EFA-Climate Change v3

8/3/2019 EFA-Climate Change v3

1/32

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)EugeneEugene AraulloAraullo, PEE, PEE

3636thth IIEE Annual National Convention, PICCIIEE Annual National Convention, PICC

Page 1 of 32

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file

Nov 25, 2011

36th IIEE Annual National Convention

Philippine International Convention Center

November 25, 2011

Eugene F. Araullo, PEE, PMP, CDCP, ITIL

Climate Change(Impact and Design Consideration)

Economic Development through Clean & Affordable Electricity

Learn and discover

What is climate change, the risks and their impacts to our

environment, infrastructure and people

Other environmental or natural hazards

The industry and engineering challenges as a result of

climate change

Trends, opportunities and recommendations

In this Session


2/32



Page 2 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change Risks and Impacts

Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios

The Industry & Engineering Challenge


Our Roadmap





Our Roadmap


3/32



Page 3 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Climate change a change of climate which is attributed directly orindirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the

global atmosphere and which is in addition to the natural climate

variability observed over comparable time periods. by United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Human activities that had increased concentration of

greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, including

carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, and

nitrous oxide

Climate Change - definition

Our complacency and lack of

understanding of the delicate

balance in nature

Desertification or overgrazing

Excessive Logging/

deforestation

Air/water Pollution

Lack of care to environment

Priorities andinterest

Why is this happening?

the need to produce more to support growing population and

improving lifestyle


4/32



Page 4 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Increased surface temperatures

Melting of permafrost, sea ice & glaciers (which speeds global warming)

Rises in sea levels

Changes in precipitation

Increases in intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves,

tornadoes, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall

Longer, more severe droughts

Expansion of subtropical deserts

Species endangerment, extinction and loss of biodiversity

Drops in agricultural yields

Spread of vector-borne diseases because of increased range of insects

Acidification of oceans - drops in fishing yields and death of coral reefs

Climate Change Effects Summary

Heavy impacts on developing nations

Magnifies existing inequalities

Poor communities become more vulnerable,

especially in climate high risk areas

Displacement due to floods

Hunger/malnutrition and limited access to clean and

safe water

Livelihood/assets destroyed

Health impacts

Increase poverty level

Climate Change the Human Issue


5/32



Page 5 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change

10

Source: PAGASASource: PAGASA--DOSTDOST

Hydro-Meteorological Hazard

Typhoons

Floods

Landslide

Liquefaction


6/32



Page 6 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Tropical depression 039 mph 062 km/h Category 3 111130 mph 178209 km/h

Tropical storm 3973 mph 63117 km/h Category 4 131155 mph 210249 km/h

Category 1 7495 mph 119153 km/h



Unknown

Pacific Typhoon Incidences (2009)

Source: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), Tropical Storm Risk Consortium

22 Typhoons; 5ST

Emong 120 kph (May6)

Kiko 140 kph, (Aug 3)

Ondoy - 150 kph (Sep 25)

Pepeng 185 kph (Oct 3)

Santi 150 kph (Oct 27)







Unknown



14 Typhoons; 1ST

Basyang 130 kph (July 13)

Caloy, - 130 kph (July 17)

Juan - 230 kph (Oct 13)


7/32



Page 7 of 32


Nov 25, 2011







Unknown



20 Typhoons; 4ST

Chedeng 195 kph (May 24)

Juaning - 95 kph (July 27)

Mina - 185 kph (Aug 23)

Pedring 150 kph (Sep 25)

Quiel 175 kph (Sep 29)

Areas vulnerable to ClimateChange/Global Warming: Rising

Sea levels

And Flooding


8/32



Page 8 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Extreme Hazard

Maximum Exposure High Vulnerability

Sources: Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Celine Vicente,

Dr. Fernando Siringan*, Dr. Mahar Lagmay**

and Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga,

Manila Observatory, Philippines

Case: Ondoy (Sept 2009)


9/32



Page 9 of 32


Nov 25, 2011





Our Roadmap


10/32



Page 10 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

19

Source: PHILVOCSSource: PHILVOCS

Other Hazards Seismic Origin (addl)

Earthquake

Tsunami Landslide

Liquefaction

Philippines

20

The Ring of Fire


11/32



Page 11 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE

West Valley

Fault

Manila

TrenchModel Magnitude Characteristics

08 WestValley Fault

7.2 Severe Damage

13 ManilaTrench

7.9 Tsunami(2m high)

Metro Manila Seismic Threats

22

MARIKINA

QUEZON CITYVALENZUELA

SAN JUAN

MUNTINLUPA

TAGUIG

PATEROS

PASIGMANILA

PARANAQUE

LAS PINAS

PASAY

MANDALUYONG

CAL. SOUTH

NAVOTASMALABON

CALOOCAN

NORTH

MAKATI

Source: Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS)

JICA-PHIVOLCS-MMDA

9

Intensity (MMI)

8

7

6

5

VIII - Very Destructive

IX - Devastating

(Magnitude 7.2,

West Valley Fault)

Intensity Distribution


12/32



Page 12 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

23

1 - 20

20 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 500

500 - 3000Source: MMEIRS

Building Damage Estimate

24

High

Relatively High

Relatively Low

Low

QUEZON CITY

VALENZUELA

SAN JUAN

MARIKINA

MUNTINLUPA

TAGUIG

PATEROS

PASIGMANILA

PARANAQUE

LAS PINAS

PASAY

MANDALUYONG

CAL. SOUTH

NAVOTAS

MALABON

CALOOCAN

NORTH

MAKATI

Liquefaction Potential

Source: MMEIRS


13/32



Page 13 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

25

Maximum BurntNumber

500 1,000

200 - 500

100 - 200

50 - 100

20 - 50

1 - 20

500 Fires may occursimultaneously

Factor Used: Wind Speed = 8m/sec

Estimated Results: Area = 1,710 has.Building: 98,000

Deaths = 19,000

PATEROS

PASIG

TAGIG

MUNTINLUPA

MARIKINA

MANILA

VALENZUELA

QUEZON CITY

MANILA

Fire Outbreak Potential

Source: MMEIRS

26

Possible Regional Separation

Source: JICA Study/ MMEIRS

Earthquake Impact:

(Model 08 West

Valley Fault)


14/32



Page 14 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

The Need to be Prepared !

Unavoidable/unfavorable events (calamities) are

realities and givens.

It will definitely affect our:

Energy Security (availability, reliability & cost)

Facility and other property or assets

Safety, Security and Quality of Life

HAZARD RISK

POTENTIALVULNERABILITY

DISASTER

=

Climate Change is real andhappening now; dont wait!

Be the change engineers!


15/32



Page 15 of 32


Nov 25, 2011





Our Roadmap

Generation Transmission Distribution Supply

Electric Power Industry

Environmental Issues: Climate change, pollution and other natural hazards.

Social & Economic Issues: Fuel cost, food cost, inflation, unemployment, etc.

Regulatory Issues: Compliance & Reportorial requirements, etc.

Suppliers, Contractors, Market, Business and Consumers

The Industry Challenge


16/32



Page 16 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Electric Power System

Courtesy of PG&E Company, California, USA

This will be

affected too!

Engineering Design Process (Product Dev)

Define the Problem Problem identification

Business requirements

Gather Data Information search

Surveys / research

Generate Solutions Benefits/Cost

Options

Select a Solution Functional/technical Comml Feasibility

Safety/liability

Market acceptance

Regulatory compliant

Test/Implement Proto-typing

QC/QA

Documentation

Criteria orspecifications

Constraints or

limitations

Engineering Design Consideration

The need to expand our

POVs and

understanding of future

impact


17/32



Page 17 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Engineering Design Process (Utility/Facility)

Criteria or

specifications

Constraints or

limitations

Define the Problem Problem identification

Business requirements

Planning Data gathering & surveys

Planning & organizing

Design Options & alternatives

Specifications / drawings

Cost / benefits

Construction Site development

Civil, mechanical,

electrical, architectural

works, etc.

Regulatory compliance

Testing & Commissioning QC/QA

Documentation

Operation & Maintenance Monitoring

Preventive/Corrective measures

Engineering Design Consideration

The need to expand ourPOVs and

understanding of future

impact

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

World energy demand increases an average rate of increase of 1.6% per

year with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

Is it sustainable?

Worlds Primary Energy Demand

Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency


18/32



Page 18 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Non-OECD OECD

All other fuels

Coal

Shares of incremental energy demand

Reference Scenario, 2008 - 2030

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source!

Increase in primary demand, 2000 - 2007

Mtoe

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear

4.8%

1.6%2.6%

2.2%

0.8%

% = average annual rate of growth

Coal as Primary Source of Energy


0

50

100

150

200

250

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Rest of

renewables

GW

Non-OECD

OECD

Total = 613 GW

Over 600 GW of power-generation capacity currently under construction

worldwide with target operation by 2015

Ongoing Power Generation Construction



19/32


20/32


21/32



Page 21 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Oil, Gas, Other Reserves Summary

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007-2010

Proven reserves:

Coal: 905 billion metric tonnes; 4,416 billion barrels oil

equivalentOil: 1,200 billion barrels

Natural gas: 6,289 Trillion cubic feet; 1,161 billion

barrels oil equivalent

Average Daily Production:

Coal: 16.7 Million metric tonnes; 52 million barrels

equivalent

Oil: 84-86 Million barrels / day

Natural gas: 115.4 Trillion cubic feet; 19 Million barrels

oil equivalent

Reserve to last from now:

Coal: 143 years

Oil: 38 yearsNatural gas: 56 years

2007 2020

Gt rank Gt rank

China 6.1 1 10.0 1

USA 5.8 2 5.8 2

EU27 4.0 3 3.9 3

Russia 1.6 4 1.9 5

India 1.3 5 2.2 4

The top 5 emitters account for 70% of world emissions; China overtook the USA as the

largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the fourth largest before 2020

Worlds Top CO2 Emitters



22/32



Page 22 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Energy Related CO2 Emission

Source: Environmental Protection Agency & EIA

Fossil Fuel Emission Levels- Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input

Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Coal

Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000

Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208

Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457

Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591

Particulates 7 84 2,744

Mercury 0.000 0.007 0.016

Source: EIA - Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998

Fossil Fuel Emission Levels- Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input

Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Coal

Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000

Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208

Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457

Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591

Particulates 7 84 2,744

Mercury 0.000 0.007 0.016

Source: EIA - Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998

Energy efficiency accounts for the most of the savings

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gigatonnes

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

CCS

Renewables & biofuels

Nuclear

Energy efficiency

550Policy

Scenario

450Policy

Scenario

54%

23%

14%

9%

Reduction on Energy Related CO2



23/32



Page 23 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

550 Policy Scenario

Corresponds to a c.3C global

temperature rise

Energy demand continues to

expand, but fuel mix is markedly

different

CO2 price in OECD countries

reaches $90/tonne in 2030

Additional investment equal to

0.25% of GDP

450 Policy Scenario

Corresponds to a c.2C global

temperature rise

Energy demand grows, but half as

fast as in Reference Scenario

Rapid deployment of low-carbon

technologies

Big fall in non-OECD emissions

CO2 price in 2030 reaches

$180/tonne

OPEC production almost 13mb/d

higher in 2030 than today

Additional investment equal to

0.6% of GDP

Climate Change Policy Targets


Energy and geopolitics are highly interconnected. We need todo our share now

The need to decarbonize the worlds energy system to addressour energy security and human survival

The need to closely collaborate with the other engineeringdisciplines, city planners, government agencies and concerned

private entities to mitigate the risks and hazards

Always consider Mother Earth in engineering!

Summary


24/32


25/32



Page 25 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Renewable energy GW equivelants Globally

Hydropower Lg & Small,

843.0

Biomass heating, 235.0

Solar hot water, 105.0

Wind Turbines, 100.0

Biomass power, 45.0

Ethanol, 39.0

Geothermal heating,

33.0

Geothermal power, 9.5

Biodiesel bln litres, 6.0

Solar PV , 7.8

Solar CSP, 0.4

Ocean Power, 0.3

0 200 400 600 800 1000

The most well known Solar &

wind growing at 35-50% yr

10x / 7 yrs

RE


26/32



Page 26 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Sweden is aiming for 60% renewables by 2020.

Estimates have shown that UK could have a 100% wind supply

due to geography

Denmark already gets 20% of its electricity from Wind.

This country just signed a deal for 15% of power 120mw of

wind.

This country established RE Act 2008, RPS, Net Metering andadopted a feed-in tariff policy

Renewable Policy Direction

Source: Worldwatch Institute

Wind cheap 30% availability

Renewable Energy - Wind


27/32



Page 27 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

World solar PV installations 2007 m easu red in

Gigawatts

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Germany

Japan

United States

Spain

Italy

Australia

South Korea

World total

Source: w ikipedia, w w w .gogerty.com

1:1,600 of total global

power

Renewable Energy - Solar

Philippines Share

Source: 1st Semester 2011, DOE


28/32



Page 28 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Philippines RE Targets (2011 2030)

Source: 1st Semester 2011, DOE

Oil Biomass Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

Primary Energy

Liquids

Mobility

Final Energy

Consumer

Choices

Energy

Energy

Buildings

Power

Generation

Opportunities & Megatrends

Direct combustion

Industry and

Manufacturing

Energy


29/32



Page 29 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Key technologies:

Renewables

Clean coal technology & CCS

Natural gas

Smart grid / meters

Combines energy generation systems

Key directions:

Decarbonisation

GHG emissions management

Energy efficiency improvements

Electriticy as a preferred domestic and

commercial final energy source


Power Generation & Manufacturing

Key directions:

New more efficient/smart vehicles

Broadening the range and type of fuels

Changing the way we use mobility

Mass transportation

Key technologies:

Hybrids and electric (drive trains & batteries)

2nd generation biofuels, synthetic diesels, electricity.

Integrated public / private transport mechanisms

Hydrogen

Opportunities & MegatrendsMobility


30/32



Page 30 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Key directions:

Energy standards and codes for buildings,

appliances and lighting.

Focus on building materials and their

lifecycle emissions.

Innovation in building design with focus on

energy efficiency and environment

conservation (LEED)

Education programs for operators and

users/tenants.


Buildings



31/32



Page 31 of 32


Nov 25, 2011

Tonnes Carbonp.a.A family of four:Semi-detached house 1.57

And has installed:Insulat ion & double glazing -0 .22Efficient lighting -0.09Solar heat ing & electricity -0 .26A ground-sourced heat pump -0.59

And also:Uses smart appliances -0.11Adjusts the thermostat -0.04Switches off lights/appliances -0.06

Drives one car:A hybrid, 10,000 kms 0.23

And makes extensive use of alternative transport

Travels regionally by air on vacation:

~5 short-haul trips 0.32

Also produces waste 0.25but recycles where possible -0 .15

0.85 tonnes p.a.

Tonnes Carbonp.a.A family of four:Large house and lot 2.57+ Extra air-conditioning 0.04

+ Heated swimming pool 1.48

But could install:Insulation & double glazing -0.9Efficient lighting -0.13Solar heating & electricity -0.34

And could also:Use smart appliances -0.16Adjust the thermostat -0.18Switch off lights -0.31

Drives two cars:A large SUV, 20, 000 km s 1. 42A regular sedan, 15,000 kms 0.78

And travels by air regularly:~15 short-haul trips 0.73~ 8 long-haul trips 2.38

Also produces waste 0.25But could recycle some -0.15

9.65 tonnes p.a.

Source: www.bp.com/carbonfootprint

Waste

Air travel

Car travel

Household

Opportunities & MegatrendsConsumer Choice

Opportunities are here BUT always think of the wholeecosystem Environment, People and overall Economicimpact.

Re-engineer current practices; collaborate with the otherengineering disciplines, city planners, government agencies andconcerned private entities in the planning, engineering,operation/maintenance of our infrastructure.

Save our Mother Earth!

Summary & Recommendations


32/32



36th IIEE Annual National Convention

Philippine International Convention Center

November 25, 2011

Eugene F. Araullo, PEE, PMP, CDCP, ITIL

Climate Change(Impact and Design Consideration)

Economic Development through Clean & Affordable Electricity

Date post:	06-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	ryan-jay
View:	219 times
Download:	0 times

EFA-Climate Change v3

Documents