Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty

Presented at The Partnership Summit 2012, CII 13 Jan 2012, Hyderabad

AVR Kesava Rao and Suhas P Wani

Contents

• Global warming and climate change

• Impacts on Agriculture

• CC Adaptation - ICRISAT’s experience

• Way forward

Challenges Humanity is Facing in 21st Century

Challenges Humanity is Facing in 21st Century

Correlations Energy securityEnergy security

Foodsecurity

Foodsecurity

Climate changeClimate change

Trad

e-off

Consequences

337

24

596

384Sub-

Saharan Africa 384 M

Sub-Saharan Africa 384 M

East Asia and Pacific

334 M

East Asia and Pacific

334 M

South Asia596 M

South Asia596 M

Central Asia 24 M

(28.7%) (25%)

(44.5%)

(1.8%)

The poor half billion in South Asia

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank 2009. Note: Number of people living on less than US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices. South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. East Asia Pacific includes China.

• Fastest growing economy

• At a far more advanced stage of development than Sub-Saharan Africa

• Yet, home for largest concentration of poor people

• Stupendous growth hides deep pockets of poverty

• A depressing paradox

Global Warming Global Warming

Warming trends since 1979 show:

• Warming everywhere at surface except in eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and parts of Antarctica

India: Warmest Year 2010

Source: IMD, 2011

• Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average

• 2010 is the warmest year on record since 1901

• Pre- Monsoon season (March-May) mean temperature was 1.8 °C above normal

• Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average

• 2010 is the warmest year on record since 1901

• Pre- Monsoon season (March-May) mean temperature was 1.8 °C above normal

Data source: IMD

India – Rainfall variability

Natural Catastrophes

The Big Threat The Big Threat

A perfect storm:

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Irregularities in water availability

Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda, AP

After 1978, climate slowly tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days

Popular varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times

Unprecedented rains in AP during 10-11 Jan 2012

• 0.49 million hectares crops have been affected

• Estimated loss is Rs. 7 billion

• On 11 Jan, Kavali in Nellore district 169 mm

Harvested paddy floating in flood water

Wet BlackgramFlood water affects color of chillies

Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences

Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences

The only Global R&D Organizationfor Semi-Arid Agriculture

Mission is toReduce poverty, hunger, malnutrition and

environmental degradation in the dryland tropics

Rainfed Potential Yields and Yield Gaps of Selected Crops in

India

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Soybean Groundnut Pigeonpea Chickpea

Yie

ld (

kg h

a-1

)

Max. rainfed potential

Mean rainfed potential

District Mean

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Kharif sorghum Rabi sorghum Pearl millet

Yie

ld (

kg h

a-1

)

Max. rainfed potential

Mean rainfed potential

District Mean

Legumes Sorghum and pearl millet

Climate Change: ICRISAT’s Hypothesis of Hope

Short-duration chickpea cultivars that can withstand high temperatures

Super-earlyICC 96029,75-80 days

Extra-earlyICCV 2,

85-90 days

Early maturingKAK 2,

90-95 days

Resilient crops for the poor

• Developed through cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) system

• Wilt resistant and high yielding with farmers earning 80% higher than those growing traditional varieties

ICPH 2671: World’s first pigeonpea hybrid

Crop improvement

570 improved varieties developed by ICRISAT and partners, released in 171 countries

Community watersheds

Use of new science tools

A holistic participatory approach

Continuous monitoring and evaluation

Linked on-station and Off-station

Empowerment of community and stakeholders

Mix of individual and community-based interventions

Consortium for technical backstopping

Integrated Watershed Management to Build Resilience of Natural Resources

and Communities

Integrated Watershed Management to Build Resilience of Natural Resources

and Communities

Chickpea revolution in AP

Kabuli chickpea: increased area 6-fold and production 13-fold in 15 years in Andhra Pradesh, India

Opportunities to bridge yield gaps

Bhoochetana Project, Karnataka, Kharif 2010

Equity and Efficiency to Protect Economy and Environment

Equity and Efficiency to Protect Economy and Environment

EfficiencyEfficiency

EquityEquity

Environment

Environment

EconomyEconomy

Adaptation &

Mitigation Strategies

Adaptation &

Mitigation Strategies

Way forward

Global warming tolerance thresholds not too far, adaptation + mitigation approach crucial

Climate Change has no respect for borders and affects all: Ban-Ki-Moon

Diversification of livelihood options, a good adaptation strategy

Harness potential of IWM through holistic approach to enhance crop productivity by 2-3 folds

Global warming tolerance thresholds not too far, adaptation + mitigation approach crucial

Climate Change has no respect for borders and affects all: Ban-Ki-Moon

Diversification of livelihood options, a good adaptation strategy

Harness potential of IWM through holistic approach to enhance crop productivity by 2-3 folds

Way forward

Improved agromet advisory services and weather insurance packages

Enabling policies and institutions for improving access to credit and insurance markets to the rural poor, particularly the women

Agriculture must play a key-role in climate solutions

Improved agromet advisory services and weather insurance packages

Enabling policies and institutions for improving access to credit and insurance markets to the rural poor, particularly the women

Agriculture must play a key-role in climate solutions

Contd..

A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions…

Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures

Thank you!