Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the

Yakima River Basin.

Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research PhysiologistUSGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory

Cook, Washington

Alec Maule – Project ManagerDeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate ChangeMark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical modelsJim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSSMatt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – BioenergeticsPat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survivalJessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — SociologistLynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – EconomistChris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima) - Water management (RiverWare)David Graves — Tributary Water Temps

Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

Habitat Physical Population Community

Bioenergetics

Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin

Social & Economic analyses

Yakima River Eastern Washington State

6200 mi²

100 in / yr

6 in / yr

Change Scenarios

Early2020-2030

Base1981 -2005

Mid20402050

WatershedModel

RiverWare

TemperatureModel

HydrodynamicModel

GISModeling

Habitat maps

Habitat DSS

Climate Change in the Yakima

Bovee et al. 2008

Mastin 2008

Bureau of Reclamation

Change Scenarios

Early2020-2030

Base1988 -2006

Mid20402050

WatershedModel

RiverWare

TemperatureModels

HydrodynamicModel

GISModeling

Habitat maps

Habitat DSS

Bioenergetics Model

Growth, Development

Migration, Reproduction

Cohort Survival Model

(Population)

Interactions(Community)

Global Climate Change Decision Support System

Social & EconomicAnalyses

Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants

Habitat Physical Population Community

Bioenergetics

Decision Analysis (DA)

Social & Economic Analyses

DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees

Results: • Shifted species of concern -- steelhead• Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river• Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission• Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin

Irrigation DistrictsLocal elected officials

Fed, State & Tribal F &WFed & State Water Managers

Stakeholders’ WorkshopConceptual Model

Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin

Sunnyside Diversion Dam

Gap

Wapato

Changes in Habitat Area by Reach

Baseline & Future Hydrographs

0

1000

2000

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7000

8000

1-Jan

1-Feb

1-Mar

1-Apr

1-May

1-Jun 1-Jul

1-Aug

1-Sep

1-Oct

1-Nov

1-Dec

NA

P1

P2

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1000

2000

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8000

NA

P1

P2

Gap Wapato

Baseflow

Coho salmon fry rearing

Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates

GapWapato

Coho Fry Habitat (hectares)

Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Current 2020-2029 2040-2049

Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato,Higher in Gap

Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)

Sensitivity AnalysisDecrease in flows; flow higher in Gap,

lower in Wapato

Gap Wapato

Current Regulation

Current Regulation

“Flip-Flop”Water Flows

“Flip-Flop”Water Flows

Different Geomorphology

Habitat Physical Population Community

Bioenergetics

Social & Economic Analyses

1. Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model2. Mainstem temperature modeling3. Tributary temperature modeling4. Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and

Chinook salmon5. Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific

habitat6. Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of

the Yakama Tribe

Chapters

Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems

Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science

Center

Katie Swan, InternYakama Nation

Tribal Well-Being

Tribal Well-Being

Questions?

Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin