Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality
TERI, New Delhi
Scope
Traffic congestion and Traffic congestion and pollution pollution
Older fleetsOlder fleets
Sprawling citiesSprawling cities
Smaller cities- even less Smaller cities- even less managedmanaged
Upcoming cities-PanjimUpcoming cities-Panjim
Different types and usage of vehiclesDifferent types and usage of vehicles
• Unregistered vehicles• Overloading• Limited maintenance
Debate
• Contribution of vehicular sector
• Which vehicles for which pollutants
• Road map for future norms
• Effect on air quality
Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ?
Do we need to continually advance them ?
What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ?
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TERI integrated modelling approach
Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health
Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi
Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections (2010-2030)
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Scenario analysis
Scenario Description BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government
without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities
ALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V
in 2020 ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI
in 2020
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Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms
Scenario DescriptionBAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any
further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 citiesALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020
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Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)
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Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario
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Benefits could be larger ..
• Health impacts of only PM • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or
synergistically aggravate the impacts
• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants
• Climate benefits are additional• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon
concentrations too
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• Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector
• City: Bangalore
• Air quality model – CMAQ
• Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²)• PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs
• Meteorological fields – WRF models runs
• Boundary conditions- from National scale runs
• Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)
City level analysisSumit Sharma, V. Ramanathan
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Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study
• Total pollution load
• PM10 - 54.4 T/d
• NOX – 217.4 T/d
• SO2 – 14.6 T/d
PM10
Transport42%
Road Dust20%
Domestic 3%
DG Set7%
Industry14%
Hotel0%
Construction14%
NOx
Transport68%
Domestic 1%
DG Set23%
Hotel0%Industry
8%
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Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear)
Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore
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Model comparison
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Future projections
• Future year 2030
• Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans
• Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands
• Domestic sector projections based on population growth • Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current
• BAU scenario• Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current
levels • Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions
caused by incerased number of vehicles
• ALT scenario • BS-VI introduced from 2020• Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.
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Future projections : Effect on air quality
• 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations• Many areas start meeting the standards
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Future projections : EC also reduced . may affect the local climate
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Conclusions
• Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions
• Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both National and urban scales
• A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.
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Thanks