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Effect of the Women’s Health Initiative on Osteoporosis Therapy and Expenditure in Medicaid Jacob A Udell, 1,2 Michael A Fischer, 1 M Alan Brookhart, 1 Daniel H Solomon, 1,3 and Niteesh K Choudhry 1 ABSTRACT: Decreasing HRT use among postmenopausal women may have a reciprocal impact on other osteoporosis therapy. Time series analysis of prescribing trends for millions of Medicaid beneficiaries revealed a 57% decline in HRT without augmenting the pace of bisphosphonate use. Prescribing changes dramatically increased Medicaid spending on osteoporosis therapy over the last decade and requires further evaluation of cost effectiveness. Introduction: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been commonly prescribed to postmenopausal women, but its use is decreasing because adverse cardiac outcomes were reported by the Women ´ s Health Initiative (WHI) in July 2002. The reciprocal impact of the WHI on other osteoporosis medications use and expenditure is unknown. Materials and Methods: We conducted a time series analysis on prescription data from 50 state Medicaid programs between 1995 and 2004. Five medication categories were used: HRT, bisphosphonates, calcium, calcitonin, and raloxifene. Results: HRT was increasing before publication of the WHI, reaching 5 million prescriptions per year by mid-2002 (136 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries). Bisphosphonate prescribing rose in parallel until mid- 2002. WHI publication was associated with a rapid reduction in HRT use, declining 57% by mid-2004 to an average of 59 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries (p 0.01). WHI publication did not augment bisphospho- nates’ nearly linear rate of rise (p 0.43) as their prescribing pace continued, whereas HRT declined. Medicaid spending on osteoporosis therapy also changed dramatically during the last decade, as yearly expenditure increased 664% from $1465 to $9742 per 1000 beneficiaries. Over this period, a significant shift from daily to weekly bisphosphonates also occurred. Conclusions: A dramatic decline in HRT and continued rise in bisphosphonate prescribing has occurred since the publication of the WHI. During this time, there have also been substantial increases in osteoporosis medication spending within Medicaid. Determining whether these trends are clinically appropriate and cost effective for osteoporosis therapy will have important implications for the development of future drug reim- bursement programs, especially for elderly patients. J Bone Miner Res 2006;21:765–771. Published online on January 30, 2006; doi: 10.1359/JBMR.060119 Key words: estrogen, bisphosphonate, osteoporosis, Medicaid, women’s health INTRODUCTION O STEOPOROSIS IS ASSOCIATED with significant morbidity and mortality and imposes a substantial economic burden on the health care system. (1–3) Unfortunately, os- teoporosis therapy is often underused in high-risk pa- tients. (4,5) Until the publication of the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) in July 2002, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) was a common pharmacologic approach to osteoporosis treatment in the United States. (6–10) The WHI showed that HRT use increased the risk of breast cancer, cardiovascular disease, and dementia, despite its benefit in osteoporosis prevention. (11) Accordingly, substantial reductions in HRT use have been documented. (12–19) Little is known about the reciprocal impact of the WHI and subsequent revisions to HRT recommendations (20,21) on the use of other drug treatments for osteoporosis. We analyzed data from state Medicaid programs to evaluate the effect of the WHI on trends in osteoporosis drug use and expenditure. We hypothesized that reductions in HRT use should be accompanied by accelerated increases in the Dr Solomon receives salary support from Merck and Proctor and Gamble for unrelated activities. All other authors state that they have no conflicts of interest. 1 Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; 2 Department of Medicine, Vancouver Hospital and Health Sciences Centre and University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 3 Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. JOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCH Volume 21, Number 5, 2006 Published online on January 30, 2006; doi: 10.1359/JBMR.060119 © 2006 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research 765
Transcript
Page 1: Effect of the Women’s Health Initiative on Osteoporosis Therapy … › nkc › files › 2006_whi_impact_on... · Effect of the Women’s Health Initiative on Osteoporosis Therapy

Effect of the Women’s Health Initiative on Osteoporosis Therapy andExpenditure in Medicaid

Jacob A Udell,1,2 Michael A Fischer,1 M Alan Brookhart,1 Daniel H Solomon,1,3 and Niteesh K Choudhry1

ABSTRACT: Decreasing HRT use among postmenopausal women may have a reciprocal impact on otherosteoporosis therapy. Time series analysis of prescribing trends for millions of Medicaid beneficiaries revealeda 57% decline in HRT without augmenting the pace of bisphosphonate use. Prescribing changes dramaticallyincreased Medicaid spending on osteoporosis therapy over the last decade and requires further evaluation ofcost effectiveness.

Introduction: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been commonly prescribed to postmenopausalwomen, but its use is decreasing because adverse cardiac outcomes were reported by the Womens HealthInitiative (WHI) in July 2002. The reciprocal impact of the WHI on other osteoporosis medications use andexpenditure is unknown.Materials and Methods: We conducted a time series analysis on prescription data from 50 state Medicaidprograms between 1995 and 2004. Five medication categories were used: HRT, bisphosphonates, calcium,calcitonin, and raloxifene.Results: HRT was increasing before publication of the WHI, reaching 5 million prescriptions per year bymid-2002 (136 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries). Bisphosphonate prescribing rose in parallel until mid-2002. WHI publication was associated with a rapid reduction in HRT use, declining 57% by mid-2004 to anaverage of 59 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries (p � 0.01). WHI publication did not augment bisphospho-nates’ nearly linear rate of rise (p � 0.43) as their prescribing pace continued, whereas HRT declined.Medicaid spending on osteoporosis therapy also changed dramatically during the last decade, as yearlyexpenditure increased 664% from $1465 to $9742 per 1000 beneficiaries. Over this period, a significant shiftfrom daily to weekly bisphosphonates also occurred.Conclusions: A dramatic decline in HRT and continued rise in bisphosphonate prescribing has occurred sincethe publication of the WHI. During this time, there have also been substantial increases in osteoporosismedication spending within Medicaid. Determining whether these trends are clinically appropriate and costeffective for osteoporosis therapy will have important implications for the development of future drug reim-bursement programs, especially for elderly patients.J Bone Miner Res 2006;21:765–771. Published online on January 30, 2006; doi: 10.1359/JBMR.060119

Key words: estrogen, bisphosphonate, osteoporosis, Medicaid, women’s health

INTRODUCTION

OSTEOPOROSIS IS ASSOCIATED with significant morbidityand mortality and imposes a substantial economic

burden on the health care system.(1–3) Unfortunately, os-teoporosis therapy is often underused in high-risk pa-tients.(4,5)

Until the publication of the Women’s Health Initiative(WHI) in July 2002, hormone replacement therapy (HRT)

was a common pharmacologic approach to osteoporosistreatment in the United States.(6–10) The WHI showed thatHRT use increased the risk of breast cancer, cardiovasculardisease, and dementia, despite its benefit in osteoporosisprevention.(11) Accordingly, substantial reductions in HRTuse have been documented.(12–19)

Little is known about the reciprocal impact of the WHIand subsequent revisions to HRT recommendations(20,21)

on the use of other drug treatments for osteoporosis. Weanalyzed data from state Medicaid programs to evaluatethe effect of the WHI on trends in osteoporosis drug useand expenditure. We hypothesized that reductions in HRTuse should be accompanied by accelerated increases in the

Dr Solomon receives salary support from Merck and Proctor andGamble for unrelated activities. All other authors state that theyhave no conflicts of interest.

1Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and HarvardMedical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; 2Department of Medicine, Vancouver Hospital and Health Sciences Centre and Universityof British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 3Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’sHospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

JOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCHVolume 21, Number 5, 2006Published online on January 30, 2006; doi: 10.1359/JBMR.060119© 2006 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

765

JO510644 765 771 May

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use of other medications, most notably bisphosphonates.Because there is a marked cost difference between HRTand bisphosphonates,(22) these changes in practice patternsmay have profound economic implications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Sources of data

Our analysis used aggregate, state-level data on quarterlydrug use by Medicaid recipients. Medicaid, an Americanhealth insurance entitlement program that is jointly fundedby state and federal governments,(23) provides health careservices and prescription drug coverage for >16 millionwomen in the United States. In 2004, this represented ∼9%of American women(24) and one third of all low-incomewomen.(25) To qualify for Medicaid, a woman must earn<200% of the federal poverty level (approximately $15,000)and be either pregnant, a mother of a child <18 years of age,�65 years of age, or have a physical impairment.(24) Eightypercent of out-patient Medicaid prescription expendituresare for drugs consumed by enrollees �65 years of age andyounger persons with disabilities,(26) and overall, 71% ofMedicaid beneficiaries �65 years of age are women.(24)

Our data were provided by the Center for Medicare andMedicaid Services (CMS)(27) and included the total numberof prescriptions filled, total units of medication dispensed,and total Medicaid reimbursement for each medication.Data were available for 49 states and the District of Co-lumbia. No data were available for Arizona. The CMS data,grouped by National Drug Code (NDC), were linked to theNational Drug Data File to incorporate detailed informa-tion about drug strength, dose type (e.g., extended releasecapsule, tablet), and therapeutic class.(22) We also obtaineddata on the number and demographic characteristics ofMedicaid recipients.(28,29) No data about individual patientswere used in this analysis. This study was approved by theinstitutional review board of Brigham and Women’s Hos-pital.

Osteoporosis medication categories

We grouped osteoporosis medications into five catego-ries: HRT, bisphosphonates, calcium, calcitonin, and theselective estrogen receptor modifier (SERM) raloxifene.HRT includes oral, transdermal, and injectable forms ofestrogen alone and estrogen-progesterone combinationtherapies. Bisphosphonates include oral, intravenous, andinjectable forms of etidronate, alendronate, risedronate,and pamidronate. Both daily and weekly oral dosing ver-sions of alendronate and risedronate were included. Thecalcium category includes calcium supplements and calciumcarbonate. Synthetic forms of vitamin D, PTH, and proges-terone alone were excluded from our analysis. The numberof prescriptions was reported quarterly by category fromJanuary 1995 through July 2004. The beginning of the studyperiod was chosen to coincide with the first availability of adaily oral bisphosphonate.

Data analysis

Using the categories described above, we calculated thetotal number of prescriptions filled, units of medication dis-

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pensed, and dollar expenditure by Medicaid nationwide ineach calendar quarter for each category of medication. Toaccount for changes over time in the number of Medicaidbeneficiaries, we present medication use and spending per1000 beneficiaries. We calculated the quarterly and annualrates of change in each of these measures of prescribing.For the bisphosphonates, we performed similar calculationsto describe the total use of daily or weekly formulations ofthese agents.

We modeled the trends in use of HRT and bisphospho-nates using autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models, incorporating a ramp function to esti-mate the effect of the publication of the WHI results andreporting significance at the p < 0.05 level. Models withboth total prescriptions and total Medicaid spending as thedependent variable were developed. We controlled forchanges in the age distribution of the Medicaid populationby including the proportion of Medicaid beneficiaries whowere >65 years of age as an additional independent variablein the ARIMA models. Data on the total number of ben-eficiaries and number of elderly beneficiaries were avail-able on an annual basis. We used linear interpolation togenerate the quarter specific proportion of elderly benefi-ciaries. Statistical analyses were conducted using STATA,version 8.0 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA) andSAS software (version 8.0; SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA).

RESULTS

The number of Medicaid beneficiaries included in ouranalysis increased from 36.3 million in 1995 to 54.6 millionin 2004 (Table 1). During this time, the proportion of totalfemale Medicaid beneficiaries was ∼60% (63% of duallyeligible Medicaid/Medicare beneficiaries were female),whereas the percentage of beneficiaries �65 years of agedecreased from 11.6% to 9.3% between 1995 and 2004.

Trends in drug use

During the study period, the annual number of prescrip-tions for osteoporosis medications that were filled increased

from ∼2.9 to 10.6 million. This represents a rise from 79prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries in 1995 to 194 prescrip-tions per 1000 beneficiaries in 2004 (246%). Notably, totalosteoporosis drug use peaked in 2002 (208 prescriptions per1000 beneficiaries) and declined subsequently by 4.6% in2003 (199 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries) and a further2.6% in 2004 (194 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries).

Considerable differences in prescribing among osteopo-rosis medication categories were observed (Table 1). Be-fore the publication of the WHI, prescriptions dispensed forHRT had increased steadily, peaking at ∼5 million per year(136 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries) in 2002. After therelease of the WHI in July 2002, HRT prescribing declinedrapidly, representing a 57% reduction by mid-2004 to 59prescriptions written per 1000 beneficiaries (Fig. 1; p �

0.01). Prescribing rates for bisphosphonates rose approxi-mately in parallel with HRT prescriptions after the intro-duction of a daily oral formulation in 1995. Bisphosphonateprescribing rates have continued to steadily increase with-out any change in their rate of rise after publication of theWHI (p � 0.43).

Changes in the types of bisphosphonates prescribed dur-ing the study period were also observed. By 2001, bothalendronate and risedronate were made available in once-weekly oral formulations, and both versions rapidly rose inmarket share from 19% in 2001 to 88% by mid-2004. Re-ciprocally, the use of once-daily alendronate and risedro-nate sharply declined from ∼74% to 8% of market share.Etidronate and pamidronate were minimally prescribed be-tween 1991 and 2004. The rise in use of once-weekly oralbisphosphonates did not significantly change as a result ofthe WHI publication.

Slower rates of growth were observed for calcium, ral-oxifene, and calcitonin between 1995 and 2004 (Fig. 1). Cal-cium prescribing peaked at 31 prescriptions per 1000 ben-eficiaries in 2001, but the rate of growth of calciumprescribing has slowed to 3% in 2004 (37 prescriptions per1000 beneficiaries). Calcitonin prescribing peaked in 2001at 18 prescriptions per 1000 beneficiaries and has subse-

FIG. 1. Quarterly volume of Medicaid pre-scriptions for osteoporosis therapy by drugclass, January 1995 to July 2004. �, HRT; ◊,bisphosphonates; X, calcium; �, calcitonin;�, raloxifene.

EFFECT OF THE WHI ON OSTEOPOROSIS TREATMENT 767

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quently declined 27%. Raloxifene prescribing seems tohave peaked in 2003 (15 prescriptions per 1000 beneficia-ries).

Trends in drug expenditure

The annual expenditure on osteoporosis medications in-creased from approximately $53 to $532 million, represent-ing a 664% rise from $1465 to $9742 per 1000 beneficiaries.Trends in the cost of osteoporosis therapy are presented inTable 2. Steady increases in expenditure for each class ofmedications were observed before the publication of theWHI (Fig. 2). The publication of the WHI in July 2002 wasassociated with a rapid decline in HRT expenditure (p �0.0006) but had no effect on the rise in bisphosphonateexpenditures (p � 0.21). Bisphosphonate spending in-creased from $2540 per 1000 beneficiaries per year in 2001when once-weekly oral bisphosphonates were first madeavailable to $5400 per 1000 beneficiaries per year in 2004.

DISCUSSION

In the United States Medicaid program, we observedsubstantial reductions in HRT prescribing after the publi-cation of the WHI. These results are consistent with previ-ously published finding(12–19) and show a persistent declinein HRT use through 2004. We expected that decreased hor-mone therapy after the report of the WHI would have beenaccompanied by a reciprocal acceleration in the rate ofbisphosphonate prescribing, presumably because a propor-tion of those patients on HRT were benefiting from osteo-porosis protection. Although prescriptions for bisphospho-nates, raloxifene, and calcium did rise after the WHI, ourresults indicate that the publication of the WHI did notaugment their rate of increase. In addition, overall rates ofosteoporosis drug use may have declined slightly in the past2 years.

Nevertheless, we did observe an increase in the overallrate of bisphosphonate prescribing within our observationperiod and a significant shift since 2000 from once-dailybisphosphonates toward once-weekly formulations, pre-sumably based on the assumption that less frequent admin-istration of an ongoing medication may improve patientcompliance.(30) This overall increase in medication use, ifappropriate, is likely cost-saving to the health care systembecause of avoided fractures and their complications.(31–34)

However, whether the rate of bisphosphonate prescribingeffectively compensates for decreases in HRT use is un-clear.

The striking rise in drug expenditures that we observedhighlights the concern that certain bisphosphonate formu-lations can be cost-prohibitive drug choices when absoluterisk reduction and compliance are considered.(35,36) Thesetrends likely represent the natural result of removing HRTas a choice in the pharmacological armamentarium for os-teoporosis treatment and provide insight into the conse-quences of eliminating a member of a therapeutic class onrates of use and expenditures for other drugs within theclass. For example, the recent withdrawal of rofecoxib andvaldecoxib could lead to reductions in expenditures of os-

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UDELL ET AL.768

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teoarthritis therapy through the greater use of acetamino-phen and nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatorydrugs, assuming that there are no changes in rates of use ofgastroprotective agents.

Osteoporosis therapy expenditure trends may strain thesustainability of drug insurance programs for the elderly, inparticular those that are publicly funded. The increasingnumber of eligible Medicaid recipients(29) and the imple-mentation of the new Medicare Part D drug benefit pro-gram(37) may add to the challenge. Therefore, cost-containment strategies that include rational policies forosteoporosis drug use, such as the recently announced de-cision to use preferred drug lists within the new Medicaredrug benefit program,(37) should be further considered.

Reported trends in HRT use within the largest U.S.health insurer(23) are consistent with findings among inter-national public health insurance programs. Within a year ofthe WHI publication, significant HRT declines of 30–60%were shown within Canada,(12) New Zealand,(14) Austra-lia,(16) Chile,(17) Hong Kong,(18) and Israel.(19) Two of thesestudies were large provincial cohorts(12,18) that analyzedHRT use over time and as a function of age, although nei-ther compared trends in HRT use in the context of otherosteoporosis medication. Analyses of nationally represen-tative U.S. databases detailing retail prescribing and physi-cian office visits for HRT and osteoporosis treatment foundthat HRT use for osteoporosis treatment began to declineafter bisphosphonates were introduced in 1994(38) and thatHRT use overall declined 38% in the first year after pub-lication of the WHI.(15) Qualitatively, our data suggest thattotal HRT use decelerated at a slower pace and later datewithin Medicaid; however, overall trends are consistentwith earlier analyses.

There may have been other historical events that influ-enced the use of osteoporosis therapy, such as broadeningof osteoporosis screening. For example, the Bone MassMeasurement Act of July 1, 1998,(39) mandated reimburse-ment coverage for BMD screening within Medicare, thefederal health insurance program for those �65 years ofage. In contrast, we studied patients enrolled in Medicaid,

which is regulated on a state-by-state basis. As a conse-quence, there is some variation across the program withrespect to BMD testing regulations,(40) and only 14 stateshave a policy mandating private insurance coverage screen-ing for osteoporosis similar to the Bone Mass MeasurementAct.(40)

The use of Medicaid data to describe osteoporosistherapy patterns has certain limitations. No data about in-dividual patients were used in this analysis; hence, our datadescribe aggregate out-patient medication use only. Pre-scription use cannot be specifically linked to individualclinical characteristics, particularly age or sex, and thus wecannot present stratum specific use rates nor can we disen-tangle whether there were changes in the proportion ofpatients that were receiving both HRT and bisphospho-nates before compared with after the publication of theWHI. Therefore, whereas our results are suggestive, we arelimited in our ability to comment on whether the observedtrends are clinically appropriate. In addition, we cannot ad-just for variability in individual consumption or distinguishbetween medication use for other indications, particularlyestrogen use for menopausal symptoms. However, ∼38% ofpostmenopausal women in the United States used HRT tomanage symptoms of menopause by the end of the 1990s,and the potential preventive effects of HRT on osteoporo-sis and cardiovascular outcomes were increasingly a consid-eration for its continuation.(10)

Our study was limited to Medicaid beneficiaries, which islargely composed of low-income women,(24–26,28,29) onefifth of whom are �65 years of age. Low-income women arereported to use HRT less frequently for menopausal symp-tom relief than other American women.(10,41,42) As a result,their use of HRT for osteoporosis therapy may differslightly from those of other elderly American women.

Finally, the apparent lag in calcium use as an adjunct toother appropriate osteoporosis prescribing may be an arti-fact of our inability to evaluate nonprescription calciumuse. That said, if Medicaid calcium coverage policies haveremained constant over the study period, presumably this

FIG. 2. Quarterly Medicaid spending onosteoporosis therapy by drug class, January1995 to July 2004. �, HRT; ◊, bisphospho-nates; X, calcium; �, calcitonin; �, raloxif-ene.

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under-reporting bias should have remained constant aswell,(38) and therefore, it is possible that calcium is beingunderused.

In summary, because publication of the WHI made clearthat HRT was not ideal pharmacotherapy for osteoporosis,a dramatic decline in its use has occurred within Medicaid.In contrast, the WHI did not augment the steady rate of risein bisphosphonate prescribing. Nevertheless, substantial in-creases in spending on osteoporosis medication have alsooccurred. This trend has had an unintended, and perhapsunavoidable, impact on medication spending by state Med-icaid programs as more costly forms of osteoporosis medi-cation are used. Whether this trend in drug use compen-sates postmenopausal women at risk for osteoporoticfracture is unclear. Future research and policy planningshould consider trends in drug use and total expenditureswhen developing osteoporosis therapy strategies for pa-tients and drug-reimbursement programs, especially for el-derly patients.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Dr Choudhry had full access to all of the data in the studyand takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and theaccuracy of the data analysis. Dr Udell was supported by aCanada-United States Fulbright Fellowship. Dr Solomonwas supported by National Institutes of Health GrantK23AR48616. The Fulbright Program and National Insti-tutes of Health had no involvement in the design and con-duct of the study; collection, management, analysis, andinterpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or ap-proval of the manuscript.

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Address reprint requests to:Niteesh K Choudhry, MD, PhD

Division of Pharmacoepidemiology andPharmacoeconomics

Brigham and Women’s HospitalHarvard Medical School

1620 Tremont Street, Suite 3030Boston, MA 02120, USA

E-mail: [email protected]

Received in original form October 22, 2005; revised form January17, 2006; accepted January 26, 2006.

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