approval of USMCA will ensure U.S. man-ufacturers, farmers, and service providers can continue to access the Canadian and Mexican markets. The new pact guarantees

that virtually all U.S. exports will enter these markets tariff-free.

USMCA will also modernize North American trade rules. For example, when NAFTA wasnegotiated a quarter century ago, there was no e-commerce; consequently, the agree-ment did not address this sector. USMCA’s digital trade chapter sets a new, high stan-dard, as the agreement does in areas from intellectual property protection to trade in services.

By creating a level playing field for trade in North America, USMCA will help U.S. com-panies and the workers they employ com-pete in our top two export markets. The case for the agreement’s approval is strong. We urge Congress to approve USMCA as soon as possible.”

NFFS was joined by organizations including the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), the National Small Business Associ-ation, the Institute of Scrap Recycling Indus-tries (ISRI), and the Aluminum Association. To view the full list of signing organiza-tions, go to https://www.uschamber.com/letters-congress/coalition-letter-the-usmca.

Recent news from Washington indicates that progress is being made toward a deal between the Trump administration and Democrats that could garner Congressional approval, but as the 2020 election season nears, this could prove increasingly difficult.

For more information about the USMCA, go to https://ustr.gov/usmca.

NFFS Signs Joint Letter Urging Congress to Pass the USMCA

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3

GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

In March 2019, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) pub-lished a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Fed-eral Register that proposed changes to employee overtime pay exemptions under the Federal Labor Standards Act (FLSA). The NPRM proposed to formally rescind the Obama administration’s enjoined 2016 rule and suggested a new salary threshold for overtime exemption, increasing it from $23,660 a year to $35,308 a year, which would make more than a million additional American workers eligible for over-time. The DOL made its plans public in a March 8th draft, but the formal comment period couldn’t start until it was pub-lished in the Federal Register. DOL is aiming to finalize a rule in the Spring of 2020.

Other facets of the rule also remain the same as those in the draft. The NPRM proposes to allow employers to count nondiscretionary bonuses and incentive payments, including commissions, that are paid on annual or more frequent basis as up to 10% of an employee’s salary level for the purpose of determining overtime eligibility. The total annual compensa-tion requirement for highly compensated employees would be increased to $147,414 per year from the current $100,000. DOL also repeated a commitment to updating its salary lev-els every four years via notice-and-comment rulemaking.

For up-to-date information regarding overtime provisions of the FLSA, visit https://www.dol.gov/whd/overtime_pay.htm.

A Summary of the U.S. Department of Labor’s Proposed Overtime Law

DO YOU HAVE ALL YOUR PIECES OF THE RECRUITMENT PUZZLE COMPLETED?

FEF is shaping the metalcasting community in 2019 - graduating more than 100 trained engineering students into the industry from our world-class network of universities!

Become a partner with FEF and locate that last piece of your

recruitment puzzle!

Contact FEF at:www.fefinc.org | 847-490-9200 | [email protected]

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4

HEALTH & SAFETY

Prevent common avoidable injuries by applying ergonomics in the workplace.

“Ergonomics” comes from two Greek words: ergos, meaningwork, and nomos, meaning laws. Today ergonomics is defined as the science of designing the workplace to accommodate the worker. A Polish scientist and educator by the name of Wojciech Jatrzebowski first introduced ergonomics more than 150 years ago.

However, ergonomics principles were not widely used until World War II when keeping up with the fast pace of manufacturing war products, such as aircraft, radar and other items, created physical and psychological problems. Teams of engineers, psychologists, anthropologists and physiologists were brought together to help solve these problems. This was not recognized as ergonomics until much later. Instead, terms such as “engineering psychology” and “human engineering” were used.

The benefit of ergonomics is in the prevention of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). MSDs are soft tissue injuries that affect the muscles, nerves, blood vessels,ligaments and tendons. According to a 2016 News Release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), WMSDs account for nearly a third of all worker injury and illness cases annually.

According to OSHA, the primary risk factors for WMSDs are:• Exerting excessive force• Performing repetitive tasks• Working in awkward postures or the same posture for

long periods• Localized pressure to a body part• Vibration

These risk factors are exacerbated by cold temperatures andwhen risk factors are combined. The goal of a comprehensiveworkplace ergonomics program is to identify and eliminate these risk factors.

Corrective MeasuresApplying ergonomics principles in the workplace can be verybeneficial. Alleviating workplace stress results in improved productivity, efficiency and employee morale, as well as,

decreased lost work days, employee turnover, and decreasedworkers’ compensations claims and costs related to WMSDs.Investing in employee ergonomic awareness training is alsoimportant. Employees need to be trained on ergonomic issues to aid in identifying problem areas within their jobs. Employee participation is an excellent method of reducing ergonomic issues. Employees are on the front line and can often identify problem areas that could go unnoticed. Employee suggestions need to be acknowledged and taken seriously. The goal of employee participation is to stimulatethinking about problem solving, create and maintain interestin safety, and increase morale.

Employee training also needs to address the common risk factors for WMSDs and the importance of reporting their symptoms as early as possible. Early reporting is crucial to initiating corrective measures that can prevent permanent physical damage.

Employee EvaluationIt is important to evaluate the physical capacities of all employees. It’s not unusual to see a petite person lifting heavy objects from the floor to a location way over his/her head, while in the same area a very tall person will be sitting

Prevent Workplace Injuries with ErgonomicsExcerpt from an article provided by Grainger (www.grainger.com).

NON-FERROUS FOUNDERS’ SOCIETY

INTEGRATED CASTING ORDER NETWORK Connecting Foundries with custom Defense and Military related sales opportunities

In 2018...

5,570 contracts worth $163 millionwere awarded to ICON users!Learn more today at ICON.nffs.org

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5

HEALTH & SAFETY

Preventing Workplace Injuries, cont’d.at a small work station, hunched over trying to perform lightduty work. Obviously, in this situation, it would be betterto switch job responsibilities or incorporate some type of rotation. Although this may be an over-simplification, it doesshow the importance of considering the physical capacities of employees and placing them where they can perform most efficiently.

Ironically, many employers spend much more time examining the physical limitations of their machinery than their employees’ capacities. For example, if an employer is looking for a crane, an engineer would compare a variety ofcranes before making the final decision. The engineer wouldlook at all the cranes’ capabilities and limitations and learn about the maintenance schedule, maximum lifting capacities,turning radius, etc. Employees are long-term investments, too, and should receive similar treatment. After all, if a cranebreaks down, it can be fixed by replacing the defective part. Employees do not have that option, and quite often, never fully recover from injuries or illnesses.

Employers can supply their workers with ergonomically designed work tools, furniture and supplies and direct employees to use them per the manufacturer’s specifications.However, this is only the first step. It is very important to getindividual employee feedback. Each individual is different and each worker has their own history that may determine special requirements for ergonomic devices.

Regulatory IssuesOSHA published a final ergonomics program standard on November 14, 2000. The final rule addressed general-industry employers whose employees performed manufacturing or manual handling tasks. The standard 29 CFR 1910.900 was to go into effect January 16, 2001, but the rule was never implemented due to a differing in philosophies between presidential administrations. There currently is not a federalOSHA regulation specific to workplace ergonomics. OSHA can still cite employers under the General Duty Clause, for workplace conditions or practices that could or have causedWMSDs. Even though there is no ergonomic standard, employers are expected to proactively address WMSD risk factors.

OSHA has developed and is continuously updating its “Ergonomics” landing page on its website, www.osha.gov/SLTC/ergonomics. It’s a great resource for employers with links to all of the latest WMSD resources from both OSHA and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

Frequently Asked QuestionQ: When selecting a back support belt, is it better to go with a rigid-style belt or a soft elastic-style belt when lifting heavy objects?

A: In theory, although the elastic-style belts are generally more comfortable, rigid-style belts are supposed to increase intra-abdominal pressure, which in turn, should provide more support to the stomach/back muscles and vertebrae. It’s important to note that back support belts by themselves are not a solution to any WMSD risk factor. In fact, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) arrived at the following conclusion regarding the effectiveness of support belts: “After a review of the scientific literature, NIOSH has concluded that, because of limitations of the studies that have analyzed workplace use of back belts, the results cannot be used to either support or refute the effectiveness of back belts in injury reduction.” And many ergonomists suggest avoiding their use completely because they may encourage employees to lift more than they’re capable of safely handling.

Grainger sells a variety of ergonomically designed work tools, furniture and supplies to help employers reduce injuries in the workplace. Non-Ferrous Founders’ Society members receive discounts on these and thousands of other items available through Grainger. For more information, go to www.nffs.org/Grainger. If you are already a Grainger customer but not registered as a NFFS member, contact NFFS at 847-299-0950 to begin receiving your discounted pricing!

Send us Your News!Has your com-pany released a new product or hired a new key employee? Has someone from

your company been profiled in the media, celebrated an anni-versary, or won an award? Send us your press releases so that we can share your news with oth-er NFFS members and industry leaders. Photographs are en-couraged! The deadline for the next issue is August 30, 2019.

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6

MAKE YOUR MOVE™

If your industry is headed into a recession during this

business cycle, look for areas to reduce or cut costs.

Steep Rise Flat

Mild DeclineMild Rise

Steep Decline

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOTSArrow denotes 12-month moving

total/average direction

Retail Sales

Wholesale Trade

Auto Production

Manufacturing

Rotary Rig

Capital Goods

Nonresidential Construction

Residential Construction

INDUSTRY ECONOMIC ADVISOR

VOLUME 44JULY 2019 Published Monthly by ITR Economics™ for NFFS Members

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOKMACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

U.S. Total Industrial Production during the 12 months through May was up 3.3% from one year ago. All three segments of the industrial economy are trending along the back side of the business cycle. US Mining Production was up 12.7%, U.S. Total Manufacturing Production was up 2.1%, and U.S. Electric and Gas Utilities Produc-tion was up 1.3%. U.S. Industrial Production is unlikely to rise much further during this business cycle. Plan for activity to decline later this year and into next year.The manufacturing sector was a source of growth potential in recent quarters, but it will be an area of weakness through the remainder of this year and into next year. In particular, U.S. Metalworking Machinery New Orders and U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders are both expected to end 2019 below the 2018 level. The automotive industry is also likely to contract through the remainder of this year. US Defense Capital Goods New Orders, which rose at double-digit rates in recent quarters, will rise only mildly through the remainder of this year. U.S. Med-ical Equipment and Supplies Production will likely be an area of opportunity. Activity is expected to rise into early next year.For firms in the construction industry, we expect more opportunities this year in the nonresidential sector than in the residential sector. In particular, U.S. Private Manufacturing Con-struction is expected to grow at a double-digit rate in 2019, while U.S. Single-Unit Housing Starts and U.S. Multi-Unit Housing Starts are expected to finish 2019 be-low their respective 2018 levels.As the macroeconomic business cycle trends downward, keep near-term costs low. However, the next macroeconomic rising trend is around the corner, expect-ed to take hold by the middle of next year. Reevaluate your capital expenditure plans accordingly. Ensure you have enough cash to invest when the time comes.

ITR ECONOMICS’ LONG-TERM VIEW2019: Weaker Second Half 2020: Mild Growth 2021: Mild Growth

““The manufacturing sector was a source of

growth potential in recent quarters, but it will be an

area of weakness through the remainder of this year

and into next year.”

2Q19 3Q19 4Q19

ITR Leading Indicator™

ITR Consumer Activity Leading Indicator™

U.S. Leading Indicator

Purchasing Managers Index

U.S. Total Capacity Utilization Rate N/A

• The majority of our leading indicators suggest that the U.S. Industrial Production year-over-year rate-of-change will likely decline through the remainder of this year.

• The ITR Leading Indi-cator resumed decline after rising in recent months. It is too ear-ly to determine if the tentative March low will hold.

• The U.S. Total Capacity Utilization Rate tenta-tively ticked up in June, but more data is need-ed to determine if this is the start of a rising trend.

LEADING INDICATOR SNAPSHOT

Green denotes that the indicator signals cyclical rise for the economy in the given quarter. Red

denotes the opposite.

© 2019 ITR Economics™ - 603.796.2500 - www.itreconomics.com - All Rights Reserved

INVESTOR UPDATE

Stock prices rebounded in June after a weaker-than-typical May. However, it is too early to determine if

cyclical rise has taken hold.

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INDUSTRY ECONOMIC ADVISOR

7

To view the full July 2019 Industry Economic Advisor, as well as archived issues, log in and go to: www.nffs.org/EconAdvisor.

VOLUME 44JULY 2019 Published Monthly by ITR Economics™ for NFFS Members

A CLOSER LOOK: Trade

When it comes to U.S. trade, the perception I tend to encounter is that imports are all that matter. “The U.S. doesn’t make anything anymore,” I often hear, or “We buy everything from China.” These common maxims are likely derived from the fact that we have a perpetual trade deficit.

However, this line of thinking is incorrect. As we learned in last month’s ITR Advisor™, U.S. manufacturing is quite robust. Not only do we create a tremendous amount of products here, we also sell a tremendous number of those products overseas. For this reason, trade wars can cut both ways, potentially harming U.S. exporters as much as we harm the targets of our tariffs and trade barriers. While it is impossible to assign exact percentages, the global wave of protectionism headlined by the U.S.-China trade conflict appears to be taking a toll, with global economic activity on the back side of the business cycle and key global and U.S. export trends moving in a negative direction.

Total U.S. Exports to the World amount to roughly 8.8% of the overall U.S. economy as measured by U.S. Gross Domestic Product. At face value, a small slice of the pie, but to cast it as irrelevant would be a mistake. On a dollar basis, the U.S. export-ed $1.67 trillion in goods during the most recent 12 months, making us the world’s second-largest goods exporter, behind only China. While we may import more than we export, the export side of the equation is relevant to the U.S. economy.

The U.S. Exports trend is moving in a negative direction. U.S. Total Goods Exports during the most recent three months totaled $414.0 billion, down 0.5% from the same period a year ago. This is the first time quarterly Exports have contracted year-over-year since late 2016. The Exports quarterly growth rate typically leads Production through the business cycle by four months and is clearly indicating ongoing downward pressure on the growth rate for the U.S. economy. In fact, post-2000, every time the U.S. Exports trend has moved into negative territory, U.S. Industrial Production has followed suit. The struggling U.S. Exports trend is likely due to a combination of the strengthening U.S. dollar, the simmering U.S. trade conflict with China, and weaker global demand stemming from anemic growth amongst most other advanced economies.

The trend lines look worse outside the U.S. World Industrial Production was up 2.4% during the most recent 12 months and decelerating; the current growth rate for U.S. Industrial Production is 3.3%. A look to Hong Kong Air Freight, a bellwether for global trade volumes, points to a rather unsettling trajectory for the global economy through the rest of this year. Hong Kong Air Freight Volume during the second quarter came in 8.2% below the second quarter of 2018. This portends further deceleration in the World Industrial Production trend into at least early 2020.

As U.S. Exports activity goes, the broader U.S. trend lines tend to follow, and slowing or contracting trade activity across much of the globe points to a difficult second half of the year ahead. Living in a globalized economy for quite some time, we often take for granted the importance and value of trade. It allows countries to specialize, creates jobs while raising standards of living, facilitates economic development, and encourages the international competition that ultimately delivers the consum-er the highest quality goods and services at the lowest prices. It is important for the U.S. and the rest of the world that the current downswing in trade prove only a symptom of the current business cycle rather than the beginning of a long-term shift away from the global trade system.

Slowing Trade Creating Drag on U.S. and Global EconomiesBy: Connor Lokar

READER’S FORUM

Why did the stock market fall after the latest jobs report? The jobs-added number was supposedly better than expected. The market later rebounded, but I don’t understand why the jobs report was bad news.

Generally speaking, the June jobs report was good news for the economy. The higher-than-anticipated number of jobs added suggests that companies are still looking to expand and that there are still workers to hire. However, this jobs report created a strange situation wherein good news for the economy was actually bad news for investors. Investors were expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in response to recent slowing economic growth, but the stronger-than-anticipated job growth weakened the case for cuts. The stock market has since rebounded, assisted by hints from Chairman Jerome Powell that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates this month despite the job growth number. However, if job growth continues to exceed expectations going forward, the chances of a second cut later this year will fall. Businesses should not view this jobs report as bad news, but they should be mindful that a second cut is not a given.

James Giles, Economist at ITR Economics™, answers:

What you need to know: While exports are not a dominant part of the US economy, the US is still the world’s second-largest exporter, and the slowdown in US and global trade is likely to cause pain in the second half of 2019.

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HEALTH & SAFETY

8

OSH Fundamentals: Heat StressDate: Tuesday, August 6, 2019 (New Date)Time: 2:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. CT)Cost: FREE for NFFS membersPresenter: Martha Guimond, Joseph A. Guimond & Associates

Many people are exposed to heat on the job. Oper-ations involving high air temperatures, radiant heat sources (e.g., sunlight, hot exhaust), high humidity, direct physical contact with hot objects, or strenuous physical activities—such as foundries—have a high potential for causing preventable heat-related illness.

Join NFFS for a brief review of your responsibilities to provide worker protections against heat stress, heat stroke, and other heat related conditions.

Register: https://www.nffs.org/event/NFFSummit0819

NFFSummit Webinar

Induction Melting Systems For Your Nonferrous Needs

www.inductotherm.com • 609-267-9000 • [email protected]

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) will join businesses and organizations nationwide to recognize the importance and successes of workplace safety and health programs during Safe + Sound Week, August 12-18, 2019. The week-long event encourages employers to implement workplace safety initiatives, and highlight workers’ contributions to improving safety. Businesses that incorporate safety and health programs can help prevent injuries and illnesses, reduce workers’ compensation costs, and improve productivity.

“Leadership commitment matters and demonstrates workplace safety is a priority,” said Acting Assistant Secretary of Labor for Occupational Safety and Health Loren Sweatt. “Safe + Sound Week reminds employers that safety and health programs help businesses save money, eliminate injuries, and most importantly save lives.”

Organizations of any size or in any industry looking for an opportunity to show their commitment to safety to workers, customers, the public, or supply chain partners should participate. Learn more about how to help plan and promote safety and health plans at www.osha.gov/safeandsoundweek.

U.S. Department of Labor Kicks Off SAFE + SOUND Week on August 12From a news release of the U.S. Department of Labor (https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/osha/osha20190722).


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